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Commodity Research Desk
Bullion Insight
Monday, 19 January 2015
Gold: Daily Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Feb-15
1254.1
1264.9
1276.90
1284.9
1292.2
Buy at 1267-1265 TP 1283 SL 1253(Valid for 2-3
sessions)
MCX
Feb-15
27341
27489
27654
27786
27907
Buy at 27550-27530 TP 27650/27780 SL
27380(Valid for 2-3 sessions)
NCDEX
Jan-15
24744
24953
25162
25344
25526
Buy at 25040-25030 TP 25160/25240 SL
24900(Valid for 2-3 sessions)
Weekly Outlook: The week was largely stable during the initial half however, markets witnessed sudden spurt on Thursday.
Gold gained over 2.5% following the unexpected rate cut and currency adjustment announcement by the Swiss Central bank
while was higher over 5% for the week. . Swiss bank ended its 3 year old cap of 1.20 Franc per Euro which was seen as an
effort to decouple itself from the debt problems in Euro area while indirectly support Bullion. One critical aspect which helps
building a scenario for gold is the PVOI movement this week. Contract volumes for Feb and Apr at Comex increased while the
same was conjugated with higher aggregate OI making positive case. Onto the demand supply side, ETF investment gained
with holdings in SPDR Gold Trust rose around 3% to over 730 MT. In the coming week, there are no major economic cues to be
watched from the US economy however the broader markets would be more keen to track the developments on other side of
the Atlantic and Pacific. Amongst major cues we have the, ECB and BoJ monetary policy meeting and the Chinese GDP numbers
which could create good volatility amongst all asset classes including Gold. Post the strong 5% increase in the commodity in
one single week, we believe buying only on dips would be ideal for traders and investors alike.
Gold Feb MCX: Buy at 27400-27450 TP 28000 SL 27150
REVIEW: (Weekly)



Gold marked one of its best weekly performance in more
than 1 and ½ years jumping around 5% at the Comex
markets as safe haven buying emerged post surprising
move by Swiss Central Bank whereas falling equities and
subdued economic data too supported the yellow metal.
Gold commodity for February expiry contract at Comex
gained 5% closing near the $1,277 per ounce while during
the week also touched highs around the $1,282 its best
since September 2014.
Locally,
Rupee
appreciation
pushed
moderate
underperformance in Gold commodity while adjustment
with regards to past weekly performance also weighed.
Gold MCX Feb contract jumped 3.2% to Rs 27650 per Kg.
OUTLOOK: Bullion wherein especially Gold was little changed on
Monday morning as traders assessed the strong Friday and overall
weekly gains for the commodity. Bullion blasted after the
surprising Swiss bank move and largely subdued equity markets.
While we don’t have any major economic data today and also select
US commodity and others asset classes are shut amidst Martin
Luther Jr. King’s holiday; probably overall movement may remain
shallow. We continue to hold bullish bias in gold commodity and
advice traders look for buying on small dips today.
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
With markets lack economic data in intraday, US Dollar
could play major mover today
Global Market Analysis: US equity markets finished on a
positive note on Friday with gains of more than 1% after its
consumer confidence data showed reading jumped to a 11
year high. Asian equity markets are trading on mixed to
positive note however Chinese equities were losing around
6% as per last quote following the suspension of 3 biggest
brokers. China suspended three of the nation’s biggest
brokerages from adding margin-finance and securities
lending accounts following rule violations. In currencies, US
dollar index was moderately higher adding towards 92.66
mark whereas Euro continued to have a volatile to weaker
session and traded near the 1.1550 mark.
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Bullion
Insight
Gold Price in Different Currency
Exchange
16-01-2015
Gold Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
Fund
15-01-2015 Change (%)
COMEX (USD/oz)
1277
1265
0.96%
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
1258
1258
1235
1235
1.86%
1.86%
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
845
1107
1099
1535
7944
832
1085
1059
1510
7810
1.64%
2.00%
3.86%
1.62%
1.72%
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
27654
27492
0.59%
16-01-2015
SPDR Gold Trust (MT)
iShares Gold Trust
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
15-01-2015 Change (%)
730.89
5260381
#N/A
52144380
717.15
5260381
8192344.5
51702596
1.92%
0.00%
#N/A
0.85%
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
16-01-2015
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
Registered Stocks
15-01-2015 Change (%)
7948531
7178044
7948563
7178076
0.00%
0.00%
770487
770487
0.00%
Periodical % Change in Gold Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
COMEX (USD/oz)
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
1Month
-0.1
1.9
1.5
0.3
0.3
-0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
3 Month
6.7
4.9
6.2
-9.2
-11.4
6.2
-9.1
-6.1
2.5
1 Year
3.0
1.4
3.2
-8.5
-11.8
6.1
-7.8
-3.7
1.5
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
-2.6
-3.0
-1.8
-8.8
-12.1
6.4
-7.7
2.8
-1.2
1393
1379
1385
847
1113
1266
1545
8548
31468
-8.4
-8.8
-7.8
-0.5
-0.8
-12.5
-1.2
-7.3
-12.1
1130
1145
1142
713
908
921
1296
6931
25164
12.9
9.9
11.9
18.2
21.6
20.3
17.9
14.4
9.9
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
1.2
300
Comex Gold Spread (Feb-Apr)
Rs/10 Gms
0.8
e
c
n
u0.6
O
/
$
0.4
2700
2650
200
150
100
50
0.2
0
22-Dec
M C X G o l d S p r e a -A
d p( F
r )e b
250
1
29-Dec
5-Jan
12-Jan
19-Jan
0
22-D e c
28-D e c
3-J a n
9-J a n
MCX - NCDEX Gold Spread (Active Contract)
2600
Rs/10 Gms
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
22-Dec
28-Dec
3-Jan
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
9-Jan
15-Jan
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15-J a n
E=
Bullion
Insight
Silver: Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Mar-15
16.90
17.30
17.75
18.02
18.26
Buy at 17.37-17.35 TP 17.75 SL 17.08(Valid for
2-3 sessions)
MCX
Mar-15
37562
38267
39061
39572
40041
Buy at 38580-38550 TP 39060/39200 SL
38200(Valid for 2-3 sessions)
Weekly Outlook: The whitish precious metal after the strong performance last week is likely to extend its gains in current
week as well with the broader macro economic factors over currency, monetary policy meetings and economic data variables
supporting a positive case for Bullion. Silver as a commodity gets demand related cues from precious metal as well as
industrial metals as nearly half of its consumption goes into industrial segment thus in the coming week we believe the
Chinese numbers may create good volatility for silver. Market estimates largely call for a Q4, 2014 GDP improvement in the
range of 7.2% to 7.3%, nearly similar to prior quarter on a YoY perspective. However, looking at the recent set of subdued
economic cues from China, it would not be a complete surprise to see a reading even near 7%. However if that happens, we
might see some pressure being coming over industrial metals and also on silver which can cap any major positive movement
in the commodity. On that note, while we maintain buying view in silver commodity too, however trader are advised to prefer
Gold as an investment over silver in the coming week. Also last week we advised Gold/Silver Ratio selling wherein the huge
outperformance of Silver over Gold should have had generated profits for traders taking that strategy. In the next week
though, we would better wait for some more clarity over Chinese data and then look into strategy related trade for the two.
Silver Mar MCX: Buy at 38100-38200 TP 39200/39800 SL 37500
REVIEW: (Weekly)


Silver futures for March expiry contract too advanced
during the week with overall performance remaining inline with movement in the big brother Gold.
Silver owing to its high beat nature managed an even better
performance rising by over 8% in the week at Comex to
move towards $17.75 per ounce.
Gold/Silver ratio: We held cautious view as it stayed
near the critical support area. Hold a similar view as
we await confirmation before building long-short
positions in Bullion.
OUTLOOK: Silver commodity after huge gains last week was
flattish to modestly weaker today morning. The commodity was
moderately underperforming Gold as probably pressure on Chinese
equities front was putting Silver commodity lower. While broad
day’s trend stays positive, we hold buying view in the commodity
on dips for small target today. Risk factor for the day could be losses
extending in base metals in case Chinese data or cues weight.
Economic Data Today:
Date Time
Country/Region
Event
Period
Surv(M)
01/19/15 10:00
JN
Industrial Production MoM
Nov F
--
-0.6%
01/19/15 10:00
JN
Industrial Production YoY
Nov F
--
-3.8%
01/19/15 10:00
JN
Capacity Utilization MoM
Nov
--
0.7%
01/19/15 10:30
JN
Consumer Confidence Index
Dec
38.5
37.7
01/19/15 11:00
JN
Nationwide Dept Sales YoY
Dec
--
-1.0%
01/19/15 14:30
EC
ECB Current Account SA
Nov
--
20.5B
01/19/15 14:30
EC
Current Account NSA
Nov
--
30.6B
01/19/15 15:30
EC
Construction Output MoM
Nov
--
1.3%
01/19/15 15:30
EC
Construction Output YoY
Nov
--
1.4%
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
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Prior
E=
Bullion
Insight
Silver Price in Different Currency
Exchange
16-01-2015 15-01-2015 Change (%)
Silver Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
COMEX (USD/oz)
London Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
Australia (AUD/oz)
17.7
1692.0
11.8
15.4
15.3
21.3
21.6
17.1
1712.0
11.2
14.6
14.2
20.3
21.6
3.90%
-1.17%
5.39%
5.67%
7.39%
5.26%
0.00%
IShares Silver Trust
Sprott Phys Silver Trst
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
110.4
39061
104.8
37922
5.39%
3.00%
Fund
16-01-2015
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
15-01-2015 Change (%)
325011040
49287872
325011040
49287872
#N/A
#N/A
67743328
624375808
0.00%
0.00%
#N/A
#N/A
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
Registered Stocks
16-01-2015
15-01-2015 Change (%)
174430.72
108117.5
173914.11
108220.0
0.30%
-0.09%
66313.25
65694.09
0.94%
Periodical % Change in Silver Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
COMEX (USD/oz)
London Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
1Month
3 Month
1 Year
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
3.9
12.9
1.7
-14.4
22
-20.0
14
25.8
-1.2
3.9
-3.1
-18.3
2205
-23.3
1528
10.7
1.0
-11.7
-7.4
5.2
13
-12.5
9
25.1
0.9
-13.8
-10.7
1.4
16
-5.4
12
30.7
-0.4
5.3
1.3
-13.4
48343
-19.5
32626
19.3
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
800
0.09
Silver COMEX (Mar-May)
0.08
600
0.06
Rs./Kg
$/Ounce
0.07
0.05
0.04
0.03
500
400
300
200
0.02
100
0.01
0.00
22-Dec
Silver MCX (Mar-May)
700
28-Dec
3-Jan
9-Jan
15-Jan
0
22-Dec 26-Dec 30-Dec
3-Jan
7-Jan
11-Jan 15-Jan 19-Jan
Prepared By:
Analyst
Function
Aurobinda Prasad
Head of Research-Commodity & Currency
Aurobinda Prasad
Fundamental Analyst
Ramesh Chenchala
Technical Analyst
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