ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Contents (Click on the topic) 1. Chana (Gram) recap 2. Market Rates and Arrivals in the Domestic Market 3. Weather 4. Spread and Forward curves 5. Chart and outlook 6. Disclaimer 1 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Chana/Gram Recap NCDEX Chana Previous Close Open High 10 MT Oct-14 2828 2802 2833 2843 Nov-14 2922 2901 2924 2935 Dec-14 2979 2959 2982 2988 Jan-15 3003 2986 3024 3024 Feb-15 3015 3029 3034 3034 Low Net Chg. % Chg. Volume % Vol. Chg. 2796 2896 2955 2983 3020 -26 -21 -20 -17 14 -0.92 -0.72 -0.67 -0.57 0.46 53020 81370 12740 2280 80 -30.42 -13.85 -26.95 -44.39 60.00 OI OI Chg. 36130 -16690 107150 -7000 27630 4750 4000 1310 210 80 Volume Net change = -42750, OI Net change = -17550 Spread Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Nov-14 Dec-14 -99 -157 -58 NCDEX Chana Previous Close Open High 1 MT Oct-14 2818 2812 2820 2830 Nov-14 2922 2902 2922 2934 Dec-14 2980 2960 2996 2996 Jan-15 -184 -85 -27 Feb-15 -227 -128 -70 -43 Low Net Chg. % Chg. Volume % Vol. Chg. OI OI Chg. 2780 2896 2968 -6 -20 -20 -0.21 -0.68 -0.67 79 870 4 -71.48 -21.05 -42.86 114 305 13 -79 -18 Unch Chana futures witnessed profit booking on Friday. Total volumes and OI declined on Friday compared to previous trading day. Arrivals increased in the spot markets and capped upside. Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 10 October 2014 was 55,186 MT. NCDEX Chana Indore – NCDEX Mumbai Yellow Peas Spot spread is trading at Rs. 392.4/100 Kg. As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses is forecasted to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13. They added that production of Tur is forecasted to be 2.74 million MT compared to 3.29 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 3.02 million MT in 2012-13. Production of Urad is forecasted to be 1.15 million MT compared to 1.07 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 1.43 million MT in 2012-13. According to Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), Indian imports of Pulses were 1,067,445 MT during April-July 2014. This is slightly lower compared 1,069,458 MT during April-July 2013. Imports were 311,121 MT in July 2014 compared to 319,650 MT in July 2013. According to Statpub, international lentil markets eased slightly as the North American harvest started to wrap up. Saskatchewan's harvest was 96% complete as of October 5, compared to 100% at this time last year and the recent average of 94.2% complete by the first week of October. 2 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Field pea markets were generally unchanged on the week against steady export movement from both Canada and the United States. This year's harvest is wrapping up in both countries. Canada's now 92% complete, compared to almost 99% by this time during the past five years and fully complete at this time last year. Dry edible bean prices finished the week on an easier note in both international and North American markets. Excellent harvest progress in the United States has increased the supply of product available to processors. Bigger dry edible bean crops in the United States and Canada have pushed available supplies of dry edible beans for the coming season above the recent average for the continent. In its latest crop report the USDA pegged bean output in the United States at 1.317 million MT, while Statistics Canada had pegged Canadian output at 300,500 MT last month. By contrast, dry bean production in Mexico is expected to be down for the coming season, dropping 10% to 1.2 million MT. Combined production across the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region is up 6% over last year at a forecast 2.817 million MT. Carry-in stocks from the previous marketing year are down from last year, with the result the increase in the available supply of beans is only 1% at 2.93 million MT. Physical Market Rates of Pulses in Domestic Market Date 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 Commodity Chana Indore Chana Ganjbasoda Chana Dewas Chana Jhansi Chana Kanpur Chana Bikaner Chana Dollar Indore Chana Dollar Dewas Tur Kanpur Urad Kanpur Gram Desi Delhi NCDEX Spot Gram Kantawala Indore NCDEX Spot Gram Desi Bikaner NCDEX Spot Masoor Indore NCDEX Spot Yellow Peas Kanpur NCDEX Spot Yellow Peas Mumbai NCDEX Spot Rate 2620 2475 2452 2400 2675 2605 5170 4520 4120 4100 2924 2825 2780 5594 2775 2433 Units INR/100 Kg Source: Reuters 3 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Market Arrivals of Chickpea (Chana) in Domestic Markets (Source: Agmarknet) Arrivals in MT as on 10 Oct 2014 Bengal Grams (Chana) Koilkunta 150.00 Dahod 56.80 Jam Khambalia 2.00 Rajkot 96.00 Bokaro 16.00 Chaibasa 13.50 Jamshedpur 3.00 Ranchi 41.00 Bangalore 61.00 Bamora 3.70 Bina 38.40 Dewas 8.00 Gotegaon 6.50 Jeerapur 3.90 Kareli 161.80 Pachaur 7.00 Ratlam 1.00 Bhilwara 1.00 Bikaner 45.20 Chomu 1.70 Gangapur City 7.70 Jodhpur 5.00 Kishan Renwal 27.60 Kishangarh Renwal 1.10 Pilli Banga 6.00 Achalda 1.80 Agra 62.00 Aligarh 40.00 Auraiya 50.00 Baberu 3.00 Ballia 9.00 Baraut 3.00 Bharwari 6.00 Bindki 40.00 Buland Shahr 6.50 Chandoli 1.50 Dadri 15.00 Dibiapur 6.00 Etah 1.60 Etawah 3.50 Gazipur 3.00 Gorakhpur 72.00 Haathras 5.00 Market Center 4 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Arrivals in MT Contd…. Hapur 16.00 Jahanabad 5.00 Jasvantnagar 2.50 Javer 2.00 Khair 8.00 Khurja 2.70 Mirzapur 2.00 Muradabad 6.00 Muzzafarnagar 7.00 Naugarh 4.00 Partaval 5.00 Pilibhit 2.00 Saharanpur 9.00 Sambhal 2.00 Shahjahanpur 2.30 Kabuli Chana (Chickpeas-White) Indore 250.00 Khategaon 9.87 Ratlam 64.30 Ujjain 36.00 Weather Source: IMD 5 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Spreads and Forward Curves NCDEX Chana Spreads Source: Reuters Historical c2-c3 Spread Seasonality Source: Reuters Comments: - The October – November (c1 – c2) spread settled at -99. The November – December (c2 – c3) spread settled at -58. The December – January (c3 – c4) spread settled at -27. The January – February (c4 – c5) spread settled at -43. 6 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] NCDEX Chana Forward Curves Source: Reuters Historical c1 Seasonality Chart Source: Reuters 7 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Charts & Outlook Chana (10 MT) Source: Reuters Source: Reuters NCDEX Chana November 10 MT (2901) Trade Recommendation: - Buy in the range 2920-2925 with targets 2980-3000 with a stop loss at 2846. The call is active. Comments: - Key support is at 2868. Key resistance is at 2960. A break above could push prices up to 3000. 8 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Chana (1 MT) Source: Reuters NCDEX Chana November 1 MT (2902) Trade Recommendation: - None. Comments: - Key support is at 2874. Key resistance is at 2950. A break above could push prices to 2980. Outlook: Delay in planting and declining stocks at the exchange warehouse could support prices. Uncertainty amongst traders regarding import duty situation could continue to keep prices volatile in the next few days. Ample supply in the domestic markets could continue to limit upside. 9 ADMISI Commodity Research October 13, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), ADM Investor Services International Limited (U.K) nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private Limited prior written consent. 10
© Copyright 2024