15-12-2011 Anvendelse af biomasse i scenarier for 100% vedvarende energi Osramhuset, København 8. december, 2011 Lektor Brian Vad Mathiesen Institut for Planlægning, Aalborg Universitet people.plan.aau.dk/~bvm/ ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Fire årtier med et stabilt energiforbrug World Primary Energy Consumption 400 RES 1000 PJ 300 Danish Primary Energy Supply PJ Nuclear 200 Ngas Oil 100 0 1900 1000 Coal 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 800 600 400 200 0 1972 Oil 1980 Coal 1988 Natural Gas 1996 2004 2007 Renewable Energy ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 1 15-12-2011 40 års aktiv energiplanlægning • Mere end 40 års aktiv politik på energiområdet, præget af konsensus med forskelige fokusområder • Den aktive energipolitik blev sat på stand-by i 2001 • Nyt mål i 2006: Mål om 100% vedvarende energi i Danmark • Alternative energiplaner og offentlig debat i mere end 40 år ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Vi ved allerede meget Fælles udfordringer: • Mere vind i el‐ systemet • Flere el‐ og varmebesparelser i husholdninger og industri • Mere el i transporten • Større effektivitet i konverteringen • Større system integration ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 2 15-12-2011 Et muligt scenario ud af mange mulige: • IDAs Klimaplan 2050 fra 2009 – Består af • Hovedrapport (også på engelsk) • Teknisk baggrundsreport (også på engelsk) • 9 andre faglige notater ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Teknisk sammenligning i IDA Primær energiforsyning i IDA 2015, IDA 2030 og IDA 2050, PJ 1.000 900 800 700 Eksport 600 VE‐el Solvarme 500 Biomasse 400 Naturgas 300 Olie 200 Kul 100 0 2015 2030 Reference 2050 2015 2030 2050 IDA ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 3 15-12-2011 The aim of the 100% renewable energy scenarios in CEESA • Create a variety of 100% renewable energy system scenarios for Denmark. • Analyse and integrate the transport sector into such systems. • Analyse the effects of using biomass resources in 100% renewable energy systems considering the limitations in the biomass resources. • Use energy system analysis to integrate flexibility and smart energy systems solutions into the electricity, heating and transport sectors as well as into the fuel supply to gas grids which utilise renewable energy. • Analyse the effects on fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions. • Analyse the transition towards such a system from today until 2050. • Identify the socio‐economic consequences of such scenarios, incl. job effects, commercial potentials, health effects and others. ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Biomass potentials identified in CEESA 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Cereals converted to energy crops Extreme forest management New cereal cultivars Cereals converted to energy crops (1000 ha) Biomass supply (PJ) Energy crops on surplus area Current resources Area converted • CEESA presents different biomass potential scenarios. • 240 PJ is the target for the overall energy system • 33‐45 PJ of waste is additional • 40‐50 PJ for petro‐ chemical products has to be considered ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 4 15-12-2011 Scenarios for Danish biomass potentials Biomass potential 600 Wood residues Wood pellets Unexploited forest increment 500 Fire wood Wood chips Whey 400 Brewer’s grain PJ/year Potato pulp Molasses 300 Beet pulp Mill residues Fibre fraction 200 Animal manure Beet top Straw 100 Grass Clover Grass from low lying and wet areas Energy crops (willow) Rape seed 0 2010/50 2010/50 2010/50 2010 2030 2050 No import Unl. import No animal prod. Organic farming 2010 2030 2050 Official recommendations Danish Self‐sufficiency 2010 2030 2050 Lacto‐ovo vegetarian Change of diet ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Reduging the biomass consumption in CEESA‐100% renewable energy scenarios ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 5 15-12-2011 Smart energy systems are crucial for reducing biomass consumption in 100% renewable energy systems Electricity smart grids are only one part of this system. The scenarios rely on a holistic smart energy system including the use of: • Heat storages and district heating with CHP plants and large heat pumps. • New electricity demands from large heat pumps and electric vehicles as storage options. • Electrolysers and liquid fuel for the transport sector enabling storage as liquids. • The use of gas storage. Flexible integration of electricity, heat, gas and transport ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Transport modeling in CEESA • Particular focus due to large challenges: – >95% reliant on oil – High increase historically – Large potential for electric cars and direct electricity but.. – Specific challenges in bringing in electricity in sea, aviation and good transport ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 6 15-12-2011 Transport and 100% renewable energy systems in 2050 Transit (0%) Denmark National 100% International (50%) Other Countries Transit (100%) ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Primary energy consumption in CEESA 1.000 Kortsigtede konsekvenser af langsigtede mål 900 800 700 PJ/year 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 Reference 2040 2050 CEESA Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass (gasified) Biomass (solid) Biogas, manure Waste incineration Geo thermal Solar thermal PV Wind power Wave power Unused electricity ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 7 15-12-2011 ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Three 100% renewable energy system scenarios in CEESA • CEESA‐2050 Conservative: The conservative scenario is created using mostly known technologies and technologies which are available today. • CEESA‐2050 Ideal: In the ideal scenario, technologies which are still in the development phase are included on a larger scale. • CEESA‐2050: This scenario is a “realistic and recommendable” scenario based on a balanced assessment of realistic and achievable technology improvements. ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 8 15-12-2011 Primary energy consumption in CEESA scenarios for 2050 1.000 CEESA‐100% Vedvarenden energi scenarior Unused electricity Wave power 900 Wind power 800 PV 700 Solar thermal Geo thermal Waste incineration 500 Biogas, manure 400 Straw, wood & energy crops (Solid for boilers, industry etc.) Hovedbudskaber præsenteret for Klima-, energi-, og bygningsministeren den 2 november 2011 Wood, energy crops (gasified for Transport) 300 Wood, energy crops (gasified for CHP) 200 Natural gas 100 Oil Coal 0 ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Reference CEESA 2050 CEESA 2050 CEESA 2050 2050 Conservative Ideal Biomass supply in CEESA scenarios 350 Waste incineration (organic) 300 250 PJ/year PJ/year 600 Biogas, manure 200 Straw, wood & energy crops (Solid for boilers, industry etc.) 150 100 Wood, energy crops (gasified for Transport) 50 Wood, energy crops (gasified for CHP) 0 CEESA 2050 Conservative CEESA 2050 Ideal CEESA 2050 ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 9 15-12-2011 Socio‐economic costs 250.000 • Transport pose a very high portion of the costs compared to other energy services MDKK/year 200.000 150.000 • Direct economic advantages in transition 100.000 50.000 • In addition: • More stable costs • More jobs • More export • Lower health costs 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 Reference 2040 2050 CEESA Investments, energy O&M, energy Extra infrastructure inv., transport Investments, vehicles O&M, vehicles Fuel CO2‐costs ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] PJ 140 • VE produktion i DK 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 '85 '90 Vind Træ Affald, bionedbrydeligt '95 '00 '05 Halm Biogas Varmepumper m.m. PJ '10 120 100 • VE i 2010 • Import ca. 36 PJ 80 60 40 20 0 El og fjernvarme Kilde: ENS 2011 Vind Halm Træ Endeligt forbrug Biogas Affald Anden VE ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 10 15-12-2011 Scenarios for Danish biomass potentials 700 Sum Incl. Waste Sum Excl. Waste 600 500 400 For overall purposes 300 For energy only 200 100 0 2010/50 2010/50 2010/50 2010/50 2010/50 Incl. Feed Excl. Feed 2050 High energy No import Unl. import No animal prod. BAU 2010 Organic farming 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 Official recommendations Danish Self‐sufficiency 2010 2030 2050 Lacto‐ovo vegetarian Change of diet ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] CEESA Publications • CEESA reports (www.ceesa.dk): – – – – – – Main report: Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis Part 1: CEESA 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios towards 2050 Part 2: CEESA 100% Renewable Energy Transport Scenarios towards 2050 Part 3: Electric power systems for a transition to 100% Renewable Energy Systems in Denmark before 2050 Part 4: Policies for a Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Systems in Denmark before 2050 Part 5: Environmental Assessment of Renewable Energy Scenarios towards 2050 • And a number of other reports including: – – – • IDAs Climate Plan 2050, background report Danish Wind Power ‐ Export and Cost Technical potentials of biomass for energy services from current agriculture and forestry in selected countries in Europe – Energy Vision for Aalborg Municipality 2050 – EnergyTown Frederikshavn – Heat Plan Denmark (2008 and 2010) And 5 PhD projects, 19 book chapters or journal papers, 25 conference proceedings and presentations. ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 11 15-12-2011 Hvor skal vi starte? • 70‐80 procent af investeringer i teknologi i et IDA 2050 er kendt teknologi… – – – – – – – Lav varme‐ og elbesparelser Lav besparelser i industrien og omstil til el Udvid fjernvarmeforsyningen Udbyg med land‐ og havvindmøller Udbyg med store solvarmeanlæg Udbyg med store varmepumper Udbyg den kollektive transport ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] Hvor skal vi starte? • 70‐80 procent af investeringer i teknologi i et IDA 2050 er kendt teknologi… – – – – – – – Lav varme‐ og elbesparelser Effekt på kort sigt: Mindre import Lav besparelser i industrien og omstil til el naturgas, olie og kul og økonomiske besparelser Udvid fjernvarmeforsyningen Udbyg med land‐ og havvindmøller Effekt på lang sigt: mindre pres på Udbyg med store solvarmeanlæg biomasseressourcen og mindre import samt mindre udsving i omkostninger Udbyg med store varmepumper Udbyg den kollektive transport ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 12 15-12-2011 Tak for opmærksomheden Osramhuset, København 8. december, 2011 Lektor Brian Vad Mathiesen Institut for Planlægning, Aalborg Universitet people.plan.aau.dk/~bvm/ ©Brian Vad Mathiesen [email protected] 13
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