Danske Bank Markets in Northern Ireland
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Daily commentary
Tuesday, 28 October 2014
Key news



German IFO lowest in two years
UK CBI distributive trades better than forecast
Sterling edges up as Fed policy expectations peg back USD
Market movers today:
Markets overview

USD : Durable goods

USD : Consumer confidence
Good morning,
In a fairly quiet session in terms of macro-economic data yesterday the main highlight
came in the form of the latest German business confidence figures. These revealed
another drop from the previous period and showed that confidence has fallen to its
lowest level in almost two years. This latest indicator has added to the growing pile of
negative data for Europe’s largest economy and compounds fears about wider issues
outside of Germany. Issues such as geo politics, euro zone weakness, German economic
policy and of course deflation concerns have led to downward revisions of economic
growth. Elsewhere, a report from the Confederation of British Industry showed that its
October retail sales balance held steady at +31, beating economists’ forecasts of a fall
to +25..
Market rates
CCY pair
Market rate at
opening
GBP/USD
1.6114
GBP/EUR
1.2678
Looking at the currencies, sterling rose against the dollar as it struggled after US
pending home sales numbers grew less than expected along with a slowdown in the
services sector. This along with expectations that the Fed will emphasize this week that
US interest rates are likely to stay lower for longer may continue to support cable for the
time being. Against the euro, the pound traded flat despite the positive retail sales
figures as the single currency was generally supported following the stress testing of EU
banks that found smaller than feared capital requirements among the regions banks.
EUR/USD
1.2707
EUR/GBP
0.7888
GBP/AUD
1.8244
GBP/CAD
1.8088
GBP/CHF
1.5292
GBP/DKK
9.4381
Staying with the currencies, the pound is starting the day trading at just over $1.61 and
just under €1.27
GBP/HKD
12.5003
GBP/JPY
GBP/NOK
Focus today
173.8700
10.6429
GBP/NZD
2.0404
No specific economic data out of the UK this morning so the pounds direction is likely to
be guided by events elsewhere. The main data focus is likely to be on the US for the latest
durable goods order data with the consensus is for an increase of 0.5% m/m in
September. Staying in the US , consumer confidence is also released with analysts
expecting a increase in October following a slight decline in September. The decline in
September followed a period of increases and the trend is still up, although there was a
clear setback in September.
GBP/SEK
11.8506
USD/CNY
6.1133
Have a good day - Andrew
Commodities and Stock Markets
LIBOR (last business day setting)
GBP 1 month
0.506
GBP 3 month
0.55713
GBP 6 month
0.69075
Crude oil ($/barrel)
85.57
Gold ($/oz)
1230
FTSE 100
Today's Major Data Releases
Time
Region
Event
13.30
USD
Durable goods
15.00
USD
Consumer confidence
Period
Expectation
mm
Sept
0.4%
Index
Oct
87.2
6363.46
Dow Jones
16817.94
Nikkei 225
15329.91
Hang Sang
23520.36
German DAX
9033.2
Source : Reuters
Danske Bank Markets in Northern Ireland
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Danske Bank Markets in Northern Ireland
Contact List
Markets Team
Maureen Brown
George McMaster
Heather Harman
Andrew Lam
Aran Shawcross
Caroline Kine
Head of Markets
Brian Telford
+44 (0) 28 90891111
+44 (0) 28 90891100
+44 (0) 28 90891111
+44 (0) 28 90891111
+44 (0) 28 90891111
+44 (0) 28 90891111
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+44 (0) 28 90891111
[email protected]
Telephone calls with Danske Bank may be recorded
Danske Bank Markets
PO Box 183
1st Floor
Donegall Square West
Belfast
BT1 6JS
Markets E Mail:
[email protected]
Markets Fax Number :
+44 (0) 28 9004 9701
web-site:
www.danskebank.co.uk
SWIFT address:
DABAGB2B
Business hours:
Monday – Friday
8.00 : 17.00
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