1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. oil

November 13, 2014
Blake Fernandez504.582.2528
[email protected]
WEEKLY REFINING INDICATORS REPORT
Leonard Raymond504.582.2884
[email protected]
WEEK ENDING 11/07/2014
Quick Take: Where is the demand??? With dramatically lower
prices one would think a consumer response would be at hand
but Y/Y trailing 4-wk average gasoline demand -0.8% and
distillate -7.0%. Based on domestic vehicle buying patterns, we
suspect demand growth is on the horizon with SUV sales +9%
Y/Y (see table below). Refinery utilization has begun its ascent
(+1.7%) as we move out of turnaround season. The bulk of the
increased runs appears to have come from the Gulf Coast
which incidentally was responsible for a large portion of the
crude draw. Note: Cushing inventories actually increased
1.7MMBbls moving up to 22.5MMBbls. Finally, no signs of a
slowdown in US production with lower-48 +64MBbl/d wk/wk.
Days of Crude Demand Cover
27x
25x
23x
21x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Gasoline Demand Cover
29x
27x
25x
23x
•
•
•
•
Trailing 4-week average crude throughput is 2.0% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate November demand cover
of 24.6 days (November ‘13 = 24.9 days, November 09-13
avg. = 24.5).
Trailing 4-week average gasoline demand is 0.8% below
the year-ago comp. We estimate November demand cover
of 22.7 days (November ‘13 = 23.5 days, November 09 -13
avg. = 23.7).
Trailing 4-week average distillate demand is 7.0% below
the year-ago comp. We estimate November demand cover
of 31.8 days (November ‘13 = 28.9 days, November 09-13
avg. = 35.9).
Trailing 4-week average total product demand is 1.0%
above the year-ago comp.
We estimate November
demand cover of 57.7 days (November ‘13 = 54.7 days,
November 09-13 avg. = 57.0).
21x
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
5-yr Avg.
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Distillate Demand Cover
55x
48x
41x
34x
27x
20x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
2014
Days of Total Product Demand Cover
65x
60x
55x
50x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
2013
Sep
Nov
2014
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Howard Weil is a division of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group, and represents Scotiabank’s energy equities
business in the United States. All relevant disclosures and certifications begin on Page 12 of this report.
Howard Weil | Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.  1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500  New Orleans, LA 70163
Page 1 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
DOE Inventories & Imports (000s)
TOTAL U.S.
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
Inventories
Crude
378,470
388,088
-2%
359,266
5%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock) 203,565
209,198
-3%
206,962
-2%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
116,850
117,336
0%
138,621
-16%
17,771
99,079
19,207
98,129
-7%
1%
37,601
101,020
-53%
-2%
6,877
7,844
-12%
8,160
-16%
501
446
12%
620
-19%
86
130
-34%
135
-36%
15,752
15,411
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
Imports
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
Crude Throughput
Refinery Utilization
90.1%
88.7%
2%
2%
14,560
84.7%
8%
6%
REGIONAL INVENTORY
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
PADD 1 (Northeast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
12,666
11,205
13%
11,074
14%
50,337
52,813
-5%
51,223
-2%
13,198
16,273
-19%
15,556
40,058
37,188
8%
54,994
-27%
9,284
30,774
12,258
24,930
-24%
23%
29,401
25,593
-68%
20%
99,043
43,638
108,207
48,493
-8%
-10%
95,342
47,498
-8%
PADD 2 (Midwest)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
4%
4,917
5,893
-17%
5,631
23,064
25,135
-8%
25,995
192,649
75,812
196,118
72,711
-2%
4%
179,815
72,927
11,550
9,707
19%
11,626
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
38,297
38,487
0%
42,153
-9%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
21,150
20,385
4%
17,652
20%
6,947
3,569
7,126
3,499
-3%
6,530
3,106
15%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
52,963
26,833
52,173
28,055
55,383
28,784
-4%
-4%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
11,862
13,026
-9%
12,372
-4%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
-11%
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
7%
4%
PADD 4 (Rockies)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
2%
6%
PADD 5 (West Coast)
November 13, 2014
2%
-7%
Page 2 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Demand vs. Supply Charts
US Crude Demand (000 Bbl/d)
US Crude Stocks (000 Bbls)
17,000
400,000
15,750
350,000
14,500
13,250
300,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
Jul
'13
Sep
'14
Nov
5-yr Avg
U.S. Gasoline Stocks (000 Bbls)
U.S. Gasoline Demand (000 Bbl/d)
250,000
9,850
9,375
225,000
8,900
200,000
8,425
175,000
7,950
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
'13
'14
Sep
Jan
Nov
Mar
May
Jul
'13
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Demand (000 Bbl/d)
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Stocks (000 Bbls)
4,450
180,000
160,000
4,000
140,000
3,550
120,000
3,100
100,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
'13
US Total Product Demand (000 Bbl/d)
20,750
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Total Product Stocks (000 Bbls)
1,200,000
1,150,000
19,500
1,100,000
18,250
1,050,000
17,000
1,000,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
November 13, 2014
Jul
'14
Sep
5-yr Avg
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Page 3 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Refinery Utilization
US Total Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD I Refinery Utilization (%)
95
100.0
90
90.0
85
80.0
80
70.0
75
60.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
'13
Jun
Jul
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
5-yr Avg
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD III Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD II Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Jan Feb
Nov Dec
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD V Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD IV Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
November 13, 2014
Aug Sep Oct
'14
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
Page 4 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
East Coast 6-3-2-1 (Brent + Freight)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$3.70
$8.39
$7.46
$8.75
QTD 14
$9.89
East Coast 6-3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$20.03
$21.18
$22.08
$20.55
QTD 14
$23.60
'13
'14
Chicago 2-1-1
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$9.47
$10.86
$14.05
$12.11
'13
'14
Gulf Coast 3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
QTD 14
$8.95
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
($5.00)
5-yr Range
November 13, 2014
'13
'14
Page 5 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
West Coast 5-3-2 (ANS cif W. Coast)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$12.97
$14.00
$19.41
$16.85
QTD 14
$16.64
West Coast 5-3-2
$42.50
$34.00
$25.50
$17.00
$8.50
$0.00
5-yr Range
NW Europe 2-1-1 (Brent)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$8.30
$8.97
$11.54
$12.70
QTD 14
$11.43
'13
'14
NW Europe 2-1-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Singapore 2-1-1 (Dubai)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.43
$14.86
$13.88
$13.89
QTD 14
$14.19
'13
'14
Singapore 2-1-1
$30.00
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
November 13, 2014
'13
'14
Page 6 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Maya
LLS- Maya
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.59
$15.17
$9.76
$10.09
$24
$18
$12
QTD 14
$8.72
$6
$0
'13
$5.28
$3.73
$4.73
$3.70
QTD 14
$4.06
5-yr Avg
LLS - Mars
LLS - Mars
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$12
$9
$6
$3
$0
($3)
'13
LLS - ANS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($4.08)
($1.52)
($4.05)
($1.24)
'14
5-yr Avg
LLS - ANS
$15
$10
$5
$0
QTD 14
$2.17
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
$3.61
$5.84
$2.41
$3.43
QTD 14
$3.19
5-yr Avg
LLS - WTI
LLS - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$35
$28
$21
$14
$7
$0
($7)
'13
November 13, 2014
'14
5-yr Avg
Page 7 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Brent
LLS - Brent
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($8.36)
($3.51)
($4.35)
($0.94)
QTD 14
($0.11)
$10
$5
$0
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
QTD 14
$11.97
$9.35
$6.75
$4.37
$3.30
5-yr Avg
Brent - WTI
Brent - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'13
$3.85
$5.45
$7.35
$8.86
QTD 14
$2.73
5-yr Avg
WTI-WTS
WTI - WTS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
($5)
'13
QTD 14
$23.60
$12.95
$11.47
$10.81
$9.62
5-yr Avg
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'13
November 13, 2014
'14
'10-'12 Avg
Page 8 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
CFTC: Non-Commercial Positions
NYMEX WTI
NYMEX WTI: Open Interest vs. Price
Net Long (Short) Position
450,000
300,000
297,281 296,052 295,946 293,683 278,780 280,101
267,304 268,532
150,000
0
9/19/14
9/26/14
$120.00
1.75
$95.00
1.5
$70.00
1.25
$45.00
1
$20.00
2009
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14
2010
2011
2012
Open Interest
NYMEX RBOB
2013
2014
WTI
NYMEX #2 Heating Oil
Net Long (Short) Position
Net Long (Short) Position
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
10,000
75,000
54,789
50,000
35,048
37,456
43,322
57,927
58,210
48,042
34,686
25,000
# of contracts
100,000
# of contracts
WTI ($/bbl)
# of contracts
600,000
Oil Open Interest (MM Contracts)
2
1 contract = 1,000 barrels
0
9/19/14
(2,674)
(10,000)
9/26/14
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14
(7,137)
(10,037)
(13,887)
(20,000)
(18,645)
(22,112)
0
9/19/14
9/26/14
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14
November 13, 2014
(30,000)
(26,509)
(28,461)
Page 9 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Shipping
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: CRUDE OIL
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: GASOLINE
WTI-Brent
(Net of Freight)
USAC-NWE
(Net of Freight)
20.0
$0.00
9/26/14
($0.55)
($1.07)
$ per barrel
($2.00)
($2.41)
($2.49)
($2.85)
($3.30)
($4.00)
17.5
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14
($0.39)
($3.08)
($6.00)
cents per gallon
9/19/14
17.4
15.0
10.0
8.2
7.5
5.0
3.7
0.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
9/19/14
($8.00)
9/26/14
10/3/14
10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14
11/7/14
Gulf Coast/Europe Arbitrage: ULSD
Persian Gulf-USGC: Freight Rate (250' dirty tanker)
USGC-NWE
Trailing 8 weeks
(Net of Freight)
$1.20
3.0
$0.85
1.2
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9/19/14
9/26/14
0.0
0.0
0.0
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14
$ per barrel
cents per gallon
$0.90
1.5
$0.79
$0.66
$0.59
$0.60
$0.52
$0.59
$0.52
$0.46
$0.30
(1.5)
$0.00
9/19/14
(3.0)
9/26/14
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14
Total US Product Imports (000 Bbl/d)
Total US Product Exports (000 Bbl/d)
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
1
4
'14
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
'14
Note: Arb spread estimates provided above represent absolute values:
Positive #
Arb profit on NWE-sourced cargoes imported to U.S.
Negative #
Arb profit (ignore +/- sign) on U.S.-sourced cargoes exported to NWE
November 13, 2014
Page 10 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
WTI
BRENT
NYMEX WTI: 12-Month Strip
ICE Brent: 12-Month Strip
99
99
93
93
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
Energy Futures
87
81
75
CL2
CL3
10/17/2014
CL4
CL5
CL6
10/24/2014
CL7
CL8
CL9 CL10 CL11 CL12
10/31/2014
CO1
11/7/2014
CO2
CO3
10/17/2014
CO4
CO5
CO6
CO7
10/24/2014
CO8
RBOB
NYMEX RBOB: 12-Month Strip
ICE RBOB: 12-Month Strip
265
265
250
250
235
220
205
CO9 CO10 CO11 CO12
10/31/2014
RBOB
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
81
75
CL1
11/7/2014
235
220
205
XB1
XB2
XB3
XB4
10/17/2014
XB5
XB6
XB7
10/24/2014
XB8
XB9 XB10 XB11 XB12
10/31/2014
PG1
PG2
PG3
10/17/2014
11/7/2014
PG4
PG5
PG6
PG7
10/24/2014
PG8
PG9 PG10 PG11 PG12
10/31/2014
#2 HEATING OIL
GASOIL
NYMEX #2 Oil: 12-Month Strip
ICE Gasoil: 12-Month Strip
270
270
258
258
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
87
246
234
222
11/7/2014
246
234
222
HO1
HO2
HO3
10/17/2014
HO4
HO5
HO6
10/24/2014
HO7
HO8
HO9 HO10 HO11 HO12
10/31/2014
QS1
11/7/2014
QS2
QS3
10/17/2014
QS4
QS5
QS6
QS7
10/24/2014
QS8
QS9 QS10 QS11 QS12
10/31/2014
11/7/2014
3-2-1 REFINING MARGIN
2-1-1 REFINING MARGIN
NYMEX 3-2-1: 12-Month Strip
ICE 2-1-1: 12-Month Strip
27.00
27.00
21.00
21.00
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
15.00
9.00
3.00
15.00
9.00
3.00
1
2
3
10/17/2014
4
5
6
10/24/2014
7
8
9
10/31/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
11/7/2014
1
2
10/17/2014
3
4
5
6
10/24/2014
7
8
9
10/31/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
11/7/2014
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
November 13, 2014
Page 11 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Disclosures
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Analyst Certification
I, Blake Fernandez, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securities or issuers; and I, Blake Fernandez, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
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November 13, 2014
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