1. business and industrial

EQUITY RESEARCH
CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
January 7, 2015
Price Target Revisions
! Crew Energy Inc.
Summary
Tightening the belt – 2015 budget set at $185 million; reducing estimates
Summary
Preview: A strong Q4/14 is needed to meet guidance
Summary
4Q Preview: Looking forward to (much) better box office in 2015-16
Summary
FQ1/15E preview – Expect persistent challenges to impact the business
Summary
2015 to be tougher but manageable
Summary
Slimmed-down 2015 budget unveiled; CFPS estimates largely intact
! Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
! Canadian Telecommunications
Summary
A subdued start to 2015 with coal prices at new multi-year lows
Summary
2015 Outlook: Wireless Competition and Bond Yields to Dictate Performance
!
! Mobile & Cloud Networking: 2015
Summary
!
! Uranium Weekly
Summary
LUPE; DETNOR; BNK, CIE
Summary
Ux spot price down $0.25/lb to $35.25/lb; TradeTech down $0.50/lb to $35.50/lb
Summary
Annual - Global $CDN
Summary
Annual - 2014
Summary
Annual - Global $US
First Glance Notes
! Goldcorp Inc.
Earnings Preview
! Cineplex Inc.
! EXFO Inc.
! Lloyd's insurers: Feedback from
London Market Trip
Company Comments
! Crescent Point Energy Corp.
Industry Comments
Services
Global Mining Trends & Values
and beyond
RBC International E&P Daily
Summary
Quantitative Research
! Benchmarks
! Benchmarks
! Benchmarks
Priced as of prior day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).
For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see Page 11.
EQUITY RESEARCH
U.S. RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
January 7, 2015
Initiations
! Media General, Inc.
Summary
Room to Run on Retrans - Initiate with Outperform
Summary
Downgrading to Sector Perform
Summary
Lowering rating to Sector Perform on less attractive risk-reward
Summary
Upgrading to Sector Perform
Summary
Cost of Capital Key to Long Term Success
Summary
Tough Times Call For Tough Measures; Cost of Capital Key to Long Term Success
Summary
Iclusig Q4 bump up due to price adjustment but remain at Sector Perform given lack of catalysts
Summary
Preview: A strong Q4/14 is needed to meet guidance
Summary
Q4/14 Preview: Flat results expected as currency impacts offset weaker downstream results
Summary
FY3Q Preview and Cheat Sheet
Summary
2015 to be tougher but manageable
Summary
Buying opportunity presented in 1Q Still On Track For $3.61 EPS
Summary
Lowering 2015 Numbers On Winter Weather Downtime And Conversion Of Hedges
Summary
Reasons to be long MDCO shares
Ratings Revisions
! General Dynamics Corporation
! Informatica Corporation
! ManTech International Corp.
Price Target Revisions
! LinnCo LLC
! Linn Energy, LLC
First Glance Notes
! Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
! Goldcorp Inc.
Earnings Preview
! Alcoa Inc.
! Constellation Brands, Inc.
! Lloyd's insurers: Feedback from
London Market Trip
Company Comments
! Micron Technology, Inc.
! Pioneer Natural Resources
! The Medicines Company
Industry Comments
! 2015 Software Sector Outlook
! Autos: RBC Inventory Tracker-
Summary
Summary
Inventories end the year on a balanced note
!
! Canadian Telecommunications
Summary
A subdued start to 2015 with coal prices at new multi-year lows
December 2014 Update
Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
!
!
Summary
Services
CES Day 1 Meeting Recap: INTC,
Summary
NVDA, MXIM, Toshiba, Epic
Commercial Trucks: Preliminary net Summary
orders strong in December
Generally Speaking
Summary
!
! Global Aerospace & Defense
! Global Mining Trends & Values
! Hamburger Intelligence
Summary
2015 Outlook: Wireless Competition and Bond Yields to Dictate Performance
Business activity running as expected
Class 8 +38% y/y to 43,900
The Nature of Warfare
2015 Oracle
Summary
Summary
Gas relief in the burger segment?
2
EQUITY RESEARCH
! Mobile & Cloud Networking: 2015
!
Summary
and beyond
RBC Capital Markets US Equity Top Summary
Picks List
RBC Construction Survey, Volume 13 Summary
!
! RBC International E&P Daily
Summary
January 2015
2015 Outlook: Majority Expect a Moderately Better Year
LUPE; DETNOR; BNK, CIE
3
EQUITY RESEARCH
UK & European Research at a Glance
January 7, 2015
Earnings Preview
! Lloyd's insurers: Feedback from
Summary
2015 to be tougher but manageable
! Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
! Canadian Telecommunications
Summary
A subdued start to 2015 with coal prices at new multi-year lows
Summary
2015 Outlook: Wireless Competition and Bond Yields to Dictate Performance
!
! Global Mining Trends & Values
! Mobile & Cloud Networking: 2015
Summary
2015 Oracle
London Market Trip
Industry Comments
Services
Global Aerospace & Defense
Summary
Summary
and beyond
Find our Research at:
RBC Insight (www.rbcinsight.com): RBC's global research destination on the web. Contact your RBC Capital Markets' sales representative to
access our global research site, or use our iPad App "RBC Research"
Thomson Reuters (www.thomsononeanalytics.com)
Bloomberg (RBCR GO)
SNL Financial (www.snl.com)
FactSet (www.factset.com)
4
Price Target Revisions
Crew Energy Inc.(TSX: CR; 5.34)
Michael Harvey, P.Eng. (Analyst)
403 299 6998; [email protected]
Eric Gallie (Associate)
(403) 299-7434; [email protected]
52 WEEKS
Rating:
Price Target:
17JAN14 - 05JAN15
12.00
Outperform
10.00 ▼ 12.00
Tightening the belt – 2015 budget set at $185 million; reducing estimates
Crew announced a $185 million 2015 capital budget (-39% YoY), which is expected
to result in production of roughly 21,000 boe/d, or about flat versus Q4/14 levels.
While both capital and production guidance fall below our prior estimates (and
have driven a reduction to our CFPS forecasts), the conservative program makes
sense in the face of rapidly deteriorating oil prices (in our opinion).
10.00
8.00
6.00
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
J
F
M
A
Close
M
J
2014
J
A
CFPS Diluted Prev.
1.42
1.41
1.18↓
1.50
1.23↓
1.73
2013A
2014E
2015E
2016E
S
O
N
D
J
Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEXMA 40 weeks
P/CFPS
3.8x
3.8x
4.5x
4.3x
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
• Conservative 2015 budget prudent in current environment. Crew's 2015 budget
includes the spending of $185 million, which is expected to result in production
volumes averaging 21,000 boe/d (midpoint). The company noted that it reached
its exit target of 22,000 boe/d in early Q4/14, setting up for an achievable 2015
volume target. Guidance also takes into account a major turnaround at a thirdparty plant in Fort St. John (affects ~2,750 boe/d of CR production in June/July)
and a current ~1,000 boe/d of shut-in volumes (heavy oil and non-Montney gas)
not meeting economic thresholds.
• Operations to be focused on the Montney in NE BC. The company will focus
on the west Septimus 60 mmcf/d plant (on stream in H1 2014) and complete/
tie-in of 12 Septimus wells that were already drilled in 2014. In addition, the
company will operate 2 drilling rigs in H1 2014, which should result in 9 wells
(5 Septimus and 4 Tower). With the commission of the new Septimus plant,
the company will have spare processing capacity to ramp production, which will
depend on prevailing commodity prices. Lloydminster activity will be focused on
recompletions and work-overs with no additional wells expected to be drilled
until oil prices recover.
First Glance Notes
Goldcorp Inc.(NYSE: GG; 20.31; TSX: G)
Stephen D. Walker (Analyst)
(416) 842-4120; [email protected]
Jamie Kasprowicz, P.Eng., CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-8934; [email protected]
52 WEEKS
Rating:
17JAN14 - 05JAN15
28.00
26.00
24.00
22.00
20.00
18.00
60000
40000
20000
J
F
M
Close
A
M
J
2014
J
A
S
Rel. S&P 500
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Outperform
Preview: A strong Q4/14 is needed to meet guidance
O
N
D
MA 40 weeks
J
• As in previous years, early in the New Year we expect Goldcorp to release
its recently completed gold annual production/costs and five-year production
forecast. While we believe Goldcorp's 2015 and 2016 production growth profile
and industry-leading low AISC costs remain intact, we have concerns that the
company may not meet its 2014 production guidance of 2.95–3.15Moz. We
would use any share price weakness as a buying opportunity.
• We estimate that Q4/14 production must exceed 970koz to achieve the low
end of the guidance range, based on the production results reported in the first
nine months of 2014. We believe key drivers of the downside risk could include:
(1) a slower than expected ramp-up at Cerro Negro; (2) a lower than expected
rebound in Au-Ag-Pb grades or higher than expected Cu grades at Penasquito;
and/or (3) a slower transition to the new de-stressed High Grade Zones at Red
Lake.
• We forecast 2015 production of 3.75Moz at AISC of $751/oz and have also
included our five-year forecast.
Earnings Preview
Haran Posner (Analyst)
(416) 842-7832; [email protected]
Drew McReynolds, CFA, CA (Analyst)
Cineplex Inc.(TSX: CGX; 43.71)
Rating:
Outperform
5
Price Target:
(416) 842-3805; [email protected]
46.00
52 WEEKS
17JAN14 - 05JAN15
45.00
4Q Preview: Looking forward to (much) better box office in 2015-16
Cineplex is expected to report 4Q14 results in early February (conference call details
TBA). Ahead of the quarter, we are trimming our estimates to reflect softer-thanexpected industry box office.
44.00
42.00
40.00
1600
1200
800
400
J
F
M
A
Close
M
J
2014
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEXMA 40 weeks
EBITDA Prev.
202.4
187.4↓
201.9
242.0↓
247.8
275.7↓
280.1
2013A
2014E
2015E
2016E
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
EXFO Inc.(NASDAQ: EXFO; 3.48; TSX: EXF)
Steve Arthur, CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-7844; [email protected]
Anthony Jin, CFA, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-5338; [email protected]
Rating:
Price Target:
52 WEEKS
17JAN14 - 05JAN15
Sector Perform
4.75
FQ1/15E preview – Expect persistent challenges to impact the business
EXFO reports FQ1/15E results on January 7th. Difficult end-market conditions
persist into 2015, particularly with ongoing carrier consolidation and more recently,
regulatory uncertainty (i.e. net neutrality). 2014 was a relatively good year for capex
spending, but this has not translated positively for EXFO. We maintain our Sector
Perform rating and $4.75 target price, pending indications of sustained revenue and
earnings growth.
4.80
4.40
4.00
3.60
3.20
600
400
200
J
F
M
A
Close
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
• Trimming estimates; $45 target unchanged. Domestic (i.e., North America) box
office declined -4.5% YoY in 4Q and -5.2% for the full year in 2014. While
our 2014E EBITDA estimate decreases more meaningfully (softer-than-expected
industry box office in 4Q), our 2015E and 2016E EBITDA estimates decrease only
modestly (from $248MM and $280MM, respectively, to $242MM and $276MM).
With a rolling forward of our valuation, our $45 price target remains unchanged.
• We continue to like CGX as relative safe-haven. We recognize the modest
implied returns to our target at the moment. However, in the context of rising
equity market volatility and a challenging media environment, we continue to
like the defensive attributes of Cineplex including its strong competitive position
(nearly 80% market share), the counter-cyclical nature of cinema attendance,
the high-growth profile of cinema and digital out-of-home advertising, and the
stock's attractive and sustainable yield.
• 4Q preview: a fitting end to a challenging year. We forecast revenue and
adjusted EBITDA of $314MM (-2.9% YoY) and $49MM (-9.5% YoY), respectively.
Our forecast assumes: (i) -6.1% YoY decline in box office revenue (versus the
unadjusted Canadian box office decline of -6.6%); (ii) +2.0% and +3.5% YoY
growth in BPP and CPP, respectively; (iii) total media revenue growth of +10.5%
YoY; and (iv) film cost and concession cost percentages of 51.8% and 21.5%,
respectively. Our forecast translates to -113bps of EBITDA margin contraction
YoY.
M
J
2014
J
A
Rel. S&P 500
Revenue
230.8
241.0
257.2
269.6
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
S
O
N
D
MA 40 weeks
J
• Mid-single digit y/y growth expected in FQ1/15E: We expect revenues of US
$60.3MM (+8% y/y), gross margins of 63% and adjusted EPS of $0.04. These are
in-line with consensus expectations and within prior management guidance of
US$58MM to US$62MM in revenues and adjusted EPS of US$0.01 to US$0.05.
• Key items to watch: We look for updates on the following: 1) management
tone and commentary on end-market conditions and customer uptake of recent
product launches; 2) Bookings in excess of $60MM for a book-to-bill greater
than 1x; 3) updates on the target business model (i.e. 63-65% gross margins,
34-36% SG&A and 18-20% R&D targets); 4) reiteration of the company’s growth
expectations for F2015E and 5) FQ2/15E guidance – we forecast revenues of
$57MM to drive $4MM of EBITDA.
• End market conditions remain soft amidst carrier consolidation, net neutrality
regulatory uncertainty: Disruptive carrier M&A continued through the quarter
with a number of deals pending their close. This follows a number of M&A
transactions over the past two years, which continue to influence carrier
spending. Capex spending among the top four US wireless carriers is expected
to decline -4% y/y to $30.6B. During the quarter, AT&T also announced a halt on
6
future investments in high-speed internet (post-DirecTV) given the uncertainty
of the US regulatory environment.
• Healthy Balance Sheet, positive cash flows: EXFO ended FQ4/14 with $60MM
in net cash ($0.98/share).
• Maintain Sector Perform rating and US$4.75 target: Shares currently trade at
only 10.2x C2016E EPS and 5.1x C2016E EV/EBITDA.
Lloyd's insurers: Feedback from London Market Trip
Kamran Hossain (Analyst)
+44 20 7029 0847; [email protected]
Lloyd's insurers: Feedback from London Market Trip
• RBC hosted a London Market trip today meeting management from Beazley,
Hiscox, Lancashire and Lloyd's of London presenting their views on the January
reinsurance renewals and the outlook for 2015.
• Property catastrophe pricing down in line with reinsurance
broker reports
• Property catastrophe pricing was down between 7.5-15% in line with the
recent renewals report published by Willis Re. Retrocession business was also
highlighted as a class of business that had come under significant pressure at
the renewals. Companies observed that there was some pricing contagion out
of property catastrophe reinsurance into larger ticket risks elsewhere. Prices
outside of reinsurance and larger ticket risks are likely to see less dramatic
softening than in reinsurance with low single digit declines expected.
• Lloyd's insurers hold lead positions on business
• We heard during the course of the day that the Lloyd’s companies hold many
leading positions in their main classes of business, some examples given during
the day were Energy business at Lancashire and Specialty lines at Beazley.
We believe that holding lead positions on core business will allow the Lloyd's
companies to remain relevant to both brokers and clients.
• Lloyd's insurers continue to act more rationally than in the past
• We believe one of the changes seen from previous cycles is that market
participants are acting more rationally. During the meeting with Lloyd’s, Tom
Bolt commented that companies that have the best historical track records are
actually reducing their planned premiums for 2015.
Company Comments
Crescent Point Energy Corp.(TSX: CPG; 25.13)
Michael Harvey, P.Eng. (Analyst)
403 299 6998; [email protected]
Eric Gallie (Associate)
(403) 299-7434; [email protected]
52 WEEKS
Rating:
Price Target:
17JAN14 - 05JAN15
Slimmed-down 2015 budget unveiled; CFPS estimates largely intact
Crescent Point announced a 2015 budget that incorporates the investment of
$1.45 million (-28% YoY) and a production target of 152,500 boe/d (+9% YoY).
Partially driven by the expectation of efficiency improvements, our 2015 CFPS
estimates fall only slightly (-1%), with a significant reduction (-$300 million) in
forecasted capital expenditures versus our prior estimates. We've retained our
Outperform rating.
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
J
F
M
Close
2013A
2014E
2015E
2016E
Outperform
33.00
A
M
J
2014
J
A
S
O
N
D
Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEXMA 40 weeks
CFPS Diluted Prev.
5.28
5.88
4.73↓
4.78
4.68↓
4.72
P/CFPS
4.8x
4.3x
5.3x
5.4x
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
J
• Rapidly falling crude prices prompt a prudent 2015 capital budget. CPG
provided a reduced 2015 budget of $1.45 billion, which maps to a 28% reduction
YoY. Production is now expected to average 152,500 boe/d (+9% YoY, 0%/share
debt-adj), a target that in our view is achievable given that the company reached
155,000 boe/d in November 2014. With more than 50% of oil hedged at $90/bbl
and a strong balance sheet, Crescent Point remains flexible to adjust the budget
(either up or down) depending on variable commodity prices.
• Operations focused on high netback infill areas. The company expects to
allocate 88% of its total budget to the drilling and completion of 616 net wells. As
detailed in Exhibit 2, drilling allocation will be focused on high netback de-risked
7
locations, consisting of 185 Bakken, 137 Viking, 109 Shaunavon, 44 Torquay, 36
Uinta (vertical and horizontal), 68 SE Saskatchewan Conventional, and 37 other
wells (Alberta, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Manitoba). Implementation
and/or expansion of waterflood efforts will continue in 2015 and the company
will continue to refine its 25-stage cemented liner completion techniques, which
should help CPG improve efficiencies and mitigate declines.
Industry Comments
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
Melissa Oliphant (Associate)
416 842 4126; [email protected]
• What's Hot: The spot lump premium remained at a record high of $0.31/dmtu,
with demand boosted by mills reducing sintering emissions by substituting lump.
• What's Not: Premium low-vol HCC fell to a new seven-and-a-half year low of
$117.25/t CFR China. Bearish fundamentals have driven CIF ARA thermal coal
down by 13% MoM to $62.60/t.
• Our View: We expect supply to remain the key determinant of commodity
performance in 2015. Coking coal prices should rise modestly as production cuts
take effect. We look for a recovery in iron ore towards $80/t in Q1/15 on seasonal
supply impacts. While we do not expect thermal coal prices to fall from current
levels, improvements will be hindered by reduced Chinese imports and ongoing
supply strength.
• China removed the 9-13% export tax rebate on boron steel, which will reduce
margins and will likely exacerbate domestic oversupply and weigh on iron ore
and met coal prices.
• According to a Bloomberg report, Chinese stimulus for 2015 will include the
acceleration of $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, which would provide
support to iron ore prices.
• Met coal prices primarily fell in Asia-Pacific, while SSCC in Asia and HCC prices in
the Atlantic Basin posted slight gains.
• Thermal coal: FOB Newcastle, FOB Richards Bay, and CIF ARA prices fell by
0.6%, 0.8%, and 6.5%, respectively. China implemented its import limits on trace
element content.
• Iron ore: IODEX is unchanged at $71.75/t, supported by strong rebar futures and
mill restocking.
• Steel: HRC and rebar prices were mixed.
Chris Drew, CFA (Analyst)
+61 2 9033 3060; [email protected]
Ken Tham, CFA (Analyst)
+61 2 9033 3064; [email protected]
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
A subdued start to 2015 with coal prices at new multi-year lows
Drew McReynolds, CFA, CA (Analyst)
(416) 842-3805; [email protected]
Canadian Telecommunications Services
Jie He (Associate)
416 842 4123; [email protected]
• Investment Thesis: Maintaining a Tactical Approach to Wireless with a Focus
on NAV Growth. Our tactical approach to wireless weighs the operational
performance, competitive position, and execution capability of each wireless
operator against the probability and likely impact of a stronger recapitalized
fourth national wireless player. Our focus on NAV growth reflects an increased
reliance on NAV growth to drive returns in a rising interest rate environment
where we see the potential for multiple contraction and lower investor demand
for yield. Our Outperform-ranked stocks are Cogeco Cable and TELUS.
• Wireless Competition and Bond Yields to Dictate Performance. In 2014,
Canadian telecom stocks outperformed the broader market for an impressive
fifth consecutive year. In 2015, we believe industry fundamentals will remain
stable with +3% average revenue and EBITDA growth, +6% average adjusted
EPS growth, and +14% FCF growth. Against this backdrop, we believe sector
performance in 2015 will largely be dictated by two factors: wireless competition
and bond yields. Our working assumptions on these two fronts are that: (i)
a stronger recapitalized fourth national wireless player does emerge, but the
competitive impact on the wireless incumbents, while negative, is manageable;
and (ii) bond yields gradually rise as forecast by RBC Economics. Our average total
return expectation for the group is +5%.
Haran Posner (Analyst)
(416) 842-7832; [email protected]
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
2015 Outlook: Wireless Competition and Bond Yields to Dictate Performance
Global Mining Trends & Values
8
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Chris Drew, CFA (Analyst)
+61 2 9033 3060; [email protected]
Timothy Huff (Analyst)
+44 20 7653 4866; [email protected]
Des Kilalea (Analyst)
+44 20 7653 4538; [email protected]
Ken Tham, CFA (Analyst)
+61 2 9033 3064; [email protected]
Paul Hissey (Analyst)
+61 3 8688 6512; [email protected]
Commodity Price Performance:
• Metal prices were down on average 0.0% last week. Iron Ore was the best
performer up 7.5%, followed by zinc up 1.3%, gold up 1.1%, silver up 0.4%, coking
coal up 0.2%, and moly flat 0.0%. Nickel was the worst performer down 3.3%,
followed by thermal coal down 2.2%, uranium down 2.1%, aluminium down
1.6%, lead down 0.9%, and copper down 0.8%.
Mining Share Price Performance:
• Mining shares were up on average 5.7% last week. The best performing group
was iron ore up 22.7%, followed by miscellaneous up 6.7%, copper up 5.8%,
uranium up 4.1%, nickel up 1.7%, aluminium up 0.7%, mineral sands up 0.3%, the
diversified group down 1.1%, and coal down 3.1%.
Valuation:
• Mining shares are now trading at an 8.9% discount to NAV at forward curve
prices, versus a 10.4% discount one week ago.
Long/Short Metal Positions:
• RBC CM's proprietary data for the LME shows that the net short positions in
copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel, and lead all were unchanged last week.
Exchange Inventories:
• Total exchange inventories of aluminium and zinc decreased last week, while
total inventories of copper and nickel increased last week.
Mark Sue (Analyst)
(212) 428-6491; [email protected]
Paul Treiber, CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-7811; [email protected]
Ameet Prabhu (Associate)
(212) 618-3330; [email protected]
Spencer Green (Associate)
212 858 7153; [email protected]
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Mobile & Cloud Networking: 2015 and beyond
• Investment framework. For the New Year and beyond, we classify companies
in 3 key investment categories: emerging tech, recomposing tech, and
cash generating tech. Each has respective valuation parameters and we’re
recommending specific stocks in each category across capitalization groups.
• In Cloud & Mobile, it's going to be a more selective year for cloud and mobilecentric companies considering mixed trends in 2014. Our recommendations
are Arista Networks, F5 Networks, and Ruckus Wireless. Companies effecting
change with business re-composition are Nokia, BlackBerry, Brocade, and JDSU.
• Returning cash. Mature technology companies generating cash and returning it
to shareholders may see solid returns in a year where the market values liquidity
and risk-adjusted returns. Qualcomm, Cisco, Corning, Garmin, and Amdocs are
increasingly becoming good stewards of capital.
• Opportunities to fix structural issues. Ericsson, Finisar, and Aruba Networks
have major opportunities to change their way of doing business be it
consolidation, business model change, or erecting barriers to entry.
• Increasingly Cyclical. Our analysis of global capex for top-28 carriers shows
moderating trends in CY15 following a year when total capex grew +9% to an
astounding $209B. We look for companies to reduce their fixed costs and make
their business models increasingly variable.
• Growth in IOT, MDM. Qualcomm, Garmin, Sierra Wireless and others may see
a lift from IoT though the rate of broad adoption remains fluid. Mobile device
management may see sharper value growth this year, a trend likely to benefit
BlackBerry, Mobile Iron, AirWatch, and a few select others.
Nathan Piper (Analyst)
+44 131 222 3649; [email protected]
RBC International E&P Daily
Al Stanton (Analyst)
+44 131 222 3638; [email protected]
LUPE.ST: 2015 capex program - focused on developments; DETNOR.OL: RBL
redetermination; BNK.TO: Sales volumes and prices below forecast due to shut-ins
in November and lower realisations; CIE: Oil discovery in Gulf of Mexico; Dry hole
offshore Angola
Victoria McCulloch, CA (Analyst)
+44 131 222 4909; [email protected]
Haydn Rodgers, CA (Associate)
+44 131 222 4911; [email protected]
LUPE; DETNOR; BNK, CIE
9
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Steve Bristo, CFA (Associate)
(416) 842-7826; [email protected]
Thomas Klein (Associate)
(416) 842-5339; [email protected]
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Uranium Weekly
Ux spot price down $0.25/lb to $35.25/lb; TradeTech down $0.50/lb to $35.50/
lb
• Ux spot price indicator was down $0.25/lb to $35.25/lb and TradeTech was down
$0.50/lb to $35.50/lb.
• Ux term price indicator was unchanged at $49.00/lb, and TradeTech was
unchanged at $50.00/lb (quoted monthly at month-end).
• Uranium Participation Corp. (UPC) traded up 0.2% over the past week to close at
C$5.15 per share (vs. S&P/TSX -1.8%).
• We estimate UPC is discounting a uranium price of $32.86/lb, a 6.8% discount to
spot. Last week we estimated that UPC discounted a uranium price of $33.19/lb,
a 6.5% discount to the then-prevailing spot price.
• We rate Uranium Participation Corp. Outperform with a target price of C$6.00
per share.
Quantitative Research
Chad McAlpine, CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-7869; [email protected]
Benchmarks
Bish Koziol (Associate)
(416) 842-7866; [email protected]
At the end of each year, this report summarizes the annual performance of the most
commonly tracked Global benchmark indices over the past seven years.
Chad McAlpine, CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-7869; [email protected]
Benchmarks
Bish Koziol (Associate)
(416) 842-7866; [email protected]
• At the end of each year, this report summarizes the annual performance of the
most commonly tracked North American benchmark indices over the past eight
years
• Also shown are annual returns of the sectors and major industry groups of the
S&P/TSX Composite.
Chad McAlpine, CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-7869; [email protected]
Benchmarks
Bish Koziol (Associate)
(416) 842-7866; [email protected]
• At the end of each year, this report summarizes the annual performance of the
most commonly tracked Global benchmark indices over the past seven years.
Annual - Global $CDN
Annual - 2014
Annual - Global $US
10
Required disclosures
Non-U.S. analyst disclosure
Nathan Piper;Al Stanton;Victoria McCulloch;Haydn Rodgers;Paul Treiber;Drew McReynolds;Jie He;Haran Posner;Michael
Harvey;Eric Gallie;Fraser Phillips;Chris Drew;Timothy Huff;Des Kilalea;Ken Tham;Paul Hissey;Melissa Oliphant;Stephen D.
Walker;Jamie Kasprowicz;Chad McAlpine;Bish Koziol;Kamran Hossain;Steve Arthur;Anthony Jin;Steve Bristo;Thomas Klein (i) are
not registered/qualified as research analysts with the NYSE and/or FINRA and (ii) may not be associated persons of the RBC Capital
Markets, LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a
subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Conflicts disclosures
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to provide specific disclosures for the subject companies by reference. To access current disclosures for the subject companies,
clients should refer to https://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?entityId=1 or send a request to
RBC CM Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7.
Please note that current conflicts disclosures may differ from those as of the publication date on, and as set forth in, this report.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including
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by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.
Distribution of ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories
- Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Top Pick(TP)/
Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively,
the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below).
Distribution of ratings
RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
As of 31-Dec-2014
Rating
BUY [Top Pick & Outperform]
HOLD [Sector Perform]
SELL [Underperform]
Count
897
686
112
Percent
52.92
40.47
6.61
Investment Banking
Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Count
Percent
290
32.33
137
19.97
6
5.36
Conflicts policy
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To access our current policy, clients should refer to
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or send a request to RBC Capital Markets Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South
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11
Markets also provides eligible clients with access to SPARC on its proprietary INSIGHT website. SPARC contains market color and
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