Commodity Research Desk
Bullion Insight
Monday, 24 November 2014
Gold: Daily Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Feb-15
1182.9
1190.2
1198.40
1206.1
1213.0
Sell at 1201-1203 TP 1188 SL 1213
MCX
Feb-15
26613
26688
26771
26893
27002
Sell at 26850-26860 TP 26570 SL 27000
NCDEX
Jan-15
23810
23880
23933
24050
24130
Sell at 24030-24040 TP 23900/23810 SL 24130
Weekly Outlook: Bullion saw good volatility last week with Chinese rate cut aiding recovery, especially in the latter half. We saw
FED minutes wherein the release showed policy makers support towards winding down the bond purchase program. Also FED
expects limited effect of subdued economic activity in other parts of the globe onto the US. Gold positivity was backed by Chinese
cues as PBOC cut interest rates in order to revive the slowing economy. Sudden cut boosted major non-agri commodities including
Bullion, while we believe this outperformance could continue in the initial half next week. However if we look at other factors, US
Dollar extended gains and moved firmly above 88 mark. It may see its positive momentum continuing as we see number of
economic variables from US next week like revised GDP, Consumer Confidence, Personal Income/Spending and housing data
amongst others with most of the indicators looking bullish. Separately from the EU, ECB President Draghi’s statement that the
inflation number for the economy has to be increased quickly might add pressure on Euro currency. Into the local space, latest
import numbers showed heavy increase in Gold imports amidst festival season have raised concerns that government may go for
some more tightening on Gold imports in coming months. While the same is only a speculation at this stage, any major update over
the same from government could increase volatility in gold in short-term. Looking at the positive performance of equities, bullish
expectations over economic data in the US and largely positive USDX we believe, Gold should continue to be under pressure in
coming sessions. Recommend selling from higher levels next week. Gold MCX Dec: Sell at 26720-26750 TP 26200/26040 SL 27150
REVIEW: (Weekly Review)


Bullion saw high volatility last week with Gold taking clues
from better US economic data, rising USDX, Fed Minutes
and lastly surprisingly Chinese Interest rate cut. We saw
Bullion rising, falling and later rising with final closing
seen near $1200 per ounce, higher by 1% for the week.
In India, though Gold Dec underperformed and fell 0.3%
during the week to Rs 26390 per 10 gms though the, to be
active Feb contract gained 0.4% to Rs 26770.
OUTLOOK: We are seeing see no major change in gold commodity
on Monday while we believe that the gains in the sector could be
restricted. As discussed earlier, $1207 remains a major resistance
wherein we could continue to take sell recommendation on the
commodity. However, we may have a problem in setting up the day
trend especially after China reduced its interest rate. In this case,
we are suggesting sell for today with a minimum targets however,
by any means if gold breaches $1207 then possibly traders should
be ready to await for some more gains towards $1215. Though, we
would still be suggesting making dollar cost averaging and
maintaining selling stance in the commodity.
Date/Time
Region
Event
11/24/14 14:30
GE
IFO Business Climate
11/24/14 20:15
US
Markit US Composite PMI
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
Gold Comex stays below critical resistance zone
Global Market Snapshot: Let us begin the week with good
positive euphoria. This morning Asian markets are trading on
a robust note while major global currencies are flat. Coming
to commodities, we are seeing a mixed to steady performance
in most of the asset classes. We have a very few economic
data to notice today in the form of IFO numbers from
Germany and from the US Markit PMI followed by the Dallas
Fed manufacturing activity.
Period
Survey
Prior
Nov
103.0
103.2
Nov P
-57.2
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Bullion
Insight
Gold Price in Different Currency
Exchange
21-11-2014
COMEX (USD/oz)
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
Gold Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
Fund
20-11-2014 Change (%)
1198
1193
1193
767
970
1165
1350
7358
26391
1191
1194
1194
761
952
1144
1350
7310
26463
0.57%
-0.06%
-0.06%
0.89%
1.85%
1.84%
0.01%
0.67%
-0.27%
21-11-2014
20-11-2014 Change (%)
SPDR Gold Trust (MT)
iShares Gold Trust
720.91
5157554
720.91
5157553.5
0.00%
0.00%
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
7844002.5
#N/A
7814354.5
51913040
0.38%
#N/A
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
21-11-2014
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
Registered Stocks
20-11-2014 Change (%)
7961273
7092362
8124597
7255687
-2.01%
-2.25%
868911
868911
0.00%
Periodical % Change in Gold Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
COMEX (USD/oz)
London AM Fix (USD/oz)
London PM Fix (USD/oz)
1Month
3 Month
1 Year
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
0.2
-0.1
1.2
-2.5
-4.7
-3.7
-6.1
-6.8
-5.6
-7.1
-7.6
-6.5
1393
1379
1385
-13.8
-13.5
-13.1
1130
1145
1142
6.2
4.3
5.4
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
-0.1
0.3
0.0
-2.2
-0.8
837
1001
1215
-8.3
-3.2
-4.0
713
858
1053
7.5
12.9
10.7
Canada (CAD/oz)
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
0.1
0.0
-0.3
2.5
2.3
-4.0
4.0
6.8
-5.1
4.1
9.6
-3.5
1545
8548
31468
-12.7
-13.9
-16.1
1259
6931
25164
7.1
6.2
4.9
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
400
Comex Gold Spread (Dec-Feb)
1
$/Ounce
0.8
0.6
0.4
3400
300
250
200
150
100
0.2
0
27-Oct
M C X G o l d S p r e a-Fde b
(D
) ec
350
Rs/10 Gms
1.2
50
0
3-Nov
10-Nov
17-Nov
24-Nov
29-O c t
4-N o v
10-N o v
16-N o v
MCX - NCDEX Gold Spread (Active Contract)
Rs/10 Gms
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
27-Oct
2-Nov
8-Nov
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
14-Nov
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Insight
Silver: Technical Recommendations
Exchange
Contract
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
Recommendation
COMEX
Mar-15
16.09
16.26
16.46
16.63
16.79
Sell at 16.50-16.53 TP 16.30/16.20 SL 16.70
MCX
Mar-15
36460
36734
37038
37342
37616
Sell at 37200-37230 TP 36570/36300 SL
37520
Weekly Outlook: Silver registered good volatility alongside gold last week however its inherent weakness in the commodity
pushed into underperformance against the yellow metal. Overall the broader factors over expected weakness in Euro currency
and positive momentum in US economic cues should continue to weigh on silver commodity as well, we believe recent updates
over demand-supply from GFMS might be acting additional negativity over the commodity despite we saw good gains in base
metals this week. Demand for silver will post a 7% percent decline in 2014 because of a slower pace of buying by jewellers and
industrial fabricators in the first three quarters of the year, Thomson Reuters GFMS said lately. The agency added it expected
total physical demand, which includes jewellery, coins and bars, silverware and industrial fabrication, to fall 6.7% to 1,004.5
Mln ounce in 2014 from a record high of 1,077 Mln ounce last year. Silver industrial demand is forecast to drop 1.8% while fall
in also expected in Jewellery consumption by over 4% as lower gold is getting more buyers, with its prices too hovering
around multi-year lows. We feel, this might be the major reason behind lower performance for silver commodity and could
lead to further weaker growth in the short-term. Recommend selling the commodity on pullbacks next week.
Silver MCX Dec: Sell at 36500-36600 TP 35400/34800 SL 37200
REVIEW: (Weekly Review)


Silver too recorded similar mercurial performance
however the inherent weakness in the commodity pushed
into underperformance against gold last week
Silver Dec contract at Comex closed at $16.40 per ounce,
higher by 0.5% while Indian MCX Silver Dec contract shut
with gains of just 0.15% to Rs 36080 per Kg.
Silver Comex March too, likewise Gold stays weaker
OUTLOOK: No major changes in fundamental factors over silver
with recent GFMS developments too once again call for weaker
demand scenario, mainly over jewellery and industrial segment. As
seen in Gold, we recommend selling the commodity on pullbacks
with $1640 per ounce mark kept as initial stoploss. Only if we see
drastic changes in the prices, we might see some more gains over
$17. We are constricting our views to remain short unless any fresh
bullish fundamentals or the turnaround in technical chart pattern
forms. At the local market the Indian rupee is expected to
appreciate a tad and that would be further supportive for local
silver to trade slightly down.
Economic Data Today:
Date Time
Country/Region
Event
Period
Surv(M)
11/24/14 14:30
GE
11/24/14 14:30
IFO Business Climate
Nov
103.0
103.2
GE
IFO Current Assessment
Nov
107.7
108.4
11/24/14 14:30
GE
IFO Expectations
Nov
98.6
98.3
11/24/14 19:00
US
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
Oct
--
0.5
11/24/14 20:15
US
Markit US Services PMI
Nov P
57.3
57.1
11/24/14 20:15
US
Markit US Composite PMI
Nov P
--
57.2
11/24/14 21:00
US
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
Nov
8.0
10.5
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
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Prior
E=
Bullion
Insight
Silver Price in Different Currency
Exchange
21-11-2014 20-11-2014 Change (%)
Silver Institutional Holdings (TOZ)
COMEX (USD/oz)
London Fix (USD/oz)
London (GBP/oz)
Euro (EUR/oz)
Switzerland (CHF/oz)
Canada (CAD/oz)
Australia (AUD/oz)
16.4
1630.0
10.5
13.3
15.9
18.5
19.0
16.1
1620.0
10.4
13.0
15.6
18.4
19.0
1.60%
0.62%
1.28%
2.26%
2.22%
0.35%
0.00%
IShares Silver Trust
Sprott Phys Silver Trst
ETF Securities Ltd
Total Known Holdings
China(CNY/oz)
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
100.7
36080
99.7
35819
1.02%
0.73%
Fund
21-11-2014
20-11-2014 Change (%)
349296160
49287872
61933364
642935808
349296160
49287872
61933364
642935808
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Comex Inventory (TOZ)
Stocks
Total Stocks
Eligible Stocks
Registered Stocks
21-11-2014
20-11-2014 Change (%)
177637.42
112738.0
177699.02
112878.3
-0.03%
-0.12%
64899.39
64820.75
0.12%
Periodical % Change in Silver Prices (International Markets)
Exchange
1 Day
COMEX (USD/oz)
1Month
3 Month
1 Year
52 Wk High High-CMP % 52 Wk Low CMP-Low %
-0.1
-4.7
-15.5
-15.5
22
-26.1
15
8.9
London Fix (USD/oz)
0.6
-6.1
-16.0
-15.6
2205
-26.1
1528
6.7
London (GBP/oz)
0.1
1.9
11.3
10.0
13
-21.2
10
10.0
Euro (EUR/oz)
0.2
2.5
10.7
7.5
16
-17.8
12
8.8
Mumbai (INR/10gm)
0.7
-5.6
-14.0
-11.6
48343
-25.4
33491
7.7
Contract Spread (Contango-Backwardation)
0.07
3500
Silver COMEX (Dec-Mar)
2500
2000
0.04
Rs./Kg
$/Ounce
0.05
1500
1000
0.03
500
0.02
0
0.01
0.00
27-Oct
Silver MCX(Dec-Mar)
3000
0.06
-500 27-Oct
2-Nov
8-Nov
14-Nov
20-Nov
31-Oct
4-Nov
8-Nov
12-Nov
-1000
Ratio Comex
76
Gold-Silver Ratio (Comex)
75
74
73
72
71
70
27-Oct
2-Nov
8-Nov
14-Nov
Gold & Silver: A Comprehensive Daily
20-Nov
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E=
Bullion
Insight
Prepared By:
Analyst
Function
Aurobinda Prasad
Head of Research-Commodity & Currency
Aurobinda Prasad
Fundamental Analyst
Ramesh Chenchala
Technical Analyst
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