Energimarknad i förändring
Stefan Karlsson
RenSo AB –
Renewable Solutions
Smögen 2015-06-23
Företagande, kapital, miljö & förnybar energi
Slide 1
Informationssamhället blev inte bara kontorsautomation
Ericsson Information Systems (EIS);
”The most expensive management training program
in the history of Swedish industry”
Swedish business daily newspaper
Office Automation;
• MD 150
• Alfaskop
• Eripax / Erimail
”There is no reason for any individual
to have a computer in his home”.
Ken Olsen, CEO of Digital Equipment
Slide 2
22 June, 2015
Distruptive Innovations in Communication
Slide 3
Men vi kallar dem fortfarande för ”telefoner”
Slide 4
22 June, 2015
Några nyckelbegrepp som drastiskt kommer
att påverka framtidens energimarknad
Disruptive innovation; ”Störande utveckling”
A disruptive innovation is an innovation that helps create a new market and value network,
and eventually disrupts an existing market and value network (over a few years or decades),
displacing an earlier technology, innovations that improve a product or service
in ways that the market does not expect.
Fyrbodalsk/seglingsmässig översättning; Ett ”slag” på marknadens utveckling
Stranded assetts; ”Strandade tillgångar”
Investments which are made but which, at some time prior to the end of their economic life,
are no longer able to earn an economic return, as a result of changes in the market and
regulatory environment
Fyrbodalsk/seglingsmässig översättning; Kapitaltillgångar ”som gått på grund”
Slide 5
Energimarknaden; Aktuell Status
Slide 6
Dagens kolberoende i G20-länderna
Slide 7
22 June, 2015
Risk för ”Stranded Assetts” inom oljeindustrin
Slide 8
22 June, 2015
Fracking kan drastiskt förändra den geopolitiska situationen
Slide 9
© SKF Group
Bakomliggande orsaker till tillväxten i förnybart
Growth in demand for energy
Reduction of CO2-emission
Demographic Dynamics
Environmental Focus
Security of energy supply
Resource Scarcity
• Population growth
• Global CO2 emission
• Peak-oil scenario
• Energy consumption correlated
to wealth development
• Climate Change
• Geopolitical risks of supply
• Kyoto and upcoming treaties
• Wind and solar resources are
domestic & free
China --------------------------
---------------------------
Europe
USA
-------------------------
Slide 10
© SKF Group
Nyinvesteringar i energiproduktion, EU-28, 2014
Slide 11
22 June, 2015
Vindkraften i energisystemet
Slide 12
22 June, 2015
Företagsinvesteringar i förnybar energi
Slide 13
Avknoppning av traditionell
energi med ”stranded assetts”
Slide 14
22 June, 2015
Framtiden är Förnybar, men
effekten varierar över tid..
Slide 15
Distruptive Innovation, ”Den saknade pusselbiten”
Did Tesla Just Kill Nuclear Power?
Kostadseffektiv lagring av energi kan komma att eliminera effektproblemet
med en hög andel förnybar energi i elsystemet.
Slide 16
22 June, 2015
Energilagring följer samma
kostnadstrend som solpaneler
Slide 17
22 June, 2015
Megatrender på energimarknaden
Global trends in energy market;
• Reduction of fossil fuels in energy mix, phasing out coal,
and oil – emission and climate change considerations
• Changing pattern in energy markets, todays consumers
are tomorrows ”prosumers”.
• Severe balance sheet issues for todays major energy
producers with ”stranded assett” investments.
• From centralized to distributed generation of energy
• Electrification of transport system – new requirements
• Large investments in cost efficient storage of energy,
to manage variations in renewable energy production.
• Smart energy systems – price by hour driven consumtion
• Long term energy system will be 100% renewable !!