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ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Contents (Click on the topic)
1.
Chana (Gram) recap
2.
Market Rates and Arrivals in the Domestic Market
3.
Weather
4.
Spread and Forward curves
5.
Chart and outlook
6.
Disclaimer
1
ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Chana (Gram) Recap
Chana
Previous Close Open High
10 MT
Dec-14
3056
3126 3087 3140
Jan-15
3185
3229 3189 3249
Feb-15
3224
3259 3237 3282
Apr-15
3364
3397 3379 3420
May-15
3413
3443 3436 3457
Low
3087
3189
3236
3379
3432
Net
Chg.
70
44
35
33
30
%
Volume
Chg.
2.29
780
1.38
82820
1.09
22140
0.98
8910
0.88
530
% Vol.
Chg.
-87.40
-0.20
-6.97
-32.91
-43.62
OI
890
85540
21950
19540
1100
OI
Chg.
-2710
-4640
1830
1550
200
Volume Net change = -12020, OI Net change = -3770
Spread
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
-103
Chana
Previous Close Open High
2 MT
Jan-15
3174
3232 3210 3244
Feb-15
3224
3268 3268 3268
Apr-15
3200
3328 3296 3328
Feb-15
-133
-30
Low
3206
3268
3296
Apr-15
-271
-168
-138
Net
Chg.
58
44
128
May-15
-317
-214
-184
-46
%
Volume
Chg.
1.83
182
1.36
2
4.00
4
% Vol.
Chg.
21.33
0.00
-
OI
Chg.
152
-8
4
2
2
2
OI
Volume Net change = 36, OI Net change = -4
Spread
Jan-15
Feb-15










Feb-15
-36
Apr-15
-96
-60
Chana futures end higher amid report of decline in sowing area and crop output.
Total volumes and OI declined on Wednesday compared to previous trading day.
Meanwhile, the Department of Revenue in consultation with the Ministry of Agriculture proposed
a 10% import duty on Gram (Chana) yesterday.
According to officials, while this was a long standing proposal of the Ministry of Agriculture,
Revenue Department has taken the initiative this time following sharp decline in prices of this
commodity. This supported prices.
Officials added that the step was taken to curb cheap imports into the domestic markets.
NCDEX Chana Indore – NCDEX Mumbai Yellow Peas Spot spread is trading at Rs. 750.35/100
Kg.
According to the ministry of Agriculture, the area under sowing of Gram is at 71.51 lakh hectares
this year while the last year’s figure was 85.75 lakh hectares.
Area coverage under Total Pulses is at 111.13 lakh hectares while the last year’s sowing area
coverage was 124.78 lakh hectares. Official weekly data will be released tomorrow.
As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses is
forecasted to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates)
and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13.
They added that production of Tur is forecasted to be 2.74 million MT compared to 3.29 million
MT (4th Advance estimates) and 3.02 million MT in 2012-13.
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ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014




Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Production of Urad is forecasted to be 1.15 million MT compared to 1.07 million MT (4th Advance
estimates) and 1.43 million MT in 2012-13. Pulses Rabi target is 12.50 million MT in 2014.15.
According to Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), Indian
imports of Pulses were 1,455,505 MT during April - August 2014. This is higher compared
1,319,186 MT during April - August 2013. Imports were 388,063 MT in August 2014 compared to
249,730 MT in August 2013.
According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) November estimate, Canadian Dry
Edible beans production this year will total 292,000 MT from 136,000 hectares, same as October
estimate. However, imports are forecast to increase to 70,000 MT from the October estimate at
60,000 MT.
Dry Pea production this year will total 3.52 million MT from 1.49 million hectares, same as
October estimate. Lentil production this year will total 1.75 million MT from 1.16 million
hectares, same as October estimate. Chickpea production this year will total 141,000 MT from
71,000 hectares, same as October estimate.
Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved
warehouses in MT
Location 16-Dec-14 14-Dec-14 Net Chg. % Chg.
Bikaner
17,064
16,704
360
2.16
Delhi
17,763
17,214
549
3.19
Indore
4,862
4,862
Unch
Total
39,689
38,780
909
2.34
Quantity Allocated and Delivered of Chana at NCDEX
approved warehouses in December 2014
Delivery Center
Allocations
Deliveries
Bikaner
1,180
690
Delhi
5,190
4,070
Indore
2340
260
Total
8,710
5,020
3
ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Physical Market Rates of Pulses in Market
Date
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
Commodity
Chana Indore
Chana Ganjbasoda
Chana Dewas
Chana Vidisha
Chana Ujjain
Chana Jhansi
Chana Kanpur
Chana Bikaner
Chana Dollar Indore
Chana Dollar Dewas
Tur Kanpur
Urad Kanpur
Moong Indore
Gram Desi Delhi NCDEX Spot
Gram Kantawala Indore NCDEX Spot
Gram Desi Bikaner NCDEX Spot
Masoor Indore NCDEX Spot
Yellow Peas Kanpur NCDEX Spot
Yellow Peas Mumbai NCDEX Spot
Rate
2750
2691
2460
2721
2485
2665
2735
2754
4400
4275
4350
5040
7100
3200
3080
3080
6000
2750
2351
Units
INR/100 Kg
Market Arrivals of Chickpea (Chana) in Domestic Markets
Arrivals in MT as
on 17 Dec 2014
Bengal Grams (Chana)
Koilkunta
178.50
Bemetara
9.00
Dahod
31.10
Jam Khambalia
2.00
Chaibasa
12.00
Hazaribagh
3.60
Ranchi
67.20
Bangalore
35.00
Bidar
3.00
Bijapur
13.00
Gadag
3.00
Gulbarga
92.00
Raichur
2.00
Tarikere
12.00
Biaora
4.40
Gotegaon
18.00
Market Center
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ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Arrivals Contd….
Mungawali
9.50
Jalgaon
3.60
Baran
7.00
Bikaner
12.50
Gangapur City
2.60
Jodhpur
3.00
Ramaganj Mandi
2.10
Agra
38.00
Aligarh
20.00
Allahabad
15.00
Anandnagar
6.00
Auraiya
8.00
Bareilly
11.80
Bharthna
2.00
Bindki
24.00
Buland Shahr
8.00
Chandoli
1.50
Chhibramau
3.20
Chorichora
1.20
Devariya
15.00
Etah
2.00
Etawah
4.40
Gorakhpur
50.00
Haathras
10.00
Jafarganj
4.00
Jasra
2.50
Kannauj
4.00
Khaga
4.00
Khurja
2.70
Kopaganj
1.40
Lakhimpur
1.60
Muradabad
2.00
Naugarh
7.50
Partaval
8.00
Pilibhit
2.00
Saharanpur
11.00
Sambhal
3.00
Shahjahanpur
2.00
Siyana
4.50
Varanasi
11.00
Kabuli Chana (Chickpeas-White)
Indore
201.90
Source: Dept. of Agriculture GoI
5
ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Weather
Source: IMD
Source: IMD
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Spreads and Forward Curves
NCDEX Chana Spreads
Source: Reuters
Historical c2-c3 Spread Seasonality
Source: Reuters
Comments: - The December – January (c1 – c2) spread settled at -103. The January – February (c2 – c3)
spread settled at -30. The February – April (c3 – c4) spread settled at -138. The April – May (c4 – c5)
spread settled at -46.
7
ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
NCDEX Chana Forward Curves
Source: Reuters
Historical c1 Seasonality Chart
Source: Reuters
8
ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Charts & Outlook
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Chana January 10 MT (3230)
Trade Recommendation: - Buy in the range 3115-3120 with targets 3175-3185 and a stop loss at 3080.
Book profits.
Comments: - Support is at 3120. Resistance is at 3250. A break and close above could push prices to 3300
levels.
Outlook: Slow sowing progress could support prices. Weather remains dry and could continue to remain
key factor to watch out for the next few weeks. However, prices could be influenced by speculation of
import duty news. Rupee has strengthened today and could influence prices.
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ADMISI Commodity Research
December 18, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER:
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