Ukerapport 20.01.2015 Ansvarlig: Paal Kolberg| +47 24 14 74 65| [email protected] Disclaimer IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: This note (the 'Note') must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no. 876 . The Note is for clients only, not for publication, and has been prepared for information purposes only by SpareBank 1 Markets AS, an investment firm organized under the laws of Norway. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. Please note that this comment is not an individual investment advice. If you would like to receive investment advice suitable for you, please contact your broker at SpareBank 1 Markets AS. SpareBank 1 Markets AS Olav Vs gate 5 0161 Oslo + 47 24 14 74 00 www.sb1markets.no Makrokalender Date Mon Time Jan 19 All Day Tue Jan 20 Wed Jan 21 Tentative Tentative Day 1 Thu Jan 22 Day 2 Fri Jan 23 Day 3 Country 05:30 Japan Event Revised Industrial Production m/m Actual -0.5% Forecast -0.5% Previous -0.6% 06:00 Japan Consumer Confidence 38.8 38.6 37.7 10:00 Eurozone USA 03:00 China China China China China 08:00 Eurozone 11:00 Eurozone Eurozone 16:00 USA USA Japan 05:30 Japan Japan ALL 14:30 USA USA 06:00 Japan ALL 13:45 Eurozone 14:30 Eurozone USA 15:00 USA 16:00 Eurozone 16:30 USA 17:00 USA 02:35 Japan 02:45 China 10:00 Eurozone Eurozone ALL 10:30 UK 15:45 USA 16:00 USA USA Current Account Bank Holiday GDP q/y Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y NBS Press Conference Retail Sales y/y German PPI m/m German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment FOMC Member Powell Speaks NAHB Housing Market Index Monetary Policy Statement All Industries Activity m/m BOJ Press Conference WEF Annual Meetings Building Permits Housing Starts BOJ Monthly Report WEF Annual Meetings Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Unemployment Claims HPI m/m Consumer Confidence Natural Gas Storage Crude Oil Inventories Flash Manufacturing PMI HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI WEF Annual Meetings Retail Sales m/m Flash Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales CB Leading Index m/m 18.1B 22.7B 19.5B 7.2% 15.7% 7.4% 7.3% 15.8% 7.2% 11.7% -0.3% 40.1 37.6 11.7% 0.0% 34.9 31,80 58 57 0.1% -0.1% 1.06M 1.04M 1.05M 1.03M 0.05% 0.05% 301K 0.4% -11 49.5 51.0 52.1 316K 0.6% -11 -236B 5.4M 52.0 49.6 50.6 51.6 -0.6% 54.1 5.08M 0.5% 1.6% 53.9 4.93M 0.6% Kilde: Sparebank1 Markets Research og Forex Factory 3 20.01.2015 Oslo Børs- P/E OBX Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 4 20.01.2015 Oslo Børs- P/B OBX Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 5 20.01.2015 Ukegraf: Bankene venter økte utlånsmarginer mot bedrifter i 1Q15 …vi tror den ventede nedgangen i margin på boliglån motvirkes av lavere renter Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 6 20.01.2015 Rom for å kutte boligrenten 60-70bps i 2015 uten marginfall …ettersom NIBOR faller fra 1.7% høsten 2014 til under 1.0% sommeren 2015. Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 7 20.01.2015 Markedet venter at NIBOR faller fra dagens 1.4% til 0.9% sommeren 2015 …og forblir lave gjennom 2016 => boligrentene skal videre ned, flere kutt ventes uten lavere margin Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 8 20.01.2015 Blandet utvikling for bankaksjer i forrige uke …svenske og europeiske banker +2%. Norske banker i minus på oljefrykt Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 9 20.01.2015 DNB «kun» -1% etter større fall tidligere i år …SRBANK -7% og MING -5% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 10 20.01.2015 DNB -5% i 2015, etterfulgt av europeisk bank på emisjonsfrykt Regionale sparebanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG. Lokale sparebanker: RING, SBVG, SOAG, TOTG, HELG, SPOG, SADG, NTSG. Våre delindekser for de regionale og lokale bankene er likevektet. Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 11 20.01.2015 Få i pluss i 2015 (lokale banker i overvekt), mange i minus Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 12 20.01.2015 DNB faller relativt til svenske banker …Brent uendret i uken som gikk, men opp fra bunnpunktet på tirsdagen Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 13 20.01.2015 DNB falt for mye relativt til sparebankene? …hentet seg inn noen prosenter relativt sett etter fall i SR og MING Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 14 20.01.2015 Den positive reprisingen av DNB på økte utbytteforventinger brutt i 4Q …lavere oljepris øker kredittrisikoen og reduserer utbytteforventningene Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 15 20.01.2015 Svensk bank priset høyt på sterk utbyttekapasitet og mindre oljeeksponering …sparebankene fortsatt under boken, sammen med europeiske banker Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 16 20.01.2015 Regionale sparebanker på P/B 0.87 på 2014 boken …bedring i prisingen for de lokale også på P/B 0.74 (2014), rabatten kraftig inn i 2014 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 17 20.01.2015 Tapene vil stige fremover, men hvor mye? …punktestimater gir meget sjelden svaret – vi ser på utfallsrommet Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 18 20.01.2015 Med normaliserte tap har bankene ROE på 9 – 12% …høyeste observerte tap siste 15 år (70bps) gir fortsatt ROE over 6% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 19 20.01.2015 P/E blir mer interessant om vi ser den opp mot potensielle tap på utlån …bankene handler 7-9X gitt normaliserte tap på 0.25%. Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 20 20.01.2015 CDS: Kredittspreadene flate i januar for DNB og svensk bank 21 CDS = Pris på konkursbeskyttelse for senior lån i basispunkter. Merk at det kan være store avvik mellom CDS markedet og cashmarkedet Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 20.01.2015 Betydelig inngang siste året for fondsobligasjoner i 2014, selv etter spreadutgang i 4Q Fondsobligasjoner i Norge - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type 800 Gammel type fondsobligasjoner teller 100% i 2013, 80% i 2014 og deretter 10%-poeng årlig utfasing. 700 Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse Bank 21-Jan-14 Tysnes Spb 20m 450 22-Jan-14 Sandnes Spb 300m 375 25-Feb-14 BN Bank ASA 400m 375 05-Mar-14 Eika Boligkreditt AS 200m 350 18-Mar-14 Bank 1 Oslo Akershus AS 200m 350 35m 350 27-May-14 Verd Boligkreditt AS 600 Sannsynlig at utstedelser i 2009/10 kjøpes tilbake 500 400 300 200 100 0 Dato Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets jan/ 04 mai/ 05 okt/ 06 feb/ 08 jul/ 09 nov/ 10 apr/ 12 aug/ 13 des/ 14 Gammel type Gammel type med reg. call Ny konvertibel med reg. call Ny type med reg. call Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang 13-Jun-14 Soknedal Spb 20m 400 18-Jun-14 Fana Spb 200m 325 25-Jun-14 Spb 1 Boligkreditt AS 350m 310 27-Jun-14 Hjelmeland Spb 50m 380 03-Jul-14 Eika Gruppen AS 100m 350 27-Jun-14 Eiendomskreditt AS 35m 330 09-Jul-14 Storebrand Bank ASA 75m 330 10-Jul-14 Lillestrøm Spb 60m 350 21-Aug-14 Strømmen Spb 50m 350 03-Sep-14 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA Grong Spb 50m 35m 370 335 26-Sep-14 Spb Øst 150m 280 30-Sep-14 Spb 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg 50m 300 14-Oct-14 Aurksog SB 120m 300 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 290 23-Oct-14 SB1 BV 100m 290 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 305 16-Dec-14 Rørosbanken 50m 305 19-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog Spb 50m 330 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 22 20.01.2015 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) Verdsettelse enkeltbanker - fortsatt oppside fra moderate nivåer …sparebankene i intervall fra P/B 0.60 til 0.99. Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 23 20.01.2015 P/E: DNB og Sparebankene er billige på våre estimater for 2014 …svensk bank handler 11-14X våre 2014E Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 24 20.01.2015 Kursmål og anbefalinger Aksje Anbf. TP Valuta Analytiker: Nils Christian Øyen og Odd Weidel DNB Kjøp 130 NOK Nordea Kjøp 105 SEK Handelsbanken Nøytral 380 SEK Swedbank Nøytral 190 SEK SEB Nøytral 100 SEK Storebrand Salg 28 NOK SpareBank 1 SR-Bank Kjøp 67 NOK SpareBank 1 SMN Kjøp 68 NOK SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Kjøp 47 NOK Sparebanken Møre Kjøp 245 NOK Sparebanken Vest Kjøp 60 NOK Sparebank 1 Østfold Akershus Kjøp 135 NOK Sandnes Sparebank Nøytral 110 NOK Totens Sparebank Nøytral 78 NOK Helgeland Sparebank Nøytral 57 NOK SpareBank 1 Buskerud-Vestfold Kjøp 56 NOK SpareBank 1 Ringerike-Hadeland Kjøp 165 NOK SpareBank 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Nøytral 107 NOK Sparebanken Øst Kjøp 55 NOK Bank Norwegian Kjøp 30 NOK Pareto Bank Kjøp 1750 NOK yA Bank Kjøp 31 NOK Bank 2 Kjøp 5,5 NOK Gjensidige Nøytral 122 NOK Analytiker: Kristoffer Dahlberg Statoil Nøytral 130 NOK Det Norske Oljeselskap Nøytral 30 NOK Lundin Petroleum Nøytral 100 SEK DNO International Kjøp 21 NOK Norwegian Energy Company Under review NOK Panoro Energy Kjøp 2,5 NOK North Energy Kjøp 4 NOK Questerre Energy Nøytral 2 NOK InterOil E&P Under review NOK Estimat Brent for 2015 60 USD/fat Estimat Brent for 2016 75 USD/fat Aksje Anbf. TP Analytiker: Tore A. Tønseth Marine Harvest Nøytral 120 Bakkafrost Nøytral 180 Lerøy Seafood Group Nøytral 310 Grieg Seafood Kjøp 40 Salmar Nøytral 140 Norway Royal Salmon Kjøp 80 Telenor Kjøp 165 Q-Free Under review Nordic Semiconductor Under review Analytiker: Robert Andre Jensen Atwood Oceanics Salg 25 Awilco Drilling Salg 60 Diamond Offshore Salg 25 ENSCO Salg 25 Fred. Olsen Energy Salg 50 North Atlantic Drilling Salg 1,5 Noble Corp. Salg 14 Northern Offshore Kjøp 6 Ocean Rig Nøytral 10 Odfjell Drilling Kjøp 20 Pacific Drilling Nøytral 5,5 Rowan Companies Nøytral 22 Seadrill Salg 11 Sevan Drilling Salg 0,5 Songa Offshore Salg 1,25 Transocean Salg 15 Analytiker: Lars-Daniel Westby Norwegian Air Shuttle Kjøp 400 Kongsberg Gruppen Nøytral 150 Orkla Salg 43 Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines Salg 79 Schibsted Kjøp 700 Yara Kjøp 450 Norsk Hydro Kjøp 59 Valuta NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK USD NOK USD USD NOK USD USD NOK USD NOK USD USD USD NOK NOK USD Aksje Anbf. TP Analytiker: Carl Oskar Thoen Kongsberg Automotive Kjøp 8,4 REC Silicon Nøytral 1,4 Polaris Media Nøytral 27 Analytiker: Kjetil Haukås Prosafe Salg 22 Deep Sea Supply Under review Siem Offshore Under review Havila Shipping Under review Solstad Offshore Under review DOF Under review NAO Under review Farstad Shipping Under review Analytiker: Christopher Møllerløkken Petroleum Geo-Services Salg 37 TGS-Nopec Geophysical Salg 140 CGGVeritas Salg 5 Polarcus Salg 0,5 Electromagnetic Geoservices Nøytral 4 Dolphin Group Salg 2 Spectrum Salg 25 Aker Kjøp 190 Subsea 7 Kjøp 100 Aker Solutions Salg 30 Analytiker: Peder Nicolai Jarlsby Flex LNG Kjøp 11,3 Hoegh LNG Kjøp 104 NOK NOK NOK USD NOK NOK NOK Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Equity Research 25 20.01.2015 Valuta NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK USD NOK NOK NOK EUR NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK NOK Ukeporteføljen Ukeporteføljen I forrige uke hadde vi en svak utvikling i ukeporteføljen Ukeporteføljen sammenlignet med OSEBX indeksen. Porteføljen var ned 1,5 % Norwegian Air Shuttle mot en nedgang på 0,3 % på OSEBX indeks. Denne uken tar vi ut Yara International Norsk Hydro MHG og inn BWLPG. BW LPG Aksje INN Aksje UT BW LPG Marine Harvest Kongsberg Automotive Hoegh LNG NAS- Norwegian Air Shuttle Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 400. YAR- Yara International Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 450. NHY- Norsk Hydro Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål på NOK 59. BW LPG KOA- Kongsberg Automotive Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 8,40. HLNG- Hoegh LNG Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 104. Klikk for på selskapsnavn for siste analyse Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 27 20.01.2015 Ukeporteføljen – avkastning Ukeportefølje Pris INN 287,04 338,18 40,96 52,19 83,72 6,13 Norwegian Air Shuttle Yara International Norsk Hydro BW LPG Hoegh LNG Kongsberg Automotive Dato INN Siste omsatt Utvikling 06.01.15 295 2,77 % 06.01.15 400,6 18,46 % 06.01.15 41,38 1,02 % 20.01.15 52,6 0,79 % 13.01.15 79,75 -4,74 % 13.01.15 6,19 0,91 % OSEBX og ukeporteføljen* Historisk avkastning* Ukeporteføljen Siden start (25 mars 09) 163,1 % Hittil i år 0,4 % Siste måned 0,4 % Siste uke -1,5 % OSEBX 148,1 % 0,5 % 0,5 % -0,3 % Meravkastning ukeporteføljen* 380 100,0 % 330 90,0 % 280 70,0 % 230 50,0 % 80,0 % 60,0 % 40,0 % 180 30,0 % 20,0 % 130 80 2009 Portefølje OSEBX 2010 2011 2012 2013 10,0 % 0,0 % 2014 Aksjene i ukeporteføljen vekter likt prosentmessig i porteføljen. Porteføljen blir rebalansert hver gang det gjøres en endring i beholdningen. Ved beregning av inngangskurs og utgangskurs vil vi benytte VWAP etter 1t med handel for OBX aksjer og VWAP etter 3t for aksjer utenfor OBX indeksen tirsdag morgen. 28 *Beregnet på sluttkurser foregående fredag Relativ 14,9 % -0,1 % -0,1 % -1,2 % Disclaimer – Ukeporteføljen IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND CERTIFICATIONS This document provides additional disclosures and disclaimers relevant to research reports and other investment recommendations (“Recommendations”) issued by SpareBank 1 Markets AS (“SpareBank 1 Markets”), cf. the Norwegian Securities Trading Act section 3-10 with further regulations. Standards and supervisory authorities SpareBank 1 Markets complies with the standards for recommendations issued by the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association (www.nfmf.no) and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts. The lead analyst (see front page) is employed by SpareBank 1 Markets, which is legally responsible for this report and is under the supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet). Previous Recommendations For an overview of SpareBank 1 Markets research reports and other investment recommendations regarding the financial instruments of the issuer the past 12 months, including data on changes in such research reports and other investment recommendations, please see SpareBank 1 Markets’ website, www.sb1markets.no (log-in required) Planned updates Unless explicitly stated otherwise in this report, SpareBank 1 Markets expects, but not undertake, to issue updates to this report following the publication of new figures or forecasts by the issuer covered, or upon the occurrence of other events which could potentially have a material effect on it. 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Current recommendations of the Research Department: (refers to Recommendations published prior to this report and required disclosed in accordance with the Securities Trading Regulations section 311 (4) Current recommendations of the Research Department Recommendation Buy Neutral Sell Percent 43.3566% 28.6713% 27.972% Standard research disclaimer All employees of SpareBank 1 Markets are subject to duty of confidentiality towards clients and with respect to inside information. SpareBank 1 Markets operates a system of “Chinese Walls” and other organizational procedures in order to control the flow of information within the firm and minimize conflicts of interest within SpareBank1 Markets and between clients. The Research Department is part of this system. The Research Analysts of SpareBank 1 Markets receive salary and are members of the bonus pool. However no part of the analysts’ salaries or compensations relates to the performance of their recommendations, directly to investment banking services or other services provided by SpareBank 1 Markets or related companies to issuers. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this research accurately reflect(s) the personal views of the analyst(s) principally responsible for this report about the subject securities or issuers, and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. No part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Disclaimer: this document is produced by Paal Kolberg, Equity Sales, and might not reflect the views of SB1 Markets 29 Disclaimer Risks Generally, investments in financial instruments involve risks. For specific risks related to our various recommendations, please see the latest relevant reports. The target prices on companies in the SpareBank 1 Markets Research universe reflect the subjective view of the analyst about the absolute price that financial instruments should trade at, within our six-month recommendation horizon. The target price is based on an absolute valuation approach, which is detailed in our research reports. The target price can differ from the absolute valuation, in accordance with the analyst's subjective view on the trading or cyclical patterns for a particular financial instrument, or a possible discount/premium to reflect factors such as market capitalization, ownership structure and/or changes in the same, and company-specific issues. 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