1. business and industrial

2QFY2015 Result Update | IT
October 31, 2014
Tech Mahindra
BUY
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
(` cr)
2QFY15
1QFY15
% chg (qoq)
2QFY14
Net revenue
5,488
EBITDA
1,097
EBITDA margin (%)
Adj. PAT
% chg (yoy)
5,122
7.2
4,772
15.0
928
18.2
1,111
(1.2)
20.0
18.1
187bp
23.3
(329)bp
720
631
14.1
718
0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research;
For 2QFY2015, Tech Mahindra posted marginally better-than-expected numbers
on the top-line front, while the net profit came in below expectations. The
company posted a revenue of US$900mn (V/s an expected US$890mn), a qoq
growth of 5.2%. Revenue in Constant Currency (CC) terms rose 6.2% qoq. On the
operating front, the EBIT margin came in at 17.4% (V/s an expected 17.2%), an
expansion of ~220bp qoq, on lower employee costs during the period. Thus, the
net profit came in at `720cr (V/s an expected `748cr) a 14.1% qoq growth. The
net profit was impacted by a forex loss of `45.8cr, incurred during the quarter.
We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of `2,887.
Result highlights: For the quarter, the company posted marginally better-thanexpected numbers on the top-line front, while the net profit came in below
expectations. The company posted a revenue of US$900mn (V/s an expected
US$890mn), a qoq growth of 5.2%. Revenue in Constant Currency (CC) terms
rose 6.2% qoq. On the operating front, the EBIT margin came in at 17.4% (V/s an
expected 17.2%), an expansion of ~220bp qoq, on lower employee costs during
the period. Thus, the net profit came in at `720cr (V/s an expected `748cr) a
14.1% qoq growth. The net profit was impacted by a forex loss of `45.8cr,
incurred during the quarter..
Outlook and valuation: The Management remains confident of growth from the
non-British Telecom (BT) business with the company continuing to see a robust
deal pipeline across geographies. We expect a CAGR of 15.7% and 15.0% in
USD and INR revenue respectively over FY2014-16E. The PAT is expected to grow
at a CAGR of 21.8% over FY2014-16. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock
with a target price of `2,887.
`2,480
`2,887
Investment Period
12 months
Stock Info
IT
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
58,413
Net debt (` cr)
(4,393)
Beta
0.3
52 Week High / Low
2,542/1,516
Avg. Daily Volume
74,226
Face Value (`)
10
BSE Sensex
27,346
Nifty
8,169
Reuters Code
TEML.BO
TECHM@IN
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
36.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
12.7
FII / NRIs / OCBs
40.6
Indian Public / Others
10.7
Abs. (%)
Sensex
Tech Mahindra
3m
1yr
3yr
4.8
30.0
53.6
15.0
59.5 322.5
Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
Net sales
11,702
14,332
18,831
21,636
24,211
% chg
127.7
22.5
31.4
14.9
11.9
Net profit
1,806
2,115
2,671
3,187
3,900
% chg
129.8
17.1
26.3
19.3
22.4
EBITDA margin (%)
16.7
21.4
22.2
22.3
22.3
EPS (`)
78.2
91.3
114.4
136.5
167.0
P/E (x)
31.7
27.2
21.7
18.2
14.8
P/BV (x)
6.8
8.6
6.4
4.8
3.7
RoE (%)
37.5
30.9
29.1
26.3
24.4
RoCE (%)
20.1
27.6
31.3
28.8
25.8
4.8
3.9
2.9
2.4
2.0
28.8
18.2
12.9
10.6
8.9
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as on October 30, 2014
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Sarabjit kour Nangra
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
[email protected]
1
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2015 performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
(` cr)
2QFY15
1QFY15
% chg (qoq)
2QFY14
% chg (yoy)
1HFY15
1HFY14
% chg (yoy)
Net revenue
5,488
5,122
7.2
4,772
15.0
10,609
8,875
19.5
Cost of revenue
3,616
3,439
5.1
2,883
25.4
7,055
5,452
29.4
Gross profit
1,872
1,682
11.3
1,889
(0.9)
3,554
3,423
3.8
775
754
2.7
778
(0.4)
1,529
1,447
5.6
SG&A expense
EBITDA
1,097
928
18.2
1,111
(1.2)
2,026
1,976
2.5
Dep. and amortization
143
149
(4.5)
122
16.6
292
240
21.5
EBIT
955
779
22.5
989
(3.4)
1,734
1,736
(0.1)
4
4
24
8
46
58
89
38
147
245
Interest
Other income
PBT
1,008
864
16.6
1,003
0.5
1,873
1,935
(3.2)
Income taxes
281
231
21.6
284
(1.2)
512
517
(1.1)
PAT
728
634
14.8
719
1.2
1,361
1,418
(4.0)
8
3
11
13
720
631
1,350
1,405
Profit from associates
-
-
-
-
-
Exceptional item
-
-
-
-
-
Reported PAT
720
631
14.1
718
0.2
1,350
1,405
(3.9)
Adj. PAT
720
631
14.1
718
0.2
1,350
1,405
(3.9)
Diluted EPS
29.8
26.2
14.0
30.3
(1.6)
126.8
59.3
113.8
Gross margin (%)
34.1
32.8
126bp
39.6
(548)bp
33.5
38.6
(507)bp
EBITDA margin (%)
20.0
18.1
187bp
23.3
(329)bp
19.1
22.3
(317)bp
EBIT margin (%)
17.4
15.2
218bp
20.7
(332)bp
16.3
19.6
(322)bp
PAT margin (%)
13.1
12.3
80bp
15.1
(194)bp
12.7
15.8
(310)bp
Minority interest
PAT after minority interest
0
14.1
718
0.2
(3.9)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2015 – Actual vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimate
Var. (%)
Net revenue
5,488
5,409
1.5
EBIT margin (%)
17.4
17.2
20bp
PAT
720
748
(3.8)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Strong revenue growth
The company posted a revenue of US$900mn (V/s an expected US$890mn),
posting a qoq growth of 5.2%. In INR terms, the company posted net sales of
`5,488cr (V/s an expected `5,409cr), a qoq growth of 7.2%. Revenue in Constant
Currency (CC) terms grew 6.2% qoq, during the period.
In terms of geography, the growth was mainly driven by USA, which posted a qoq
growth of 9.7%, mostly driven by top clients. The company also added new clients
with the repeat business dipping to 97% from 99% in 1QFY2015. In terms of
verticals, the Telecom sector grew by 7.3% qoq, Manufacturing 5.2% qoq and BFSI
grew by 5.2% qoq, while Technology, Media & Entertainment declined by
6.5% qoq.
October 31, 2014
2
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Trend in revenue growth (qoq)
950.0
7.0%
5.2%
900.0
3.7%
800.0
5.0%
4.3%
850.0
6.0%
4.0%
4.4%
4.7%
3.0%
750.0
2.0%
700.0
1.0%
0.0%
650.0
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
Sales ( in US $mn)
1QFY15
2QFY15
qoq (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Growth in industry segments
Particulars
% to revenue
% growth (qoq)
% growth (yoy)
Telecom
52%
7.3
28.6
Manufacturing
18%
5.2
12.5
TME
8%
(6.5)
(13.7)
BFSI
10%
5.2
31.9
RTL
6%
5.2
18.7
Others
6%
5.2
18.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Geography wise, revenue from RoW declined by 4.3% qoq due to completion of a
few system integration projects in the region. The US exhibited solid growth of
9.7% qoq, making it the second quarter of strong growth. Europe also bounced
back to end the period with a qoq growth of 5.2%.
Exhibit 5: Growth trend in geographies
Particulars
% to revenue
% growth (qoq)
% growth (yoy)
Americas
47%
9.7
32.2
Europe
31%
5.2
11.5
RoW
22%
(4.3)
3.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Hiring and client metrics
During the quarter, the company reported a net addition of 2,580 employees,
taking its overall headcount to 95,309. The BPO headcount has continuously been
on a declining trajectory since the last few quarters and currently stands at 22,433.
The company witnessed an addition of 2,080 software professionals during the
quarter. The overall headcount increased by 2,580 to 95,309. Attrition (on LTM
basis) was at 18%.
October 31, 2014
3
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 6: Employee metrics
Particulars
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
Software professionals
55,432
57,601
60,997
64,095
66,175
BPO professionals
23,225
23,213
21,830
21,936
22,433
Sales & support
6,577
6,585
6,614
6,698
6,701
Total employees
85,234
87,399
89,441
92,729
95,309
14
15
15
16
18
Attritions (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Trend in utilization rate
76
75
(%)
74
75
75
74
73
73
72
72
71
70
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
Utilization (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
In terms of client additions, the company added a net 17 clients during the period,
taking the active client lists to 649 V/s 632 in 1QFY2015. A majority of the client
wins have been in the US$1-5mn order size and one client was added in the >US
$20mn and >US$ 50mn category respectively.
Exhibit 8: Client metrics
Particulars
Total active clients
US$1mn–5mn
US$5mn–10mn
US$10mn–20mn
US$20mn–50mn
US$50mn+
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
576
146
29
22
16
10
605
164
28
22
14
11
629
164
23
25
16
11
632
162
29
22
18
11
649
159
36
20
18
12
Source: Company, Angel Research
Operating margin dips
For 2QFY2015, the company’s EBITDA margin moved up by 187bp qoq to 20.0%.
Gross margin for the quarter expanded by 126bp qoq to 34.1%. The EBIT margin
moved up by 218bp qoq to 17.4%, on back of absence of visa cost, leverage at
SG&A from strong revenue growth, Rupee depreciation (50bp) and increased
utilization.
October 31, 2014
4
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 9: Margin trend (%)
45
40
35
39.6
38.7
30
25
20
23.3
20.7
15
32.8
32.8
18.1
18.1
34.1
23.2
20.3
18.4
15.2
20.0
17.4
10
2QFY14
3QFY14
Gross margin
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Growth prospects robust: The Management indicated that the company remains
confident of growth from the non-BT business with it continuing to see a robust
deal pipeline across geographies. Tech Mahindra has been able to scale up well
across verticals through its focused approach on large deals. We expect a CAGR
of 15.7% and 15.0% in USD and INR revenue respectively over FY2014-16E.
Deal pipeline healthy: Tech Mahindra remains confident of improving revenue
growth citing healthy deal pipeline along with pick up in discretionary spending
primarily in the US. The Management sounded confident of demand from BFSI,
healthcare (healthy demand across players and providers), manufacturing and
retail. Tech Mahindra is following a two-pronged strategy to expand its enterprise
business end-to-end offerings in leadership areas like manufacturing and niche
offering-led entry strategy in areas like BFSI where it is a challenger. Better crosssell of services can help grow marquee accounts post-merger. We expect the
enterprise segment growth to be led by broader revival in the markets and
deepening of existing relationships.
Outlook and valuation
The Management expects to use the cash balance of ~US$610mn for inorganic
growth initiatives. The company expects to maintain margins in the medium term
through a) greater scale and hence SG&A leverage, b) improving utilization (room
to improve utilization by ~200bp) and c) broadening the employee pyramid
(~33% of employees in 0-3 years experience range). However, in spite of
conservative estimates, wherein we have assumed EBITDA margins at 22.4% and
23.0% in FY2015 and FY2016 (almost same as 22.2% in FY2014), the stock
trades at 14.6x FY2016E. We recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of
`2,887.
October 31, 2014
5
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 10: Key assumptions
FY2015E
FY2016E
Revenue growth (US$)
16.5
15.0
USD-INR rate (realized)
60.0
60.0
Revenue growth (`)
15.0
15.0
EBITDA margin (%)
22.4
23.0
Tax rate (%)
26.3
26.4
EPS growth (%)
20.0
23.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: One-year forward PE (x)
3,100
2,800
2,500
2,200
(`)
1,900
1,600
1,300
1,000
700
400
100
Oct-08
Jul-09
Apr-10
Price
Jan-11
16
Oct-11
13
Jul-12
10
Apr-13
Jan-14
7
Oct-14
4
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: P/E includes profits of Mahindra Satyam from FY2012
Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt Price
Upside
FY2016E
FY2016E
FY2014-16E
FY2016E
FY2016E
(`)
(`)
(%)
EBITDA (%)
P/E (x)
EPS CAGR (%)
EV/Sales (x)
RoE (%)
HCL Tech
Buy
1,577
1,968
24.8
24.0
14.4
11.6
2.1
23.9
Infosys
Buy
3,946
4,700
19.1
27.8
16.7
11.3
2.8
20.8
TCS
Accumulate
2,558
2,833
10.8
29.3
19.9
14.9
4.1
37.0
Tech Mahindra
Buy
2,480
2,887
16.4
22.8
15.1
21.8
1.8
24.9
Wipro
Buy
560
697
24.6
23.7
13.6
14.0
1.8
20.3
Source: Company, Angel Research.
October 31, 2014
6
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Company Background
Tech Mahindra was founded in 1986 as a joint venture between Mahindra Group
and British Telecom (BT). Later on, it started servicing other external clients as well
(solely in the telecom industry), though it still derives ~13% of its revenue from BT.
In June 2009, Tech Mahindra acquired a 42.7% stake in erstwhile Satyam
Computers (now Mahindra Satyam) and now the latter is entirely merged with the
company.
Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
Net sales
11,702
14,332
18,831
21,656
24,904
Cost of revenues
7,541
9,001
11,700
13,377
15,266
Gross profit
4,162
5,331
7,131
8,279
9,638
35.6
37.2
37.9
38.2
38.7
2,210
2,268
2,948
3,438
3,910
18.9
15.8
15.7
15.9
15.7
% of net sales
SG&A expenses
% of net sales
EBITDA
1,952
3,063
4,184
4,841
5,728
% of net sales
16.7
21.4
22.2
22.4
23.0
Dep. and amortization
319
390
522
602
626
% of net sales
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.5
1,633
2,674
3,662
4,240
5,102
% of net sales
14.0
18.7
19.4
19.6
20.5
Interest expense
107
92
67
67
67
Other income, net of forex
501
212
113
223
398
Profit before tax
2,027
2,793
3,707
4,396
5,433
Provision for tax
229
648
979
1,156
1,434
EBIT
% of PBT
11.3
23.2
26.4
26.3
26.4
1,798
2,146
2,728
3,240
3,999
-
-
-
-
-
Exceptional item
37
160
(217)
-
-
Minority interest
(8)
30
34
34
34
Reported PAT
1,843
1,955
2,917
3,206
3,965
Adjusted PAT
1,806
2,115
2,671
3,206
3,965
78.2
91.3
114.4
137.3
169.8
Recurring PAT
Share from associates
Fully diluted EPS (`)
October 31, 2014
7
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
231
232
234
234
234
Preference capital
-
-
-
-
-
Share premium
-
-
-
-
-
4,585
6,621
8,947
11,922
15,660
Equity capital
Profit and loss
Other reserves
-
1
2
2
2
4,816
6,854
9,182
12,157
15,895
Secured loans
623
322
309
309
309
Unsecured loans
527
531
54
54
54
1,150
853
363
363
363
Other long term liability
432
224
376
376
376
Long-term provisions
482
393
414
414
414
Net worth
Total debt
Minority interest
15
134
144
144
144
Amount pending investigation
1,230
1,230
1,230
1,230
1,230
Total capital employed
8,124
9,689
11,709
14,684
18,422
Gross block
2,478
3,611
5,460
6,460
7,460
(989)
(1,379)
(2,866)
(3,467)
(4,093)
1,488
2,232
2,594
2,993
3,367
Accumulated dep.
Net block
Capital WIP
Total fixed assets
Investments
260
266
266
266
2,491
2,861
2,469
2,143
35
36
36
36
36
515
743
914
1,051
1,208
1,207
1,207
-
-
1
Deferred tax asset, net
268
348
383
490
490
Other non-current assets
(94)
120
16
16
17
Long term loans and adv.
Interest in TML benefit trust
Inventories
15
11
10
11
11
Sundry debtors
2,722
3,369
4,349
5,001
5,751
Cash and cash equv.
3,096
3,463
4,756
7,479
11,363
Loans and advances
1,058
1,293
2,616
2,998
2,998
223
175
-
-
-
Current investments
October 31, 2014
368
1,856
Unbilled revenue
654
556
-
-
-
Sundry creditors
(691)
(858)
(1,549)
(1,782)
(2,049)
Other liabilities
(1,573)
(2,037)
(1,415)
(1,627)
(1,871)
Provision
(1,164)
(1,227)
(1,267)
(1,457)
(1,675)
Working capital
4,338
4,744
7,500
10,623
14,528
Total capital deployed
8,124
9,689
11,709
14,684
18,422
8
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
Pre tax profit from operations
Depreciation
Expenses (deffered)/written off/others
Pre tax cash from operations
Other income/prior period ad
Net cash from operations
Tax
Cash profits
FY2012 FY2013
FY2014E
FY2015E
FY2016E
1,526
2,581
2,728
3,240
3,999
319
390
522
602
626
-
-
-
-
-
1,845
2,971
3,250
3,842
4,625
510
182
113
223
398
2,354
3,153
3,363
4,065
5,023
(229)
(648)
(979)
(1,156)
(1,434)
2,125
2,505
2,384
2,909
3,589
(1,685)
(647)
(980)
(652)
(750)
(14)
4
1
(1)
-
(332)
(235)
(1,324)
(382)
-
443
167
692
232
267
1,141
673
(623)
212
244
(Inc)/dec in
Sundry Debtors
Inventories
Loans and advances
Sundry creditors
Others
Net trade working capital
(447)
(39)
(2,233)
(591)
(239)
1,678
2,466
151
2,319
3,350
(Inc)/dec in fixed assets
(1,497)
(1,025)
(369)
392
326
(Inc)/dec in investments
2,835
(1)
-
-
-
149
(611)
104
(0)
(1)
1,487
(1,636)
(265)
391
325
(33)
(297)
490
-
-
Cashflow from operating activities
(Inc)/dec in other non current assets
Cashflow from investing activities
Inc/(dec) in debt
Inc/(dec) in deferred revenue
40
(207)
-
-
-
Inc/(dec) in equity/premium
(155)
1
(1)
-
-
Inc/(dec) in minority interest
(1)
119
(9)
-
-
Addition to reserves on amalgamation
(60)
70
-
-
-
(127)
(149)
(231)
(231)
(228)
1,160
243
437
(336)
(463)
1,408
12
209
2,830
367
1,293
2,722
3,884
Cash at start of the year
267
3,096
3,463
4,756
7,479
Cash at end of the year
3,096
3,463
4,756
7,479
11,363
Dividends
Others
Cashflow from financing activities
Cash generated/(utilised)
October 31, 2014
9
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
P/E (on FDEPS)
31.7
27.2
21.7
18.1
14.6
P/CEPS
15.1
25.0
17.1
15.5
12.8
P/BVPS
6.8
8.6
6.4
4.8
3.7
Dividend yield (%)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
EV/Sales
4.8
3.9
2.9
2.4
1.9
EV/EBITDA
28.8
18.2
12.9
10.6
8.3
EV/Total assets
30.3
22.3
18.9
20.8
22.1
78.2
91.3
114.4
137.3
169.8
164.0
99.1
144.9
160.5
193.5
Valuation ratio (x)
Per share data (`)
EPS
Cash EPS
Dividend
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
365.2
289.6
386.9
512.3
669.8
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT)
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT)
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales)
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets)
6.3
5.8
6.6
8.8
11.6
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity)
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
38.3
28.5
31.8
26.4
24.9
RoCE (pre-tax)
20.1
27.6
31.3
28.9
27.7
Angel RoIC
36.8
46.2
54.8
61.1
75.1
RoE
37.5
30.9
29.1
26.4
24.9
Asset turnover (fixed assets)
6.3
5.8
6.6
8.8
11.6
Receivables days
59
78
78
78
78
Book value
Dupont analysis
Operating ROE (%)
Return ratios (%)
Turnover ratios( x)
October 31, 2014
10
Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Tech Mahindra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
Yes
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No
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Ratings (Returns):
October 31, 2014
Buy (> 15%)
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
11