US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage

US Economic Indicators:
Railcar Loadings &
Truck Tonnage
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 24, 2014
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
[email protected]
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
[email protected]
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
US Railcar Loadings
Shares of Loadings
US Railcar Loadings
Car Loads
Coal Loadings
Transportation Indicators & Stocks
Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories
ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories
Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production
December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
1
2
3-4
5-6
7
8
9
10
11
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US Railcar Loadings
Figure 1.
600
600
RAILCAR LOADINGS*
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Total
12/20
550
550
500
500
450
450
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400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
400
2016
* Car loads plus intermodal.
Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 2.
400
400
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Car Loads
350
350
12/20
300
300
12/20
250
250
200
200
Intermodal
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150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
150
2016
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 1 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Shares of Loadings
Figure 3.
75
75
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
Car Loads
(as a percent of total)
50
50
Intermodal
(as a percent of total)
45
12/20
45
40
40
35
35
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30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
30
2016
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 4.
60
60
RAILCAR LOADINGS*
50
50
40
40
12/20
Coal Car Loads
(as a percent of total car loads)
30
30
Grain Car Loads
(as a percent of total car loads)
20
20
10
10
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0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
2016
* Based on 26-week moving averages.
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 2 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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US Railcar Loadings
Figure 5.
275
275
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
250
250
12/20
225
225
200
200
175
175
150
150
Intermodal: Total
125
125
Intermodal ex Trailers
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100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
2016
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 6.
70
70
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
65
65
Intermodal: Trailers
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
12/20
30
25
30
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2000
2001
25
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 3 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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US Railcar Loadings
Figure 7.
30
30
RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES
25
25
20
20
12/20
15
15
Motor Vehicles
Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa)
10
10
Sales
(million units, saar)
yardeni.com
5
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
5
16
Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics.
Figure 8.
7
2600
RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS
2300
6
2000
1700
5
1400
4
1100
Lumber & Wood Products
Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa, sa)
12/20
800
3
Housing Starts
(thousand units, saar)
2
500
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90
91
92
200
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 4 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Car Loads
Figure 9.
160
12
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
11
150
10
Coal
Nonmetallic Minerals
140
9
8
130
7
120
6
12/20
12/20
5
110
4
100
3
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
48
12
12/20
46
44
11
Chemicals & Petroleum
Products
42
Pulp & Paper
Products
10
40
9
38
8
36
7
34
12/20
6
32
30
5
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
11
Waste & Scrap
Materials
18
10
Metals & Products
16
14
9
12
12/20
8
10
12/20
8
7
6
yardeni.com
4
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
90
92
94
96
6
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.
Page 5 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Car Loads
Figure 10.
48
48
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
12/20
46
46
Chemicals & Petroleum
Products
44
44
42
42
40
40
38
38
36
36
34
34
32
32
yardeni.com
30
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
30
16
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 11.
16
16
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Metals & Products
14
14
12
12
12/20
10
10
8
8
6
6
yardeni.com
4
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
4
16
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 6 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Coal Loadings
Figure 12.
54
54
RAILCAR LOADINGS: COAL
(percent based on 26-wa)
48
48
42
42
12/20
Coal Car Loadings
36
36
as a percent of total railcar loadings
as a percent of car loads
30
30
24
24
12/20
18
yardeni.com
2000
2001
18
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Figure 13.
500
500
RAILCAR LOADINGS EXCLUDING COAL
(thousand units, 26-wa)
12/20
400
400
300
300
Total Railcar Loadings Excluding Coal
Total Car Loads Excluding Coal
200
200
12/20
yardeni.com
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
2016
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 7 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Transportation Indicators & Stocks
Figure 14.
650
625
600
575
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
620
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & RAILCAR LOADINGS
12/17
600
580
Total Railcar Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa)
12/20
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
S&P 500 Transportation Index
420
400
yardeni.com
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
380
16
Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 15.
650
625
600
575
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
145
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & ATA TRUCKING INDEX
12/17
135
ATA Trucking Index
(2000=100, 3-ma, sa)
125
115
105
95
85
75
S&P 500 Transportation Index
65
yardeni.com
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
55
16
Source: American Trucking Association and Standard & Poor’s.
Page 8 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories
Figure 16.
275
1700
RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
12/20
1600
250
1500
225
1400
200
1300
175
1200
1100
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
150
1000
Intermodal: Total
(thousand units, 26-wa)
125
900
yardeni.com
100
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
800
16
Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau.
Figure 17.
250
1900
RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
12/20
225
1700
Oct
200
175
1500
150
1300
125
100
1100
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
75
900
Intermodal ex Trailers
(thousand units, 26-wa)
50
yardeni.com
25
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
700
16
Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau.
Page 9 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories
Figure 18.
140
ATA TRUCKING INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
1800
Oct
Nov
130
1600
120
110
1400
100
1200
90
80
1000
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
70
800
ATA Trucking Index
(2000=100, 3-ma, sa)
60
yardeni.com
50
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
600
16
Source: American Trucking Association and Census Bureau.
Figure 19.
650
1800
S&P 500 TRANSPORATION INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
12/23
600
1700
Oct
550
Business Inventories
(billions of 2009 dollars, sa)
500
1600
450
1500
S&P 500 Transportation Index
400
1400
350
300
1300
250
1200
200
150
1100
100
1000
50
yardeni.com
0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
900
16
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Page 10 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production
Figure 20.
47
10
RAILCAR LOADINGS & US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION
45
12/20
12/12
Railcar Loadings:
Chemicals & Petroleum Products
(thousand units, 26-wa)
43
9
8
US Crude Oil Field Production
(million barrels per day, nsa)
41
39
7
37
6
35
5
33
4
31
yardeni.com
29
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
3
16
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Energy.
Figure 21.
50
50
RAILCAR LOADINGS: CHEMICALS & PETROLEUM, MOTOR VEHICLES,
LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS
12/20
(thousand units, 26-wa)
40
40
30
30
20
20
Chemicals & Petroleum
Products (46.0)
Motor Vehicles (17.3)
Lumber & Wood Products (3.5)
10
10
yardeni.com
0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
16
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 11 / December 24, 2014 / US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings & Truck Tonnage
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