AmericasBarometer: Topical Brief – March 2, 2015 Amid Low Evaluations of Maduro’s Performance, Tolerance of Regime Critics Grows in Venezuela By Mariana Rodríguez with Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Vanderbilt University N early one year after the arrest of opposition leader and outspoken Figure 1. Average Presidential Approval, 2014 regime critic, Leopoldo López, on charges Dominican Republic of inciting violence during an extensive opposition figure, 71.6 Haiti series of protests in February 2014, another leading 73.9 Ecuador 68.8 El Salvador 67.5 Nicaragua Antonio 66.7 Honduras Ledezma, a close ally of López and mayor of Caracas, has been arrested by the Venezuelan government on conspiracy 65.9 Bolivia 63.1 Panama 62.2 Uruguay 61.8 Chile 61.0 Paraguay 55.8 Guatemala charges in an alleged coup plot against 53.8 Brazil President Maduro. 52.4 Belize 51.2 Guyana 50.9 Colombia In a context marked by presidential Jamaica approval ratings lower than any other Argentina head of state in the Latin America and Trinidad & Tobago 48.9 Peru 47.7 46.3 Mexico 44.5 44.3 Costa Rica Caribbean region (See Figure 1)1 and 37.0 Venezuela looming legislative elections, concerns are 34.3 0 20 40 60 80 Presidential Job Approval mounting over repressive measures by 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Maduro’s administration to silence regime 50.9 Source:  AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2014; v.GM14_0912 critics. In this Topical Brief,2 we assess 1 Figure 1 shows means (not percents) on a 0‐100 scale based on the following question: M1. Speaking in general of the current administration, how would you rate the job performance of the President/Prime Minister? (100) Very good (75) Good (50) Neither good nor bad (25) Bad (0) Very bad. public opinion on presidential approval and support for the political rights of 2 Prior issues of the Insights series can be found at: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights.php. © 2015, Latin American Public Opinion Project www.AmericasBarometer.org regime dissidents in Venezuela using data Figure 2. Average Political Tolerance, 2014 from the 2014 AmericasBarometer.3 Venezuela Maduro’s dismal presidential approval Trinidad & Tobago ratings4 reflect public discontent with the Jamaica Uruguay severe political, social, and economic 58.7 55.4 Argentina 54.9 Chile 54.0 Guyana problems facing Venezuela, including 53.5 Brazil 52.9 Dominican Republic inflation rates reaching an estimated 68% and rising (Romero and Gupta 2015), 51.1 Haiti 50.0 Belize 49.9 Paraguay widespread scarcity of basic goods, and the 49.7 Mexico 47.7 Costa Rica second highest homicide rate in the world 47.0 Colombia 47.0 Nicaragua (Medina 2015). This problem‐plagued 46.8 Honduras climate has fueled a growing call by 43.3 Peru 42.8 El Salvador opposition leaders and activists for citizens to voice their grievances and demand 42.1 Ecuador 40.9 Bolivia 40.7 Panama 32.1 Guatemala change from the government. 29.5 0 Within 61.8 60.4 20 40 60 Tolerance this context, the 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) embattled Source:  AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2014; v.GM14_0912 President Maduro’s administration has taken a stern stance toward government between 2015). Other prominent opposition leaders government security forces and street and activists have been accused of demonstrators during last year’s wave of conspiracy, coup plotting, and other protests left over 40 people dead, hundreds machinations. In the case of Maria Corina injured, and thousands arrested (Silva and Machado, these accusations resulted in the Chinea 2014). In addition to Ledezma’s removal of her seat at the National recent arrest, 33 out of 50 opposition Assembly (e.g., Schaefer Muñoz and mayors across Venezuela face legal charges Minaya 2015). related to their involvement in the February 2014 protests (Romero and Gupta What levels of public support exist for government efforts to silence regime critics dissidents. Violent clashes 3 Funding for the March 2014 Venezuela data collection came from Vanderbilt, the University of Tennessee, and the Tinker Foundation. Funding for the rest of the 2014 AmericasBarometer mainly came from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Important sources of support were also the Inter‐American Development Bank (IADB) and Vanderbilt. This Brief is solely produced by LAPOP and the opinions expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of USAID or any other supporting agency. 4 The Economist (2015) reports current approval ratings for President Maduro at below 20%. in Venezuela? Very little, according to data from the LAPOP AmericasBarometer. In fact, Venezuelans rank as the most supportive of regime critics’ political rights in comparison with citizens of other Latin American and Caribbean countries, as seen in Figure 2. The Political Tolerance © 2015, Latin American Public Opinion Project www.AmericasBarometer.org measure is an index of support for the right of regime critics to protest, vote, exercise freedom of expression, and run for public Figure 3. Average Political Tolerance by Dimension, Venezuela 2014 office.5 Peaceful Demonstrations Moreover, levels of political tolerance 2014 2012 have increased. Figure 3 displays average support for each act within the tolerance index and compares averages across 2012 2014 every dimension. In 2014, a year in which 2012 Venezuelan politics fell into a crisis 2014 government and by political violence, 2012 to peacefully demonstrate and voice their opinions, vote, 59.1 51.1 Run for Public Office marked by widespread protests against the dissenters 56.2 Freedom of Expression 2014 of 63.1 2012 have grown more tolerant since 2012 on right 59.3 Right to Vote and 2014. As can be observed, Venezuelans citizens expressed more support for the 67.1 58.0 50.8 0 20 40 60 80 Average 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source:  AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2012-2014; v.VEN14ts_0724 and run for public office. These data suggest that strident moves against opposition leaders, to the extent that they appear to be moves designed to silence regime critics, may further undermine President Maduro’s popularity. As one would expect, there is a strong negative relationship between presidential approval and support for the rights of regime critics to exercise civil liberties in Venezuela. Figure 4 shows that political tolerance is highest for those who give the most negative evaluations of President Maduro’s work in office (71.9 units, or 5 The political tolerance index, scaled 0 (least tolerant) to 100 (most tolerant), is based on the following questions: D1. There are people who only say bad things about the (country) form of government, not just the incumbent government but the system of government. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people’s right to vote? D2. How strongly do you approve or disapprove that such people be allowed to conduct peaceful demonstrations in order to express their views? D3. Still thinking of those who only say bad things about the (country) form of government, how strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people being permitted to run for public office? D4. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people appearing on television to make speeches? The index has a Cronbach’s alpha score of .90. degrees, of tolerance on the 0‐100 scale), while it is lowest among those who rate his job performance as “very good” (41 units). This sharp difference – representing a gap that spans 1/3 of the 100‐point scale, from 71.9 to 41, is illustrative of the high levels of polarization in Venezuelan public opinion. It is relevant to point out the degree of this polarization: while 54% of respondents evaluate President Maduro’s job performance as “bad” or “very bad,” © 2015, Latin American Public Opinion Project www.AmericasBarometer.org only 19% think he is doing a “good” or Figure 4. Average Tolerance by Presidential Job Performance Evaluations, Venezuela 2014 “very good” job. 80 Overall, these results suggest that to the 71.9 65.0 extent that President Maduro’s popularity 56.9 60 continues to fall, so too will support for 50.7 Tolerance 41.0 actions perceived as attacks on the right of his opponents to participate in politics. Given the platform that the impending 40 20 legislative elections and continued protest calls by opposition leadership provide for 0 Very Good critics to voice their discontent with the Good Neither Good nor Bad Bad Very Bad Presidential Job Performance 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Chavista regime, President Maduro appears Source:  AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2014; v.VEN14ts_0724 to be in a bind: maneuvers to silence regime opponents may be aimed at maintaining political power, but these tactics are unpopular, and likely Silva, Jorge, and Eyanir Chinea. May 8, 2014. “Venezuela arrests hundreds of youths in increasingly so. crackdown on protests.” Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/08/us‐ References venezuela‐protests‐raids‐ idUSBREA470H420140508 Medina, Oscar. Jan. 31, 2015. “We Continue Killing.” El Universal: http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional‐y‐ Dr. Mariana Rodríguez is a Program Coordinator at the Latin politica/150131/we‐continue‐killing American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at Vanderbilt University. She can be reached at Romero, Simon, and Girish Gupta. Feb. 22, [email protected] 2015. “Amid a Slump, a Crackdown for Venezuela.”The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/23/world/am ericas/amid‐venezuelas‐economic‐chaos‐a‐ Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister is Director of the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and Associate Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. She can be reached at [email protected] political‐crackdown.html?emc=eta1&_r=0 Full results of the 2014 AmericasBarometer and previous Schaefer Muñoz, Sara, and Ezequiel Minaya. rounds can be consulted on‐line at www.LapopSurveys.org. Feb. 24, 2015. “Venezuela Cracks Down on Dissent.”The Wall Streeet Journal: The full data set is available for on‐line analysis or download (in SPSS and Stata formats) at no cost. http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela‐spat‐ gathers‐pace‐1424817126 © 2015, Latin American Public Opinion Project www.AmericasBarometer.org