How to Conduct a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment Introduction Typical Post-Disaster Stages and Activities Typical Post-Disaster Stages and Activities Emergency Stage Humanitarian Assistance Recovery Stage Rehabilitation of Essential Services, Livelihoods and Production Reconstruction Stage Rebuilding Destroyed Physical Assets DISASTER 19/10/2009 3 Two Strands of Assessment Human Early Recovery Needs Assessment (ERNA) Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) Human and CommunityCommunity based Early Recovery Needs Disaster Impact Assessment at Macro-Economic and Household Levels, and Estimation of Needs for Recovery, Reconstruction and Risk Reduction 19/10/2009 5 The Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology (DaLA) For Estimation of Disaster Impact and Needs for Recovery and Reconstruction The ECLAC Methodology Methodology developed in the Latin America and Caribbean Region, and used and refined since 1972 Adapted for use in other regions of the World Utilized by the WB in several major disasters in recent years www.eclac.org/mexico/documents www.gfdrr.org 19/10/2009 7 The ECLAC Methodology: A Summary of Features • A stock-flow conceptual model that measures destruction to assets and changes or losses in economic flows • Makes use of the national accounting system • Sector by sector assessment of disaster effects (a “bottom up” approach) • Aggregation of standardized sectoral results to ascertain overall disaster effects • Enables the analysis of disaster impact on production and growth, on personal income and on the environment New: Losses Spanish English French Japanese Arabic* Bahasa** 19/10/2009 9 Definition of Disaster Effects Immediate Effects DAMAGE • Destruction of physical assets • Occur at time of natural event • Measured in physical units, and at replacement value 19/10/2009 Medium Term Effects LOSSES • Changes in economic flows • Occur for a relative long time period • Expressed in current values 10 Typical Damage and Losses Damage Housing and household goods Hospital and schools, and contents Agriculture lands and irrigation systems Roads and bridges Ports and airports Water supply systems Electrical systems 19/10/2009 Losses Production losses in agriculture, fishery, livestock, industry, commerce, tourism Higher operational costs and lower revenues in electricity, water supply and transport Cost of humanitarian activities in emergency stage 11 The Timing of Disaster Effects Damage Full Reconstruction and Economic Recovery 5 yrs Losses Time, months 19/10/2009 12 Uses of the Assessment of Damage, Losses and Needs Why we need and assessment Objectives of Assessment 1. To obtain a quantitative estimation of the value of destruction or damage to assets and of changes or losses in economic flows due to the disaster 2. To identify the possible impact of the disaster on the overall functioning or performance of the economy of the affected country or area, and also on individual persons or on households 19/10/2009 16 Objectives of Assessment.. 3. To identify the capacity of the State to undertake on its own all recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk management programs and activities 4. To ascertain whether international assistance should be provided, its scope and timeframe 5. To identify specific public sector interventions at the State or lower levels to be undertaken in the short, medium and long term to ensure recovery and reconstruction 19/10/2009 17 Objectives of Assessment... 6. To estimate financial, technical and human resource requirements or needs to implement the agreed upon programs of recovery, reconstruction and risk management, duly broken down into actions at the Central, State, Provincial, District or Community levels 19/10/2009 18 Typical Results of Selected, Recent Assessments Namibia Floods 2009: Summary of DaLA 19/10/2009 20 Namibia Floods 2009: Total Damage versus Losses More destruction of physical assets than Losses in flows of the economy 19/10/2009 21 Namibia Floods 2009: Ownership of Destroyed Assets Private sector sustained more destruction of assets 19/10/2009 22 Namibia Floods 2009: Sector Distribution of Damage A socio-productive disaster; rather than destruction of infrastructure 19/10/2009 24 Namibia Floods 2009: Sector Distribution of DaLA Environment Water Sanitation Electricity Transport Tourism Trade Manufacture Agriculture Education Health Housing 0 100 200 300 400 500 Million N$ Damage 19/10/2009 Losses 25 Namibia Floods 2009: Geographical Distribution of Disaster Effects Caprivi Kavango Omusati Oshana Oshikoto Ohangwena 19/10/2009 0 100 200 300 Million Namibian $ 400 500 26 Damage by Region 2008 Cyclone Season Madagascar 19/10/2009 28 Swine Flu Pandemic in Mexico: Minor Impact on GDP Growth 6 Crecimiento anual del PIB, % 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -2 -4 -6 Gap: - 0.7% -8 19/10/2009 Sin Pandemia Post-Pandemia 29 Swine Flu Pandemic in Mexico 2009: Other Macro-Economic Impacts Fiscal Sector • Unforeseen expenditures M$14,200 million • Lower tax revenues M$ 14,000 million • Higher deficit M$ 28,200 million 19/10/2009 External Sector • Lower exports (M$ 39,600 million) in – – – – Tourism Air transport Lower sales at border towns Lower foreign tourist expenditures – Lower swine meat exports • Higher imports on equipment and supplies (M$100 million) 30 Swine Flu Pandemic in Mexico 2009: Losses of Employment 60,000 Employment Losses 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Comercio 19/10/2009 Restaurantes Hombres Mujeres Turismo 31 Swine Flu Pandemic in Mexico 2009: Aggravation of Poverty # Families falling below poverty level Sector of Economic Activity Transport Electricity Livestock Trade and entertainment Restaurants Tourism Total By Household Household-Head Gender Men Women 110 0 9 602 2 0 0 42,228 0 43,009 37,686 52,186 0 89,877 531,544 Persons 19/10/2009 34 2008 Cyclone Season in Haiti Geographical Distribution of Employment Losses 4March09 RJovel 36 Namibia Floods 2009; Recovery and Reconstruction Needs. Namibia Floods 2009: Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Typical Assessment Process Scope of Assessment The assessment should cover the entire area affected by the disaster and broken down by geo-political divisions All sectors of economic activity that may have sustained negative or positive disaster effects must be covered List of sectors to be assessed is defined on basis of economic activities included in country´s system of national accounts 19/10/2009 42 Philippines: Sectors of Economic Activity # Sectors of Economic Activities 1 Agriculture and Forestry 2 Fishing 3 Mining and Quarrying 4 Manufacturing 5 Electricity, Gas and Water 6 Construction 7 Wholesale and Retail Trade 8 Hotels and Restaurants 9 Transportation, Storage and Communications 10 Financial Intermediation 11 Real Estate, Renting and Business 12 Private Education 13 Health and Social Work 14 Other Services 19/10/2009 Source: National Statistical Office: www.census.gov.ph 44 Summary of Assessment Process Damage + Losses • Sector by Sector • Aggregation of Total Effects Impact Assessment • Macro-economic • Personal/Household • Poverty Estimation of Needs • Recovery • Reconstruction • Risk Reduction 19/10/2009 45 Schedule of Assessment in Philippines MON TUE October 19 WED 20 THU 21 FRI 22 SAT 23 24 DaLA Training Baseline Data Collection 26 27 28 29 30 31 6 7 13 14 Field Survey and Field Data Gathering November 2 3 4 5 DaLA Estimation Impact Assessment 9 10 11 12 Estimation of Needs Assessment Report Writing 19/10/2009 46 Thank You !!