ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Indian Soybean Complex Recap NCDEX Soybean NOV4 DEC4 JAN5 FEB5 PCP Close Open High Low 3273 3328 3374 3433 3289 3346 3398 3452 3278 3305 3355 3414 3319 3376 3424 3475 3236 3301 3355 3408 Net Chg 16 18 24 19 % Chg 0.49 0.54 0.71 0.55 % Vol Chg -34.01 -24.09 -35.05 -59.17 Volume 91270 75100 12970 2360 OI 76270 90450 32230 7670 OI Chg 740 6300 680 690 Net OI Change = 8410 Spread Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 NCDEX Soy oil NOV4 DEC4 JAN5 FEB5 PCP Close Open Dec-2014 -57 High Jan-2015 -109 -52 Low 599.1 599.85 598 602.5 596 603.7 607.05 602.5 608.5 602.5 602.25 607.75 601.35 609.8 601.25 603.3 608.6 603 611.45 603 Net Chg 0.75 3.35 5.5 5.3 Feb-2015 -163 -106 -54 % Chg 0.13 0.55 0.91 0.88 Volume 53330 49495 12940 1865 % Vol Chg -32.29 -33.17 -45.30 48.02 OI 53340 78465 38715 14170 OI Chg -14615 6445 3030 -305 Net OI Change = -5140 Spread Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 Dec-2014 -7.20 Jan-2015 -7.90 -0.70 Feb-2015 -8.75 -1.55 -0.85 Indian RM Seed Recap NCDEX RM Seed NOV4 DEC4 JAN5 PCP Close Open High Low 3742 3768 3762 3737 3763 3764 3722 3754 3755 3727 3755 3756 3745 3773 3775 Net. % Volume Chg. Chg -5 -0.13 14240 -5 -0.13 6330 2 0.05 1320 % Vol. Chg. -35.59 -47.82 -60.95 OI 27870 22420 5990 OI Chg. -630 730 -50 Net OI Change = 50 Spread Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Dec-2014 -26 Jan-2015 -27 -1 1 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Indian Soybean and Soy oil moved higher on Friday, tracking gains in the international markets. The Rupee appreciated on Friday and limited upside in soy oil. RM Seed ended flat on Friday. Traders estimate this year’s crop between 9 – 10 million MT. According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at - 11.82 million MT. Soy meal exports from India fell to 868 MT in September from 2,778 MT in August. India's oil meal exports in September 2014 were 82K MT vs. 136K MT in previous month. According to SEA, India's vegetable oil imports in September were 1.01 million MT from 1.32 million MT in August. Soybean - Akola Soybean - Nagpur Soybean - Indore Soybean - Kota TOTAL Soybean NCDEX Warehouse Inventory 29-Oct-14 0 0 91 NA 91 RM Seed - Alwar RM Seed - Jaipur RM Seed - Kota RM Seed - Sri Ganganagar RM Seed - Bikaner RM Seed - Hapur RM Seed - Bharatpur TOTAL RM Seed Date 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 India Physical Market Rates Commodity Soybean - Indore - NCDEX Soybean - Kota - NCDEX Soybean - Nagpur - NCDEX Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA Mustard Seed - Jaipur - NCDEX Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX 301 872 583 111 414 30 20 2331 Rate 3237.00 3150.00 3400.00 607.60 610.00 618.00 29850.00 28725.00 485.00 240.00 3716.45 701.25 31-Oct-14 0 0 427 0 427 301 171 603 81 414 30 20 1620 Units Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg Rs. / MT Rs. / MT USD / MT USD / MT Rs. / 100 Kg Rs. / 10 Kg 2 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Market Arrivals of Soybean (Source - Dept. of Agriculture GoI) Soybean Arrivals for 31 October 2014 in MT Gandai 10.00 Kheragarh 108.40 Kodinar 1.80 Bidar 20.00 Dharwar 5.00 Gulbarga 10.00 Kalagategi 5.00 Nippani 3.00 Sankeshwar 91.00 Agar 1800.00 Akodia 2937.00 Ashoknagar 1350.00 Ashta 2226.40 Badnagar 13981.00 Badod 176.50 Bamora 142.00 Banapura 160.50 Banda 4.00 Bankhedi 1.10 Berachha 116.80 Betul 286.00 Biaora 669.09 Bina 367.50 Binaganj 124.47 Burhanpur 110.00 Chhapiheda 123.00 Chhatarpur 15.00 Deori 54.00 Dewas 2831.70 Dhar 1212.80 Gairatganj 11.80 Gautampura 21.50 Gorakhpur 50.00 Gotegaon 30.40 Ichhawar 151.50 Indore 1990.70 Itarsi 470.80 Jabalpur 14.10 Jaora 669.80 Javad 1.60 Jeerapur 43.40 Jhabua 6.20 Kalapipal 3113.00 Kareli 73.70 Khargone 156.80 Khategaon 1892.53 Khirakiya 513.70 Khujner 189.20 Khurai 212.40 3 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Kumbhraj Lashkar Lateri Machalpur Mahidpur Manawar Nagda Nalkehda Narsinghgarh Neemuch Obedullaganj Pandhana Patharia Rahatgarh Rajgarh Ratlam Rehati Rewa Sagar Sailana Sanawad Sanwer Sendhwa Seoni Shahpura Shamshabad Sheopurkalan Shujalpur Sonkatch Taal Tarana Timarni Udaipura Vijaypur Ahmedpur Akole Ausa Deoulgaon Raja Nagpur Shrirampur Umarga Wardha Bhilwara Chhabra Khanpur Kota Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] 99.20 4.00 142.00 40.00 1372.07 20.00 557.10 3563.00 383.50 300.00 11.20 253.20 281.00 41.50 263.70 1128.60 50.00 42.00 866.30 10.50 101.70 540.70 9.10 7.50 1.40 180.50 44.60 10511.80 216.60 441.84 1668.00 136.50 79.00 20.00 37.50 5.80 71.40 54.30 40.70 4.20 4.00 60.60 2.60 120.00 75.00 1252.00 4 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] International Markets Recap CBOT Soybean NOV4 JAN5 MAR5 MAY5 JUL5 Previous Close Open 1024.25 1029.75 1036 1042.5 1048.25 1046.5 1049.25 1053.25 1058 1062.75 1023 1028.25 1034.25 1040.75 1047.25 CBOT Soy meal DEC4 JAN5 MAR5 MAY5 JUL5 CBOT Soy oil DEC4 JAN5 MAR5 MAY5 JUL5 High Low 1052.25 1012.25 1054 1016.5 1058.25 1023 1062.75 1029.75 1067.25 1035 Net Chg % Chg. 22.25 19.50 17.25 15.50 14.50 2.13 1.86 1.64 1.47 1.36 Previous Close Open High Low Net Chg % Chg. 380 361.1 342.5 338 338.7 389 366.7 346.2 340.9 341.7 380.6 360.5 343 338 339.1 394.7 371 349.5 344.3 344.9 375.4 354.7 337.3 333.5 334.5 9 5.6 3.7 2.9 3 2.31 1.53 1.07 0.85 0.88 Previous Close Open High Low Net Chg % Chg. 34.31 34.54 34.78 34.98 35.2 34.8 35.02 35.24 35.44 35.66 34.3 34.55 34.84 34.94 35.18 34.95 35.16 35.39 36.1 35.77 34.01 34.25 34.49 34.65 34.86 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.46 1.41 1.37 1.31 1.30 1.29 CBOT U.S. Soy complex ended higher on Friday buoyed by a slow start to a record harvest and traffic congestion problems on the country's railroads. Record U.S. soybean harvests have boosted demand for hopper cars already in short supply, while rail traffic has slowed on tracks clogged with tankers hauling oil produced from fields in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. Prices were also influenced after surges in U.S. export sales. Soybeans are mostly used to manufacture vegetable oil and to feed hogs and chickens. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that some 1.3 million MT of soybeans from the current crop year were sold overseas in the week ended Oct. 23, with China the largest buyer. According to CFTC CoT report, funds bought an estimated 16,000 CBOT soybean contracts, 8,000 soy meal contracts. 5 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Date 3-Nov-14 1-Nov-14 31-Oct-14 1-Nov-14 Date 3-Nov-14 1-Nov-14 31-Oct-14 Date 3-Nov-14 1-Nov-14 31-Oct-14 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Physical Market Rates - Soybean Commodity Brazil Soybean October - FOB Paranagua Argentina Soybean April/May - FOB Up River China Imported Soybean Dalian USA Soybean November - FOB Gulf Rate 464.11 410.64 3700.00 445.10 Units $ / MT $ / MT CNY / MT $ / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy meal Commodity Brazil Soy meal October - FOB Paranagua Argentina Soy meal November - FOB Up River China HQ Soy meal Dalian Rate 466.30 469.03 3780.00 Units $ / MT $ / MT CNY / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil Commodity Brazil Soy Oil October - FOB Paranagua Argentina Soy Oil November - FOB Up River China Standard Soy Oil Dalian Rate 795.90 800.28 6050.00 Units $ / MT $ / MT CNY / MT Weather Source: IMD 6 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Charts & Outlook NCDEX Source: Reuters NCDEX Soybean December (3346) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 3241. Key resistance is at 3411. Source: Reuters NCDEX Soy Oil December (607.05) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 597.80. Key resistance is at 613.50. 7 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Source: Reuters NCDEX RM Seed December (3763) Trade Recommendation: - Buy above 3715, S/L 3695, TGT 3760 - 3795. Book profits. Key support for RM Seed is at 3750. Key resistance is at 3800. Indian Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound. Soybean chart is overbought and could witness some profit booking. Weak rupee could cap downside of soy oil prices. RM Seed prices could trade weak. CBOT Source: Reuters CBOT Soybean January (1043.00) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 1019.75. Key resistances are 1060.75. 8 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] Source: Reuters CBOT Soy meal December (379.4) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 374.7. Key resistance is at 399.0. Source: Reuters CBOT Soy oil December (34.52) Trade Recommendation: - None. Key support is at 34.45. Key resistance is at 34.93. Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound to firm as slower than expected harvest could support prices. However favorable weather in Brazil to help the planting of the soybean crop and dry weather in the U.S. allows its harvest to progress, could cap upside. 9 ADMISI Commodity Research November 03, 2014 Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected] DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. 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