US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. October 9, 2014 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Railcar Loadings Shares of Loadings US Railcar Loadings Car Loads Coal Loadings Transportation Indicators & Stocks Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage 1 2 3-4 5-6 7 8 9 10 11 Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Railcar Loadings Figure 1. 600 600 RAILCAR LOADINGS* (thousand units, 26-wa) Total 10/4 550 550 500 500 450 450 yardeni.com 400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 400 2016 * Car loads plus intermodal. Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s. Figure 2. 400 400 RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) Car Loads 350 350 300 300 10/4 10/4 250 250 200 200 Intermodal yardeni.com 150 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 150 2016 Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 1 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Shares of Loadings Figure 3. 75 75 RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 Car Loads (as a percent of total) 50 50 Intermodal (as a percent of total) 10/4 45 45 40 40 35 35 yardeni.com 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30 2016 Source: Atlantic Systems. Figure 4. 60 60 RAILCAR LOADINGS* 50 50 40 40 10/4 Coal Car Loads (as a percent of total car loads) 30 30 Grain Car Loads (as a percent of total car loads) 20 20 10 10 yardeni.com 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2016 * Based on 26-week moving averages. Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 2 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Railcar Loadings Figure 5. 275 275 RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 250 250 10/4 225 225 200 200 175 175 150 150 Intermodal: Total 125 125 Intermodal ex Trailers yardeni.com 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 100 2016 Source: Atlantic Systems. Figure 6. 70 70 RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 65 65 Intermodal: Trailers 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 25 30 10/4 yardeni.com 2000 2001 25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 3 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Railcar Loadings Figure 7. 30 30 RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES 25 25 20 20 10/4 15 15 Motor Vehicles Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) 10 10 Sales (million units, saar) yardeni.com 5 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 5 16 Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics. Figure 8. 7 2600 RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS 2300 6 2000 1700 5 1400 4 1100 10/4 Lumber & Wood Products Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa, sa) 800 3 Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) 2 500 yardeni.com 90 91 92 200 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 4 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Car Loads Figure 9. 160 12 RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 11 150 10 Coal Nonmetallic Minerals 140 9 8 130 7 120 6 10/4 5 10/4 110 4 100 3 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 12 48 46 10/4 44 11 Chemicals & Petroleum Products Pulp & Paper Products 10 42 40 9 38 8 36 7 34 10/4 6 32 30 5 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 11 Waste & Scrap Materials 18 10 Metals & Products 16 14 9 12 10/4 10 8 10/4 8 7 6 yardeni.com 4 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 90 92 94 96 6 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. Page 5 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Car Loads Figure 10. 48 48 RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 46 46 10/4 44 44 Chemicals & Petroleum Products 42 42 40 40 38 38 36 36 34 34 32 32 yardeni.com 30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 30 16 Source: Atlantic Systems. Figure 11. 16 16 RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) Metals & Products 14 14 12 12 10/4 10 10 8 8 6 6 yardeni.com 4 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 4 16 Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 6 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Coal Loadings Figure 12. 54 54 RAILCAR LOADINGS: COAL (percent based on 26-wa) 48 48 42 42 10/4 Coal Car Loadings 36 36 as a percent of total railcar loadings as a percent of car loads 30 30 24 24 10/4 18 yardeni.com 2000 2001 18 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Atlantic Systems. Figure 13. 500 500 RAILCAR LOADINGS EXCLUDING COAL (thousand units, 26-wa) 10/4 400 400 300 300 Total Railcar Loadings Excluding Coal Total Car Loads Excluding Coal 200 200 10/4 yardeni.com 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 100 2016 Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 7 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Transportation Indicators & Stocks Figure 14. 575 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 600 S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & RAILCAR LOADINGS 10/8 580 10/4 Total Railcar Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) 560 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 S&P 500 Transportation Index 400 yardeni.com 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 380 16 Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s. Figure 15. 575 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 145 S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & ATA TRUCKING INDEX 10/8 135 ATA Trucking Index (2000=100, 3-ma, sa) 125 115 105 95 85 75 S&P 500 Transportation Index 65 yardeni.com 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 55 16 Source: American Trucking Association and Standard & Poor’s. Page 8 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories Figure 16. 275 1700 RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 10/4 1600 250 1500 225 1400 200 1300 175 1200 1100 Business Inventories (billions of 2009 dollars, sa) 150 1000 Intermodal: Total (thousand units, 26-wa) 125 900 yardeni.com 100 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 800 16 Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau. Figure 17. 250 1900 RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 10/4 225 1700 Jul 200 175 1500 150 1300 125 100 1100 Business Inventories (billions of 2009 dollars, sa) 75 900 Intermodal ex Trailers (thousand units, 26-wa) 50 yardeni.com 25 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 700 16 Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau. Page 9 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories Figure 18. 140 1800 ATA TRUCKING INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES Aug 130 1600 120 110 1400 100 1200 90 80 1000 Business Inventories (billions of 2009 dollars, sa) 70 800 ATA Trucking Index (2000=100, 3-ma, sa) 60 yardeni.com 50 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 600 16 Source: American Trucking Association and Census Bureau. Figure 19. 600 1800 S&P 500 TRANSPORATION INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 550 10/8 1700 Jul 500 Business Inventories (billions of 2009 dollars, sa) 450 1600 400 1500 S&P 500 Transportation Index 350 1400 300 1300 250 200 1200 150 1100 100 1000 50 yardeni.com 0 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 900 16 Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 10 / October 9, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production Figure 20. 48 10 RAILCAR LOADINGS & US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION 46 10/4 10/3 Railcar Loadings: Chemicals & Petroleum Products (thousand units, 26-wa) 44 9 US Crude Oil Field Production (million barrels per day, 4-week ma, sa) 42 8 40 7 38 36 6 34 5 32 yardeni.com 30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 4 16 Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Energy. Figure 21. 50 50 RAILCAR LOADINGS: CHEMICALS & PETROLEUM, MOTOR VEHICLES, LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS 10/4 (thousand units, 26-wa) 40 40 30 30 20 20 Chemicals & Petroleum Products (45.8) Motor Vehicles (17.4) Lumber & Wood Products (3.7) 10 10 yardeni.com 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 16 Source: Atlantic Systems. 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