User Manual Alberta CO2 Purity Project Techno-Economic Model
PTAC/ICO2N User Manual Alberta CO2 Purity Project Techno-Economic Model 3077074-01327 – EN-REP-0001 28 August 2014 WorleyParsons Canada Suite 500, 151 Canada Olympic Rd SW Calgary, AB T3B 6B7 CANADA Phone: +1 403 247 0200 Toll-Free: 1 800 668 6772 Facsimile: +1 403 247 4811 www.worleyparsons.com © Copyright 2014 WorleyParsons PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL SYNOPSIS This document describes how to run the Alberta CO2 Purity Project Techno-economic Model (TEM) which was developed by WorleyParsons Canada for the ICO2N Group of Canadian Companies with funding from PTAC. The model is in the form of a GoldSim dashboard which allows the user to change the set of inputs for a CCS system such as (but not limited to): • CO2 volume captured; • types of industrial plants from which CO2 is captured; • pipeline length and pressure drop; and • fraction of CO2 sequestered (as opposed to that used for EOR). For each set of inputs, a set of cost outputs is calculated comprising the following subsystems: • capture & compression; • transportation by pipeline; • enhanced oil recovery; and • geological sequestration. The results are displayed graphically by the TEM in terms of probability distribution functions which define a range of possible costs and the associated likelihood of each cost value in the range. In addition mean cost values and other metrics such as standard deviation and percentile values are displayed. Both probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) are shown PROJECT 3077074-01327 - USER MANUAL REV DESCRIPTION A Issued for review ORIG REVIEW WORLEY – PARSONS APPROVAL A. McGoey-Smith J. Beckers A. Approver DATE CLIENT APPROVAL DATE 28-Aug-14 U:\CAL\GBS\307074-01327\13.0 Final Model\Deliverables\307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx Document No. EN-REP-0001 Page i as graphics. The model also allows specific percentile cost values to be shown as well as percentile values for an input cost value which are useful in system planning and design. Page ii 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL Disclaimer The information presented in this document was compiled and interpreted exclusively for the purposes stated in Section 1 of the document. WorleyParsons provided this report for PTAC/ICO2N solely for the purpose noted above. WorleyParsons has exercised reasonable skill, care, and diligence to assess the information acquired during the preparation of this report, but makes no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. The information contained in this report is based upon, and limited by, the circumstances and conditions acknowledged herein, and upon information available at the time of its preparation. The information provided by others is believed to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed. WorleyParsons does not accept any responsibility for the use of this report for any purpose other than that stated in Section 1 and does not accept responsibility to any third party for the use in whole or in part of the contents of this report. Any alternative use, including that by a third party, or any reliance on, or decisions based on this document, is the responsibility of the alternative user or third party. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of WorleyParsons. Any questions concerning the information or its interpretation should be directed to A. McGoey-Smith or J. Beckers. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page iii PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 2. PRINCIPAL INPUTS AND OUTPUTS OF THE TE MODEL .............................................. 2 2.1 Inputs: ...................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Principal Outputs: ..................................................................................................... 3 3. DOWNLOADING THE GOLDSIM PLAYER ....................................................................... 8 4. OPENING, RUNNING THE TE MODEL AND VIEWING RESULTS................................ 10 5. REVIEW OF TEM INPUTS ............................................................................................... 15 5.1 Capture Inputs ........................................................................................................ 15 5.2 Pipeline Inputs ........................................................................................................ 15 5.3 EOR Inputs ............................................................................................................. 16 5.4 Sequestration Inputs .............................................................................................. 17 6. REVIEW OF TEM OUTPUTS ........................................................................................... 18 7. SAMPLE COST SCENARIOS .......................................................................................... 22 8. CLOSURE ........................................................................................................................ 23 Tables within Text TABLE A TABLE OF MONTE CARLO REALIZATION VALUES FOR ALL IMPURE COSTS ................................................................................................................. 20 Figures within Text FIGURE A GOLDSIM PLAYER FILE ICON........................................................................... 10 FIGURE B GOLDSIM RUN CONTROLLER SHOWING MODE ........................................... 10 FIGURE C CONVERSION BETWEEN THE TWO MODELLING MODES ............................ 11 FIGURE D ENTIRE TEM DASHBOARD ............................................................................... 11 FIGURE E MAIN RESULTS DASHBOARD ........................................................................... 12 FIGURE F DISPLAYING A RESULTS BOX WHEN IN EDIT MODE .................................... 12 FIGURE G RESULTS BOX WHEN THE TEM IS IN RESULTS MODE ................................ 13 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page v FIGURE H VIEW A PLOT OF A RESULTS BOX .................................................................. 13 FIGURE I RESULTS PLOT .................................................................................................. 14 FIGURE J EDIT PROPERTIES ICON FOR RESULTS PLOT.............................................. 14 FIGURE K CAPTURE COST SCALING DASHBOARD ........................................................ 16 FIGURE L HOW TO ACCESS RESULTS FROM THE MAIN INPUTS DASHBOARD ........ 18 FIGURE M MAIN RESULTS DASHBOARD .......................................................................... 18 FIGURE N RESULTS BOXES FOR PURE AND IMPURE COMBINED CAPTURE STREAMS ............................................................................................................ 19 FIGURE O PIPELINE RESULTS DASHBOARD ................................................................... 20 FIGURE P EOR RESULTS DASHBOARD............................................................................ 21 FIGURE Q SEQUESTRATION RESULTS DASHBOARD .................................................... 21 FIGURE R RESULTS BOXES FOR CAPTURE FOR PURE AND IMPURE CO2 CASES IN PDF VIEW ....................................................................................................... 22 FIGURE S RESULTS BOXES FOR OVERALL COSTS IN CDF VIEW FOR PURE AND IMPURE CO2. ...................................................................................................... 22 Appendices APPENDIX 1 Page vi STRUCTURE OF THE GOLDSIM SOFTWARE 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL 1. INTRODUCTION Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) has been identified by the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013) as the most realistic method for mitigating against the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide from anthropogenic sources. It involves capturing gaseous CO2 at industrial sources and compressing it to the supercritical state, transporting via pipeline to sinks where it can be either used for enhanced oil recovery or be sequestered. The western Canadian Sedimentary Basin contains rock formations which are particularly suitable for CO2 sequestration and are also relatively close to major sources of CO2 such as the Alberta Oil Sands and the Alberta industrial heartland. A significant risk to implementing Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in Canada and around the world is the cost of CCS development and operation. Moreover this cost is known to increase with the presence of impurities in the captured CO2 stream. Unlike CO2 used for enhanced oil recovery in the US Southwest, which is relatively pure and comes from natural sources, sources of CO2 in Alberta which will be either sequestered or used for EOR, will come from industrial processes and are relatively impure. This document describes how to run the Techno-economic Model for the Alberta CO2 Purity Project (TE model) developed for the ICO2N Group of Canadian Companies. The model is in the form of a GoldSim dashboard. To run the model it is necessary to obtain a copy of the GoldSim player software which is available from GoldSim Technology Group LLC as a free download. The ACPP TE model calculates the cost of developing a CCS system in Canada for: • Capture & Compression; • Transportation By Pipeline; • Enhanced Oil Recovery; • Geological Sequestration; and • Total Cost. System parameters are input to the TE model by the user. The model performs cost calculations for a CCS system as a function of the CO2 annual capture rate from combinations of 6 different capture sources. The results are displayed as output graphics by the TE model and can be also extracted and plotted off-line too. The TE model is probabilistic because of the large uncertainties involved in CCS development. Therefore the results take the form of probability distribution functions. The results are displayed using graphics and can also be copied and extracted for plotting using external software such as Microsoft Excel too. A summary of the principal inputs and outputs of the model are shown in the next section. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 1 2. PRINCIP AL INPUTS AND OUTPUTS OF THE TE MODEL The inputs and principal outputs are summarized below: 2.1 • Inputs: Capture − Capture Rate for each capture plant type in megatonne/yr. Six different types of capture plants are available to choose from: o o o o o o • Heavy Post Combustion; Heavy IGCC; Heavy Oxy Partial Shift; Gas SMR; Gas Oxy; and Gas Processing Plant. Pipeline − initial pressure at the capture plant output in psi; − final pressure at the EOR or Sequestration facility in psi; − pipeline length for the trunk line in km; and − pipeline temperature at the midpoint in ºF. • Fraction Sequestered (as opposed to fraction used for EOR) in % • Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) • Page 2 − Maximum Miscible Pressure (MMP) in psi; and − NPV of a barrel of oil recovered during EOR in $US. Sequestration − deep or shallow injection; − formation properties comprising; − CO2 density in the formation in kg/m ; and − injection well radius in m. 3 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL 2.2 • Principal Outputs: Capture Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values). Pure Capture Cost (PDF) • Impure Capture Cost (PDF) Capture Cost in Table Form Pure Capture Cost Impure Capture Cost Number of Samples 10000 Number of Samples 10000 Mean 49.225 Mean 54.849 5% Conf. Bound 49.069 5% Conf. Bound 54.778 95% Conf. Bound 49.381 95% Conf. Bound 54.919 Standard Deviation 9.4912 Standard Deviation 4.2776 Skewness 0.52191 Skewness 0.34532 Kurtosis -0.62936 Kurtosis -0.25726 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 3 • Pipeline Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values) Pure Capture Cost (PDF) • Impure Capture Cost (PDF) Pipeline Cost in Table Form Pure Pipeline Cost Number of Samples Mean 5% Conf. Bound 95% Conf. Bound Standard Deviation Skewness Kurtosis • 10000 0.090303 0.090181 0.090425 0.007425 -0.0070329 -0.59419 Number of Samples Mean 5% Conf. Bound 95% Conf. Bound Standard Deviation Skewness Kurtosis 10000 0.095926 0.095798 0.096054 0.0077996 0.0053884 -0.59274 Principal Outputs − EOR Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values) Pure EOR Cost (Recovery) Page 4 Impure Pipeline Cost Impure EOR Cost (Recovery) 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL − EOR Cost in Table Form Pure EOR Cost (Recovery) Impure EOR Cost (Recovery) Number of Samples 10000 Number of Samples 10000 Mean -14.934 Mean -14.168 5% Conf. Bound -14.974 5% Conf. Bound -14.206 95% Conf. Bound -14.894 95% Conf. Bound -14.13 Standard Deviation 2.43 Standard Deviation 2.3055 Skewness -0.59264 Skewness -0.59242 Kurtosis 0.23033 Kurtosis 0.22986 − Sequestration Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values) Pure Sequestration Cost 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Impure Sequestration Cost Page 5 • Principal Outputs − Sequestration Cost in Table Form Pure Sequestration Cost Number of Samples 10000 Number of Samples 5% Conf. Bound 0.42274 5% Conf. Bound 0.61508 95% Conf. Bound 0.42654 95% Conf. Bound 0.62102 Standard Deviation 0.11543 Standard Deviation 0.18058 Skewness 0.4404 Skewness 0.45751 Kurtosis -0.26258 Kurtosis -0.27907 Overall Mean Costs in Histogram Plot form Overall Mean Cost Pure − Overall Mean Cost Impure Overall Mean Costs in Table form Overall Mean Cost Pure Page 6 10000 Mean 0.61805 Mean 0.42464 − Impure Sequestration Cost Overall Mean Cost Impure Capture 49.286 Capture 54.781 Pipeline 0.090147 Pipeline 0.095817 EOR 14.832 EOR 14.071 Sequestration 0.07018 Sequestration 0.61629 Total 34.968 Total 40.468 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL • Principal Outputs − Overall Cost in Histogram Form (Log cost scale for comparison between components) Overall Mean Cost Pure 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Overall Mean Cost Impure Page 7 3. DOWNLO ADING THE GOLDSIM PLAYER Unless the user has access to the GoldSim modelling environment, it is necessary to use GoldSim Player to open the TE Model. The GoldSim Player may be accessed as a free download using the following steps: a) Goto GoldSim website at: www.goldsim.com and Click on Downloads (circled in red) b) Click on GoldSim Player Page 8 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL c) Fill out contact information and click Request GoldSim Player d) Request Current Version of GoldSim Player GoldSim Player Version 11.1 The most recent version of the GoldSim Player is available for download below. File Comments GoldSim Player Version 11.1 Installation file for the latest version (11.1) of the GoldSim Player. Installation File (June 3, 2014) e) Click Save and save in a directory which you specify f) Click start icon and GoldSim Player 11.1 from pop up menu 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 (55 MB) Page 9 4. OPENING, RUNNING THE TE MODEL AND VIEWING RESULTS The TEM is opened by double-clicking on the executable file ACPP Overall TE Model v9.25.gsp. The extension .gsp means that the executable file is a GoldSim Player file. The executable file icon is shown in Figure A. Figure A GoldSim Player File Icon ACPP Overall TE Model v9.25.gsp When the executable file is opened up, the input dashboard pops up. Also the GoldSim run controller appears which is shown in Figure B. The run controller allows the model to be in two states: Edit mode and Results mode. When the run controller is in edit mode, the status icon is red and when the run controller is results mode, the status icon is green. Figure B GoldSim Run Controller showing Mode Run Controller in Edit Mode Run Controller in Results Mode When the TEM is in edit mode, the model inputs can be changed. When the TEM is on results mode, results can be viewed. When in results mode, to convert back to edit mode, click on the Reset Simulation button show in the LHS of Figure C. Similarly to run the TEM as a full probabilistic simulation (recommended), click on the Run Simulation button shown in the RHS of Figure C. Page 10 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL Figure C Conversion between the two modelling modes Convert from Results Mode to Edit Mode Convert from Edit Mode to Results Mode We now show how to run a specific modelling scenario. The entire TEM dashboard in edit mode is shown in Figure D. Figure D Entire TEM Dashboard To try to examine some results when still in edit mode, we can first click on the Go To to Main Results Dashboard button shown in Figure E. Then if we click on one of the show results buttons, say Capture, then we observe an error message as per the box shown in Figure F. Note all results boxes display this error message when the TEM is in edit mode. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 11 Figure E Main Results Dashboard Figure F Displaying a results box when in Edit mode We now systematically review all inputs starting with Capture, then proceeding through Pipeline, EOR and finally Sequestration. The same results box (Capture Cost for an Impure CO2 stream) shown in Figure G. This pertains to an input scenario as shown in Figure D with 10,000 Monte Carlo realizations. Each Monte Carlo realization is a snapshot of the possible state of the system which is sampled from the set of uncertain inputs. Page 12 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL Figure G Results box when the TEM is in Results Mode The properties of the results are given in the results box as described in Section 3. To view a plot of the results click on the Chart icon as shown in Figure H. Figure H View a plot of a Results box A results plot is shown in Figure I. Note that it in the form of a PDF with the probability density on the vertical axis and the cost in $Billions (CDN) on the horizontal axis. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 13 Figure I Results Plot It is possible to change the format of this graph by clicking on the Edit Properties icon as shown in Figure J. Format changes include line colours, font size, etc. Figure J Edit Properties Icon for Results Plot Page 14 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL 5. REVIEW OF TEM INPUTS In this section we review the TEM inputs, on a sub-system by sub-system basis starting with Capture. Note to change input values, first the model must be in Edit Mode. 5.1 Capture Inputs Capture inputs are shown on the LHS of the TEM Main Inputs Dashboard as shown in Figure D. Capture is input by entering the capture rate for each capture technology contributing to a CO2 input stream. Capture rate is expressed in units of MT per year for the entire stream emitted by each capture plant. It includes the mass flow of impurities and pure CO2 combined. The purity (composition) of the combined CO2 stream can only be varied in terms of changing the type of capture plant the mass flow rates for each type of capture plant. The types of capture plant are: • Heavy post combustion; • Heavy IGCC; • Heavy Oxy Partial Shift; • Gas SMR; • Gas Oxy; and • Gas Processing Plant. A mass flow rate in the range 0 to 10 MT/yr can be entered for each capture technology in increments if 0.01 MT/yr. The total flow rate captured by the combined stream is displayed interactively in the results box labelled ‘Total Capture Rate (MT/yr).’ Default values of combined capture and compression costs are assumed by the TEM unless changed by the user. To change the default capture costs, the User clicks on the Go To Capture Cost Dashboard button located at the bottom of the Capture section of the main TEM dashboard. A capture coast dashboard as shown in Figure K, which allows the User to change the mean capture cost of each capture technology while preserving the original default spread of values about the means. The minimum and maximum mean values for each capture technology are $50/T and $200/T respectively and the smallest allowed increment is $0.01/T. 5.2 Pipeline Inputs Pipeline inputs are shown on the top second to LHS inputs of the TEM main Inputs Dashboard. There are only 4 pipeline inputs which are: • initial pressure in pounds per square inch (psi); • final pressure in psi; 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 15 • pipeline length in km; and • pipeline temperature in ºF. The pipeline model is sensitive to pressure drop across the pipeline starting with pressure after Capture and compression and pressure at prior to injection into either a storage reservoir or enhanced oil recovery reservoir. The length of the pipeline pertains to the backbone only and neglects local collection and distribution pipeline systems which would connect to the backbone in practice. The TEM calculates the realizable diameter in inches, which is one of a set of standard diameters used in the pipeline industry and displays it in the results box in the form of a thermometer box. Figure K Capture Cost Scaling Dashboard The minimum and maximum pressure values allowable for input into the Pipeline model are 100 psi and 5,000 psi with an associated minimum incremental value of 0.1 psi. The minimum and maximum values of pipeline length are 10 km and 10,000 km with a minimum increment of 0.1 km. The minimum and maximum temperature values are 5ºF and 200ºF with a minimum increment of 0.01ºF. 5.3 EOR Inputs Pipeline inputs are shown on the bottom second to LHS group of inputs of the TEM Main Inputs Dashboard. EOR inputs comprise only two parameters: • Page 16 Maximum Miscible Pressure or MMP in psi; and 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL • Net Present Value of a barrel (bbl) of recovered oil in $CDN. The maximum and minimum values for MMP permitted by the TEM are 1,000 psi and 2,000 psi with a smallest increment of 1 psi. The maximum and minimum value of the NPV of a bbl of oil are $5.00 CDN and $50.00 CDN respectively with a minimum increment of $0.10 CDN. 5.4 Sequestration Inputs Sequestration inputs are shown on the top RHS group of inputs of the TEM Main Inputs Dashboard. The largest contributions to cost are the following inputs: • fraction sequestered (the other fraction going to EOR); and • deep or shallow storage reservoir switch. The other inputs pertain to the number of injection wells calculation which is a secondary factor in sequestration cost. These inputs are as follows: • injection well radius in metre (m); • storage aquifer permeability in millidarcy (mD); • storage formation thickness in metre (m); • storage aquifer porosity (dimensionless); • storage aquifer relative permeability; • storage aquifer rock-CO2 system compressibility in inverse pascal (1/Pa); • viscosity of CO2 in the reservoir in centipoise (cP); • density of CO2 in a deep aquifer formation in kg/m ; and • density of CO2 in a shallow aquifer formation in kg/m . 3 3 The number of injection wells is calculated and displayed in the middle results box in a thermometer display. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 17 6. REVIEW OF TEM OUTPUTS After running the TEM, the model appears in results mode which permits results of running a simulation to be viewed. The results outputs can be accessed from the Inputs dashboard by clicking on the ‘Go To Main Results Dashboard’ button shown in Figure L. Figure L How to access results from the Main Inputs Dashboard The result of clicking on this icon is the appearance of the Main Results Dashboard in results mode shown in Figure M. Figure M Main Results Dashboard Results are shown for both ‘Pure’ CO2 and Impure CO2. This allows the user to observe the effect of impurities in the combined capture stream on subsystem cost and total cost. Inverted commas are Page 18 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL used to describe the pure CO2 scenario because in the case of capture there is no such entity as pure CO2. The capture stream from an industrial process will always contain some amount of impurities. However, the most pure industrial capture process is the Heavy Post Combustion which is 99.8% pure CO2 and is taken to be ‘pure’ for the purposes of the TEM. For the other subsystems, it is possible to estimate cost for a pure CO2 stream. To view the results for Capture of an impure CO2 stream, the user simply clicks on the Capture button on the RHS. Note more than one results box can be opened at a time so it is possible to compare say costs for both a Pure and Impure capture stream simultaneously as shown in Figure N. Figure N Results Boxes for Pure and Impure Combined Capture Streams To view the mean costs on a bar chart for each realization, click on the Overall Means buttons. To obtain a true mean of all Monte Carlo realizations, the full table of realizations must be extracted by clicking on the Overall button and clicking on the Table icon. An example table of realization values for all impure costs is shown in Table A. The table may be copied into an MS Excel spreadsheet from which the mean values can be easily computed using the Excel built-in AVERAGE() function and the appropriate bar chart. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 19 Table A Table of Monte Carlo Realization Values for all Impure Costs To return to the Main Inputs Dashboard, click on the Go To Input Dashboard button. To view intermediate results of the steps in the Pipeline, EOR and Sequestration models, click in the Pipeline, EOR and Sequestration buttons in the Other Dashboards box. The Pipeline, EOR and Sequestration results dashboards are shown in Figures O to Q. Figure O Page 20 Pipeline Results Dashboard 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL Figure P EOR Results Dashboard Figure Q Sequestration Results Dashboard 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 21 7. S AMPLE COST SCENARIOS The trends of changing the capture plant type and mass flow rate were shown in the Final Report. Figure R shows results boxes for Pure and Impure CO2 capture and compression costs in PDF view for an input stream comprising 3.5 MT/yr of Heavy Post Combustion plus 3.5 MT/yr of IGCC plus 5 MT/yr Oxy Partial Shift and 5 MT/yr Heavy Oxy. PDF view allows the most likely cost to be visualized and the shape of the cost distribution unlike CDF view. Figure R Results boxes for Capture for Pure and Impure CO2 Cases in PDF view Figure S shows CDF view allows all subsystem and total costs to be displayed on one graph. It also allows visualization of percentile values. Figure S Page 22 Results boxes for Overall Costs in CDF view for Pure and Impure CO2. 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL 8. CLOSURE We trust that this report satisfies your current requirements and provides suitable documentation for your records. If you have any questions or require further details, please contact the undersigned at any time. Report Prepared by Andrew McGoey-Smith, B.Sc, Ph.D. Principal Consultant Risk & EcoNomics Senior Review by Jos Beckers, Ph.D., P.Geo. Senior Hydrogeologist Prairie Business Unit Infrastructure & Environment WorleyParsons Canada Services Ltd. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 23 PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL Appendices 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Appendices PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL Appendix 1 Structure Of The GoldSim Software 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 1 PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL The ACPP Techno-economic model was built in GoldSim 10.5. GoldSim is a graphical, hierarical object-oriented modelling environment. GoldSim has been used for developing risk and decision models in the energy, mining, environmental, nuclear waste management and business sectors especially where uncertainty is an important consideration. The top level GoldSim for the TEM is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1 Top Level Model A GoldSim model presents as a series of icons which are known as elements. These are connected by arrows which show influences. We can infer from Figure 1 that injection rate influences sequestration and capture influences system injection rate. A GoldSim model can be regarded as a series of nested influence diagrams; it is hierarchical. The grey elements are known as containers. Figure 2 Example Container EOR 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 1 These can be regarded as sub-models and contain major model components. To see inside a container, you simply click on the cross on the top left hand corner of the container as shown in Figure 2. Figure 3 shows inside the EOR container. Note that there are several types of elements displayed. Figure 3 EOR Sub-model Container Figure 4 shows the most used elements all of which appear in the the TEM. By holding the mouse over a data function element for a deterministic quantity, the numerical value of that element is displayed as shown in Figure 5. Note that the model is dimensionally aware: the value is displayed in units of $. Also it is possible to show a definition of each function element in the form of an equation as shown in Figure 6. For a probabilistic (uncertain) variable, the probability distribution function for that variable is displayed in Figure 7. The probability distribution can be displayed in 3 forms: PDF, CDF and CCDF. The probability density function or PDF is available by clickng on the PDF icon. In PDF view, the variable ranges from about 0.28 to 0.54 bbl with a most likely value of about 0.37 billion bbl, close to the mean value of 0.38 billion bbl. The distribution is asymmetric because the most likely value is closer to the lower end of the range. The CDF is the integral of the PDF view. That is if PX(t) is the PDF of X, then the CDF is given by 𝑥 𝐶𝑋 (𝑥) = � 𝑝(𝑡)𝑑𝑡 0 Page 2 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL th The CDF allows us to assign percentile values. The 95 percentile value of variable x allows us to make the statement that we are 95% sure that the cost will not exceed 0.48 billion bbl. Figure 4 Commonly used GoldSim Elements Data Container Element 3.14 16 Fraction_GS Sequestration Switch Lookup Table Function Summation Stochastic Comp1_Density MMP_Factor_Sum Pure_Uncertainty Results Dashboard X X C A B Back_Diam_Std Capture_Pure_Bill Plume_Area_H2_S Inputs We can read common percentile values from the table of percentiles shown on the left side of boxes th shown in Figure 7. For a percentile value which is not displayed such as the 90 percentile, we need only type ‘0.99’ in the box labelled ‘Cum Probability’ and the value ‘4.55666E+008’ is computed by the TEM. Figure 5 Numerical value stored in a Data Element Data Element Value in data element by holding mouse over it 3.14 16 NPV_Oil_Base Similarly, for a a certain input value (here volume of oil recovered for an impure CO2 stream) of 0.5B bbl, the TEM calculates the probability of achieving this as ‘0.976778’ or approximately 97.7%. Therefore we can make the statement that the probability that the recovery will be 0.5B bbl is 97.7%. 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 3 Figure 6 Definition of function as an equation in a function element Function element Equation defining function element X X Oil_Recovery_impure_bbl In addition to PDF and CDF is CCDF which is the complementary CCF which is simply one minus the CDF and is sometimes used in probabilistic risk analysis, especially by the nuclear power industry. Page 4 307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx PTAC/ICO2N USER MANUAL ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL Figure 7 Results box for a probabilistic variable PDF Mode X X Oil_Recovery_impure_bbl CDF Mode X X Oil_Recovery_impure_bbl 3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014 Page 5
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