1. No category

Commodity Research Desk
Bullion Insight
Monday, 10 November 2014
Gold: Daily Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Dec-14
1128.8
1148.1
1169.80
1183.9
1196.9
Sell at 1173-1175 TP 1160 SL 1185
MCX
Dec-14
25204
25546
25932
26134
26323
Sell at 26030-26050 TP 25750/25690 SL 26170
NCDEX
Nov-14
22455
22518
22675
22730
22860
Sell at 22860-22880 TP 22620 SL 23030
Weekly Outlook: In major developments last week, critical monthly Jobs report from US was published which showed moderately
lower additions for October. Employers added 214,000 jobs, lower than expectations of 230K-235K reading. Weak headline
number boosted gold which was already trading in highly oversold phase. However, overall move out of Jobs data was a bit
exaggerated as Sept month Jobs was revised higher whereas labour force participation increased. Additionally, USDX added weight
in the week by around 0.75% to 87.60 mark while during the week it even touched 88 mark as Euro and JPY moved to multi-year
lows. Also, Investment from institutional side still stays muted. Total known gold holdings have reduced to near 1,635 MT lately;
it’s lowest in more than five years whereas SPDR Gold holdings, the largest fund backed by the Gold saw its holding cut down to
727.15 MT a new low since Sep, 2008. If we check the PVOI data, some uncertainty is in place as on a day to day movement, Gold
Dec Comex Vol rose on two trading days, one on 5th Nov when Gold broke below the support of $1160 with rise in Vol though OI
down, a case that traders booked some profits. On Friday prices rose along with volumes and OI indicates some more upside
potential is left for gold before broader negative outlook once again develops its grip. Overall, rising USDX, weaker institutional
holdings, no major backup from physical side should continue to drive in pressure the commodity. Looking at PVOI data, we
recommend building short positions on higher levels next week. Gold MCX Dec: Sell at 26070-26090 TP 25450 SL 26450
REVIEW:



Gold prices once again saw pressure continuing for larger
part of the week wherein Dec contract at Comex slumped
to a fresh four year low near the $1130 per ounce mark.
However weaker to mixed US Jobs data and Gold’s
oversold nature aided good pullback to the metal on
Friday wherein it managed a negative weekly closing by
just 0.15% to $1170 per ounce.
In India, Gold MCX December contract slide lower to Rs
25165 level at one point of time while finally finished
weaker by 0.75% to Rs 25930 per 10 Gms.
OUTLOOK: Bullion were extending their Friday’s gains wherein
weaker US Employment numbers aid a good pullback in Bullion
which. As said in our weekly report, US Employers added at a
lesser than expected rate though if we look at the overall set of
data, we believe movement in Gold last Friday was a bit
exaggerated as on the economic side, September month Jobs data
was revised higher to 256K. This was appended with the fact that
labour force participation increase, further bolstering the positivity
about the health of US economy. We had seen the Chinese inflation
number today which didn’t provided any major boost though
weaker USDX is supporting moderate gains in the complex early
morning. We maintain bearish bias though advice selling only on
pullbacks for small profits as no major data is due in latter half.
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
Gold PVOI data Analysis: Gold Dec Comex prices on
Friday rose along with huge volumes and modest higher
OI, indicating some more upside potential is left for gold
before broader bearish outlook once again develops grip.
Intraday view remains down on pullback with Strict SL
Global Market Snapshot Today morning Asian equity
markets are trading on a mixed note with weaker Chinese PPI
number and mixed closing in US markets hurting the trading
direction post the subdued headline Non-farm payrolls data
which showed an Job addition by 214000 against
expectations of a number near 230000-235000. The USDX is
losing modest weight in early morning session hovering near
the 87.50 mark whereas other major currencies were
marginally in the green.
Mail us at [email protected]
E=
Bullion
Insight
Gold Price in Different Currency
Exchange
07-11-2014
COMEX (USD/oz)
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
Gold Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
Fund
06-11-2014 Change (%)
1170
1145
1145
742
946
1138
1335
7212
25932
1143
1145
1145
721
923
1111
1305
6975
25461
07-11-2014
SPDR Gold Trust (MT)
iShares Gold Trust
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
2.38%
0.04%
0.04%
2.90%
2.48%
2.41%
2.31%
3.41%
1.85%
06-11-2014 Change (%)
727.15
5157554
7828053
52302824
732.83
5157554
#N/A
52560196
-0.78%
0.00%
#N/A
-0.49%
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
07-11-2014
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
Registered Stocks
06-11-2014 Change (%)
8183036
7313726
8052834
7183525
1.62%
1.81%
869309
869309
0.00%
Periodical % Change in Gold Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
1Month
3 Month
1 Year
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
COMEX (USD/oz)
0.3
-3.9
-10.3
-8.9
1393
-15.7
1130
3.8
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
0.0
0.8
0.5
-5.2
-4.6
3.1
-12.1
-11.6
5.6
-12.7
-10.9
4.0
1379
1385
837
-17.0
-16.6
-11.7
1145
1142
713
0.0
1.1
3.5
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
0.5
0.5
0.4
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.9
4.8
7.5
0.1
1.6
6.3
1001
1215
1545
-6.0
-6.8
-14.0
858
1053
1259
9.7
7.5
5.5
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
0.4
0.2
4.4
-3.7
12.1
-9.2
12.5
-8.9
8548
31468
-16.0
-17.4
6931
25164
3.6
3.2
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
250
Comex Gold Spread (Dec-Feb)
M C X G o l d S p r e-F
a ed b()D e c
Rs/10 Gms
1.2
1
$/Ounce
0.8
0.6
200
150
100
0.4
50
0.2
0
13-Oct
3100
3000
0
20-Oct
27-Oct
3-Nov
10-Nov
16-O c t
22-O c t
28-O c t
3-N o v
MCX - NCDEX Gold Spread (Active Contract)
Rs/10 Gms
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
13-Oct
19-Oct
25-Oct
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
31-Oct
6-Nov
Mail us at [email protected]
E=
Bullion
Insight
Silver: Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Dec-14
15.01
15.34
15.71
15.96
16.19
Trading range 16.08-15.45
MCX
Dec-14
33420
34068
34796
35284
35732
Trading range 35700-34600
Weekly Outlook: As been our updates in prior weeks, we are not witnessing any special or separate factor which might be
impacting silver commodity which owing to its usage in both precious and industrial metal is simply following the move in
them. Additionally, silver is depicting further subdued pricing related developments as the commodity is simply being driven
by weaker gold. This week we saw Base metals remain mixed however silver whose 50-55% worth of consumption is
dependent on industrial usage still underperformed gold by a wide margin, thanks to its higher beta. Note that USDX, Equity
movement and largely weaker inflation data from major economies particularly EU and China is haunting the demand for
Bullion commodities including silver. Meanwhile looking at physical demand for silver, sales of American Eagle silver coins
sold by US Mint jumped 40% in October to the highest in 21 months, notwithstanding a huge fall in Comex price of the
commodity in the month. Data showed sales surged to 5.79 Mln ounces, the most since January 2013. Despite these
developments, they are unable to have any major impact on prices as Bullion commodities follow broader economic and
monetary policy related updates for price move rather than demand-supply variables. On the same perspective, we maintain
our bearish bias in silver commodity too, however traders are advised to wait for pullback to initiate shorts as on the PVOI
side, silver too is displaying the similar behavior as explained in Gold commodity above.
Silver MCX Dec: Sell at 35600-35700 TP 33800 SL 36200
REVIEW:


Silver re-iterated the broad directional trading from gold
commodity and did saw a good comeback on Friday rising
by around 2% at Comex. However for the whole week it
was still lower by 2.4% to $15.70 per ounce.
Locally, Silver Dec contract at MCX slipped lower to Rs
34800 per Kg mark, weaker by 2.8% during the week
Gold/Silver Ratio: Huge sell-off in Silver over and
above the fall in Gold lately has pressed the
Gold/Silver Ratio to fresh highs since 2009. Largely
seen moving in a range.
OUTLOOK: We are not seeing any major changes as per silver
commodity is concerned wherein over the short-term factors stay
in the similar line as we see in the case of gold. However, likewise
gold, PVOI numbers depict modest increase in Price, Vol and OI
together which may extend its gains towards the middle of the
week. Overall we hold a bearish bias though in intraday ranged
trade is seen in the commodity as markets also lack any major data
in the latter half of the day.
Economic Data Today:
Date Time
Country/Region
Event
Period
Surv(M)
11/10/14 07:00
CH
11/10/14 07:00
PPI YoY
Oct
-2.0%
-1.8%
CH
CPI YoY
Oct
1.6%
1.6%
11/10/14 15:00
UK
Lloyds Employment Confidence
Oct
--
10.0
11/10/14 15:00
EC
Sentix Investor Confidence
Nov
--
-13.7
11/10/14 20:30
US
Labor Market Conditions Index
Oct
--
11/10/14-11/17/14
IN
Exports YoY
Oct
--
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
Mail us at [email protected]
Prior
-2.7%
E=
Bullion
Insight
11/10/14-11/17/14
IN
Imports YoY
Oct
--
11/10/14-11/15/14
CH
New Yuan Loans
Oct
615.0B
857.2B
11/10/14-11/15/14
CH
Aggregate Financing RMB
Oct
880.0B
1050.0B
Silver Price in Different Currency
Exchange
07-11-2014 06-11-2014 Change (%)
COMEX (USD/oz)
London Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
Australia (AUD/oz)
15.7
1542.0
10.0
12.7
15.3
17.9
18.3
15.4
1528.0
9.7
12.5
15.0
17.6
18.3
1.95%
0.92%
2.10%
1.83%
1.60%
1.69%
0.00%
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
96.7
34796
94.2
34271
2.62%
1.53%
26.0%
Silver Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
Fund
07-11-2014
IShares Silver Trust
Sprott Phys Silver Trst
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
06-11-2014 Change (%)
344888288
49287872
62135972
637150976
343450784
49287872
#N/A
637150976
0.42%
0.00%
#N/A
0.00%
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
07-11-2014
06-11-2014 Change (%)
179876.38
113736.0
180247.42
114107.0
-0.21%
-0.33%
66140.39
66140.39
0.00%
Registered Stocks
Periodical % Change in Silver Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
1Month
3 Month
1 Year
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
COMEX (USD/oz)
0.8
-8.5
-20.6
-17.0
22
-28.6
15
5.3
London Fix (USD/oz)
0.9
-11.2
-23.2
-21.5
2205
-30.1
1528
0.9
London (GBP/oz)
-0.2
8.5
19.6
16.2
13
-26.0
10
4.6
Euro (EUR/oz)
-0.1
8.4
17.7
11.8
16
-21.3
12
4.3
0.9
-8.8
-19.4
-15.3
48573
-27.7
33491
4.9
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
3500
Silver COMEX (Dec-Mar)
0.06
3000
0.05
2500
0.04
2000
0.03
1500
0.02
1000
0.01
500
0.00
13-Oct
Silver MCX(Dec-Mar)
Rs./Kg
$/Ounce
0.07
19-Oct
25-Oct
31-Oct
6-Nov
0
13-Oct
17-Oct
21-Oct
25-Oct
29-Oct
Ratio Comex
74
Gold-Silver Ratio (Comex)
73
72
71
70
69
68
13-Oct
19-Oct
25-Oct
31-Oct
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
6-Nov
Mail us at [email protected]
2-Nov
E=
Bullion
Insight
Prepared By:
Analyst
Function
Aurobinda Prasad
Head of Research-Commodity & Currency
Aurobinda Prasad
Fundamental Analyst
Ramesh Chenchala
Technical Analyst
To unsubscribe please mail us at [email protected]
Disclaimer
The report contains the opinions of the author that are not to be construed as investment advice. The author, directors and o ther employees of Karvy, and its
affiliates, cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions
expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information which is believed to be accurate and no assurance can be given for the accuracy
of this information. There is risk of loss in trading in derivatives. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates cannot be held
responsible for any losses in trading.
Commodity derivatives trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of the underlying may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose their entire original
investment. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, or from,
Karvy Comtrade that you will profit or that losses can, or will be, limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. The
information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be r eliable. Information is in no way
guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management, or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purposes and not
to be construed as investment advice.
For a detailed disclaimer please go to following URLs:
http://www.karvycomtrade.com/v3/Disclaimer.aspx
http://www.karvycomtrade.com/v3/RiskDisclaimer.aspx
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
Mail us at [email protected]