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EQUITY RESEARCH
CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
January 14, 2015
Price Target Revisions
! Corus Entertainment Inc.
! Suncor Energy Inc.
Summary
Dividend supports the stock, but valuation out-of-sync with organic trends
Summary
Walking the Talk
Summary
Cigar Lake 2014 production within guidance; 2015 guidance lower than expectations
Summary
2014 production in line with guidance; Q4/14 results below expectations
Summary
Q1/15 Results - Delivering Another Good Quarter
Summary
1Q results modestly below consensus; dividend increased +4.6%
! Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
! Canadian Oilfield Services – Impact
Summary
IODEX falls back below $70/t as Chinese steel prices decline
!
Summary
Q4/14 preview and best ideas
!
! Q1/15 Global Mining Best Ideas
Summary
Lumber Stats: production growth in 2014 almost entirely out of the US
!
! Turnin' to the Right - Canadian
Summary
PMO; DETNOR; TLW; GPX
Summary
Wrapping up a turbulent 2014
!
Summary
Ux spot price up $0.15/lb to $35.40/lb; TradeTech down $0.10/lb to $35.40/lb
First Glance Notes
! Cameco Corporation
! Capstone Mining Corp.
! Cogeco Cable Inc.
! Corus Entertainment Inc.
Industry Comments
of accelerated U.S. rig decline
forecast
Correction: Canadian Diversified
Financials
Forest Products
Portfolio
RBC International E&P Daily
Oilfield Services Insights
Uranium Weekly
Summary
Summary
Priced as of prior day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).
For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see Page 11.
EQUITY RESEARCH
U.S. RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
January 14, 2015
Price Target Revisions
! KB Home
! Kinder Morgan, Inc.
! Mohawk Industries, Inc.
! Suncor Energy Inc.
Summary
4Q14A Earnings Review
Summary
Refreshed and Ready to Go; Reiterate Outperform
Summary
Updating the long thesis
Summary
Walking the Talk
Summary
Cigar Lake 2014 production within guidance; 2015 guidance lower than expectations
Summary
Q4/14 deliveries ahead on bizjets; large cabin regional jets still soft
Summary
Incremental management comments on reimbursement and NASH pipeline
Summary
Preannounced Slightly Weaker than Expected Quarter
Summary
Management breakfast underscores why we are bullish; earnings power underestimated
Summary
Re-calibrating EPS estimates on adjusted rig count mix
Summary
Re-calibrating EPS estimates on adjusted rig count mix
Summary
Lowering estimates after re-calibrating land rig forecast
Summary
FY15 guidance less negative than feared
Summary
Lowering estimates after re-calibrating land rig forecast
Summary
A Positive View from the Cloud World Tour
Summary
Lowering estimates after re-calibrating land rig forecast
Summary
Netlist injunction a blow to ULLtraDIMM but does not affect our model
Summary
Re-calibrating EPS estimates on adjusted rig count mix
Summary
Reduces 2015 CapEx Budget By 55%; New Fasken Wells Looked Solid
Summary
Re-calibrating EPS estimates on adjusted rig count mix
! Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
! Forest Products
! Multi-Industry 4Q14 Earnings
Summary
IODEX falls back below $70/t as Chinese steel prices decline
Summary
Lumber Stats: production growth in 2014 almost entirely out of the US
Summary
2015 Estimates Headed Lower
!
! Q4/14 Coatings Earnings Preview:
Summary
Through January 13, 2015
First Glance Notes
! Cameco Corporation
! Embraer S.A.
! Gilead Sciences
! Stryker Corp.
Company Comments
! Akorn Inc.
! Baker Hughes, Inc.
! Halliburton Company
! Helmerich & Payne Inc.
! IHS Inc.
! Nabors Industries Inc.
! Oracle
! Patterson-UTI Energy
! SanDisk Corporation
! Schlumberger Limited
! Swift Energy Company
! Weatherford International
Industry Comments
Preview
Nexus.One
Summary
Raising Targets on Pricing and Raws
Benefit
RBC European Industrials Daily
Summary
!
! RBC International E&P Daily
! US Oilfield Services: Re-Calibrating
Accelerating rig count decline; Encouraging healthcare survey; Fenner
Summary
PMO; DETNOR; TLW; GPX
Summary
January 2014 Land Drilling Report
US Land Forecast – 34% Drop in 2015
2
EQUITY RESEARCH
Investment Strategy Research
! Underlying Earnings Trends
Summary
In-Depth Reports
! Internet Q4 EPS Preview
Summary
Q4 EPS Preview for the Mid-Large Cap Internet Stocks
3
EQUITY RESEARCH
UK & European Research at a Glance
January 14, 2015
Company Comments
! International Consolidated Airlines
Summary
Aer Lingus scenarios - waiting is an option
Summary
IODEX falls back below $70/t as Chinese steel prices decline
Industry Comments
! Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
! Q1/15 Global Mining Best Ideas
Summary
Portfolio
Find our Research at:
RBC Insight (www.rbcinsight.com): RBC's global research destination on the web. Contact your RBC Capital Markets' sales representative to
access our global research site, or use our iPad App "RBC Research"
Thomson Reuters (www.thomsononeanalytics.com)
Bloomberg (RBCR GO)
SNL Financial (www.snl.com)
FactSet (www.factset.com)
4
Price Target Revisions
Corus Entertainment Inc.(TSX: CJR.B; 22.49)
Haran Posner (Analyst)
(416) 842-7832; [email protected]
Drew McReynolds, CFA, CA (Analyst)
(416) 842-3805; [email protected]
26.00
52 WEEKS
Rating:
Price Target:
24JAN14 - 12JAN15
Sector Perform
22.00 ▼ 23.00
Dividend supports the stock, but valuation out-of-sync with organic trends
We maintain our Sector Perform rating and lower our price target to $22
following softer-than-expected 1Q results.
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Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEXMA 40 weeks
EPS, Ops Diluted Prev.
2013A
1.65
2014A
1.77
2015E
1.85↓
1.96
2016E
1.98↓
2.08
P/E
13.6x
12.7x
12.2x
11.4x
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
• Trimming estimates and reducing target to $22. On the heels of 1Q results,
we are modestly lowering our revenue growth and margin assumptions in both
television and radio. Our F2015E and F2016E EBITDA estimates decrease from
$308MM and $319MM, respectively, to $300MM and $309MM. We continue
to see support for the shares driven by the company’s solid FCF generation
(8.3% FCF yield in F2015E) and attractive dividend yield (5.1%). However, our
Sector Perform rating reflects (i) FTM EV/EBITDA valuation of 9.3x after Tuesday’s
puzzling share price gain (+7.5%) and our downward estimate revisions (upperend of the 5-year range of 6.5-9.5x); (ii) our desire to see a return to consistently
positive organic revenue growth (particularly given rising structural headwinds
for linear broadcast); and (iii) elevated regulatory risk pending a CRTC decision on
Let’s Talk TV (channel unbundling would be negative, and Corus has meaningful
exposure).
Suncor Energy Inc.(TSX: SU; 34.81; NYSE: SU)
Greg Pardy, CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-7848; [email protected]
Franz Hargo Muljo, CA (Associate)
416 842 8588; [email protected]
Rating:
Price Target:
52 WEEKS
24JAN14 - 12JAN15
46.00
44.00
42.00
40.00
Outperform
41.00 ▼ 42.00
Walking the Talk
Suncor Energy’s revised 2015 budget pointed toward a $1 billion (13%) reduction
in its capital spending to a mid-point of $6.5 billion, with production guidance
unchanged at 540,000 – 585,000 boe/d.
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Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEXMA 40 weeks
EPS, Ops Diluted Prev.
2013A
3.13
2014E
3.28
2015E
0.89↑
0.79
2016E
1.78↓
1.80
P/E
11.1x
10.6x
39.1x
19.6x
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
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• In our minds, Suncor’s decision to live within its means is logical and potentially
savvy should acquisition opportunities arise – possibly in US refining, as we move
through 2015 and into next year. Suncor remains our favorite integrated oil
producer.
• Cutting $1 billion in Capital. Suncor announced a $1 billion cut to its 2015 capital
program, which now ranges from $6.2 – $6.8 billion. Oil sands expenditures now
account for 62% of its 2015 budget – up from 60% previously. These initiatives
encompass its unsanctioned 20,000 b/d MacKay River expansion, as well as the
White Rose Extension. Sustained operating expense reduction initiatives of $600
– $800 million are also targeted to be phased in over two years. Suncor’s revised
2015 guidance also pointed toward a total 2015 workforce reduction of 1000
employees (mainly contractors), while a hiring freeze has moved into place for
roles not critical to operations and safety.
First Glance Notes
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Steve Bristo, CFA (Associate)
(416) 842-7826; [email protected]
Thomas Klein (Associate)
(416) 842-5339; [email protected]
Cameco Corporation(TSX: CCO; 17.60; NYSE: CCJ)
Rating:
Outperform
Cigar Lake 2014 production within guidance; 2015 guidance lower than
expectations
• Production from Cigar Lake in 2014 in line with expectations: Cameco
announced today that total production for 2014 from Cigar Lake was 0.34 million
pounds (100% basis), in the middle of the guidance range of 0.2 - 0.6 million
pounds.
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24JAN14 - 12JAN15
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All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
Capstone Mining Corp.(TSX: CS; 1.93)
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Melissa Oliphant (Associate)
416 842 4126; [email protected]
3.30
Rating:
24JAN14 - 12JAN15
3.00
2.70
2.40
2.10
1.80
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Sector Perform
2014 production in line with guidance; Q4/14 results below expectations
52 WEEKS
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• 2015 Cigar Lake Production expected to be 6 to 8 million pounds, lower than
previous guidance: The guidance is on a 100% basis. The guidance is below our
estimate and previous guidance of 11 million pounds on a 100% basis. The last
time Cameco reported 2015 - 2017 guidance for Cigar Lake was Q3/13, at which
point the guidance matched the mine plan in the 2012 technical report.
• Lower 2015 production guidance a negative for Cameco, but a positive for the
uranium market, in our view: The lower Cigar Lake production is a positive for
the uranium market. However, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on prices
given our forecast that the market remains in surplus out to 2020.
• Cigar Lake still expected to reach full design rates by 2018: Cameco continues to
expect that full production rates of 18 million pounds (100% basis), or 9 million
pounds for Cameco's 50.025% interest will be reached by 2018.
• Reporting details: Cameco will report Q4/14 results on Friday, February 6, 2015
after market close. A conference call will be held Monday, February 9 at 11:00
a.m. ET. Dial in: 416-340-8530 or 1-800-769-8320.
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Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEXMA 40 weeks
All market data in CAD; all financial data in USD.
Drew McReynolds, CFA, CA (Analyst)
(416) 842-3805; [email protected]
Jie He (Associate)
416 842 4123; [email protected]
Haran Posner (Analyst)
(416) 842-7832; [email protected]
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• Capstone's 2014 copper production in line with guidance: Capstone produced
228 Mlbs of copper in concentrate and cathode in 2014, 1.4% below guidance of
231 Mlbs, with slight misses at Pinto Valley, Cozamin and Minto.
• Q4/14 production declined QoQ and came in below our estimates: Capstone
produced 50.9 Mlbs of copper in Q4/14, down 10% QoQ and 7% below our
estimate due to lower than expected production from all mines.
• Lower than planned throughput and grades at Pinto Valley: Pinto Valley
produced 33.5 Mlbs of copper in Q4/14, down 5% QoQ but just 2% below our
estimate. Capstone reported that lower than planned throughput and grades
contributed to the result.
• 9% decline in copper grade at Cozamin: Capstone reported that ground support
remediation activities continued to impact the release of higher-grade mining
areas.
• At Minto, the processing of lower-grade stockpile resulted in grades 26% below
last quarter for copper production of 7.3 Mlbs, 31% lower than Q3/14 but in
line with company guidance. Capstone supplemented the processing of stockpile
with ore from the M-Zone and Area 118 underground, which was advanced in the
mine plan after it was announced that Minto North will not come into production
until late 2015 due to permitting delays. Capstone this morning stated that it
expects to receive the required permits in March.
• 2015 outlook: Capstone will release 2015 operating and capital guidance from
January 19-23, 2015.
• Financial reporting details: Capstone will report 2014 financial results on
February 17, 2015 after market close.
Cogeco Cable Inc.(TSX: CCA; 74.75)
Rating:
Outperform
Q1/15 Results - Delivering Another Good Quarter
• Consolidated Q1/15 results slightly ahead of our expectations and in line with
consensus. Consolidated revenue and EBITDA were $497MM (+4.6% YoY) and
$219MM (+3.5%), respectively, slightly ahead of our estimates of $497MM and
$216MM (consensus was $496MM and $219MM). Consolidated EBITDA margins
were 44.0%, versus our estimate of 43.4% and 44.5% in Q1/14. Adjusted EPS of
$1.16 exceeded our $1.11 estimate (consensus was $1.13). F2015 guidance was
reiterated.
• What to look for on the 9:30am ET conference call (#800-524-8950, code:
9732023#). (i) an update on the IPTV footprint overlap (estimated at 35%-40%);
(ii) the extent to which higher programming costs were reflected in Q1/15
Canadian Cable margins; (iii) the business contribution to better than expected
6
52 WEEKS
24JAN14 - 12JAN15
70.00
Internet subscriber growth; (iv) early traction with TiVo in Ontario; and (v) and
update on acquisition opportunities.
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All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
Corus Entertainment Inc.(TSX: CJR.B; 21.02)
Haran Posner (Analyst)
(416) 842-7832; [email protected]
Drew McReynolds, CFA, CA (Analyst)
(416) 842-3805; [email protected]
26.00
52 WEEKS
Rating:
1Q results modestly below consensus; dividend increased +4.6%
24JAN14 - 12JAN15
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All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
Sector Perform
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• 1Q15 results modestly below expectations. Despite a $4MM favourable
variance in corporate costs, revenue and EBITDA in the seasonally important
1Q period were $227MM (+0.5% YoY) and $93MM (+1.1% YoY), respectively below our estimates of $238MM and $99MM (consensus $232MM and $96MM).
Reported YoY growth includes the contribution from H&S. The main reason
for the negative variance versus our estimate was lower-than-expected (high
margin) advertising revenue, reflecting general softness in the ad market across
all verticals, particularly in Women and Family. Consolidated EBITDA margins
were 41.1% versus our forecast of 41.4%, and adjusted EPS was $0.60 versus our
$0.67 estimate (consensus $0.65).
• Dividend increase in-line with expectation; guidance unchanged. The company
announced a +4.6% dividend increase, which was consistent with our
expectation for an increase in the low- to mid single-digit range (we modeled
+5%). As expected, the company did not provide an update to F2015 guidance
(EBITDA in the $300-320MM range and FCF of ">$180MM"). Given the 1Q results,
Corus would need to grow EBITDA nearly +10% in the remainder of the year in
order to hit the midpoint of EBITDA guidance at $310MM (and nearly +5% to
reach the low-end of guidance at $300MM).
Industry Comments
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Bulking Up - RBC's Weekly Review
Melissa Oliphant (Associate)
416 842 4126; [email protected]
• What's Hot: China's December coal imports came in at an 11-month high of 27.2
Mt, up 29.4% MoM, on pre-winter purchasing and ahead of the implementation
of import restrictions on trace element content, effective January 1. However,
December imports were down 23.2% YoY, continuing the weak YoY trend for
China's coal imports.
• What's Not: Thermal coal prices fell to fresh multi-year lows, with FOB
Richards Bay and European-delivered CIF ARA down 4.7% and 8.7% this week,
respectively.
• Our View: There have been recent supportive moves in oil, currency, and freight
rates for iron ore producers, which have helped to offset the fall in iron ore
prices through Q4 2014. These factors may provide some near term support for
earnings for iron ore miners; however, we do expect oil and freight to recover in
the second half of the year, and further supply increases will keep iron ore prices
under pressure, leaving a challenging medium term outlook.
• Met coal prices declined in Asia including premium LV HCC FOB Australia (-0.4%).
• Thermal coal: FOB Newcastle, FOB Richards Bay, and CIF ARA prices fell by 1.8%,
4.7%, and 8.7%, respectively.
Chris Drew, CFA (Analyst)
+61 2 9033 3060; [email protected]
Ken Tham, CFA (Analyst)
+61 2 9033 3064; [email protected]
Steve Bristo, CFA (Associate)
(416) 842-7826; [email protected]
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
IODEX falls back below $70/t as Chinese steel prices decline
7
• Iron ore retreated below $70/t again this week. IODEX fell by 4.5% to $68.50/t
after a decline in Chinese billet prices and rebar futures deepened the market’s
bearish iron ore sentiment.
• Steel: HRC and rebar prices were mixed in North America but declined in Europe
and China.
• Iron ore and coal freight rates declined, most notably Aus-China iron ore freight
(-13.7%).
Dan MacDonald, CFA (Analyst)
(403) 299-2394; [email protected]
Matthew McKellar (Associate)
403 299 5045; [email protected]
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
Canadian Oilfield Services – Impact of accelerated U.S. rig decline
forecast
• We have re-calibrated our US land rig count forecast to reflect our view that the
US land rig count bottoms in mid-2Q15 (from 3Q15 previously). We expect HZ
rigs to drop 21% y/y in 2015 (from ~10% previously).
• Total US land rig count is forecast to be down 50% peak-to-trough in 2015 (no
change to our view), with the HZ count down 42% and non-HZ down 73%. On an
YE15 exit rate basis, total US land rigs are now forecast to be down 34% y/y, with
HZ down 21% and Non-HZ down 67%.
• We have increased our forecast pricing decline in Canada from 5% to 10% q/q in
Q1/15, driven by industry feedback and similar to what is being seen in the U.S.
market. Our Canadian activity forecast is unchanged, calling for an acceleration
of y/y declines in drilling activity through Q3/15, bottoming in late Q3/early Q4
2015.
Geoffrey Kwan, CFA (Analyst)
(604) 257-7195; [email protected]
Correction: Canadian Diversified Financials
Charan Sanghera (Associate)
604 257 7657; [email protected]
• 2014 summary: Outperformers were mortgage stocks (low rates helping strong
housing activity, housing downturn fears that did not materialize) and private
equity stocks (value creation, US$ exposure). Asset managers (excluding Gluskin
Sheff) surprisingly underperformed despite a positive backdrop.
• Best ideas (in order): (1) Tricon; (2) CI Financial; and (3) Genworth Canada.
Other Outperform rated stocks include GS, IGM, EFN, POW and PWF.
• Upgrading Onex to Sector Perform (was Underperform); 12-month price target
to $74 (was $66).
• Price target and estimate revisions. See Exhibit 1 for estimate changes. 12month price target changes: AGF.b ($8, was $10); CF ($8.50, was $11); CIX ($37,
was $38); EFN ($19, was $20); EQB ($71, was $75); FN ($24, was $26); GS ($35,
was $36); HCG ($55, was $59); IFC ($88, was $84); IGM ($50, was $51); MIC ($47,
was $50); OCX ($74, was $66); TCN ($11, was $10.50); and X ($54, was $55).
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
Q4/14 preview and best ideas
Paul C. Quinn (Analyst)
(604) 257-7048; [email protected]
Forest Products
Hamir Patel (Analyst)
(604) 257-7145; [email protected]
• NA lumber production increased 0.1% y/y to 5.0 billion board feet (Bbf) in
October (+2.7% 10-Mo YTD) – US lumber production (+4.7% YTD) was 2.8 Bbf in
October, up 1.5% y/y and 7.0% higher m/m. US production rose 9.0% m/m in the
West and 5.1% in the South. Canadian lumber production (+0.3% YTD) was 1.5%
lower y/y at 2.2 Bbf and up 3.1% m/m (+2.5% m/m in British Columbia and 3.8%
higher in the rest of Canada). NA lumber consumption is tracking 5.4% higher YTD
(+7.1% in the US but 3.0% lower in Canada). US lumber consumption increased
8.8% y/y to 3.9 Bbf in October (77% of NA production).
• NA lumber shipments increased 3.1% y/y (+3.6% 10-Mo YTD) – US shipments
were 1.0% higher y/y (+6.0% m/m). Canadian shipments increased 5.9% y/y
(+6.5% m/m). NA exports to China of 328 mmfbm were down 21.3% y/y (+27.6%
m/m). NA exports to Japan were 28.7% lower y/y (+10.2% m/m). US softwood log
exports to China were down 47.1% y/y and exports to Japan fell 9.7%. Japanese
demand has slowed since the 3% increase to their VAT tax in April.
• Lower NA operating rates m/m – The US sawmill operating rate declined from
85% in September to 83% in October (+100 bps from a year ago). The Canadian
sawmill operating rate decreased from 82% in September to 77% in October
(-300 bps from a year ago).
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Lumber Stats: production growth in 2014 almost entirely out of the US
8
Stephen D. Walker (Analyst)
(416) 842-4120; [email protected]
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Q1/15 Global Mining Best Ideas Portfolio
• We are publishing our weekly update to our Global Mining Best Ideas portfolio.
For the quarter-to-date, the Q1/15 Global Mining Best Ideas List is up 1%
compared to the MSCI World Metals & Mining Index, which is down 2%.
Dan Rollins, CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-9893; [email protected]
Sam Crittenden, P.Eng., CFA (Analyst)
(416) 842-7886; [email protected]
Timothy Huff (Analyst)
+44 20 7653 4866; [email protected]
Des Kilalea (Analyst)
+44 20 7653 4538; [email protected]
Chris Drew, CFA (Analyst)
+61 2 9033 3060; [email protected]
Jonathan Guy (Analyst)
+44 20 7653 4603; [email protected]
Andrew D. Wong (Analyst)
(416) 842-7830; [email protected]
Paul Hissey (Analyst)
+61 3 8688 6512; [email protected]
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Nathan Piper (Analyst)
+44 131 222 3649; [email protected]
RBC International E&P Daily
Al Stanton (Analyst)
+44 131 222 3638; [email protected]
PMO.L: Financial Resilience Underlined; DETNOR.OL: Q4 production ahead of
expectation; Crude Price Decks; TLW.L: Trading Statement – 15th January; more
questions than answers?; GPX.L: General meeting rescheduled for February
Haydn Rodgers, CA (Associate)
+44 131 222 4911; [email protected]
PMO; DETNOR; TLW; GPX
Victoria McCulloch, CA (Analyst)
+44 131 222 4909; [email protected]
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Dan MacDonald, CFA (Analyst)
(403) 299-2394; [email protected]
Turnin' to the Right - Canadian Oilfield Services Insights
Matthew McKellar (Associate)
403 299 5045; [email protected]
The Canadian OFS group continued to suffer in December through declining
commodity prices and decreased expectations for 2015 E&P capital spending.
We will watch more intently for budget revisions from E&P companies as lower
prices persist, especially from those who released earlier guidance on 2015 capex
predicated on higher commodity price assumptions.
All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
Wrapping up a turbulent 2014
We note several important trends in activity levels in 2014:
• Increased service intensity per well (+ve CEU, SES): Average metres per well
and days to drill, two key indicators of service intensity, trended higher in 2014.
Average days to drill was up 7% and metres drilled per well was up 11%.
• Strong horizontal activity (+ve PHX, CEU, SES): Horizontal drilling activity rose 10%
in 2014, driven by a trend towards a rising amount of horizontal wells as a share
of total wells drilled. However, while the relative share of total wells still seems
to be increasing, we noted some deceleration in 2H14, and the absolute level
will decline in 2015.
• Fracturing-intensive gas wells support completions activity: Gas well completions
were up 31% y/y, while oil well completions fell 6%. In aggregate, total well
completions were essentially flat y/y. Given that gas wells are more fracturing
intensive than oil wells, this was a net positive for pressure pumping demand.
9
• Gas wells drive licensing: Renewed interest in natural gas drove gas well licensing
up 47% y/y, helping buoy total licensing to an increase of 12% y/y.
Fraser Phillips, P.Eng. (Analyst)
(416) 842-7859; [email protected]
Uranium Weekly
Steve Bristo, CFA (Associate)
(416) 842-7826; [email protected]
• Ux spot price indicator was up $0.15/lb to $35.40/lb and TradeTech was down
$0.10/lb to $35.40/lb.
• Ux term price indicator was unchanged at $49.00/lb, and TradeTech was
unchanged at $50.00/lb (quoted monthly at month-end).
• Uranium Participation Corp. (UPC) traded up 1.7% over the past week to close at
C$5.24 per share (vs. S&P/TSX -0.9%).
• We estimate UPC is discounting a uranium price of $32.96/lb, a 6.9% discount to
spot. Last week we estimated that UPC discounted a uranium price of $32.86/lb,
a 6.8% discount to the then-prevailing spot price.
• We rate Uranium Participation Corp. Outperform with a target price of C$6.00
per share
Thomas Klein (Associate)
(416) 842-5339; [email protected]
All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
Ux spot price up $0.15/lb to $35.40/lb; TradeTech down $0.10/lb to $35.40/lb
10
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Non-U.S. analyst disclosure
Nathan Piper;Al Stanton;Haydn Rodgers;Victoria McCulloch;Dan MacDonald;Matthew McKellar;Paul C. Quinn;Hamir Patel;Greg
Pardy;Franz Hargo Muljo;Drew McReynolds;Jie He;Haran Posner;Fraser Phillips;Melissa Oliphant;Chris Drew;Ken Tham;Steve
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RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
As of 31-Dec-2014
Rating
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686
112
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40.47
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Investment Banking
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Count
Percent
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32.33
137
19.97
6
5.36
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