Nestlé Refrigerated Foods Company Marketing Research Begum Abad Hanuman Nicole Erard-Coupé Naveen Background •1987- Nestle’ enters the refrigerated food market by acquiring Contadina Pasta and Sauces. •Non—commodity refrigerated foods was a relatively undeveloped category in U.S in 1987 •Refrigerated foods were responsible for 7% of Nestlé's global sales despite little contribution from the potentially large U.S. Market Market Summary: Refrigerated Foods • Based on market research, Nestlé's decided to launch Contadina • Contadina Fresh Past & Sauces rolled out nationally in 2nd half of 1988 • Product launch was very successful: – $75 mil. Retail sales in 1988 – $150 mil. Retail sales by 1990 – Pasta line accounted for nearly 80% of sales volume Market Summary: Refrigerated Foods • Given Contadina’s success, the NRFC began a product development process for a refrigerated pizza concept • The pizza market was an $18.4 billion market • By 1989 NRFC developed 2 new pizza concepts – Pizza Kit – Preassembled, heat and eat Pizza Market Summary: Pizza • Pizza market Statistics: – 88% of all pizzas sold by restaurants – 60% of pizzas eaten at home – 76% of all U.S. families had eaten restaurant pizza w.in past 6 months – Pizza consumption strongest in northern and eastern parts of U.S. – 10,000(+) franchised pizza restaurants – 25,000 pizza outlets – frozen pizza market more fragmented w/o clear market leader Nestlé's Research of at Home Pizza Consumption delivered/take-out 5% 4% frozen pizza (supermarkets) 16% 75% fresh pizza (grocery stores) homemade pizza Product Development: Pizza Kit • Kit included: – 12” crust – Sauce – Cheese • Sauce: Tomato or Pesto • Additional Toppings: Pepperoni, Sausage, 3-Cheese, Mushrooms & Bell Peppers (Sold Separately) • Serve 2-3 people Market Research: Concept Test • Preliminary Concept test (200 Interviews) – Positive purchase intent was 58% (49% among males, 66% among females) – Results: • 128 Heavy Take-out users(once every 2-3 weeks(+)) • 115 favorable to concept (out of which, 60 said they would buy Contadina instead of another product) Market Research: Bases II Line Extension Study • Involved both Concept & in-home product use test: – Pizza Kit w/ Toppings Sold Separately – Pizza Kit only (No Toppings Sold Separately) • Determine the impact on trial kit by availability of separate toppings • Analyze Strengths and Weaknesses of both concepts Pizza Kit Product – Support either Pizza Kit with or without toppings Pricing (NRFC expected factory pricing to be 2/3 of retail prices) – $6.39 for Kit – $1.29 for each additional Topping Place – National distribution possible, could install a pizza line @ the Danville factory Promotion (Total $18 mil.) • • • $9 mil. Advertising $5 mil. Consumer Promotions $4 mil. Trade Promotions Target Market • 95.5 Mil. Households – Contadina Pasta Users would Represent approx. 24% – MRD felt Parent Brand Penetration could range btw. 5%25% (recommended volume projections be sensitive to this range) • Based on Promotion Plan, NRFC projected 37% overall awareness – Parent Brand Users likely to be more aware of Contadina name NRFC Data on Consumer Awareness & Purchase Assumptions Pizza Kit & Toppings Pizza Only Awareness Users 60% 60% Non-Users 30% 30% Overall 37% 37% ACV 58% 58% Units @ Trial 1.2 Kits 1.1 Kits Repeat rate 22% 22% Repeat Purchase Units 1 Kits 1 Kits Repeat Purchase Occasions 2 2 Purchase Assumptions Pizza Kit • Favorable to Pizza Toppings – 50% would purchase toppings every time purchased kit – 25% would purchase toppings ½ the time • Business Requirements for Pizza – $45 mil factory dollar sales – $12 mil project Investment costs – .3% share retail pizza market • Should NRFC launch a pizza product – Which option – How large market would they find – What market share could be achieved Analysis: Volume Estimation Fixed Data Pizza Calculations US Households Trial Penetration [%] Trial Unit Households Definitely Buy Adjustment 80% Probably Buy Adjustment 30% Weighted Trial Adjustments for: Awareness Distribution (ACV) Adjusted Trial Rate Trial Households Trial Transaction Size Trial Units Option A: Pizza Kit & Toppings Contadina Users Non-Users Option B: Pizza only Contadina Users Non-Users 95,500,000 80% 30% 24% 22920000 30% 24% 57% 17% 41% 76% 72580000 15% 12% 59% 18% 30% 24% 22920000 22% 18% 48% 14% 32% 76% 72580000 12% 10% 42% 13% 22% 60% 58% 14% 3278201.76 1.2 3933842 30% 58% 5% 3750789.24 1.2 4500947 60% 58% 11% 2552371.20 1.1 2807608 30% 58% 4% 2803620.24 1.1 3083982 8,434,789 5,891,590 Analysis: Repeat Purchases Option A: Pizza Kit & Toppings Contadina Users Non-Users Repeat Purchase Calculations Repeat Rate Repeat Households Repeat Purchases Repeat Occasions Repeat Purchase Units Repeat Units Total Units 22% 721204 2 1442409 1 1442409 22% 825174 2 1650347 1 1650347 5376251 6151294 11,527,545 Option B: Pizza only Contadina Users Non-Users 22% 561522 2 1123043 1 1123043 22% 616796 2 1233593 1 1233593 3930652 4317575 8,248,227 Analysis: Pizza Toppings Option A: Pizza Kit & Toppings Contadina Users Non-Users Toppings Calculations Topping Trial Rate Calculation 50% Buy Topping Every Time 25% Buy Topping Half the Time Trial Pizza Units Trial Units with Toppings Trial Transaction Size Trial Toppings Units Repeat Toppings Calculations Repeat Units Repeat Topping Trial Repeat Toppings Transaction Size Repeat Toppings Units Total Toppings 63% 63% 3933842 2458651 1.5 3687977 4500947 2813092 1.5 4219638 1442409 63% 1 901505 4589482 1650347 63% 1 1031467 5251105 9,840,587 Analysis: Revenue Estimation Revenue Estimation for Nestle's Refrigerated Pizza Launch Fixed Data Total Market [Units] Pizza Toppings Total Market at [$]/unit Pizza Toppings Revenue [$] Total Retail Market Total Factory Market NRFC Business Requirement Option A: Pizza Kit & Toppings Contadina Users Non-Users 5376251 4589482 $6.39 $1.29 6151294 5251105 $34,354,243.16 $39,306,770.92 $5,920,432.38 $6,773,925.37 $40,274,675.54 $46,080,696.29 $86,355,372 $57,570,248 $45,000,000 $12,570,248 Option B: Pizza only Contadina Users Non-Users 3930652 4317575 $25,116,864.03 $27,589,305.33 $25,116,864.03 $27,589,305.33 $52,706,169 $35,137,446 $45,000,000 -$9,862,554 Analysis: Sensitivity Analysis • 5% Penetration Pizza & Toppings Pizza Only Total Trial Units 6,445,734 4,439,896 Total Retail Market $65,991,428 $39,719,312 Total Factory Market $43,994,285 $26,479,541 • 15% Penetration Pizza & Toppings Pizza Only Total Trial Units 7,492,605 5,204,552 Total Retail Market $76,709,293 $46,554,500 Total Factory Market $51,139,529 $31,036,333 Summary • Should launch Pizza Kit with Toppings • Require @ least 7% Market Penetration to meet Basic Business Requirement of $45 million factory dollar sales ($45,423,334) • Market Size Pizza Topping 5% 8,809,170 7,52,023 15% 10,239,894 8,741,373 24% 11,527,545 9,840,587 • Market Share Recommendations • Nestle should first work a lot to refine the taste of it’s pizza. • It should also lower the prices of its offerings. • Company should fine tune its manufacturing facilities before the product launch. • Post launch, company should use the same distribution network as it did for Pasta. • The product should also be supported heavily with huge advertising outlays. What Happened? • 1991-Nestle launches Contadina Pizza. • Positioned as a quick, convenient, yet fresh alternative to frozen pizza. • Pizza introduced in a kit format composing of a 12 inch refrigerated pizza shell, packed together with separate pouches of cheese and sauce. What happened? • Toppings also were merchandized adjacent to the kit. • Toppings included pepperoni, three cheese blend and Italian Sausage. • Pizza kit was sold for $6.19 • Toppings were priced at 1.49 What happened? • Product launched in selected cities. • Marketing support amounted to $11 million in 1991 and $10.5 in 1992. • Company faced disappointing results by not meeting any targets • Sold 4 million units in Year 1 that amounted to $13 millions in sales. What happened? • Tried to improve the advertising themes by testing three more ads. • All these ads also failed in terms of recall. • Company maneuvered with price promotions but failed in this aspect. • Company had 60% spoilage on the toppings What happened? • Abandoned the toppings • Sold pepperoni and cheese kit and a cheese kit at $5.99 and $5.49 respectively. • Company paid the price for relying on the pasta data that was in the initial stage. • “Pizza wars” also hampered the profits What Happened? Marketscan: Americans Hunger for a More Homey Pizza, WSJ, June 29, 1993 1993 • Kit sold for $5 • Held 15% of the $170 mil-a-year market for refrigerated pizzas & pizza kits • Kraft introduced Boboli Shells • 1997 – Nestlé sold Contadina to Del Monte – Excluded from sale was line of refrigerated pasta & sauces • Nestlé's changed name of refrigerated pasta and sauces to Buitoni Volume Estimation Revenue Estimation for Nestle's Refrigerated Pizza Launch Option A: Pizza Kit & Toppings Option B: Pizza only Fixed Data Contadina Users Non-Users Contadina Users Non-Users Total Market [Units] Pizza 5376251 6151294 3930652 4317575 Toppings 4589482 5251105 Total Market at [$]/unit Pizza $6.39 $34,354,243.16 $39,306,770.92 $25,116,864.03 $27,589,305.33 Toppings $1.29 $5,920,432.38 $6,773,925.37 Revenue [$] $40,274,675.54 $46,080,696.29 $25,116,864.03 $27,589,305.33 Total Retail Market $86,355,372 Total Factory Market $57,570,248 NRFC Business Requirement $45,000,000 $12,570,248 $52,706,169 $35,137,446 $45,000,000 -$9,862,554
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