1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. oil

October 22, 2014
Blake Fernandez504.582.2528
[email protected]
WEEKLY REFINING INDICATORS REPORT
Leonard Raymond504.582.2884
[email protected]
WEEK ENDING 10/17/2014
Quick Take: Consecutive weeks of healthy crude inventory
builds won’t serve as an upside catalyst for the oil markets
near-term. The stockpiles are mainly a function of lower
refinery utilization (fall turnarounds) and fairly elevated crude
imports as differentials have been compressed. The utilization
and imports should normalize over time but the demand
backdrop has been surprisingly lackluster considering the
recent decline in prices (for context Y/Y trailing 4-wk average
gasoline demand -0.2% and distillate -0.6%). We will be
closely monitoring the import/export movements over the
coming weeks as European refining margins have improved
which may pressure US product exports to the region and/or
increase gasoline imports into the East Coast.
•
•
•
Days of Crude Demand Cover
27x
25x
23x
21x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Gasoline Demand Cover
Trailing 4-week average crude throughput is 2.9% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate October demand cover of
24.0 days (October ‘13 = 25.4 days, October 09-13 avg. =
24.7).
Trailing 4-week average gasoline demand is 0.2% below
the year-ago comp. We estimate October demand cover of
23.5 days (October ‘13 = 23.9 days, October 09 -13 avg. =
23.6).
29x
27x
25x
23x
21x
Jan
Trailing 4-week average distillate demand is 0.6% below
the year-ago comp. We estimate October demand cover of
34.3 days (October ‘13 = 31.5 days, October 09-13 avg. =
37.8).
Mar
May
Jul
5-yr Avg.
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Distillate Demand Cover
55x
•
Trailing 4-week average total product demand is 2.2%
above the year-ago comp. We estimate October demand
cover of 59.5 days (October ‘13 = 58.2 days, October 09-13
avg. = 58.4).
48x
41x
34x
27x
20x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
2014
Days of Total Product Demand Cover
65x
60x
55x
50x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
2013
Sep
Nov
2014
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Howard Weil is a division of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group, and represents Scotiabank’s energy equities
business in the United States. All relevant disclosures and certifications begin on Page 12 of this report.
Howard Weil | Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.  1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500  New Orleans, LA 70163
Page 1 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
DOE Inventories & Imports (000s)
TOTAL U.S.
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
Inventories
Crude
377,684
379,784
-1%
359,564
5%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock) 204,374
215,504
-5%
208,175
-2%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
125,671
125,774
0%
145,517
-14%
14,670
111,001
19,737
106,037
-26%
5%
37,907
107,610
-61%
3%
7,477
7,656
-2%
8,803
-15%
438
438
0%
657
-33%
89
117
-24%
127
-30%
15,208
14,855
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
Imports
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
Crude Throughput
Refinery Utilization
86.7%
85.9%
2%
1%
14,505
84.5%
5%
3%
REGIONAL INVENTORY
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
PADD 1 (Northeast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
11,398
11,796
-3%
11,961
-5%
52,156
57,168
-9%
53,282
-2%
14,470
18,044
-20%
16,145
43,766
39,633
10%
57,104
-23%
7,119
36,647
12,532
27,101
-43%
35%
29,983
27,121
-76%
35%
95,418
45,364
101,502
49,735
-6%
93,714
49,574
-8%
PADD 2 (Midwest)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
-9%
2%
5,667
6,704
-15%
6,334
27,631
28,549
-3%
28,763
-4%
195,738
72,742
194,383
74,223
1%
183,109
71,049
7%
-2%
9,840
9,937
-1%
11,478
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
39,077
40,913
-4%
43,965
-11%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
20,269
19,372
5%
17,253
17%
6,749
3,806
6,743
3,858
0%
-1%
6,294
3,136
21%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
54,861
27,364
52,731
27,635
-1%
53,528
27,976
-2%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
11,390
12,821
-11%
12,550
-9%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
2%
PADD 4 (Rockies)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
7%
PADD 5 (West Coast)
October 22, 2014
4%
2%
Page 2 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Demand vs. Supply Charts
US Crude Demand (000 Bbl/d)
US Crude Stocks (000 Bbls)
17,000
400,000
15,750
350,000
14,500
13,250
300,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
Jul
'13
Sep
'14
Nov
5-yr Avg
U.S. Gasoline Stocks (000 Bbls)
U.S. Gasoline Demand (000 Bbl/d)
250,000
9,850
9,375
225,000
8,900
200,000
8,425
175,000
7,950
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
'13
'14
Sep
Jan
Nov
Mar
May
Jul
'13
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Demand (000 Bbl/d)
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Stocks (000 Bbls)
4,450
180,000
160,000
4,000
140,000
3,550
120,000
3,100
100,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
'13
US Total Product Demand (000 Bbl/d)
20,750
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Total Product Stocks (000 Bbls)
1,200,000
1,150,000
19,500
1,100,000
18,250
1,050,000
17,000
1,000,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
October 22, 2014
Jul
'14
Sep
5-yr Avg
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Page 3 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Refinery Utilization
US Total Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD I Refinery Utilization (%)
95
100.0
90
90.0
85
80.0
80
70.0
75
60.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
'13
Jun
Jul
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
5-yr Avg
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD III Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD II Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Jan Feb
Nov Dec
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD V Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD IV Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
October 22, 2014
Aug Sep Oct
'14
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
Page 4 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
East Coast 6-3-2-1 (Brent + Freight)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
QTD 14
$3.70
$8.39
$7.46
$8.75
$10.40
East Coast 6-3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$20.03
$21.18
$22.08
$20.55
QTD 14
$20.65
'13
'14
Chicago 2-1-1
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$9.47
$10.86
$14.05
$12.11
'13
'14
Gulf Coast 3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
QTD 14
$8.80
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
($5.00)
5-yr Range
October 22, 2014
'13
'14
Page 5 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
West Coast 5-3-2 (ANS cif W. Coast)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$12.97
$14.00
$19.41
$16.85
QTD 14
$18.36
West Coast 5-3-2
$42.50
$34.00
$25.50
$17.00
$8.50
$0.00
5-yr Range
NW Europe 2-1-1 (Brent)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$8.30
$8.97
$11.54
$12.70
QTD 14
$12.00
'13
'14
NW Europe 2-1-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Singapore 2-1-1 (Dubai)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.43
$14.86
$13.88
$13.89
QTD 14
$13.12
'13
'14
Singapore 2-1-1
$30.00
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
October 22, 2014
'13
'14
Page 6 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Maya
LLS- Maya
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.59
$15.17
$9.76
$10.09
$24
$18
$12
QTD 14
$9.38
$6
$0
'13
$5.28
$3.73
$4.73
$3.70
QTD 14
$3.78
5-yr Avg
LLS - Mars
LLS - Mars
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$12
$9
$6
$3
$0
($3)
'13
LLS - ANS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($4.08)
($1.52)
($4.05)
($1.24)
'14
5-yr Avg
LLS - ANS
$15
$10
$5
$0
QTD 14
$2.55
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
$3.61
$5.84
$2.41
$3.43
QTD 14
$2.97
5-yr Avg
LLS - WTI
LLS - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$35
$28
$21
$14
$7
$0
($7)
'13
October 22, 2014
'14
5-yr Avg
Page 7 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Brent
LLS - Brent
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
QTD 14
($8.36)
($3.51)
($4.35)
($0.94)
$0.37
$10
$5
$0
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
QTD 14
$11.97
$9.35
$6.75
$4.37
$2.60
5-yr Avg
Brent - WTI
Brent - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'13
$3.85
$5.45
$7.35
$8.86
QTD 14
$4.97
5-yr Avg
WTI-WTS
WTI - WTS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
($5)
'13
QTD 14
$23.60
$12.95
$11.47
$10.81
$8.00
5-yr Avg
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'13
October 22, 2014
'14
'10-'12 Avg
Page 8 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
CFTC: Non-Commercial Positions
NYMEX WTI
NYMEX WTI: Open Interest vs. Price
Net Long (Short) Position
450,000
300,000
317,727 302,564 299,982
297,281 296,052 295,946 293,683 278,780
150,000
0
8/29/14
9/5/14
9/12/14
9/19/14
9/26/14
$120.00
1.75
$95.00
1.5
$70.00
1.25
$45.00
1
$20.00
2009
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14
2010
2011
2012
Open Interest
NYMEX RBOB
2014
WTI
Net Long (Short) Position
Net Long (Short) Position
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
5,000
1,545
76
0
75,000
41,668
41,377
40,453
35,048
37,456
43,322
48,042
34,686
25,000
# of contracts
# of contracts
2013
NYMEX #2 Heating Oil
100,000
50,000
WTI ($/bbl)
# of contracts
600,000
Oil Open Interest (MM Contracts)
2
1 contract = 1,000 barrels
8/29/14
(5,000)
(10,000)
8/29/14
9/5/14
October 22, 2014
9/12/14
9/19/14
9/26/14
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14
9/12/14
9/19/14
(2,575)
(2,674)
9/26/14
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14
(7,137)
(10,037)
(15,000)
0
9/5/14
(20,000)
(13,887)
(18,645)
Page 9 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Shipping
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: CRUDE OIL
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: GASOLINE
WTI-Brent
(Net of Freight)
USAC-NWE
(Net of Freight)
20.0
$3.00
$ per barrel
$0.00
8/29/14
9/5/14
9/12/14
9/19/14
9/26/14
($0.55)
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14
($0.39)
($1.07)
($3.00)
($2.90)
($2.41)
($3.30)
($4.01)
($6.00)
cents per gallon
17.5
17.4
15.0
10.0
7.7
7.5
3.9
5.0
($5.62)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8/29/14
($9.00)
9/5/14
9/12/14
9/19/14
9/26/14
10/3/14
10/10/14 10/17/14
Gulf Coast/Europe Arbitrage: ULSD
Persian Gulf-USGC: Freight Rate (250' dirty tanker)
USGC-NWE
Trailing 8 weeks
(Net of Freight)
$1.20
3.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8/29/14
9/5/14
9/12/14
9/19/14
9/26/14
1.2
0.0
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14
$ per barrel
cents per gallon
$0.90
1.5
$0.66
$0.66
$0.59
$0.60
$0.52
$0.52
$0.59
$0.52
$0.46
$0.30
(1.5)
$0.00
8/29/14
(3.0)
9/5/14
9/12/14
9/19/14
9/26/14
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14
Total US Product Imports (000 Bbl/d)
Total US Product Exports (000 Bbl/d)
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
1
4
'14
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
'14
Note: Arb spread estimates provided above represent absolute values:
Positive #
Arb profit on NWE-sourced cargoes imported to U.S.
Negative #
Arb profit (ignore +/- sign) on U.S.-sourced cargoes exported to NWE
October 22, 2014
Page 10 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
WTI
BRENT
NYMEX WTI: 12-Month Strip
ICE Brent: 12-Month Strip
103
103
96
96
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
Energy Futures
89
82
75
CL2
CL3
9/26/2014
CL4
CL5
CL6
10/3/2014
CL7
CL8
CL9 CL10 CL11 CL12
10/10/2014
CO1
10/17/2014
CO2
CO3
9/26/2014
CO4
CO5
CO6
CO7
10/3/2014
CO8
RBOB
NYMEX RBOB: 12-Month Strip
ICE RBOB: 12-Month Strip
270
270
255
255
240
225
210
CO9 CO10 CO11 CO12
10/10/2014
RBOB
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
82
75
CL1
10/17/2014
240
225
210
XB1
XB2
XB3
9/26/2014
XB4
XB5
XB6
XB7
10/3/2014
XB8
XB9 XB10 XB11 XB12
10/10/2014
PG1
PG2
PG3
9/26/2014
10/17/2014
PG4
PG5
PG6
PG7
10/3/2014
PG8
PG9 PG10 PG11 PG12
10/10/2014
10/17/2014
#2 HEATING OIL
GASOIL
NYMEX #2 Oil: 12-Month Strip
ICE Gasoil: 12-Month Strip
280
280
268
268
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
89
256
244
232
256
244
232
HO1
HO2
HO3
9/26/2014
HO4
HO5
HO6
10/3/2014
HO7
HO8
HO9 HO10 HO11 HO12
10/10/2014
QS1
10/17/2014
QS2
QS3
9/26/2014
QS4
QS5
QS6
QS7
10/3/2014
QS8
QS9 QS10 QS11 QS12
10/10/2014
10/17/2014
3-2-1 REFINING MARGIN
2-1-1 REFINING MARGIN
NYMEX 3-2-1: 12-Month Strip
ICE 2-1-1: 12-Month Strip
27.00
27.00
21.00
21.00
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
15.00
9.00
3.00
15.00
9.00
3.00
1
2
9/26/2014
3
4
5
10/3/2014
6
7
8
9
10/10/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
10/17/2014
1
2
9/26/2014
3
4
5
6
10/3/2014
7
8
9
10/10/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
10/17/2014
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
October 22, 2014
Page 11 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Disclosures
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Analyst Certification
I, Blake Fernandez, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securities or issuers; and I, Blake Fernandez, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
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October 22, 2014
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