Week 46
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Weekly Gas Report
HIGHLIGHTS
VLGC: Baltic Index under
pressure
Ammonia: Price mainly
stable
Handy: No new activity
reported
Coaster: Fair amount of
activity in the market
VLGC
NH3
MGC & HANDY
The Baltic LPG Index dropped
down below US$ 90 following a
couple of oil major relets for end
November and early December
loading. This brings owners
earning down well below US$
80 000 per day or just above US$
2.3mill per calendar month.
However, the momentum is still
there
with
significant
“inefficiency” in the market as a
high number of vessels are
ballasting back West from Eastern
destinations. There are significant
volumes of LPG to be moved in
December and even more when
we enter 2015; - on the other
hand, the spot market for VLGCs
remains limited, due to the high
number of CoA’s and this will
result in a continuous volatile
spot market. With daily earning
of US$ 70’ to 80’ per day waiting
time is expensive, consequently
single ship owners, trader and oil
company relets will continue to
grab cargoes at rates below the
Baltic to avoid waiting time and
get their ships out of the way.
It was relatively quiet week in the
ammonia market with prices
stable at US$ 655 Cfr Tampa, US$
605 fob Yuzhnyy and US$ 635 Fob
for spot Middle East Gulf.
It has been a quiet week in the
Handysize market with little
active to be reported. The
MidSize market remain firm and
there are not many candidates
around for time charter either.
Exmar’s latest new building from
Hyundai Mipo, LPG/C Waregem
38’ Cbm has been fixed to SHV for
a short time charter prior delivery
on a long time charter.
Thenamaris entered the LPG
market by placing and order of
two 38’ Cbm fully ref carriers at
Hyundai Mipo at about US$ 53.5
mill each. The two Midsize
vessels to be delivered in 2017
feature the latest HMD design
with ME engines
The Yuzhnyy line up for October
ended at 190,000 tons while
November so far stands at
222,000. The Baltic line for
October ended at 87,000 tons
while November is already at
111,000 tons. The Middle East
Gulf ammonia line-up for October
ended at 285,000 tons while
November stands at 190,000
tons.
Shipping remain stable and firm.
COASTER
Fair amount of activity for the
coasters in North West Europe
this week, unfortunately there
are still not enough enqieries to
move the market in a positive
direction for owners. Time
Charter rates on small ships have
taken a significant dip as a result
of the poor spot market we have
been witnessing for many months
now, and it is difficult to predict
at at what level rates will bottom
out.
“Sometimes you must go
against the wheel’s turn ”
VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE)
US$/month
4,000,000
3,700,000
3,400,000
3,100,000
2,800,000
2,500,000
2,200,000
1,900,000
1,600,000
1,300,000
1,000,000
700,000
400,000
100,000
-200,000 1
-500,000
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
5 YR LOW
1
5 YR HIGH
5 YR AVG
2014 Ytd
Week no
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
activity slowed notably from last
week with interest in Fob cargoes subsiding. With Asian Cfr
prices under pressure and
freight rates still at high levels
even discounts of US$ 40 to CP
was sufficient to generate much
interest in Fob cargoes. With
Aramco acceptances for December loading to be released over
the weekend and a flattening
November to January price
structure and plenty of Fob cargoes most buyers preferred to
sideline.
LPG
LPG prices tumbling in
the US and Asia
Prices in the North West European managed for some time to
resist the sharp falls seen in
crude and naphtha. However,
towards the end of the week
sharp falls were recorded as the
market players were observing
the steep falls in Belvieu prices
across the Atlantic. Little support was evident from the
heating sector with mild weather still dominant across the continent. Butane prices were still
commanding a premium over
propane due to tighter supplies. The Asian LPG market was active with a number of cargoes
on offer amidst rising buyer
In the Middle Eastern Gulf, interest for second half Decem-
LNG
Could US LNG export be priced
out of the Asian market before it
even starts to flow in late 2015
or early 2016? At current Henry
Hub price of around US$ 4.0
mmBtu plus pipeline fees (15%),
liquefaction US$ 3.5 and shipping to East Asia, delivered LNG
price totals US$ 11.0 mmBtu.
This compares to the Japan
Korea Marker of US$ 11.10
mmBtu this week (Platts), which
is lagging the crude falls the way
it is constructed.
2
Kogas of South Korea, the
world’s largest corporate buyer
of LNG, saw its import volumes
drop by 9.7% to 26.6 million
tonnes in the first nine months
this year compared to the same
period last year. Both sales to
the power and city gas sectors
recorded similar reductions.
The IEA sees LNG as an increasingly important tool for natural
gas security., in its World Energy
Outlook 2014. The capital inten-
ber arrivals. Prices ended the
week with a sharp fall following
tumbling crude and naphtha
values. Butane interest remained muted with prices relative to naphtha too high to
attract interest from petrochemical buyers.
US propane came under strong
pressure from tumbling WTI and
higher than expected inventory
data. The negative impetus
would probably have been even
stronger if not for colder weather forecasts and some support
from the petrochemical sector
where propane is now providing
better margins than butane.
sity of gas infrastructure remains
a barrier to globalization of natural gas markets. How natural gas
and LNG will be prices on domestic and international markets
remain a key uncertainty. The
organization expect 60% of the
growth to come from unconventional production. Furthermore,
natural gas will be level with coal
as the second largest fuel in the
global energy mix after oil.
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
FIXTURES
SPOT
Vessel
BRITISH COURAGE
GRACE RIVER
FRITZI N
SIVA PEARL
CESKA
TEMPEST
REPSOL TBN
Built
2006
2002
2009
2010
2003
2008
Cbm
81605
79334
80676
7200
2939
2700
Qty
44'
44'
44'
3'9
1'6
FC
1'6
Cargo
LPG
LPG
LPG
BUTANE
BUTANE
BUTANE
PROPANE
Load
AG
MAA
BONNY
PERNIS
FREDERICIA
BROFJORDEN
TEES
Disch
EAST
EAST
EAST
OPTS
OPTS
ARA
OPTS
Laycan
28-30 NOV
1-3 DEC
MID OCT
11-12 NOV
17-19 NOV
12-14 NOV
18-Nov
Rate US$
LOW 80S
MID 80S
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
Charterer
PETREDEC
KPC
TALAVERAS
STASCO
STASCO
PREEM
ENI
Del date
2017
Price MUS$
53M
Buyer
THENAMARIS
SALE & PURCHASE / NEWBUILDING
Vessel
TBN THENAMARIS
Built Cbm Delivery place/Yard
38'
HYUNDAI MIPO DOCKYARD
RATES
The Baltic Exchange LPG Index
44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba
Weekly Baltic average
Baltic TC Equivalent
(US$/pmt)
(US$/pcm)
(US$/pd)
Last Week
97.73
2,670,506
87,788
This Week
92.52
2,497,196
82,091
Trend
Softening
Softening
Softening
12 months Time Charter - Indicators
3.200 cbm S/R
3.500 cbm P/R - East
3.500 cbm P/R - West
5.000 cbm P/R
6.500 cbm S/R
10.000 cbm ETH
20.000 cbm S/R
35.000 cbm
60.000 cbm
82.000 cbm
Last Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pcm)
230,000
190,000
200,000
250,000
410,000
570,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
1,600,000
1,900,000
Trend
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
VALUATIONS
We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a
regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures.
3
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
PRODUCTS & PRICES
LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380
Propane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
Butane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
520.00
0.96%
563.00
3.64%
418.84
-4.71%
494.49
1.07%
528.00
530.00
-0.38%
-3.40%
610.00
665.00
0.00%
-1.73%
600.00
665.00
0.00%
-1.73%
3.96
73.45
468.50
-11.03%
-7.00%
-1.39%
usd/mmbtu
usd/bbl
usd/pmt
NWE
CIF ARA Small
US Mt Belvieu
Non-LST
NWE Propane Swaps
Q1 forward
Q2 forward
MEG
Contract Price
Japan CFR
NG, Crude & IFO380
NG, NYMEX
WTI, Crude - Spot
IFO380, Fujairah
Various Sources
Name
Brokers
Anders Lalim
Martin Engelsen Hals
Katie Du
Sebastian Isaksen
Henrik Konow Verlo
Research
Knut Stangebye Olsen
Operation
Håvard Teigland
Spyros Bampetas
Office
Mobile
Yahoo Messenger
(+47) 2252 7707
(+47) 2252 7783
(+47) 2252 7736
(+47) 2252 7737
(+47) 2252 7755
(+47) 905 30 930
(+47) 909 39 949
(+47) 901 54 760
(+47) 958 00 214
(+47) 924 65 307
la_limno
martinengelsenhals
katiemin1209
sebastian.isaksen
hkverlo
(+47) 2252 7703
(+47) 952 48 490
knutstangebyeolsen
(+47) 2252 7733
(+30) 2108 9000 62
(+47) 980 43 763
(+30) 6973 38 2273
havardteigland
spyrosbampetas
Email:
Phone:
Fax:
[email protected]
(+47) 2252 77 00
(+47) 2252 78 64
Lorentzen & Stemoco AS
Munkedamsveien 45
8th floor, lift E
PO Box 2029 Vika,
N-0125 Oslo, Norway
www.lorstem.com
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