Closing Grain & Soybean Comments Kevin Riesberg Tuesday October 14 2014 CORN: Corn exploded higher when a push above the $3.50 1/2 triggered buy-stops and over 11,000 contracts of Dec corn traded in that 1 minute. Another 13,000 contracts then traded later in the day at 1 pm as the buying found very little farmer selling today. Country contacts report farmer selling should pick up toward the $3.75-3.80 area and then again toward $4.00. Ideas behind the buying today ranged from corn harvest running late (no surprise there) to more possible changes to FSA acreage data in tomorrow's reports. Harvest progress tonight at 24% complete was right in line with the expected 25%. The 5 year avg for corn harvest is 43% for this week. The weather forecast does turn drier in the 6-10 day period across the Midwest though the back end of the 11-15 day forecast has rain in it. The outside markets saw energies under pressure, except for ethanol, while US dollar rebounded. Export news is light though with S. Korea passing on tenders last night citing prices as too high. Dec/March corn spread did hit 13 cents but stalled there. Trade now waits for harvest and yield reports to resume and also if reports of light test weights continue in parts of the northern Corn Belt (northern IA, MN, WI). 7/18/2014 - 10/17/2014 (CHG) Daily 1CZ4 Cndl, 1CZ4, Trade Price 10/14/2014, 3451/ 2, 3571/ 2, 343, 357, +11, (+3.18%) 3MA, 1CZ4, Trade Price(Last), 50, 100, 200, Simple 10/14/2014, 3497/ 8+, 3841/ 8+, 4303/ 4+ SMA, 1CZ4, Trade Price(Last), 10 10/14/2014, 3361/ 2+ Price USc Bsh 400 Dec corn resistance band 3.60-$3.80 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 1/8 StochS, 1CZ4, Trade Price, 22, 5, Exponential, 5 10/14/2014, 76.495, 60.243 21 28 04 11 18 July 2014 August 2014 25 02 08 15 22 September 2014 29 06 13 October 2014 Value USc Bsh SOY-COMPLEX: Beans and meal closed higher on continued short covering driven by friendly technicals. Lack of US farmer selling and slower than normal US harvest also giving some support though producer selling is expected to pick up toward the $9.80-$10.00 area in Nov beans. October meal went off the board in volatile trade with Oct/Dec inverse trading $50. NOPA crush report is out tomorrow and estimates are wide ranging from as low as 95 mln bu and as high as 117 mln bu with avg guess of 108 mln bu (similar to last September). Some believe it will be on the low side since some processors had to slow down/shut down due to lack of soybeans and the empty pipeline (recall Sept 1st stocks were a meager 92 mln bu). Estimates on the soyoil stocks range from just 850 mln lbs to 1.250 bln lbs with avg guess of 1.0 bln lbs. This afternoon's harvest progress number at 40% was better than the avg guess of low 30s with not too far behind the 5 year avg of 53% harvested. Soybean basis at the Gulf is firmer as exporters work to load boats with talk of some Western bean trains getting a premium due to better protein/oil content. Weekly export inspections were better than expected at just over 52 mln bu, of which over 32 mln of this was shipped out of the Gulf and less than 15 mln bu shipped from the PNW. Historically export inspections out of the US should be hitting their peak over the next 4 weeks. Trade is keeping eye on dryness in parts of Brazil as it slows bean planting slightly there (but it is early yet with RJO’Brien Service is our trade 1|Page just 7% of the crop is planted vs 10% avg). Technically Nov beans look to find resistance toward the $9.85$10.00 area, see chart. 6/16/2014 - 10/21/2014 (CHG) Price USc Bsh Daily 1SX4 3MA, 1SX4, Trade Price(Last), 20, 50, 100, Simple 10/14/2014, 9363/ 4+, 994+, 10781/ 8+ Cndl, 1SX4, Trade Price /2, (+2.06%) 10/14/2014, 9433/4, 9701/2, 9431/ 4, 964, +1911116 100.0% 1/4+ 1110 1080 Resistance for SX toward 9.85-9.95 1050 61.8% 1035 1/8+ 1020 50.0% 1010 1/8+ 990 38.2% 985+ 960 23.6% 954+ 930 0.0% 903 7/8+ 1/8 16 23 June 2014 30 07 14 21 July 2014 28 04 11 18 August 2014 25 02 08 15 22 September 2014 29 06 13 October 2014 20 WHEAT: The wheat market closed higher following the rally in corn and soybeans though there was very little fundamental news for wheat to trade on. Weekly export inspections were lighter than expected at just 15.5 mln bu. US inspections are now running 34% behind last year when the USDA is projecting the US to be just 21% behind after increasing the number last Friday. In other news some private forecasters are calling for Australian wheat crop to be as low as 22 mmt with harvest getting underway. This would be 3 mmt less than the current USDA number and would be the smallest wheat crop then since 2009/10 for the Land Down Under (see chart). Russian wheat prices are holding steady while European wheat prices grudgingly followed the US market higher. This afternoon the USDA reported that US winter wheat plantings at 68% is right in line with avg pace 67% (note some SRW states are behind due to the late fall harvest...IL is just 15% planted vs 41% normally). Trade is expecting to see a drop in IL and WI SRW acres this fall thanks to a combination of wet fall/slow planting and disappointment with last summer's net return after the high discounts on vomitoxin. Would look for wheat to be a follower in the night session and consolidate in choppy trade. Have a good afternoon! 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