PTAC/ICO2N
User Manual
Alberta CO2 Purity Project Techno-Economic Model
3077074-01327 – EN-REP-0001
28 August 2014
WorleyParsons Canada
Suite 500, 151 Canada Olympic Rd SW
Calgary, AB T3B 6B7 CANADA
Phone: +1 403 247 0200
Toll-Free: 1 800 668 6772
Facsimile: +1 403 247 4811
www.worleyparsons.com
© Copyright 2014 WorleyParsons
PTAC/ICO2N
USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
SYNOPSIS
This document describes how to run the Alberta CO2 Purity Project Techno-economic Model (TEM)
which was developed by WorleyParsons Canada for the ICO2N Group of Canadian Companies with
funding from PTAC.
The model is in the form of a GoldSim dashboard which allows the user to change the set of inputs for
a CCS system such as (but not limited to):
•
CO2 volume captured;
•
types of industrial plants from which CO2 is captured;
•
pipeline length and pressure drop; and
•
fraction of CO2 sequestered (as opposed to that used for EOR).
For each set of inputs, a set of cost outputs is calculated comprising the following subsystems:
•
capture & compression;
•
transportation by pipeline;
•
enhanced oil recovery; and
•
geological sequestration.
The results are displayed graphically by the TEM in terms of probability distribution functions which
define a range of possible costs and the associated likelihood of each cost value in the range. In
addition mean cost values and other metrics such as standard deviation and percentile values are
displayed. Both probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) are shown
PROJECT 3077074-01327 - USER MANUAL
REV
DESCRIPTION
A
Issued for review
ORIG
REVIEW
WORLEY –
PARSONS
APPROVAL
A. McGoey-Smith
J. Beckers
A. Approver
DATE
CLIENT
APPROVAL
DATE
28-Aug-14
U:\CAL\GBS\307074-01327\13.0 Final Model\Deliverables\307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx
Document No. EN-REP-0001
Page i
as graphics. The model also allows specific percentile cost values to be shown as well as percentile
values for an input cost value which are useful in system planning and design.
Page ii
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USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
Disclaimer
The information presented in this document was compiled and interpreted exclusively for the
purposes stated in Section 1 of the document. WorleyParsons provided this report for
PTAC/ICO2N solely for the purpose noted above.
WorleyParsons has exercised reasonable skill, care, and diligence to assess the information
acquired during the preparation of this report, but makes no guarantees or warranties as to the
accuracy or completeness of this information. The information contained in this report is based
upon, and limited by, the circumstances and conditions acknowledged herein, and upon
information available at the time of its preparation. The information provided by others is believed
to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed.
WorleyParsons does not accept any responsibility for the use of this report for any purpose other
than that stated in Section 1 and does not accept responsibility to any third party for the use in
whole or in part of the contents of this report. Any alternative use, including that by a third party, or
any reliance on, or decisions based on this document, is the responsibility of the alternative user
or third party.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any
form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the
prior permission of WorleyParsons.
Any questions concerning the information or its interpretation should be directed to
A. McGoey-Smith or J. Beckers.
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PTAC/ICO2N
USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
CONTENTS
1.
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1
2.
PRINCIPAL INPUTS AND OUTPUTS OF THE TE MODEL .............................................. 2
2.1
Inputs: ...................................................................................................................... 2
2.2
Principal Outputs: ..................................................................................................... 3
3.
DOWNLOADING THE GOLDSIM PLAYER ....................................................................... 8
4.
OPENING, RUNNING THE TE MODEL AND VIEWING RESULTS................................ 10
5.
REVIEW OF TEM INPUTS ............................................................................................... 15
5.1
Capture Inputs ........................................................................................................ 15
5.2
Pipeline Inputs ........................................................................................................ 15
5.3
EOR Inputs ............................................................................................................. 16
5.4
Sequestration Inputs .............................................................................................. 17
6.
REVIEW OF TEM OUTPUTS ........................................................................................... 18
7.
SAMPLE COST SCENARIOS .......................................................................................... 22
8.
CLOSURE ........................................................................................................................ 23
Tables within Text
TABLE A
TABLE OF MONTE CARLO REALIZATION VALUES FOR ALL IMPURE
COSTS ................................................................................................................. 20
Figures within Text
FIGURE A
GOLDSIM PLAYER FILE ICON........................................................................... 10
FIGURE B
GOLDSIM RUN CONTROLLER SHOWING MODE ........................................... 10
FIGURE C
CONVERSION BETWEEN THE TWO MODELLING MODES ............................ 11
FIGURE D
ENTIRE TEM DASHBOARD ............................................................................... 11
FIGURE E
MAIN RESULTS DASHBOARD ........................................................................... 12
FIGURE F
DISPLAYING A RESULTS BOX WHEN IN EDIT MODE .................................... 12
FIGURE G
RESULTS BOX WHEN THE TEM IS IN RESULTS MODE ................................ 13
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FIGURE H
VIEW A PLOT OF A RESULTS BOX .................................................................. 13
FIGURE I
RESULTS PLOT .................................................................................................. 14
FIGURE J
EDIT PROPERTIES ICON FOR RESULTS PLOT.............................................. 14
FIGURE K
CAPTURE COST SCALING DASHBOARD ........................................................ 16
FIGURE L
HOW TO ACCESS RESULTS FROM THE MAIN INPUTS DASHBOARD ........ 18
FIGURE M
MAIN RESULTS DASHBOARD .......................................................................... 18
FIGURE N
RESULTS BOXES FOR PURE AND IMPURE COMBINED CAPTURE
STREAMS ............................................................................................................ 19
FIGURE O
PIPELINE RESULTS DASHBOARD ................................................................... 20
FIGURE P
EOR RESULTS DASHBOARD............................................................................ 21
FIGURE Q
SEQUESTRATION RESULTS DASHBOARD .................................................... 21
FIGURE R
RESULTS BOXES FOR CAPTURE FOR PURE AND IMPURE CO2 CASES
IN PDF VIEW ....................................................................................................... 22
FIGURE S
RESULTS BOXES FOR OVERALL COSTS IN CDF VIEW FOR PURE AND
IMPURE CO2. ...................................................................................................... 22
Appendices
APPENDIX 1
Page vi
STRUCTURE OF THE GOLDSIM SOFTWARE
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USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
1.
INTRODUCTION
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) has been identified by the UN International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2013) as the most realistic method for mitigating against the buildup of atmospheric carbon
dioxide from anthropogenic sources. It involves capturing gaseous CO2 at industrial sources and
compressing it to the supercritical state, transporting via pipeline to sinks where it can be either used for
enhanced oil recovery or be sequestered. The western Canadian Sedimentary Basin contains rock
formations which are particularly suitable for CO2 sequestration and are also relatively close to major
sources of CO2 such as the Alberta Oil Sands and the Alberta industrial heartland.
A significant risk to implementing Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in Canada and around the
world is the cost of CCS development and operation. Moreover this cost is known to increase with the
presence of impurities in the captured CO2 stream. Unlike CO2 used for enhanced oil recovery in the US
Southwest, which is relatively pure and comes from natural sources, sources of CO2 in Alberta which will
be either sequestered or used for EOR, will come from industrial processes and are relatively impure.
This document describes how to run the Techno-economic Model for the Alberta CO2 Purity Project (TE
model) developed for the ICO2N Group of Canadian Companies. The model is in the form of a GoldSim
dashboard. To run the model it is necessary to obtain a copy of the GoldSim player software which is
available from GoldSim Technology Group LLC as a free download.
The ACPP TE model calculates the cost of developing a CCS system in Canada for:
•
Capture & Compression;
•
Transportation By Pipeline;
•
Enhanced Oil Recovery;
•
Geological Sequestration; and
•
Total Cost.
System parameters are input to the TE model by the user. The model performs cost calculations for a
CCS system as a function of the CO2 annual capture rate from combinations of 6 different capture
sources. The results are displayed as output graphics by the TE model and can be also extracted and
plotted off-line too.
The TE model is probabilistic because of the large uncertainties involved in CCS development. Therefore
the results take the form of probability distribution functions. The results are displayed using graphics and
can also be copied and extracted for plotting using external software such as Microsoft Excel too. A
summary of the principal inputs and outputs of the model are shown in the next section.
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2.
PRINCIP AL INPUTS AND OUTPUTS OF THE TE MODEL
The inputs and principal outputs are summarized below:
2.1
•
Inputs:
Capture
−
Capture Rate for each capture plant type in megatonne/yr. Six different types of capture
plants are available to choose from:
o
o
o
o
o
o
•
Heavy Post Combustion;
Heavy IGCC;
Heavy Oxy Partial Shift;
Gas SMR;
Gas Oxy; and
Gas Processing Plant.
Pipeline
−
initial pressure at the capture plant output in psi;
−
final pressure at the EOR or Sequestration facility in psi;
−
pipeline length for the trunk line in km; and
−
pipeline temperature at the midpoint in ºF.
•
Fraction Sequestered (as opposed to fraction used for EOR) in %
•
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)
•
Page 2
−
Maximum Miscible Pressure (MMP) in psi; and
−
NPV of a barrel of oil recovered during EOR in $US.
Sequestration
−
deep or shallow injection;
−
formation properties comprising;
−
CO2 density in the formation in kg/m ; and
−
injection well radius in m.
3
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USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
2.2
•
Principal Outputs:
Capture Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values).
Pure Capture Cost (PDF)
•
Impure Capture Cost (PDF)
Capture Cost in Table Form
Pure Capture Cost
Impure Capture Cost
Number of Samples
10000
Number of Samples
10000
Mean
49.225
Mean
54.849
5% Conf. Bound
49.069
5% Conf. Bound
54.778
95% Conf. Bound
49.381
95% Conf. Bound
54.919
Standard Deviation
9.4912
Standard Deviation
4.2776
Skewness
0.52191
Skewness
0.34532
Kurtosis
-0.62936
Kurtosis
-0.25726
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•
Pipeline Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values)
Pure Capture Cost (PDF)
•
Impure Capture Cost (PDF)
Pipeline Cost in Table Form
Pure Pipeline Cost
Number of Samples
Mean
5% Conf. Bound
95% Conf. Bound
Standard Deviation
Skewness
Kurtosis
•
10000
0.090303
0.090181
0.090425
0.007425
-0.0070329
-0.59419
Number of Samples
Mean
5% Conf. Bound
95% Conf. Bound
Standard Deviation
Skewness
Kurtosis
10000
0.095926
0.095798
0.096054
0.0077996
0.0053884
-0.59274
Principal Outputs
−
EOR Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values)
Pure EOR Cost (Recovery)
Page 4
Impure Pipeline Cost
Impure EOR Cost (Recovery)
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USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
−
EOR Cost in Table Form
Pure EOR Cost (Recovery)
Impure EOR Cost (Recovery)
Number of Samples
10000
Number of Samples
10000
Mean
-14.934
Mean
-14.168
5% Conf. Bound
-14.974
5% Conf. Bound
-14.206
95% Conf. Bound
-14.894
95% Conf. Bound
-14.13
Standard Deviation
2.43
Standard Deviation
2.3055
Skewness
-0.59264
Skewness
-0.59242
Kurtosis
0.23033
Kurtosis
0.22986
−
Sequestration Cost (Plot of PDF showing ranges of values)
Pure Sequestration Cost
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Impure Sequestration Cost
Page 5
•
Principal Outputs
−
Sequestration Cost in Table Form
Pure Sequestration Cost
Number of Samples
10000
Number of Samples
5% Conf. Bound
0.42274
5% Conf. Bound
0.61508
95% Conf. Bound
0.42654
95% Conf. Bound
0.62102
Standard Deviation
0.11543
Standard Deviation
0.18058
Skewness
0.4404
Skewness
0.45751
Kurtosis
-0.26258
Kurtosis
-0.27907
Overall Mean Costs in Histogram Plot form
Overall Mean Cost Pure
−
Overall Mean Cost Impure
Overall Mean Costs in Table form
Overall Mean Cost Pure
Page 6
10000
Mean 0.61805
Mean 0.42464
−
Impure Sequestration Cost
Overall Mean Cost Impure
Capture
49.286
Capture
54.781
Pipeline
0.090147
Pipeline
0.095817
EOR
14.832
EOR
14.071
Sequestration
0.07018
Sequestration
0.61629
Total
34.968
Total
40.468
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USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
•
Principal Outputs
−
Overall Cost in Histogram Form (Log cost scale for comparison between components)
Overall Mean Cost Pure
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Overall Mean Cost Impure
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3.
DOWNLO ADING THE GOLDSIM PLAYER
Unless the user has access to the GoldSim modelling environment, it is necessary to use GoldSim Player
to open the TE Model. The GoldSim Player may be accessed as a free download using the following
steps:
a)
Goto GoldSim website at: www.goldsim.com and Click on Downloads (circled in red)
b)
Click on GoldSim Player
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ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
c)
Fill out contact information and click Request GoldSim Player
d)
Request Current Version of GoldSim Player
GoldSim Player Version 11.1
The most recent version of the GoldSim Player is available for download below.
File
Comments
GoldSim Player Version 11.1
Installation file for the
latest version (11.1) of
the GoldSim Player.
Installation File (June 3, 2014)
e)
Click Save and save in a directory which you specify
f)
Click start icon and GoldSim Player 11.1 from pop up menu
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4.
OPENING, RUNNING THE TE MODEL AND VIEWING RESULTS
The TEM is opened by double-clicking on the executable file ACPP Overall TE Model v9.25.gsp. The
extension .gsp means that the executable file is a GoldSim Player file. The executable file icon is shown
in Figure A.
Figure A
GoldSim Player File Icon
ACPP Overall TE Model v9.25.gsp
When the executable file is opened up, the input dashboard pops up. Also the GoldSim run controller
appears which is shown in Figure B. The run controller allows the model to be in two states: Edit mode
and Results mode. When the run controller is in edit mode, the status icon is red and when the run
controller is results mode, the status icon is green.
Figure B
GoldSim Run Controller showing Mode
Run Controller in Edit Mode
Run Controller in Results Mode
When the TEM is in edit mode, the model inputs can be changed. When the TEM is on results mode,
results can be viewed. When in results mode, to convert back to edit mode, click on the Reset Simulation
button show in the LHS of Figure C. Similarly to run the TEM as a full probabilistic simulation
(recommended), click on the Run Simulation button shown in the RHS of Figure C.
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ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
Figure C
Conversion between the two modelling modes
Convert from Results Mode to Edit Mode
Convert from Edit Mode to Results Mode
We now show how to run a specific modelling scenario. The entire TEM dashboard in edit mode is shown
in Figure D.
Figure D
Entire TEM Dashboard
To try to examine some results when still in edit mode, we can first click on the Go To to Main Results
Dashboard button shown in Figure E. Then if we click on one of the show results buttons, say Capture,
then we observe an error message as per the box shown in Figure F. Note all results boxes display this
error message when the TEM is in edit mode.
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Figure E
Main Results Dashboard
Figure F
Displaying a results box when in Edit mode
We now systematically review all inputs starting with Capture, then proceeding through Pipeline, EOR and
finally Sequestration.
The same results box (Capture Cost for an Impure CO2 stream) shown in Figure G. This pertains to an
input scenario as shown in Figure D with 10,000 Monte Carlo realizations. Each Monte Carlo realization is
a snapshot of the possible state of the system which is sampled from the set of uncertain inputs.
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Figure G
Results box when the TEM is in Results Mode
The properties of the results are given in the results box as described in Section 3. To view a plot of the
results click on the Chart icon as shown in Figure H.
Figure H
View a plot of a Results box
A results plot is shown in Figure I. Note that it in the form of a PDF with the probability density on the
vertical axis and the cost in $Billions (CDN) on the horizontal axis.
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Figure I
Results Plot
It is possible to change the format of this graph by clicking on the Edit Properties icon as shown in
Figure J. Format changes include line colours, font size, etc.
Figure J Edit Properties Icon for Results Plot
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ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
5.
REVIEW OF TEM INPUTS
In this section we review the TEM inputs, on a sub-system by sub-system basis starting with Capture.
Note to change input values, first the model must be in Edit Mode.
5.1
Capture Inputs
Capture inputs are shown on the LHS of the TEM Main Inputs Dashboard as shown in Figure D. Capture
is input by entering the capture rate for each capture technology contributing to a CO2 input stream.
Capture rate is expressed in units of MT per year for the entire stream emitted by each capture plant. It
includes the mass flow of impurities and pure CO2 combined. The purity (composition) of the combined
CO2 stream can only be varied in terms of changing the type of capture plant the mass flow rates for each
type of capture plant. The types of capture plant are:
•
Heavy post combustion;
•
Heavy IGCC;
•
Heavy Oxy Partial Shift;
•
Gas SMR;
•
Gas Oxy; and
•
Gas Processing Plant.
A mass flow rate in the range 0 to 10 MT/yr can be entered for each capture technology in increments if
0.01 MT/yr. The total flow rate captured by the combined stream is displayed interactively in the results
box labelled ‘Total Capture Rate (MT/yr).’
Default values of combined capture and compression costs are assumed by the TEM unless changed by
the user. To change the default capture costs, the User clicks on the Go To Capture Cost Dashboard
button located at the bottom of the Capture section of the main TEM dashboard. A capture coast
dashboard as shown in Figure K, which allows the User to change the mean capture cost of each capture
technology while preserving the original default spread of values about the means. The minimum and
maximum mean values for each capture technology are $50/T and $200/T respectively and the smallest
allowed increment is $0.01/T.
5.2
Pipeline Inputs
Pipeline inputs are shown on the top second to LHS inputs of the TEM main Inputs Dashboard. There are
only 4 pipeline inputs which are:
•
initial pressure in pounds per square inch (psi);
•
final pressure in psi;
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•
pipeline length in km; and
•
pipeline temperature in ºF.
The pipeline model is sensitive to pressure drop across the pipeline starting with pressure after Capture
and compression and pressure at prior to injection into either a storage reservoir or enhanced oil recovery
reservoir. The length of the pipeline pertains to the backbone only and neglects local collection and
distribution pipeline systems which would connect to the backbone in practice. The TEM calculates the
realizable diameter in inches, which is one of a set of standard diameters used in the pipeline industry and
displays it in the results box in the form of a thermometer box.
Figure K Capture Cost Scaling Dashboard
The minimum and maximum pressure values allowable for input into the Pipeline model are 100 psi and
5,000 psi with an associated minimum incremental value of 0.1 psi. The minimum and maximum values
of pipeline length are 10 km and 10,000 km with a minimum increment of 0.1 km. The minimum and
maximum temperature values are 5ºF and 200ºF with a minimum increment of 0.01ºF.
5.3
EOR Inputs
Pipeline inputs are shown on the bottom second to LHS group of inputs of the TEM Main Inputs
Dashboard. EOR inputs comprise only two parameters:
•
Page 16
Maximum Miscible Pressure or MMP in psi; and
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ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
•
Net Present Value of a barrel (bbl) of recovered oil in $CDN.
The maximum and minimum values for MMP permitted by the TEM are 1,000 psi and 2,000 psi with a
smallest increment of 1 psi. The maximum and minimum value of the NPV of a bbl of oil are $5.00 CDN
and $50.00 CDN respectively with a minimum increment of $0.10 CDN.
5.4
Sequestration Inputs
Sequestration inputs are shown on the top RHS group of inputs of the TEM Main Inputs Dashboard. The
largest contributions to cost are the following inputs:
•
fraction sequestered (the other fraction going to EOR); and
•
deep or shallow storage reservoir switch.
The other inputs pertain to the number of injection wells calculation which is a secondary factor in
sequestration cost. These inputs are as follows:
•
injection well radius in metre (m);
•
storage aquifer permeability in millidarcy (mD);
•
storage formation thickness in metre (m);
•
storage aquifer porosity (dimensionless);
•
storage aquifer relative permeability;
•
storage aquifer rock-CO2 system compressibility in inverse pascal (1/Pa);
•
viscosity of CO2 in the reservoir in centipoise (cP);
•
density of CO2 in a deep aquifer formation in kg/m ; and
•
density of CO2 in a shallow aquifer formation in kg/m .
3
3
The number of injection wells is calculated and displayed in the middle results box in a thermometer
display.
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6.
REVIEW OF TEM OUTPUTS
After running the TEM, the model appears in results mode which permits results of running a simulation to
be viewed. The results outputs can be accessed from the Inputs dashboard by clicking on the ‘Go To
Main Results Dashboard’ button shown in Figure L.
Figure L
How to access results from the Main Inputs Dashboard
The result of clicking on this icon is the appearance of the Main Results Dashboard in results mode shown
in Figure M.
Figure M
Main Results Dashboard
Results are shown for both ‘Pure’ CO2 and Impure CO2. This allows the user to observe the effect of
impurities in the combined capture stream on subsystem cost and total cost. Inverted commas are
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used to describe the pure CO2 scenario because in the case of capture there is no such entity as pure
CO2. The capture stream from an industrial process will always contain some amount of impurities.
However, the most pure industrial capture process is the Heavy Post Combustion which is 99.8% pure
CO2 and is taken to be ‘pure’ for the purposes of the TEM. For the other subsystems, it is possible to
estimate cost for a pure CO2 stream.
To view the results for Capture of an impure CO2 stream, the user simply clicks on the Capture button on
the RHS. Note more than one results box can be opened at a time so it is possible to compare say costs
for both a Pure and Impure capture stream simultaneously as shown in Figure N.
Figure N
Results Boxes for Pure and Impure Combined Capture Streams
To view the mean costs on a bar chart for each realization, click on the Overall Means buttons. To obtain
a true mean of all Monte Carlo realizations, the full table of realizations must be extracted by clicking on
the Overall button and clicking on the Table icon. An example table of realization values for all impure
costs is shown in Table A. The table may be copied into an MS Excel spreadsheet from which the mean
values can be easily computed using the Excel built-in AVERAGE() function and the appropriate bar chart.
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Table A Table of Monte Carlo Realization Values for all Impure Costs
To return to the Main Inputs Dashboard, click on the Go To Input Dashboard button.
To view intermediate results of the steps in the Pipeline, EOR and Sequestration models, click in the
Pipeline, EOR and Sequestration buttons in the Other Dashboards box. The Pipeline, EOR and
Sequestration results dashboards are shown in Figures O to Q.
Figure O
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Pipeline Results Dashboard
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Figure P
EOR Results Dashboard
Figure Q
Sequestration Results Dashboard
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7.
S AMPLE COST SCENARIOS
The trends of changing the capture plant type and mass flow rate were shown in the Final Report.
Figure R shows results boxes for Pure and Impure CO2 capture and compression costs in PDF view for an
input stream comprising 3.5 MT/yr of Heavy Post Combustion plus 3.5 MT/yr of IGCC plus 5 MT/yr Oxy
Partial Shift and 5 MT/yr Heavy Oxy. PDF view allows the most likely cost to be visualized and the shape
of the cost distribution unlike CDF view.
Figure R
Results boxes for Capture for Pure and Impure CO2 Cases in PDF view
Figure S shows CDF view allows all subsystem and total costs to be displayed on one graph. It also
allows visualization of percentile values.
Figure S
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Results boxes for Overall Costs in CDF view for Pure and Impure CO2.
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8.
CLOSURE
We trust that this report satisfies your current requirements and provides suitable documentation for
your records. If you have any questions or require further details, please contact the undersigned at
any time.
Report Prepared by
Andrew McGoey-Smith, B.Sc, Ph.D.
Principal Consultant Risk & EcoNomics
Senior Review by
Jos Beckers, Ph.D., P.Geo.
Senior Hydrogeologist
Prairie Business Unit
Infrastructure & Environment
WorleyParsons Canada Services Ltd.
3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014
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PTAC/ICO2N
USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
Appendices
3077074-01327 : Rev A : 28 August 2014
Appendices
PTAC/ICO2N
USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
Appendix 1
Structure Of The GoldSim Software
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PTAC/ICO2N
USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
The ACPP Techno-economic model was built in GoldSim 10.5. GoldSim is a graphical, hierarical
object-oriented modelling environment. GoldSim has been used for developing risk and decision
models in the energy, mining, environmental, nuclear waste management and business sectors
especially where uncertainty is an important consideration. The top level GoldSim for the TEM is
shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1
Top Level Model
A GoldSim model presents as a series of icons which are known as elements. These are connected by
arrows which show influences. We can infer from Figure 1 that injection rate influences sequestration
and capture influences system injection rate. A GoldSim model can be regarded as a series of nested
influence diagrams; it is hierarchical. The grey elements are known as containers.
Figure 2
Example Container
EOR
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These can be regarded as sub-models and contain major model components. To see inside a
container, you simply click on the cross on the top left hand corner of the container as shown in
Figure 2. Figure 3 shows inside the EOR container. Note that there are several types of elements
displayed.
Figure 3
EOR Sub-model Container
Figure 4 shows the most used elements all of which appear in the the TEM. By holding the mouse over
a data function element for a deterministic quantity, the numerical value of that element is displayed as
shown in Figure 5. Note that the model is dimensionally aware: the value is displayed in units of $.
Also it is possible to show a definition of each function element in the form of an equation as shown in
Figure 6.
For a probabilistic (uncertain) variable, the probability distribution function for that variable is displayed
in Figure 7. The probability distribution can be displayed in 3 forms: PDF, CDF and CCDF.
The probability density function or PDF is available by clickng on the PDF icon. In PDF view, the
variable ranges from about 0.28 to 0.54 bbl with a most likely value of about 0.37 billion bbl, close to
the mean value of 0.38 billion bbl. The distribution is asymmetric because the most likely value is
closer to the lower end of the range. The CDF is the integral of the PDF view. That is if PX(t) is the PDF
of X, then the CDF is given by
𝑥
𝐶𝑋 (𝑥) = � 𝑝(𝑡)𝑑𝑡
0
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307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx
PTAC/ICO2N
USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
th
The CDF allows us to assign percentile values. The 95 percentile value of variable x allows us to
make the statement that we are 95% sure that the cost will not exceed 0.48 billion bbl.
Figure 4
Commonly used GoldSim Elements
Data
Container
Element
3.14
16
Fraction_GS
Sequestration
Switch
Lookup Table
Function
Summation
Stochastic
Comp1_Density
MMP_Factor_Sum
Pure_Uncertainty
Results
Dashboard
X
X
C
A
B
Back_Diam_Std
Capture_Pure_Bill
Plume_Area_H2_S
Inputs
We can read common percentile values from the table of percentiles shown on the left side of boxes
th
shown in Figure 7. For a percentile value which is not displayed such as the 90 percentile, we need
only type ‘0.99’ in the box labelled ‘Cum Probability’ and the value ‘4.55666E+008’ is computed by the
TEM.
Figure 5
Numerical value stored in a Data Element
Data Element
Value in data element by holding mouse over it
3.14
16
NPV_Oil_Base
Similarly, for a a certain input value (here volume of oil recovered for an impure CO2 stream) of
0.5B bbl, the TEM calculates the probability of achieving this as ‘0.976778’ or approximately 97.7%.
Therefore we can make the statement that the probability that the recovery will be 0.5B bbl is 97.7%.
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Figure 6
Definition of function as an equation in a function element
Function element
Equation defining function element
X
X
Oil_Recovery_impure_bbl
In addition to PDF and CDF is CCDF which is the complementary CCF which is simply one minus the
CDF and is sometimes used in probabilistic risk analysis, especially by the nuclear power industry.
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307074-01327-REP-00001-ACPP TE Model User manual-RevA.docx
PTAC/ICO2N
USER MANUAL
ALBERTA CO2 PURITY PROJECT TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODEL
Figure 7
Results box for a probabilistic variable
PDF Mode
X
X
Oil_Recovery_impure_bbl
CDF Mode
X
X
Oil_Recovery_impure_bbl
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