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Market Briefing:
S&P 500 Bull & Bear
Markets & Corrections
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 17, 2014
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
[email protected]
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at
www.yardeni.com
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thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
1-7
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Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Figure 1.
2200
2000
1800
2200
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2008-2014*
-56.8%
(510)
-16.0%
(69)
-19.4% -9.8%
(154) (27)
-9.9%
(59)
2000
10/17
1800
-7.7%
(61)
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
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600
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
600
2014
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 2.
1800
1800
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2000-2009*
1600
1600
-49.1%
(915)
-14.7%
(104)
-8.2%
(181)
-56.8%
(510)
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
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600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
600
2009
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 1 / October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
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Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Figure 3.
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1987-2000*
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
500
-33.5%
(99)
-19.9%
(85)
-8.9%
(62)
-9.6%
(53)
-19.3%
(44)
-49.1%
(915)
600
500
400
400
300
300
yardeni.com
200
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200
2000
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 4.
350
330
310
350
330
310
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1980-1987*
290
290
270
270
250
250
230
230
210
190
210
-17.1%
(44)
-27.1%
(614)
-14.4%
(284)
-33.5%
(99)
190
170
170
150
150
130
130
110
110
yardeni.com
90
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
90
1987
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 2 / October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
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Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Figure 5.
150
140
150
-27.1%
(614)
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1973-1980*
-48.2%
(622)
130
-13.6%
(29)
-14.1%
(61)
-19.4%
(525)
-13.6%
(62)
-10.2% -17.1%
(32)
(44)
140
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
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60
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
60
1980
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 6.
125
125
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1968-1973*
115
115
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
-10.1%
(160)
-36.1%
(537)
-10.7% -11.0%
(101)
(75)
-48.2%
(622)
yardeni.com
65
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
75
65
1973
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 3 / October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
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Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Figure 7.
110
110
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1966-1968*
100
100
90
90
80
80
-22.2%
(238)
-10.1%
(160)
-36.1%
(537)
yardeni.com
70
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
70
IV
1966
1967
1968
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 8.
110
110
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1962-1966*
100
-26.4%
(173)
-10.5%
(61)
-9.6%
(45)
-22.2%
(238)
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
yardeni.com
50
1962
1963
1964
1965
50
1966
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 4 / October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Figure 9.
85
80
85
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1957-1962*
75 -14.8%
(190)
70
-20.7%
(97)
80
-13.6%
(415)
-26.4%
(173)
-10.5%
( 61)
75
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
yardeni.com
35
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
35
1962
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 10.
70
60
70
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1948-1957*
-14.1%
(200)
-20.6%
(358)
-14.0%
(35)
-14.8%
(249)
-14.8%
(190)
-20.7%
(97)
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
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10
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
10
1957
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 5 / October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Figure 11.
22
22
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1946-1948*
21
21
-26.6%
(130)
20
-14.7%
(98)
-14.1%
(200)
-20.6%
(358)
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
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13
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
13
IV
1946
1947
1948
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 12.
25
23
21
25
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1937-1946*
-54.5%
(385)
-26.2%
(149)
-31.9%
(225)
-34.5%
(529)
23
-13.1%
(135)
-26.6%
(130)
21
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
9
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7
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
7
1946
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 6 / October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Figure 13.
54
49
44
39
34
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 1929-1937*
-44.7%
(66)
-83.0%
(771)
-40.6%
(170)
-29.8%
(93)
-31.8%
(398)
-12.8%
(23)
-54.5%
(385)
54
49
44
39
34
29
29
24
24
19
19
14
14
9
9
yardeni.com
4
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
4
1937
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of days
in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 7 / October 17, 2014 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Markets & Corrections
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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