ano ivesh N Nano Nivesh September 14, 2012 Key risks to investing in Nano stocks • Nano stocks may not be in the limelight and inherently being micro cap in nature will have a high risk return profile • We advise clients to be disciplined in investing at all times. Allocate only a small proportion of your investible income to these stocks and diversify well • Try to diversify your exposure within the Nano stocks as well by investing equal proportions in several picks • These stocks may have low volumes and trade infrequently • Micro cap stocks the world over are, to a large extent, affected by the “Pump and Dump” phenomenon of inflated price buying and depressed price selling • As explained above, the clients should be patient and trade only through limit orders on any side of the trade. • The risk of volatility remains in such micro cap stocks as they can move up or down with large buy/sell orders • The fair value of Nano stocks are subject to expected growth potential in the future. Though due diligence has been done to a fair extent, the actualisation of growth still has a degree of uncertainty attached to it Nano stocks report tries to highlight companies with good and scaleable business models, dependable management and sound financials. However, these stocks may not be in the limelight and have a high risk high return potential. Please watch out for the following factors before investing in these stocks: Allocate a small proportion of your investible income to these stocks and diversify well. If you choose to invest in these stocks, most of your assets allocated towards equity should remain in more stable investments like stocks of large companies. Moreover, try to diversify your exposure within the nano stocks as well by investing equal proportions in several picks. This will help you avoid losing too much of your total wealth if the investments do not turn out well. When you invest in micro-cap stocks there is a higher risk of impairment. These stocks may have low volumes and trade infrequently. This can create a situation in which you may not be able to find any willing buyers for your stocks when you wish to sell. We advise our clients to be patient and trade only though limit orders to avoid volatile fluctuations, both while putting a buy and sell order in these stocks. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Nano Nivesh October 8, 2014 CCL Products Ltd (CONCF) Sanjay Manyal [email protected] Parineeta Rajgarhia [email protected] Price CCL Products, largest exporter of bulk instant coffee from India, with capacity of 33000 MT across India, Switzerland, Vietnam, is expected to see robust earnings growth at 33.3% CAGR (FY14-17E) to | 152.4 crore (FY17E). Growth may primarily be led by higher contribution to revenue from its newly commissioned Vietnam plant having favourable location, duty and tax structure for export of instant coffee globally. Highlights: • | 116 Recommendation • Buy • Fair Value | 150 - 170 • Largest instant coffee manufacturer: With a capacity of 20000 MT in India, 10000 MT in Vietnam (expandable further by 10000 MT) and 3000 MT in Switzerland, CCL Products (CPL) is the largest instant coffee producer and exporter from India. The company has expanded its capacity from ~9000 MT in FY06 to ~33000 MT in FY14 and extended its presence from India to other global markets to cater to the specific needs across markets. Increased capacity to aid volume growth: The company’s new capacity in Vietnam (10000 MT), commissioned in H2FY14 is expected to aid the volume growth of CCL from FY15E onwards. Hence, we expect the company’s total coffee sales to increase to ~28000 MT by FY17E from ~19500 MT in FY14. Savings in costs to aid margins: With CCL’s plant in Vietnam, the company would be saving ~50% in logistics cost for exports to Asian countries (~US$100-150/tonne) as transportation cost from Vietnam ($1200-1600/container) is much lower than that from India ($3000-3600/container). Further, with the proximity of capacity near the coffee producing region in Vietnam (Dak Lak) CCL’s transportation cost for importing raw material (30% was sourced from Vietnam) and lead time for acquiring the same (two to three months) would also get halved, consequently aiding EBITDA margins for CCL. We expect margins to increase to 23.3% by FY17E from 20% in FY14. Higher margins, lower taxes to drive earnings: CCL Products has been granted a four year tax holiday (from the year it starts making a profit) and subsidised tax at 5% till the fifteenth year by the Vietnam government as it is the largest coffee exporter from the region. Hence, we expect improving margins coupled with lower taxes to drive CCL’s earnings growth at a robust 33% CAGR (FY14-17E) to | 152.4 crore by FY17E. Key risksBusiness specific Fluctuations in coffee production: With Brazil being the largest coffee producer, any fluctuation in coffee production in Brazil has a consequent impact on coffee prices globally. If coffee production is very good in Brazil but lower in Vietnam, prices witness a significant correction globally, impacting realisations for CCL. In FY12 when production in Brazil declined by 9.6%, production in Vietnam was higher by ~24% and global production was flat flat, coffee prices increased by 15-22%. While in FY13 Brazil witnessed higher production by ~17% while Vietnam’s production fell by ~9%, coffee prices globally witnessed a steep decline (4-35%) taking cues from Brazil’s production. Hence, dependence on coffee production makes margin certainty very tough for CCL’s business. Company specific Changes in duty and taxation structure in Vietnam: The Vietnam plant is particularly attractive for its favourable duty and tax structure for CCL aiding its expansion into the Asian markets. However, in the event of any change in either of them, we believe the growth in revenues and earnings could be severely impacted. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Description Stock data CCL Products (India) Ltd is the largest producer and exporter of bulk instant coffee from India and has 10% global market share in instant coffee exports (excluding Nestlé’s captive consumption). The company has a total processing capacity of 33000 MT, having one of the largest capacity in India (20000 MT) and Vietnam (10000 MT). The company has also entered the branded coffee business in India (competitors: Bru from HUL and Nescafe from Nestlé) through its own brand ‘Continental’, available in Andhra Pradesh, which it plans to launch pan-India in FY15. Market Capitalization (| crore) 52 Week High / Low (|) Promoter Holding (%) FII Holding (%) DII Holding (%) Dividend Yield (%) 12M / 6M stock return (%) Debt (| crore) (FY14) Cash and Cash Equivalent (| crore) Enterprise Value (| crore) 5 Year Revenue CAGR (%) (FY09-14) 5 Year EBITDA CAGR (%) (FY09-14) 5 Year PAT CAGR (%) (FY09-14) History and track record • CCL Products (India) Ltd started operations in 1995 as an export oriented unit (~90% of revenues from exports) for manufacture of soluble (instant) coffee with installed capacity of 3600 MT/annum • From 3600 MT capacity, the company has expanded its capacity to ~33,000 MT (2014) along with geographical expansion into three countries, India, Switzerland and Vietnam • The company has set up its biggest facility of ~10000 MT (scalable up to 20000 MT which could further double the production from Vietnam to ~16000 MT, going ahead) in Vietnam (commissioned partly in FY14) to meet the growing demand from Asian countries and capitalise on operational and financial benefits for coffee exports from Vietnam • Revenue growth in the last five years (FY09-14) has remained modest at 8.9% CAGR given the fluctuation in coffee prices. However, earnings have grown at a robust 30.6% CAGR aided by improving EBITDA margins from 11.1% in FY09 to 20% in FY14 • Despite constant expansion over the years, CCL’s debt-equity is comfortable at 0.7x in FY14 vs. 1.4x in FY09. The company has also increased its dividend payout from 8.1% in FY09 to 24.8% in FY14 Valuation table FY14 P/E 24.0 Target P/E 35.5 EV / EBITDA 12.2 P/BV 0.4 RoNW 18.3 RoCE 19.2 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research FY15E 16.7 24.7 9.8 3.6 21.7 22.2 FY16E 12.0 17.8 7.6 2.9 24.2 26.4 FY17E 10.1 15.0 6.4 2.4 23.6 28.0 Q3FY14 198.3 38.0 19.1 6.4 5.2 0.9 17.2 1.3 Q4FY14 218.6 41.6 19.0 9.5 3.9 0.8 17.8 1.3 Q1FY15 175.6 36.0 20.5 6.7 4.2 0.9 20.2 1.5 Q3FY14 44.5 41.4 Q4FY14 44.5 45.9 Q1FY15 44.5 46.3 Quarterly performance (Standalone) (| crore) Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income PAT EPS (|) Q2FY14 166.1 33.9 20.4 6.4 4.4 0.8 16.9 1.3 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Earning estimates | crore Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT EPS 1543.1 124 / 25 44.5 0.0 9.2 2.3 338 / 109 240.4 34.3 1749.2 8.9 22.4 30.6 FY13 650.7 123.7 19.0 47.4 3.6 FY14 716.8 143.1 20.0 64.4 4.8 FY15E 822.0 174.7 21.3 92.4 6.9 FY16E 938.3 215.2 22.9 128.7 9.7 FY17E 1021.7 238.0 23.3 152.4 11.5 Shareholding trend (%) Key Shareholders Promoter group Non-institutional Q2FY14 44.3 41.5 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Technical Chart (Quarterly Bar chart) Price breakout above multi year peaks project strong 51 Technical View The stock pierced through its multi year highs around | 50 during April 2014 and remained a key out performer within FMCG space over past few months. Technically, the multi year breakout necessarily indicates new bull market. The rising peak and troughs on long term charts and positive price structure as exhibited by shallow retracements and faster and stronger rallies highlight strong appetite to own the stock The strong participation during the breakout and further rallies boost longevity of long term up trend Based on value of higher boundary of rising channel we project target of | 180 over a period of one year Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 What’s the story? CCL Products Ltd, the largest producer and exporter of bulk instant coffee from India, has expanded its capacity ~10x to ~33000 MT (FY14) in the past two decades by expanding its footprint into three geographies, India (producing since 1995), Switzerland (entered in FY11) and Vietnam (set up in FY14). The company is the largest instant coffee exporter both from India as well as Vietnam with capacity of ~20000 MT and ~10000 MT, respectively. CCL’s recent expansion in Vietnam (second largest coffee producer in the world with ~15% of global production producing ~22 million bags of coffee), however, is expected to be the key revenue and earnings growth driver for the company following the favourable location and trade benefits for trading instant coffee from Vietnam. Triggers from Vietnam... • • • CCL’s greenfield Vietnam plant for instant coffee (located in the green coffee hub of Dak Lak and expandable by further 10000 MT) is currently operating at ~25% capacity. It is expected to get scaled up to ~60% utilisation by FY15E and 80-85% by FY17E driving CCL’s consolidated sales volume to ~28000 MT by FY17E from ~19500 MT in FY14, a CAGR of ~13% in FY14-17E. The company has also shifted its 5000 MT liquid coffee capacity from India to Vietnam (expected to be commissioned in FY15) as liquid coffee is the preferred beverage, especially for Asian countries The advantage of increasing capacity in Vietnam as against India stems from the fact that Vietnam has a favourable duty structure for importing countries and taxation policy for CCL Products. The instant coffee import duty rates for China, Thailand, Korea and Japan are 8%, 60%, 8.5% and 12.3%, respectively. However, in case of import of instant coffee from Vietnam, the rates are 3.3%, 0%, 0% and 3.3%, respectively. Further, CCL’s Vietnam plant has been given a tax holiday for four years from the year its starts recording profits with further reduced tax of 5% till the fifteenth ear. We believe these benefits make exports from Vietnam comparatively attractive for importing nations as well as CCL, thereby aiding it to extend its footprint into the under-penetrated Asian markets easily. Further, as the plant scales up capacity (+90%), CCL can further expand its Vietnam plant by 10000 MT as it has the required approvals and set-up in place The capacity in Vietnam would also aid the margins of CCL by reducing the logistics cost for CCL in acquiring raw materials (~30% of its green coffee bean requirement was from Vietnam) and distribution of final product to the target Asian countries. Also, with the location of the plant in proximity to the producing country, the effective lead time for acquiring green coffee is expected to decline to ~1.5 months from two or three months earlier. Further, the transportation cost for delivering instant coffee to Asian countries (Japan, Korea) is expected to witness ~50% reduction as cost of transportation from Brazil/India to Japan is around US$3000-3600/container while for Vietnam to Japan it is only US $1200-1600/container) Apart from exporting bulk instant coffee to ~70 countries, CCL has also entered the higher margin branded coffee business (~| 2500 crore market growing at ~10%) in India through its in-house coffee brand ‘Continental’ (currently sold only in Andhra Pradesh). The branded coffee business currently accounts for ~5% (~| 30 crore) of its revenues (FY14) and is expected to gain traction as the company increases its distribution pan-India. The company has tied up with Future Retail to drive the growth of its branded coffee sales. Being a higher margin product, CCL’s margins are expected to expand further as the company launches the product nationally. Robust earnings growth + strengthening balance sheet +attractive valuations = Re-rating of stock Led by higher sales volumes from the newly commissioned capacity in Vietnam, we expect CCL’s revenues to post a healthy CAGR of 12.5% in FY14-17E to | 1021.7 crore in FY17E. Margins are estimated to increase to 23.3% by FY17E (20% in FY14) following savings in operational costs and increasing contribution of branded coffee sales. Consequently, higher margins, lower interest costs and lower taxes (CCL’s effective tax rate is expected to slip to 25.6% in FY17E from 35.3% in FY14) are expected to drive CCL’s earnings at a robust 33.3% CAGR (FY14-17E) to | 152.4 crore in FY17E. Further, with no capex requirement in the near term, reducing debt and higher free cash flows, we expect the dividend payout by CCL to remain high at ~22% (FY17E) with return ratios (RoE and RoCE) improving to 23.5% and 27.9%, from 18.3% and 19.2%, respectively. Historically, CCL Products has traded at a modest level. Led by growth in capacity, expansion into higher margin branded business, operational & tax benefits from Vietnam driving robust earnings growth, debt to equity expected to decline to 0.1x by FY17E (0.7x in FY14) and return ratios to witness improvement, we believe CCL Products is all set for a re-rating. We value the stock on a weighted average of P/E (15x FY17E EPS of | 11.4) and EV/EBITDA (9x FY17E EBITDA) ascribing a fair value of | 150-170. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3 Financial summary Profit and loss statement (Year-end March) Total Operating Income Growth (%) Raw Material Expenses Employee Expenses Marketing Expenses Administrative Expenses Other expenses Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT Exceptional items Total Tax PAT Growth (%) EPS (|) - Diluted | Crore FY14 716.8 10.2 459.7 25.8 5.1 19.9 63.2 573.7 143.1 15.7 29.1 17.1 2.6 99.6 0.0 35.1 64.4 35.8 4.8 FY15E 822.0 14.7 521.1 28.8 5.8 21.8 69.9 647.3 174.7 22.1 33.5 13.7 2.7 130.2 0.0 37.8 92.4 43.5 6.9 FY16E 938.3 14.1 582.2 32.8 6.1 22.5 79.4 723.1 215.2 23.2 36.5 9.0 5.4 175.1 0.0 46.4 128.7 39.3 9.7 FY17E 1021.7 8.9 628.3 35.2 10.2 24.0 85.9 783.7 238.0 10.6 37.8 4.4 9.0 204.8 0.0 52.4 152.4 18.4 11.5 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research (Year-end March) Profit/Loss after Tax Add: Depreciation Add: Interest (Inc)/dec in Current Assets Inc/(dec) in Current Liabilities CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets Others CF from investing activities Issue/(Buy back) of Equity Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid & dividend tax Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash | Crore FY14 64.4 29.1 17.1 5.1 1.2 116.9 -0.1 -94.7 27.5 -67.4 13.3 -17.6 -18.7 0.0 -1.7 -24.6 25.0 9.3 34.3 FY15E 92.4 33.5 13.7 -42.7 -26.1 70.8 -1.0 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 0.0 -30.0 -19.5 0.0 -13.7 -63.1 6.9 34.3 41.2 FY16E 128.7 36.5 9.0 -48.9 6.5 131.8 -1.0 -20.0 0.2 -20.8 0.0 -65.0 -23.3 0.0 -9.0 -97.4 13.6 41.2 54.8 FY17E 152.4 37.8 4.4 -20.7 10.7 184.5 -1.0 -20.0 0.4 -20.6 0.0 -75.0 -38.9 0.0 -4.4 -118.3 45.7 54.8 100.5 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E 4.8 70.3 265.2 12.0 25.8 6.9 9.5 32.0 1.3 3.1 9.7 12.4 39.9 1.5 4.1 11.5 14.3 48.5 2.5 7.6 20.0 13.9 9.0 70.2 54.4 10.4 21.3 15.8 11.2 72.0 53.0 11.0 22.9 18.7 13.7 72.0 54.0 10.0 23.3 20.0 14.9 70.0 53.5 10.5 18.3 19.2 21.0 21.7 22.2 23.5 24.2 26.4 28.4 23.6 28.0 32.1 2.4 12.2 2.4 2.2 0.4 16.7 9.8 2.1 1.9 3.6 12.0 7.6 1.7 1.6 2.9 10.1 6.4 1.5 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.7 2.9 1.7 1.2 0.5 4.5 2.5 0.7 0.3 4.9 2.8 0.3 0.1 5.0 3.0 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Balance sheet (Year-end March) Liabilities Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Long Term Borrowings Long Term Provisions Other Non-current Liabilities Total Liabilities Assets Gross Block Less: Acc Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Non Current Investments LT Loans & Advances/Others Current Assets Inventory Debtors Cash Loans & Advances Other Current Assets Current Liabilities Creditors Provisions Short Term Borrowings Other CL Net Current Assets Total Assets Cash flow statement | Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E 26.6 326.2 352.8 240.4 0.0 23.3 616.5 26.6 399.2 425.8 210.4 0.0 24.3 660.5 26.6 504.6 531.2 145.4 0.0 25.3 701.9 26.6 618.0 644.6 70.4 0.0 26.3 741.4 521.1 159.9 361.2 38.9 1.6 4.1 541.1 193.5 347.6 18.0 2.6 5.8 561.1 229.9 331.2 18.0 3.6 6.6 581.1 267.7 313.4 18.0 4.6 7.2 137.9 106.8 34.3 39.9 0.5 162.2 119.4 41.2 45.8 0.5 185.1 138.8 54.8 52.2 0.6 195.9 149.8 100.5 51.1 0.6 20.5 21.5 0.0 66.6 210.8 616.5 24.8 24.8 0.0 32.9 286.6 660.5 25.7 25.7 0.0 37.5 342.6 701.9 29.4 29.4 0.0 40.9 398.3 741.4 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Key ratios (Year-end March) Per share data (|) EPS (Diluted) Cash EPS* BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Net Sales PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research * Company split and issued bonus shares in FY14 thereby increasing the number of shares to 13.3 crore from 1.3 crore prior to that Page 4 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Sanjay Manyal (MBA) , Parineeta Rajgarhia (MBA), research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc. 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