1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. oil

December 17, 2014
Blake Fernandez504.582.2528
[email protected]
WEEKLY REFINING INDICATORS REPORT
Leonard Raymond504.582.2884
[email protected]
WEEK ENDING 12/12/2014
Quick Take: Not exactly a bullish report but better than the API
crude build of 2.3MMBbl/d announced yesterday evening. On
the product side, the gasoline build of over 5MMBbls was
much larger than expected bringing gasoline inventories about
1.5% above the 5-year average level. Gasoline demand is
finally showing signs of life in this depressed pricing
environment +4.1% Y/Y trailing 4-week average but wasn’t
enough to offset high utilization levels at 93.5% and increased
gasoline imports (+212MBbl/d wk/wk). Of note, Cushing
inventories increased by 2.9MMBbls this week despite an
overall US crude draw of 847MBbls. Finally an item we don’t
typically reference but will begin highlighting over the coming
months is overall domestic production which increased
19MBbl/d wk/wk (Alaska -4MBbl/d & Lower-48 +23MBbl/d).
•
•
•
Days of Crude Demand Cover
27x
25x
23x
21x
Jan
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Gasoline Demand Cover
Trailing 4-week average crude throughput is 2.4% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate December demand cover
of 23.3 days (December ‘13 = 22.9 days, December 09-13
avg. = 23.2).
29x
Trailing 4-week average gasoline demand is 4.1% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate December demand cover
of 24.0 days (December ‘13 = 24.8 days, December 09 -13
avg. = 24.7).
23x
Trailing 4-week average distillate demand is 2.9% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate December demand cover
of 31.6 days (December ‘13 = 31.4 days, December 09-13
avg. = 37.2).
Mar
27x
25x
21x
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
5-yr Avg.
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Distillate Demand Cover
55x
48x
•
Trailing 4-week average total product demand is 1.4%
above the year-ago comp.
We estimate December
demand cover of 56.3 days (December ‘13 = 54.1 days,
December 09-13 avg. = 55.5).
41x
34x
27x
20x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
2014
Days of Total Product Demand Cover
65x
60x
55x
50x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
2013
Sep
Nov
2014
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Howard Weil is a division of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group, and represents Scotiabank’s energy equities
business in the United States. All relevant disclosures and certifications begin on Page 12 of this report.
Howard Weil | Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.  1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500  New Orleans, LA 70163
Page 1 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
DOE Inventories & Imports (000s)
TOTAL U.S.
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
Inventories
Crude
379,942
372,305
2%
348,121
9%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock) 222,014
220,486
1%
218,520
2%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
121,544
115,955
5%
139,431
-13%
16,881
104,663
17,136
98,819
-1%
6%
35,874
103,557
-53%
1%
7,104
7,732
-8%
8,045
-12%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
773
599
29%
739
5%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
139
226
-38%
208
-33%
16,301
15,931
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
Imports
Crude
Crude Throughput
Refinery Utilization
93.5%
91.5%
2%
2%
14,972
87.1%
9%
7%
REGIONAL INVENTORY
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
PADD 1 (Northeast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
11,813
9,998
18%
10,741
10%
53,717
56,534
-5%
55,489
-3%
16,155
16,164
0%
16,479
36,137
36,450
-1%
54,212
-33%
9,279
26,858
10,388
26,062
-11%
3%
27,653
26,558
-66%
1%
104,768
47,414
110,004
50,300
-5%
99,618
50,056
-5%
PADD 2 (Midwest)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
-6%
5%
5,542
5,775
-4%
5,675
25,196
25,894
-3%
27,529
-8%
192,962
82,021
181,373
76,294
6%
166,814
75,790
16%
8%
11,145
10,370
7%
11,620
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
42,618
36,874
16%
40,795
4%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
19,898
19,733
1%
17,170
16%
7,815
4,503
7,495
3,789
4%
7,115
3,725
10%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
50,501
31,047
51,197
29,863
-1%
53,777
30,070
-6%
4%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
13,089
12,948
1%
13,169
-1%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
8%
PADD 4 (Rockies)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
19%
21%
PADD 5 (West Coast)
December 17, 2014
3%
Page 2 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Demand vs. Supply Charts
US Crude Demand (000 Bbl/d)
US Crude Stocks (000 Bbls)
17,000
400,000
15,750
350,000
14,500
13,250
300,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
Jul
'13
Sep
'14
Nov
5-yr Avg
U.S. Gasoline Stocks (000 Bbls)
U.S. Gasoline Demand (000 Bbl/d)
250,000
9,850
9,375
225,000
8,900
200,000
8,425
175,000
7,950
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
'13
'14
Sep
Jan
Nov
Mar
May
Jul
'13
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Demand (000 Bbl/d)
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Stocks (000 Bbls)
4,450
180,000
160,000
4,000
140,000
3,550
120,000
3,100
100,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
'13
US Total Product Demand (000 Bbl/d)
20,750
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Total Product Stocks (000 Bbls)
1,200,000
1,150,000
19,500
1,100,000
18,250
1,050,000
17,000
1,000,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
December 17, 2014
Jul
'14
Sep
5-yr Avg
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Page 3 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Refinery Utilization
US Total Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD I Refinery Utilization (%)
100
100.0
95
90.0
90
80.0
85
70.0
80
75
60.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
'13
Jun Jul
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
5-yr Avg
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD III Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD II Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Jan Feb
Nov Dec
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD V Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD IV Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
December 17, 2014
Aug Sep Oct
'14
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
Page 4 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
East Coast 6-3-2-1 (Brent + Freight)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$3.70
$8.39
$7.46
$8.75
QTD 14
$9.88
East Coast 6-3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$20.03
$21.18
$22.08
$20.55
QTD 14
$21.99
'13
'14
Chicago 2-1-1
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$9.47
$10.86
$14.05
$12.11
'13
'14
Gulf Coast 3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
QTD 14
$7.16
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
($5.00)
5-yr Range
December 17, 2014
'13
'14
Page 5 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
West Coast 5-3-2 (ANS cif W. Coast)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$12.97
$14.00
$19.41
$16.85
QTD 14
$14.40
West Coast 5-3-2
$42.50
$34.00
$25.50
$17.00
$8.50
$0.00
5-yr Range
NW Europe 2-1-1 (Brent)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$8.30
$8.97
$11.54
$12.70
QTD 14
$11.39
'13
'14
NW Europe 2-1-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Singapore 2-1-1 (Dubai)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.43
$14.86
$13.88
$13.89
QTD 14
$15.02
'13
'14
Singapore 2-1-1
$30.00
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
December 17, 2014
'13
'14
Page 6 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Maya
LLS- Maya
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.59
$15.17
$9.76
$10.09
$24
$18
$12
QTD 14
$8.66
$6
$0
'13
$5.28
$3.73
$4.73
$3.70
QTD 14
$3.92
5-yr Avg
LLS - Mars
LLS - Mars
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$12
$9
$6
$3
$0
($3)
'13
LLS - ANS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($4.08)
($1.52)
($4.05)
($1.24)
'14
5-yr Avg
LLS - ANS
$15
$10
$5
$0
QTD 14
$2.01
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
$3.61
$5.84
$2.41
$3.43
QTD 14
$3.02
5-yr Avg
LLS - WTI
LLS - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$35
$28
$21
$14
$7
$0
($7)
'13
December 17, 2014
'14
5-yr Avg
Page 7 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Brent
LLS - Brent
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($8.36)
($3.51)
($4.35)
($0.94)
QTD 14
($0.03)
$10
$5
$0
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
QTD 14
$11.97
$9.35
$6.75
$4.37
$3.05
5-yr Avg
Brent - WTI
Brent - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'13
$3.85
$5.45
$7.35
$8.86
QTD 14
$1.72
5-yr Avg
WTI-WTS
WTI - WTS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
($5)
'13
QTD 14
$23.60
$12.95
$11.47
$10.81
$8.93
5-yr Avg
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'13
December 17, 2014
'14
'10-'12 Avg
Page 8 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
CFTC: Non-Commercial Positions
NYMEX WTI
NYMEX WTI: Open Interest vs. Price
Net Long (Short) Position
375,000
280,101 267,304 268,532 276,832
255,363 253,001 264,996 261,776
250,000
125,000
0
$120.00
1.75
$95.00
1.5
$70.00
1.25
$45.00
1
$20.00
2009
10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14
WTI ($/bbl)
# of contracts
500,000
Oil Open Interest (MM Contracts)
2
1 contract = 1,000 barrels
2010
2011
2012
Open Interest
NYMEX RBOB
2013
2014
WTI
NYMEX #2 Heating Oil
Net Long (Short) Position
Net Long (Short) Position
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
0
100,000
10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14
75,000
54,789
57,927
58,210
62,103
68,247
70,021
68,060
50,000
25,000
0
10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14
December 17, 2014
# of contracts
# of contracts
76,971
(10,000)
(20,000)
(22,112)
(30,000)
(22,681) (21,931)
(26,509)
(28,461) (27,910)
(28,569) (28,613)
(40,000)
Page 9 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Shipping
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: CRUDE OIL
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: GASOLINE
WTI-Brent
(Net of Freight)
USAC-NWE
(Net of Freight)
20.0
$0.00
$ per barrel
($1.00)
($0.80)
($1.01)
($1.20)
($0.87)
($2.00)
($1.88)
($2.49)
($3.00)
cents per gallon
10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14
15.0
10.0
8.2
6.3
5.0
3.7
3.0
3.7
($2.85)
3.1
1.3
($3.08)
1.0
0.0
10/24/14 10/31/14
($4.00)
11/7/14
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14
12/5/14
12/12/14
Gulf Coast/Europe Arbitrage: ULSD
Persian Gulf-USGC: Freight Rate (250' dirty tanker)
USGC-NWE
Trailing 8 weeks
(Net of Freight)
$1.20
3.0
$0.92
$0.85
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14
$ per barrel
cents per gallon
$0.90
$0.85
$0.79
$0.79
$0.85
$0.79
$0.66
$0.60
$0.30
(1.5)
$0.00
10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14
(3.0)
(3.0)
Total US Product Imports (000 Bbl/d)
Total US Product Exports (000 Bbl/d)
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
1
4
'14
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
'14
Note: Arb spread estimates provided above represent absolute values:
Positive #
Arb profit on NWE-sourced cargoes imported to U.S.
Negative #
Arb profit (ignore +/- sign) on U.S.-sourced cargoes exported to NWE
December 17, 2014
Page 10 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
WTI
BRENT
NYMEX WTI: 12-Month Strip
ICE Brent: 12-Month Strip
87
87
79
79
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
Energy Futures
71
63
55
CL2
CL3
11/21/2014
CL4
CL5
CL6
11/28/2014
CL7
CL8
CL9 CL10 CL11 CL12
12/5/2014
CO1
12/12/2014
CO2
CO3
11/21/2014
CO4
CO5
CO6
CO7
11/28/2014
CO8
RBOB
NYMEX RBOB: 12-Month Strip
ICE RBOB: 12-Month Strip
231
231
212
212
193
174
155
CO9 CO10 CO11 CO12
12/5/2014
RBOB
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
63
55
CL1
12/12/2014
193
174
155
XB1
XB2
XB3
XB4
11/21/2014
XB5
XB6
XB7
11/28/2014
XB8
XB9 XB10 XB11 XB12
12/5/2014
PG1
PG2
PG3
11/21/2014
12/12/2014
PG4
PG5
PG6
PG7
11/28/2014
PG8
PG9 PG10 PG11 PG12
12/5/2014
#2 HEATING OIL
GASOIL
NYMEX #2 Oil: 12-Month Strip
ICE Gasoil: 12-Month Strip
250
250
232
232
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
71
214
196
178
12/12/2014
214
196
178
HO1
HO2
HO3
11/21/2014
HO4
HO5
HO6
11/28/2014
HO7
HO8
HO9 HO10 HO11 HO12
12/5/2014
QS1
12/12/2014
QS2
QS3
11/21/2014
QS4
QS5
QS6
QS7
11/28/2014
QS8
QS9 QS10 QS11 QS12
12/5/2014
12/12/2014
3-2-1 REFINING MARGIN
2-1-1 REFINING MARGIN
NYMEX 3-2-1: 12-Month Strip
ICE 2-1-1: 12-Month Strip
27.00
27.00
21.00
21.00
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
15.00
9.00
3.00
15.00
9.00
3.00
1
2
3
11/21/2014
4
5
6
11/28/2014
7
8
9
12/5/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
12/12/2014
1
2
11/21/2014
3
4
5
6
11/28/2014
7
8
9
12/5/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
12/12/2014
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
December 17, 2014
Page 11 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Disclosures
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Analyst Certification
I, Blake Fernandez, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securities or issuers; and I, Blake Fernandez, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
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December 17, 2014
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