West End Office Market Watch October 2014

Savills Research
UK Commercial
West End Office
Market Watch
Supply squeeze predicted over the remainder of
2014 as vacancy rate falls to 3.4%
n Jupiter Asset Management's 56,350
sq ft pre-let of Land Securities Zig Zag
scheme, which is due for completion
next year, provided a boost to take-up
figures in September. This brings
number of pre-lets so far this year to
12, ahead of 8 per annum seen on
average over a 10 year period.
n As a result of this uptick in pre-letting
activity, 58% of 2014 and 35% of 2015
development completions are pre-let.
This coupled with the vacancy rate
falling to 3.4% in September, its lowest
level since October 2007, will see the
West End experience a significant
supply squeeze over the remainder of
the year.
n Furthermore, Grade A supply fell
to 2.7m sq ft in September, which
equates for 68% of total supply, its
lowest level since December 2012.
This represents a 24% fall over a 12
month period with the most significant
fall being felt on units of >15,000 sq
ft as opposed to smaller units which
have seen an increase.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10 yr average
6
5
n The Business & Consumer Services
sector is also performing ahead of its
five year average of 10%, accounting
for 17% share of 2014 take-up to
end September. This is the result
of the exponential rise in serviced
office operator take-up across central
London.
n In September alone, serviced office
operators accounted for 7 transactions
totalling approximately 117,000 sq
ft including Avanta at 5 Merchant
Square, London Executive Offices at
23 King Street, SW1 and ServCorp at
Devonshire House, 1 Mayfair Place,
W1.
n Total 2014 take-up from this sector
has reached 313,000 sq ft, up 62%
on 2013 and 350% on the five year
average (2009-13) of 70,000 sq ft per
annum. This a trend that is likely to
continue as flexible leases and coworking which allows collaboration
and networking opportunities become
increasingly high on tenants agendas.
4
3
2
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
2006
1
2005
n The most active business sector
driving demand in the West End so
far this year has been the Technology,
Media and Telecoms (TMT) sector,
accounting for 28% of take-up. Over
the last five years (2009-13) the TMT
sector has averaged a 24% share per
annum.
2004
n This solid performance by the West
End will help take-up easily surpass
the long term average take-up figure of
3.3m sq ft and potentially match takeup levels in 2014 of 4.1m sq ft.
Take-up
2003
n Take-up reached 1.1m sq ft in Q3
2014, matching Q2 and exceeding Q1
take-up. This brings take-up for the
first three quarters of the year to 3.1m
sq ft, 25% ahead of the long term
average take-up for this period.
GRAPH 1
sq ft (million)
Supply and demand
snapshot
October 2014
Source: Savills Research
GRAPH 2
Business sector share of take-up
2014*
5 year avg (2009-2013)
TMT
Business & Consumer Services
Insurance & Financial Services
Retail & Leisure
Public Services
Extraction & Utilities
Professional
Property
Manufacturing & Industry
Banking
0%
10%
20%
30%
Source: Savills Research, *data to end September 2014
TABLE 1
Key September stats
Stats
Monthly change
Take-up
383,167 sq ft

Supply
4.1m sq ft

Vacancy Rate
3.4%

Top rent (psf)
£107.50

2.7m sq ft

Demand
Source: Savills Research
savills.co.uk/research
01
Market Watch | West End offices
Analysis close up
TABLE 3
TABLE 2
Supply
Take-up
Month
Year to date
Sq ft
Sq ft
% change
on previous
year
% change
on average
Total
% Grade A
% chg on
prev mnth
Vacancy
rate (%)
Sep-13
509,814
3,186,631
37%
29%
4,730,960
76%
-3.7%
3.9%
Oct-13
199,077
3,385,708
37%
23%
4,684,003
75%
-1.0%
3.9%
Nov-13
369,822
3,755,530
39%
28%
4,446,402
73%
-5.1%
3.7%
Dec-13
329,664
4,085,194
33%
22%
4,644,988
75%
4.5%
3.8%
Jan-14
254,077
254,077
-75%
-13%
4,438,999
74%
-4.4%
3.7%
Feb-14
265,389
519,466
-55%
-3%
4,474,644
74%
0.8%
3.7%
Mar-14
363,789
883,255
-38%
6%
4,622,003
73%
3.3%
3.8%
Apr-14
386,685
1,269,940
-21%
24%
4,323,746
76%
-6.5%
3.6%
May-14
381,345
1,651,285
-7%
27%
4,175,057
74%
-3.4%
3.5%
Jun-14
326,527
1,977,812
-5%
18%
4,193,382
74%
0.4%
3.5%
Jul-14
318,879
2,296,691
0%
22%
4,186,477
71%
-0.2%
3.5%
Aug-14
445,119
2,741,810
2%
30%
4,189,683
71%
0.1%
3.5%
Sep-14
383,167
3,124,977
-2%
25%
4,053,774
68%
-3.2%
3.4%
TABLE 4
TABLE 5
Rents
Demand & Under Offers
Average
£ per sq ft
Top
Grade A
Grade B
WE Potential demand (sq ft)
Prime*
Rent
free**
822,000
WE Active demand (sq ft)
1,835,000
2,657,000
Sep-13
£97.50
£64.99
£42.38
£90.35
9
WE Total demand (sq ft)
Oct-13
£90.00
£75.56
£34.00
-
-
% change on 12 month ave
Nov-13
£75.00
£64.32
£39.40
-
-
Total under offer (sq ft)
651,690
Dec-13
£110.00
£67.11
£45.14
£99.85
8
Under offer this month (sq ft)
284,369
Jan-14
£115.00
£57.01
£41.34
-
-
% change on ave
9%
Feb-14
£95.00
£67.31
£42.50
-
-
Landlord controlled supply
57%
Mar-14
£115.00
£68.79
£33.88
£99.13
8
Tenant controlled supply
18%
Apr-14
£100.00
£64.52
£37.86
-
-
May-14
£115.00
£58.30
£43.64
-
-
Jun-14
£110.00
£84.31
£34.83
£103.33
9
Jul-14
£90.00
£54.59
£30.00
-
-
Aug-14
£107.50
£74.81
£37.50
-
-
Sep-14
£107.50
£73.27
£35.99
£98.25
9
-12%
TABLE 6
Development pipeline
Sq ft
Refurb
Devs
Total
% Pre-let
2014
478,300
1,308,396
1,786,696
58%
2015
202,800
1,502,552
1,705,352
35%
2016
370,000
2,806,421
3,176,421
7%
2017
60,000
1,766,239
1,826,239
3%
Total
1,111,100
7,383,608
8,494,708
Completions due in the next 6 months are included in the supply figures
02
23%
*Average prime rents for preceeding 3 months ** Average rent free on leases of 5 years for preceeding 3 months
Market Watch | West End offices
TABLE 7
Significant September transactions
Sq ft
Grade
Achieved
rent
Bldg
A
90,596
Zig Zag, 70 Victoria Street, SW1
7, 8, 9
A
5 Merchant Square, W2
10-14
23 King Street, SW1
Address
Floor/s
Tenant
Lessor
39 Victoria Street, SW1
£69.50
Parliamentary Estates
British Land Company
56,357
£84.00
Jupiter Asset Management
Land Securities
A
36,650
Undisclosed
Avanta
European Land & Property
1-3
A
23,707
Confidential
London Executive Offices
Standard Life
Devonshire House, 1 Mayfair
Place, W1
1
A
14,500
£87.50
Servcorp
Ponte Gadea Group
62 Buckingham Gate, SW1
pt 6
A
11,602
Undisclosed
Kering Group
Land Securities
10 Portman Square, W1
pt 1
A
10,250
£87.50
Ardagh Glass
British Land
38 Seymour Street, W1
B-2
A
8,295
£62.69
Bridges Ventures LLP
Portman Estate
76 Wardour Street, W1
2
A
7,093
£60.00
Pathfinders
Legal & General
The Heals Building, 196 Tottenham
Court Road, W1
1
A
5,586
£65.00
Liverpool Football Club
Threadneedle Property
Investments
TABLE 8
Significant supply
Sq ft
Grade
Quoting
rent
G-9
145,142
A
£60's
Park House, Park Street, W1
2-5, 7, 8
143,010
A
£97.50
QNB
Telstar House, 2 Eastbourne Terrace, W2
1-6
105,642
A
£47.19
Rio Tinto
62 Buckingham Gate, SW1
3-6
84,464
A
£70.00
Land Securities
2 Fitzroy Place, Mortimer Street, W1
Bldg
81,233
A
NQ
Aviva / Exemplar
8 St James's Square, SW1
Bldg
67,500
A
NQ
Green Property
Ampersand, 180 Wardour Street, W1**
1, 2, 3, 4
64,660
A
NQ
Resolution / Peterson Group
2 Kingdom Street, W2
7, 8
50,000
A
£55.00
British Land
5 Merchant Square, W2
8, 9
45,770
A
£60.00
European Land & Property
Walmar House, 288 Regent Street, W1
B-6
45,152
A
NQ
Great Portland Estates
Oxford House, 76 Oxford Street, W1
1-6
44,329
B
NQ
Great Portland Estates
2 Stephen Street, W1
1-4
42,538
A
£70's
125 Shaftesbury Avenue, WC2
1, 2
41,792
A
NQ
80 Strand. WC2
5
40,090
A
£65.00
Pearson
50 Broadway, SW1
LG-3
39,826
A
£39.50
Bircham Dyson Bell
Address
Floor/s
10 Bloomsbury Way, WC1*
03
Lessor
London & Regional
U/O
pt u/o
y
Derwent London
Almacantar
*7th-9th floors, c.40,000 sq ft u/o, **4th floor, 13,300 sq ft u/o
Market Watch | West End offices
MAP 1
Savills West End office submarkets
Please contact us for further information
Tracy Collins
Director
0207 409 8958
[email protected]
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Director
0207 409 8712
[email protected]
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Associate Director
0207 409 8740
[email protected]
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Associate Director
0207 409 8764
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Director
0207 409 8803
[email protected]
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Director
0207 409 8778
[email protected]
Mark Gilbart-Smith
Director
0207 409 5925
[email protected]
Andrew Wedderspoon
Kuldeep Lalli
Associate
Research
0207 409 8706
0207 016 3832
[email protected] [email protected]
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