Future Strategic leaders' Congress
M Iitime Hashpornts: Aus ralia's Critic I Vuln r brhti
22-24 May 2015
DELEGATE'S HANDBOOK
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Australian Government
Department of Defence
Congress Program
Securitys Future Strategic Leaders '
of prorno ung regional sta bility and
urage innovative tlunki ng ab out o ur
to foste r- tile next generat ion of
saders' Program was est ablis hed by
eet the second core goa l. Previous
se two goals to become th e prem ie r
e valuable learning expenences .
_11
setting. rnvite a numb er of sec urity
unger practrt ioners and resea rc hers
a tOP iCthat is Important for au. We
and stimul atin g. Given the ran ge of
tile tOPICS at hand we emphas ise til e
making it mem orable fo r all.
ateful to OU t guest presen ters a nd
me from thei r- exceptio nal ly bu sy
rth us, We also th ank our spo nsors .
nd the Noetic Group for their
forward to work ing wit h you ove r the
Friday 22 May 2015
1700-1800
Arrival, registration and unpack
1800-1830
Pre-dinner drinks
1830-1 930
Dinner
1930-1940
1940-2035
2035-2135
2135-
London Shed
Outside the Mess
Mess
London Shed MrPeter Nicholson AO I Mr
Drew McKinnie I Mr Brett
Biddington AM, Institute For
Regional Security
Session #1 : Scene setting London Shed Mr Lee Cordner AM. University
of Adelaide
London Shed CORE Andrew Gough RANR,
Keynote Address
Director General Navy Capability
Representing Chief of Navy
Plans and Engagement
and Q&A
Fireside drinks and discussions
Welcome and weekend
overview
Saturday 23 May 2015
0730-0830
Breakfast
Mess
Session #2: Why are SLoG London Shed Mr Peter Malpas, Braemar ACM
0830-0930
critical to our national
Shipbroking
security and prosperity?
Dr Sanu Kainikara, Air Power
Development Centre
0930-0950
Session #2 Q&A
London Shed
0950-1 010
Morn ing Tea
Mess
1010-11 10
Session #3 : What are the London Shed RADM (Rtd) Simon Cullen AM ,
threats to Australia's
CSC
SLoG?
Dr Sanu Kainikara, Air Power
Development Centre
1110-1125
Session #3 Q&A
1125·1130
Coffee break
(br- ing back to London shed)
London Shed and break-out rooms
11 30-1230
Syndicate Session #1
Mess
1230-1330
Lunch
1330-1430
Session #4. Global and
London Shed Mr Ian Biggs, Assistan t
Secretary, Departmen t of
Regional: Australia. South
Foreign Affairs and Trade
East Asia and SLoe
BRIG Michael Mahy, Military
Strategy, Department of Defence
1430-1500
Session #4 Q&A
1500-1700
Aftern oon tea then fre e time
1700-1800
Syndicate session #2
London Shed
Congress Program
Speakers and IFRS Directors
Saturday 23May 2015 cant
1800-1900 Dinner
Mess
1900-1945 Session #6: Best practices, London Shed
challenges and lessons
from international
partnering in the AsiaPacific region and Q&A
1945-
Conversations in the breezeway
Mr Brett Biddington AM
Sunday 24Mal 2015
0730-0830 Breakfast
0830-0930 Key Note Address an d
Q&A
0930-0935
0935-1 030
1030-1100
1100-1130
11 30-1150
11 50-1300
Director. Institute For Regional Seq
Dr Jennifer Moroney, RAND
Australia
London Shed area
Mess
London Shed Mr Michael Pezzullo, Secretary,
Department Immigration and
Border Protection
(bring back to London shed)
London Shed Prof Carl Thayer, University of
New South Wales, AD FA
Tea I Coffee break
Session #7: What is the
future of Australia's
maritime security and SLo C
through our region? and
Q&A
Mess
Momin.9. Tea
London Shed
Syndicate session 2 cont
I Panel Q&A
London Shed
Congress Wrap-up
Lunch
Mess
Pack up & depart
Brett Biefdington is the founder of a
specialises in space and cyber 5
national ea
member
Envir onme
Treasurer ,
Security w
addresses
that Austral
He is the II
Associat ion
co111mittee
Australia'
scrence. t
(STEM) ecu
Between 2
Systems' global space team.
In 20 02 Brett left the Royal Austral:
23 years of service. He wa s an I
moving into capability developme
control. intelligence. surveillance.
projects including the Jindalce 0
and unclassified space uuuauves.
He is an Adjunct Professor In the
University in Perth. Western Austral'
Please note tills program was current ill lime of printi ng - Ftittev 1 51'\lla)' 2015
-4
In June 20 12 tle was aornnteo as a
services to the Australian space s
Professor Carl Thayer
Conduct of the Congress
Profes sor Emeritus. University of New South Wales (UNSW)
Aust ralia n Def ence Force Academy (ADFA)
The Congress will IJe conclucted as
plenary and syndicate discussrons.
Carlyle A. Thayer is Professor Emerit us at Til e University of New so utn Wales
(UNSW) at the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA). Canberra. He was
ed ucated at Brown University and holds an M.A.
degree in Southeast ASian St udies f rom Yale and a
PllD in Internat ional Relat ions f rom Til e Aust ralian
Nati onal University. Thayer j orned t il e UNSW in 1 9 79
and tau ght fi rst in The Faculty of Military Studi es at
the The Royal Military College-Duntro on (19 79 -8 5 )
before tra nsferring to UNSW@ADFA. He was given
'leave In ti le nat iona l interest' to take up t il e positi on
of Deputy Chair of t he Depart ment of Regional Stu di es
t the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Stu dies
(APCSS). U.S. Pacif ic Command . Hawaii (199 9 -02 ).
On ret urn to Aust ralia he was secondecl to Deak in
University and ser ved as On-Site Academic Co
oroinator at Westo n c reek for the Defence and
Strat egic Stu dies Course. t he senior course. at the
Centr e for Defence and St rateg ic Stud ies (CDSS) at the Austra lia n Def ence
College (20 02-0 4 ). He later oirecteo Regional Security St udies at th e
Aust ralian Command and Staff College (200 6-07 and 2010).
The program will be broken into a
part icip ants to work closely With
security leaders In a relaxed enWOG
th e weekend include:
.1
•
•
•
A ser ies of presentat ions focus'
facing Australia.
Syndicate sessions - small g
indust ry leaders to discuss a s
Infor ma l discussions and -fire,
We reques t you be at the approona
that t he agenda and discussion can
Discussions off-the-record
The Insti tu te For Regional Security I
111 a t rusted environment; so all dlsc(
be st rictly off-t he-record and under
Dress Code
Professor Thayer was the C, V. Starr Dist mguished Visiting Professor at th e
School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University In
w ashington (20 05 ) and til e Inaugural Frances M. and Stephen F. Fuller
Dist inguished Visit ing Professor at tile Center for International Studies . Ohio
unlversity (200 8) . He is also director of Thayer Consultan cy. a sma ll business
registered in Aust ralia In 200 2 th at provides polit ica l analysis of current
regional security issues and othe r research su pport to selected clients. Thayer
is writes a regular column on Soutlleast Asia defence and security colum nist
for The Dip lomat.
The dress code for the Congress Will
Professor Thayer is til e author of over 50 0 publicauons includrng: so ut neast
Asia: Patterns of Security Cooperat ion . ASPI St rategy Report. Canberra:
Aust ralian Str ategic Poticy Instit ute. 2010 .
Given t he array of dignitaries attend,
organise rs by carrying photographu
of til e Congress and by wearing y o ~
room.
In Confidence
Til e content of th is Delegate Han
correspondence and information
Security remain In-Confidence and
Security
Mobile Phone Coverage
Mobile phone coverage IS 1I111ite
campus. IFRS staff can point you to
you can get a signal (depending on
-20
What is the Future of Australia’s
Maritime Security and SLOC
Through Our Region?
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer
Presentation to Future Strategic Leaders
Program, Kioloa, NSW May 24, 2015
Australia’s Maritime Security
Increase in Merchant Shipping
2003-13
Introduction
• Australia has vital national interests:
– Respect for international law and norms
– Freedom of navigation
– Unimpeded trade
– Freedom of over flight in international
airspace above the maritime domain
– Rules-based regional order – peaceful
settlement of disputes
Maritime Security
• Sea Lines of Communication (SLORC)
– Commercial ships and vessels
– Military ships and vessels
• Economic interdependence
– Destabilising state actions or armed conflicts are
dampened and unlikely
– But there are still risks
Challenges
• China’s rise and military modernisation
– Security dilemma
• Arms build up by regional states
– Military technology and weapons systems
– Growth of submarine fleets
– Cruise missiles
• Hot spots
– East China Sea, Taiwan, South China Sea
Extended Range of
China’s Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles
First and Second Island Chains
• China’s military
modernisation
• Surface
combatants
• Aircraft
carrier(s)
• Conventional
and nuclear
submarines
• Ballistic
missiles
• Cruise missiles
Underwater
sensors
(fixed and
mobile) to
detect
submarine
movements
Yulin Naval
Base, Hainan
Island
Mischief Reef
Fiery Cross Reef
Johnson South Reef
Future Strategic Environment
• Australia’s security environment will be
more challenging over the next 20 years
• Erosion of Australia’s historical military
capability and technological advantages
• Strait line extrapolations of current
trends risky
• What are the plausible alternatives?
Future Strategic Environment
• Strategic uncertainty
• Broader range of possible strategic futures
• Wild cards
– Instability in China and/or Indonesia
– Deterioration of China-US relations
– Eruption of armed conflict
– US abandonment
– Climate change
Southeast Asia: Climate stress,
recent conflict, global trade routes
and choke points
What is the Future of Australia’s
Maritime Security and SLOC
Through Our Region?
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer
Presentation to Future Strategic Leaders
Program, Kioloa, NSW May 24, 2015