Sample Midterm Answer Key Econ 133, UCSC Part I: Multiple Choice Please circle your answers! 1. You sold short 100 shares of common stock at $30 per share. The initial margin is 60%. Your initial investment was __________. A) $1,200 B) $1,500 C) $1,800 D) $3,000 2. A __________ gives its holder the right to buy an asset for a specified exercise price on or before a specified expiration date. A) call option B) futures contract C) put option D) none of the above 3. If you purchase a stock for $50, receive dividends of $2, and sell the stock at the end of the year for $55, what is your holding period return? A) 5% B) 10% C) 14% D) 18% 4. You short-sell 200 shares of Tuckerton Trading Co., now selling for $50 per share. What is your maximum possible gain ignoring transactions cost? A) $50 B) $150 C) $10,000 D) unlimited 5. The bid-ask spread exists because of A) market inefficiencies B) poor communication C) the need for dealers to cover expenses and make a modest profit D) none of the above 6. Assume that you have recently purchased 100 shares in an investment company. Upon examining the balance sheet, you note the firm is reporting $225 million in assets, $30 million in liabilities, and 10 million shares outstanding. What is the Net Asset Value (NAV) of these shares? A) $25.50 B) $22.50 C) $19.50 D) $1.95 Part II: Longer Answers 1. (26 points) On January 1, you sold short one round lot (i.e. 100 shares) of Zenith stock at $40 per share. The initial margin requirement was 50% and the maintenance margin is 30%. The margin account pays no interest. On March 1, Zenith paid a dividend of $2 per share. On April 1, the share price rises suddenly to $45 at the opening of trading. a) (5 points) List all assets and liabilities. What is the remaining margin (equity) in the account on April 1 (in dollars)? EquityJanuary = Initial %margin x sale proceeds = 50% x $4,000 = $2,000 = Initial margin Assets Sale proceeds Initial margin 4,000 2,000 Total assets 6,000 Liabilities and Equity 4,500 Value of shares owed 200 Dividends owed 1,300 Equity 6,000 Total liabilities and equity EquityApril = 4,000 + 2,000– 4,500 – 200 = 1,300 b) (6 points) What is the percentage margin? Do you receive a margin call? Percentage margin = Equity/Value of shares owed = 1,300/4,500 = 28.9% Yes, I receive a margin call from the broker. c) (5 points) What is the minimum price for the broker to issue a margin call? Equity 6000 − 100P − 200 = Value of shares owed 100P P = 44.62 30% = If the price rises to $44.62 or more, the broker issues a margin call. d) (5 points) If you cover the short sale on April 1 after the price increase, what is your rate of return (HPR)? HPR = (EquityApril-EquityJanuary)/EquityJanuary = (1,300 – 2,000)/2000= -35% e) (5 points) What is your EAR? EAR = (1-35%)4-1 = -82% 2. (10 points) You have just purchased a corporate bond that has a coupon rate of 10% and a maturity of 4 years. The yield to maturity on the bond is 8%. a) (2 points) What is the current price of the bond? P0 = 50 ⎡ 1 ⎤ 1000 = $1,067.33 1− + ⎢ 0.04 ⎣ (1.04)8 ⎥⎦ (1.04)8 b) (3 points) If interest rates increase from 8% to 8.2% one year from now and coupons are not reinvested, what would be the 1-year holding period rate of return on the bond? P1 = 50 ⎡ 1 ⎤ 1000 = $1,047.03 1− + 6 ⎥ ⎢ 0.041 ⎣ (1.041) ⎦ (1.041) 6 HPR = Coupon Payment + Capital Gains = 100 + (1,047.03 – 1,067.33) = 7.47% Initial Bond Price 1,067.33 c) (3 points) If yields stay at 8.2% for the remaining 3 years and coupons are reinvested, what is the effective annual return on this bond over the 4-year period? Period CF YTM FV 0 -1,067.33 1 50 66.18 2 50 4% 63.63 3 50 4.10% 61.13 4 50 4.10% 58.72 5 50 4.10% 56.41 6 50 4.10% 54.18 7 50 4.10% 52.05 8 1,050 4.10% 1,050.00 Sum 1,462.29 HPR = 1,462.29/1067.33 -1 = 37.01% EAR = 1.37011/4-1 = 8.19% d) (2 points) A different bond has a coupon rate of 7%, one year to maturity, and its price is quoted as 100.19. What is its yield to maturity? We need to find the period rate r that solves 1,001.90 = 35/1+r + 1035/(1+r)2 We can use trial and error, or use the quadratic formula for x2 + ax + b =0 Let x = (1+r) óx2 - 35/1,001.9 x- 1035/1,001.9=0 x=-a/2 ±(a2/4 -b)0.5 = 1.747% ± 1.01653 = 1.03400 = 1+r r=3.4% => YTM = 6.8% 3. (15 points) Assume that the S&P 500 tracks only the following 3 stocks. Stock B just had an SEO. Price, Feb. 8 Shares, Feb. 8 Price, Feb. 9 Shares, Feb. 9 Stock A 60 10 million 52 10 million Stock B 80 20 million 70 30 million Stock C 30 50 million 31 50 million a) (5 points) What is the index return from Feb. 8 to Feb. 9? Index level on Feb. 8 = (60 * 10 + 80 * 20 + 30 * 50)/(10+20+50) = 46.25 Index level on Feb. 9 = (52 * 10 + 70 * 30 + 31 * 50)/(10+30+50) = 46.33 HPR = 46.33/46.25 -1 = 0.173% b) (5 points) What's the EAR? EAR = (1+0.173%)365-1 = 87.91% c) (5 points) If inflation were 1% per month, what would be the real annualized return? EAR = 1.0112-1 = 12.68% Fisher equation: real rate = 1.8791/1.1268 -1 = 66.7% 4. (15 points) The table below shows the S&P 500 for the last 5 years. Adj Date Close HPR Deviation Squared 1/3/2011 1271.87 18.44% 15.12% 0.022867 1/4/2010 1073.87 30.03% 26.71% 0.07135 1/2/2009 825.88 40.09% -43.41% 0.188414 1/2/2008 1378.55 -4.15% -7.47% 0.005574 1/3/2007 1438.24 12.36% 9.04% 0.008171 1/3/2006 1280.08 -Sum 0.296377 a. (5 points) Calculate the HPRs HPR = Closet/Closet-1 -1 (see table) b. (5 points) What are the arithmetic average and geometric average rates of return? ra = 3.32% 1280.08 (1+rg)5= 1271.87 rg=(1271.87/1280.08)1/5-1 = -0.13% rg is also called the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) in this context c. (5 points) What is the standard deviation of returns? SD = (sum of squared deviation / n-1)1/2 = (0.296377 / 4)0.5 = 27.22% d. (5 points) If the past is a good guide to the future, what level do you expect the index to reach on 1/3/2012 and on 1/3/2021? E(Index)1/3/2012= 1271.87 * (1+ra) = 1,314 E(Index)1/3/2021= 1271.87 * (1+rg)10 = 1,256
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