ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Indian Soybean Complex Recap NCDEX Soybean JAN5 FEB5 APR5 JUN5 PCP Close Open High Low 3340 3442 3516 3580 3373 3461 3510 3559 3335 3428 3499 3568 3380 3499 3544 3595 3334 3412 3476 3536 Net Chg 33 19 -6 -21 % Vol Chg 48.42 39.94 53.38 17.83 % Volume Chg 0.99 6590 0.55 73410 -0.17 23620 -0.59 3040 OI 14750 87440 24820 5740 OI Chg -5050 -4810 1280 130 Net OI Change = -8450 Spread Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar-2015 NCDEX Soy oil JAN5 FEB5 APR5 JUN5 PCP Close Feb-2015 -88 Open High Low 665.3 670.25 670.2 652.35 652.7 649.4 625.65 622.6 625.3 609.95 597.85 602.95 673 654.2 625.6 603.5 667 649.4 619.1 596 Apr-2015 -137 -49 Net Chg 4.95 0.35 -3.05 -12.1 Jun-2015 -186 -98 -49 % Volume Chg 0.74 17740 0.05 40875 -0.49 17325 -1.98 13465 % Vol Chg 43.41 -11.86 53.45 17.75 OI 20460 73720 50870 45430 OI Chg -3485 -4850 3405 5060 Net OI Change = 130 Spread Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Apr-2015 Feb-2015 17.55 Apr-2015 47.65 30.10 Jun-2015 72.40 54.85 24.75 Indian RM Seed Recap NCDEX RM Seed JAN5 APR5 MAY5 JUN5 JUL5 PCP Close Open High Low 4068 3547 3587 3668 3687 4075 3524 3564 3603 3643 4056 3512 3548 3593 3640 4080 3536 3576 3603 3640 4084 3550 3585 3618 3648 Net. Chg. 7 -23 -23 -65 -44 % Volume Chg 0.17 360 -0.65 28520 -0.64 4510 -1.77 1280 -1.19 40 % Vol. Chg. -68.42 -48.90 -31.67 43.82 - OI 6400 37830 5600 1580 130 OI Chg. -100 180 -520 60 - Net OI Change = -380 Spread Jan-2015 Apr-2015 May-2015 Apr-2015 551 May-2015 511 -40 Jun-2015 472 -79 -39 1 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Indian Soybean and Soy oil remained mixed with near month and active contracts ends higher, while rest of the contracts falls on Wednesday. Soy complex prices continued to be influenced by strong Rupee which continued to appreciate today. RM Seed prices falls on Wednesday. Downside limited as ICE Canola ended firm. Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year. Latest sowing data shows, RM Seed was sowed in 6.48 million hectares across India vs. 6.94 million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year. Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COOIT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17 million MT. According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at 11.82 million MT. Soy meal exports from India rose to 193,832 MT in December from 110,806 MT in November. India's oil meal exports in December 2014 were 389K MT vs. 188K MT in previous month. Veg. oil imports in November 2014 were at 1.149 million MT vs. 0.92 million MT in Nov 2013. NCDEX delivery data showed that total soybean and RM seed deliveries were 1880 MT and 1730 MT respectively. NCDEX Warehouse Inventory 12-Jan-15 Soybean - Akola 961 Soybean - Indore 12469 Soybean - Kota 870 Soybean - Vidisha 710 Soybean - Mandsaur 120 TOTAL SOYBEAN 15130 RM Seed - Alwar RM Seed - Jaipur RM Seed - Kota RM Seed - Sri Ganganagar TOTAL RM Seed 221 1859 7985 128 10193 13-Jan-15 961 11470 870 710 14011 221 1939 8165 128 10453 2 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Date 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 India Physical Market Rates Commodity Soybean - Indore - NCDEX Soybean - Kota - NCDEX Soybean - Nagpur - NCDEX Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA Mustard Seed - Jaipur - NCDEX Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Rate 3392.00 3270.75 3360.00 677.00 665.00 681.25 29000.00 28700.00 460.00 280.00 4210.75 770.00 Units Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg Rs. / MT Rs. / MT USD / MT USD / MT Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg Market Arrivals of Soybean Soybean Arrivals for 15 January 2015 in MT Gandai 5.00 Basava Kalayana 48.00 Bhalki 50.00 Dharwar 225.00 Gulbarga 110.00 Haveri 350.00 Kalagategi 130.00 Burhanpur 1.00 Chhapiheda 1.80 Indore 163.20 Khargone 20.00 Mandsaur 40.00 Momanbadodiya 6.00 Piplya 1.20 Sagar 46.00 Sonkatch 1.00 Ausa 12.70 Jintur 6.50 Nagpur 4.00 Shrirampur 5.80 Bazpur 29.98 Rudrapur 74.50 (Source - Dept. of Agriculture GoI) 3 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] International Markets Recap CBOT Soybean MAR5 MAY5 JUL5 AUG5 SEP5 Previous 1004 1010 1015.75 1014.5 999 CBOT Soy meal MAR5 MAY5 JUL5 AUG5 SEP5 CBOT Soy oil MAR5 MAY5 JUL5 AUG5 SEP5 Close Open High Low 1009.25 1005 1011.5 992.75 1014.5 1010.25 1016.75 998.5 1020 1015.5 1022.25 1004 1019.25 1014.25 1019.75 1003.25 1003.75 996 1000 988.5 Net Chg % Chg. 5.25 4.50 4.25 4.75 4.75 0.52 0.44 0.42 0.47 0.47 Previous Close Open High Low Net Chg % Chg. 333.6 328.3 327.7 327.2 326.1 335.5 330.2 329.8 329.4 328.7 333.1 327.9 327 326.9 326 336.4 331.5 330.5 329.9 327.7 329 323.5 323.2 323 322.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.6 0.57 0.58 0.64 0.67 0.79 Previous Close Open High Low Net Chg % Chg. 32.54 32.68 32.86 32.86 32.84 32.82 32.95 33.11 33.08 33.04 32.69 32.83 32.95 33.06 32.96 32.87 33.02 33.2 33.16 33.04 32.49 32.65 32.83 32.83 32.87 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.22 0.2 0.85 0.82 0.76 0.67 0.61 CBOT Soybean complex rose for a second session on expectations of strong demand. Buyers stepped into the market after weakness in overnight trading. Pakistani importers bought about 66,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. Crushers in that country are switching from canola and rapeseed, European traders said. ICE Canada canola futures mostly rose on Wednesday, supported by strength in soy oil and weakness in the Canadian dollar. Private exporters reported sales of 202,750 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations, including 102,750 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year that began Sept. 1, and 100,000 MT for delivery in 2015/2016, the USDA said. U.S. commercial handlers were holding the largest ever soybean supplies as of Dec. 1 following last year's record harvest, while South American farmers were likely to gather their biggest soy crop in history, the USDA data showed. 4 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Date 15-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 Physical Market Rates - Soybean Commodity Brazil Soybean January - FOB Paranagua Argentina Soybean May - FOB Up River China Imported Soybean Dalian USA Soybean January - FOB Gulf Date 15-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 Physical Market Rates - Soy meal Commodity Brazil Soy meal January - FOB Paranagua Argentina Soy meal February - FOB Up River China HQ Soy meal Dalian Rate 387.90 415.57 3300.00 Units $ / MT $ / MT CNY / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil Commodity Brazil Soy Oil January - FOB Paranagua Argentina Soy Oil February - FOB Up River China Standard Soy Oil Dalian Rate 795.20 800.72 5580.00 Units $ / MT $ / MT CNY / MT Date 15-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 14-Jan-15 Rate 391.55 385.75 3300.00 403.80 Units $ / MT $ / MT CNY / MT $ / MT Weather Source: IMD 5 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Charts & Outlook NCDEX Source: Reuters NCDEX Soybean February (3461) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 3405. Key resistance is at 3497. Source: Reuters NCDEX Soy Oil February (652.6) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 647.10. Key resistance is at 660.65. 6 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Source: Reuters NCDEX RM Seed December (3524) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support for RM Seed is at 3500. Key resistances are at 3559. Indian Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound to firm, tracking firm overseas prices. Rupee continues to appreciate on Thursday and could limit upside in soy oil prices. RM Seed prices could trade firm, tracking firm overseas prices. However, fresh arrivals could limit upside. CBOT Source: Reuters CBOT Soybean March (1015.5) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 1004.75 and 990.75. Key resistances are 1025.25 and 1042.00. 7 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Source: Reuters CBOT Soy meal March (336.6) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 329.1. Key resistance is at 340.2. Source: Reuters CBOT Soy oil March (33.30) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 32.75. Key resistance is at 33.51. Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound to firm on firm export demand. Investors will monitor the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture export data on soybeans later in the day. 8 ADMISI Commodity Research January 15, 2015 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. 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