Week 40 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- Weekly Gas Report HIGHLIGHTS VLGC: Short-term softening Ammonia: Prices firming on continued supply issues Handy: Lack of spot market activity VLGC NH3 HANDY A decidedly lacklustre week both east and west of Suez, with only two Indian cargoes being fixed out of the Middle East Gulf. A rumour at the end of the week of one more potential ship being booked remains unconfirmed at the time of writing. East of Suez remains reasonably well supplied in terms of available tonnage for October and we do suspect that the Baltic Index will continue to soften a little more in the short term, however fundamentals exist that could serve to stabilize the Index towards the end of next week or the week after. The ammonia market is still impacted by production issues at a number of export plants. This has again contributed to a more bullish price outlook with rumors of firmer prices with US$ 600– 605 pmt concluded both in the Black Sea and in the Baltic. Production in Trinidad is reportedly running 30% below capacity due to dwindling gas supplies resulting from insufficient offshore drilling. Gas shortages are also preventing the restart of the OCI-EBIC plant that has been closed since end June. The main focus of the week has been the USEC MarkWest November cargo, which we understand has been awarded however to whom is yet to be confirmed. One Navigator vessel is currently open for spot business in the Mediterranean and an Eletson controlled vessel will be open in Morocco early second half October. Freight rates continue to move sideways and we do expect this tendency to be maintained in the coming weeks. Coaster: Slight increase in East of Suez trade has slowed COASTER activity West of Suez one cargo remains with Middle East gulf producers uncovered for early November already sold out for October and while the October program Far east inventories sufficient for should now be sorted. Typically the time being. discharge destinations of the early October loaders will be the determinants for November availability. “There is no elevator to success, you have to take the stairs !” VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE) US$/month 4,000,000 3,700,000 3,400,000 3,100,000 2,800,000 2,500,000 2,200,000 1,900,000 1,600,000 1,300,000 1,000,000 700,000 400,000 100,000 -200,000 1 -500,000 The European Coaster market saw a slight increase in activity this week; yet far from being able absorb the amount of open vessels being shown in both North West Europe and the Mediterranean. However, we do not see any signs of the pressure on freight rates to be decreasing yet. On a longer term, some market players expect that the approaching winter months will create more balance in the market, but this remains to be seen. 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 5 YR LOW 1 5 YR HIGH 5 YR AVG 2014 Ytd Week no -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- LPG LPG prices declining in NW Europe, increasing elsewhere The North West European market saw both grades trading lower on the back of even sharper crude and naphtha falls. Butane declined the most and ended the week at parity to both propane and naphtha. Petchem producers were looking to resell LPG as naphtha has become the most attractive feedstock. Meanwhile mild weather continues to undermine demand from the heating sector. remained lackluster even following the release of the October CP. Fob cargoes were offered at a discount to CP in the US$ 1015 range, the discount required to cover the cost of freight to Asia. November CP swaps ended the week at US$ 742. The Asian LPG market saw price moving higher in spite of weaker crude and naphtha. Yet, further prices gains are likely to kept in check by ample stocks and high volumes of incoming arbitrage cargoes. Furthermore, petchem sector demand is waning with butane now at parity with naphIn the Middle Eastern Gulf, ac- tha instead of the typical 10% tivity in the product market discount or more required to FERC approval to construct and operate the Chesapeake Bay facility, which will ship cargoes to India and Japan. The approval came after more than two years of analysis. Sumitomo Corp. and GAIL of India have each contracted for half of the LNG capacity.. The project is scheduled to come on stream in June 2017. LNG Mitsui is proceeding with the procurement of eight LNG carriers to be used for the delivery of LNG, mainly to its customers in Japan, from the Cameron LNG export project in the U.S. One week ago the company signed time charter parties for five ships Additionally, Mitsui is preparing to conclude time charter parties Skangass, the Norwegian LNG and natural gas company, has for the remaining 3 ships. decided to build Finland's first LNG import terminal at the port of Pori in the west of the counThe Cove Point LNG export pro- try to be completed in 2016. The ject in Maryland, has received terminal will have a capacity of 2 induce flexible ethylene crackers to switch from naphtha to LPG. The absence of petchem sector demand is limiting Middle East Gulf import of butane parcels. US propane prices showed moderate price gains in spite of substantial crude falls. Market participants appeared to be more concerned with the possibility of a repeat of last year with a sharp rundown of stocks during the winter months. EIA propane data showed a build in stocks of 443,000bl, which was less than expected. Propane was priced at 48.7% of WTI. 30,000 cubic metres of LNG. The facility would benefit from a US$ 28 million investment from the Finnish government Ophir Energy, the UK company developing the Tanzania LNG project in East Africa with three energy majors and a unit of Singapore fund Temasek, said latest drilling confirmed that one block alone out of three will support a liquefaction Train of 5 million tonnes per annum for an aggregate 15 MTPA liquefaction plant. -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- FIXTURES SPOT Vessel PROVIDENCE YAMABUKI SIGAS MAUD JOAN EPIC CURACAO B GAS ETTRICK TROUT Built Cbm Qty 2008 82423 44' 1993 80793 44' 2006 5018 2' 2009 3540 1'8 2014 3455 1'6 1991 3215 1'6 1990 2560 FC Cargo LPG LPG PROPANE BUTANE PROPANE PROPANE BUTANE Load MAA RAS LAFFAN TEES BILBAO PORT JEROME TEES GRANGEMOUTH Disch ECI ECI ARA/DUNKIRK OPTS GDANSK OPTS OPTS Laycan 12-13 OCT 17-18 OCT 30-02 OCT 02-04 OCT 02-04 OCT 04-06 OCT 03-05 OCT Rate US$ 3.4 MILLION BSS 1:3 3.15 MILL BSS 1:2 RNR RNR RNR RNR RNR Charterer HPCL IOC ENI REPSOL EXXON SHV PETROINEOS Period 12 MONTHS 12 MONTHS Hire US$ 1.5 MILLION 1.5 MILLION Charterer PETREDEC PETREDEC PERIOD Vessel BW HAVIS BW HAVFROST Built Cbm Trade Delivery 1993 57100 LPG 1991 57100 LPG OCTOBER 20-25 SEPT RATES The Baltic Exchange LPG Index 44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba Weekly Baltic average Baltic TC Equivalent (US$/pmt) (US$/pcm) (US$/pd) Last Week 106.04 2,814,940 92,536 This Week 99.65 2,604,048 85,603 Trend Softening Softening Softening 12 months Time Charter - Indicators 3.200 cbm S/R 3.500 cbm P/R - East 3.500 cbm P/R - West 5.000 cbm P/R 6.500 cbm S/R 10.000 cbm ETH 20.000 cbm S/R 35.000 cbm 60.000 cbm 82.000 cbm Last Week (US$/pd) 7,890 6,903 7,232 9,369 13,642 19,395 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pd) 7,890 6,903 7,232 9,369 13,642 19,395 36,160 32,873 52,597 62,459 This Week (US$/pcm) 240,000 210,000 220,000 285,000 415,000 590,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 1,600,000 1,900,000 Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady VALUATIONS We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures. 3 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- PRODUCTS & PRICES LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380 NWE CIF ARA Small US Mt Belvieu Non-LST NWE Propane Swaps Q1 forward Q2 forward MEG Contract Price Japan CFR NG, Crude & IFO380 NG, NYMEX WTI, Crude - Spot IFO380, Fujairah Propane usd/pmt Change from last week Butane usd/pmt Change from last week 662.00 -0.15% 700.00 -9.29% 547.87 1.24% 555.27 -1.97% 695.00 683.00 -1.15% -15.81% 735.00 822.00 -1.22% 0.67% 765.00 842.00 -2.55% -1.48% 3.99 91.47 567.00 0.95% -1.18% -1.59% usd/mmbtu usd/bbl usd/pmt Various Sources Name Brokers Anders Lalim Martin Engelsen Hals Katie Du Sebastian Isaksen Henrik Konow Verlo Research Knut Stangebye Olsen Operation Håvard Teigland Spyros Bampetas Office Mobile Yahoo Messenger (+47) 2252 7707 (+47) 2252 7783 (+47) 2252 7736 (+47) 2252 7737 (+47) 2252 7755 (+47) 905 30 930 (+47) 909 39 949 (+47) 901 54 760 (+47) 958 00 214 (+47) 924 65 307 la_limno martinengelsenhals katiemin1209 sebastian.isaksen hkverlo (+47) 2252 7703 (+47) 952 48 490 knutstangebyeolsen (+47) 2252 7733 (+30) 2108 9000 62 (+47) 980 43 763 (+30) 6973 38 2273 havardteigland spyrosbampetas Email: Phone: Fax: [email protected] (+47) 2252 77 00 (+47) 2252 78 64 Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45 8th floor, lift E PO Box 2029 Vika, N-0125 Oslo, Norway www.lorstem.com 4
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