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Commodity Research Desk
Gold silver
Bullion Insight
Friday, 23 January 2015
Gold: Daily Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Feb-15
1277.3
1288.3
1300.70
1309.5
1317.5
Trading range 1308-1285
MCX
Feb-15
27677
27847
28036
28204
28356
Trading range 28770-28260
NCDEX
Jan-15
25031
25253
25475
25704
25933
Trading range 25250-25750
Weekly Outlook: The week was largely stable during the initial half however, markets witnessed sudden spurt on Thursday.
Gold gained over 2.5% following the unexpected rate cut and currency adjustment announcement by the Swiss Central bank
while was higher over 5% for the week. . Swiss bank ended its 3 year old cap of 1.20 Franc per Euro which was seen as an
effort to decouple itself from the debt problems in Euro area while indirectly support Bullion. One critical aspect which helps
building a scenario for gold is the PVOI movement this week. Contract volumes for Feb and Apr at Comex increased while the
same was conjugated with higher aggregate OI making positive case. Onto the demand supply side, ETF investment gained
with holdings in SPDR Gold Trust rose around 3% to over 730 MT. In the coming week, there are no major economic cues to be
watched from the US economy however the broader markets would be more keen to track the developments on other side of
the Atlantic and Pacific. Amongst major cues we have the, ECB and BoJ monetary policy meeting and the Chinese GDP numbers
which could create good volatility amongst all asset classes including Gold. Post the strong 5% increase in the commodity in
one single week, we believe buying only on dips would be ideal for traders and investors alike.
Gold Feb MCX: Buy at 27400-27450 TP 28000 SL 27150
REVIEW:


Gold Dollar Relation not working currently
Gold was highly volatile yesterday; thanks to the ECB
meeting while finally ended the day little changed at
Comex to $1300, higher 0.5% on a day to day comparison.
Gold commodity for Feb expiry at MCX too traded in a
similar fashion with commodity adding 0.2% by closing to
Rs 28035 per 10 Gms.
OUTLOOK: We had advised selling and later buying momentum in
Bullion wherein we had anticipated gold commodity take support
near the $1275 mark, while yesterday low was $1279. However by
end of day Gold added marginal weight and currently is largely flat
near the $1300 mark. While the conventional Dollar-Gold relation
is not working currently wherein Gold added on account of ECB
stimulus announcement; overall move continues to be in a big
range. With UDSDX currently trading higher and equities too
trading positive, intraday gains in the commodity may remain
capped wherein we suggest traders to look for momentary trades
in the commodity wherein which our calls would be purely
dependent on Technical factors during the day.
Date/Time
01/23/15 14:30
01/23/15 20:15
Region
EC
US
Event
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
Global Market Analysis: It was all about ECB meeting and
comments from the ECB officials which drove good volatility
in the markets across asset classes yesterday. Mario Draghi
committed to a quantitative easing program worth at least
1.1 Trillion Euros to counter the threat of a deflationary
which pushed Euro lower while US Dollar index splurged
over a percent moving over the fresh multi year highs of 94.
Euro currency slipped and currently trading at 1.1365 level,
a sharp cut of over 2% last day. Economic Data: Man PMI
numbers from Euro area and US watched
Period
Jan P
Jan P
Survey
51.7
54.0
Prior
51.4
53.9
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Gold Price in Different Currency
Exchange
22-01-2015 21-01-2015 Change (%)
COMEX (USD/oz)
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
1301
1287
1287
1294
1298
1298
0.54%
-0.85%
-0.85%
868
1146
1134
1613
8079
28036
854
1114
1112
1596
8032
27977
1.62%
2.87%
1.97%
1.09%
0.59%
0.21%
Gold Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
Fund
22-01-2015
SPDR Gold Trust (MT)
iShares Gold Trust
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
21-01-2015 Change (%)
740.45
5368750
8286544
#N/A
740.45
5389069
8239629.5
52612400
0.00%
-0.38%
0.57%
#N/A
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
22-01-2015
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
Registered Stocks
21-01-2015 Change (%)
7963256
7192769
7948434
7177947
0.19%
0.21%
770487
770487
0.00%
Periodical % Change in Gold Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
COMEX (USD/oz)
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
1Month
-0.2
-0.9
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.2
3 Month
10.2
7.7
8.4
-12.3
-15.4
2.9
-14.9
-9.4
5.4
1 Year
5.6
3.2
4.2
-11.1
-14.7
4.0
-13.9
-6.7
2.0
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
-0.5
-1.5
-1.1
-11.5
-15.2
4.2
-12.9
0.1
0.5
1393
1379
1385
870
1150
1266
1618
8548
31468
-6.8
-6.7
-6.4
-0.6
-0.7
-10.8
-0.7
-5.5
-10.9
1130
1145
1142
713
911
921
1296
6931
25164
14.8
12.5
13.5
21.2
25.5
22.7
24.0
16.6
11.4
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
1.2
300
Comex Gold Spread (Feb-Apr)
Rs/10 Gms
0.8
e
c
n
u0.6
O
/
$
0.4
2700
2650
200
150
100
50
0.2
0
24-Dec
M C X G o l d S p r e a -A
d p( F
r )e b
250
1
31-Dec
7-Jan
14-Jan
21-Jan
0
24-D e c
30-D e c
5-J a n
11-J a n
17-J a n
MCX - NCDEX Gold Spread (Active Contract)
2600
Rs/10 Gms
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
24-Dec
30-Dec
5-Jan
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
11-Jan
17-Jan
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Silver: Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Mar-15
17.86
18.10
18.36
18.54
18.70
Trading range 18.50- 17.88
MCX
Mar-15
39280
39657
40079
40421
40732
Trading range 40430-39400
Weekly Outlook: The whitish precious metal after the strong performance last week is likely to extend its gains in current
week as well with the broader macro economic factors over currency, monetary policy meetings and economic data variables
supporting a positive case for Bullion. Silver as a commodity gets demand related cues from precious metal as well as
industrial metals as nearly half of its consumption goes into industrial segment thus in the coming week we believe the
Chinese numbers may create good volatility for silver. Market estimates largely call for a Q4, 2014 GDP improvement in the
range of 7.2% to 7.3%, nearly similar to prior quarter on a YoY perspective. However, looking at the recent set of subdued
economic cues from China, it would not be a complete surprise to see a reading even near 7%. However if that happens, we
might see some pressure being coming over industrial metals and also on silver which can cap any major positive movement
in the commodity. On that note, while we maintain buying view in silver commodity too, however trader are advised to prefer
Gold as an investment over silver in the coming week. Also last week we advised Gold/Silver Ratio selling wherein the huge
outperformance of Silver over Gold should have had generated profits for traders taking that strategy. In the next week
though, we would better wait for some more clarity over Chinese data and then look into strategy related trade for the two.
Silver Mar MCX: Buy at 38100-38200 TP 39200/39800 SL 37500
REVIEW:


Silver continued to outperform with the commodity rising
around 1.3% to $ 18.35 per ounce at Comex markets
Silver MCX also closed higher though gains were less due to
Rupee appreciation. Silver MCX added 0.4% to Rs 40080
per Kg
Gold/Silver Ratio: We advice selling the ratio on
pullback while that should have worked well with
traders initiating the same as Silver by end gained. For
today, we have hold view in strategy too.
OUTLOOK: We had a Sell – Buy strategy for Silver as well which
worked fine however for the day; mixed cues from equities,
currencies and also base metals are keeping us on a cautionary note
in silver commodity as well. We also advice, Selling the ratio on
pullback while that should have worked well with traders initiating
the strategy as Silver by end gained. For today, we have hold view in
strategy too.
Economic Data Today:
Date Time
Country/Region
Event
Period
01/23/15 07:15
CH
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Jan P
49.5
49.6
01/23/15 14:00
GE
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
Jan P
51.6
51.2
01/23/15 14:00
GE
Markit Germany Services PMI
Jan P
52.4
52.1
01/23/15 14:00
GE
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI
Jan P
52.3
52.0
01/23/15 14:30
EC
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Jan P
51.0
50.6
01/23/15 14:30
EC
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Jan P
52.0
51.6
01/23/15 14:30
EC
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Jan P
51.7
51.4
01/23/15 15:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Dec
-0.6%
1.7%
01/23/15 15:00
UK
Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM
Dec
-0.6%
1.6%
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
Surv(M)
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Prior
E=
Bullion
Insight
01/23/15 19:00
US
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
Dec
--
0.7
01/23/15 20:15
US
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Jan P
54.0
53.9
01/23/15 20:30
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
Dec
2.4%
-6.1%
01/23/15 20:30
US
Existing Home Sales
Dec
5.05M
4.93M
Silver Price in Different Currency
Exchange
22-01-2015 21-01-2015 Change (%)
Silver Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
COMEX (USD/oz)
London Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
Australia (AUD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
IShares Silver Trust
Sprott Phys Silver Trst
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
18.3
1808.0
12.2
16.1
16.0
22.7
22.8
113.7
40079
18.2
1822.0
12.0
15.6
15.6
22.4
22.8
112.6
39923
Fund
0.92%
-0.77%
1.97%
3.29%
2.49%
1.47%
0.00%
1.00%
0.39%
22-01-2015
21-01-2015 Change (%)
319314720
49287872
70651184
626158888
318261632
49287872
70555872
626158888
0.33%
0.00%
0.14%
0.00%
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
22-01-2015
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
Registered Stocks
21-01-2015 Change (%)
176161.97
109548.0
175636.05
109172.0
0.30%
0.34%
66613.98
66464.1
0.23%
Periodical % Change in Silver Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
COMEX (USD/oz)
1Month
0.9
London Fix (USD/oz)
3 Month
17.2
1 Year
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
6.5
-12.5
22
-17.3
14
30.1
-0.8
12.4
4.1
-13.1
2205
-18.0
1528
18.3
London (GBP/oz)
0.0
-16.8
-12.2
0.5
13
-8.3
9
31.2
Euro (EUR/oz)
0.1
-19.7
-15.7
-3.6
16
-0.7
12
38.1
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
0.4
10.9
4.9
-11.1
48343
-17.1
32626
22.8
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
800
Silver COMEX (Mar-May)
0.05
0.04
600
0.03
Rs./Kg
$/Ounce
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
500
400
300
200
0.01
100
0.01
0.00
24-Dec
Silver MCX (Mar-May)
700
30-Dec
5-Jan
11-Jan
17-Jan
23-Jan
0
24-Dec 28-Dec
1-Jan
5-Jan
9-Jan
13-Jan 17-Jan 21-Jan
Prepared By:
Analyst
Function
Aurobinda Prasad
Head of Research-Commodity & Currency
Aurobinda Prasad
Fundamental Analyst
Ramesh Chenchala
Technical Analyst
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