From 2014 to 2016: the political environment for Community Housing in Wales Lobbying & Campaigning ● The key to effective lobbying and campaigning is always context: – – – – – – Timing Language Policy Financial Constitutional Political The bit that is decided ● Timing – Everything in the context of 2 General Elections, May 2015 and May 2016 – The next six months will be “nasty, brutish and short” The bit that is decided ● Language – – Standard interpretation stands, just moreso… Everything is polarised, everything is “wrong” The bit that is decided ● Policy – ● For Welfare – – ● Nothing will change for current administrations – fag end of UK Government, Welsh Government course set too UK Government will not deviate from current course Welsh Government committed to mitigating against worst impacts Welfare policy is likely to be one of the biggest political dividing lines in 2015/16 The bit that is decided ● For Housing policy in Wales – – – – – Mobile Homes Act 2013 implementation Housing Wales Act 2014 implementation Renting Homes Wales Bill – consultation on content has just closed Welsh Housing Quality Standard Emphasis on improving the lives of people and families, increasing the housing supply and providing a boost to the Welsh economy. The bit that is decided ● Policy implementation – – – Remains more critical than policy development for both governments In Wales, the key decided bit is that councils will merge – Welsh Government indicated in July they want 12 authorities Published a White Paper (consultation now closed) The bit that is decided ● Policy implementation timeline for delivery – – – – – January 2015: Bill to permit mergers introduced (aim for passage by November 2015) & allow boundary commission to begin work Invited authorities to discuss voluntary merger Autumn 2015: Draft Bill on new structure – will form basis for manifestos in 2016 Second Bill will be passed under Labour 2016-17 Local elections postponed until 2017, which then elect 3 year term for those authorities which merge & 5 for those who do not… The bit that is decided & undecided: Financial ● For the Assembly budget now we have clarity… – 2 year funding deal between Labour & Welsh Lib Dems – provides security – Overall spending is around , down £1.5bn in “real terms” since 2011 Heart of the political divide is around ring fencing for the NHS and overall affordability of the cuts – heaviest cuts for 2 years on local government – The bit that is decided & undecided: Financial ● ● ● ● Homelessness – budget maintained Supporting People Programme - down £5.8m Housing initiatives – increase of £30m Strategic Integrated Impact Assessment shows near doubling in social services expenditure since 2001-02 The bit that is decided & undecided: Financial ● ● ● ● ● Overall settlement still open to a broad debate Seen in context of Scotland & promises to keep funding levels the same Four Welsh parties want an up-to-date assessment of whether Wales loses out under the current funding system (£300m pa?) Income tax raising powers to be devolved under Wales Bill – subject to a referendum (or not…) All part of a new strategy to put Wales on the financial/political map Political / Constitutional – Welsh politics is a reflection of other politics ● The big question about the constitutional future of Wales will be answered not in Cardiff, not in London, but in Edinburgh Constitutional – Undecided? ● ● ● ● ● Fallout from Scottish referendum – precise shape of future UK part of a huge debate For once, the constitution is interesting… We know: Wales will get a reserved powers model We don’t know: what those powers will be, which bits of Silk recommendations implemented, on what timescale, and how offer to Scotland impacts… Lots will depend on something else… Undecided: UK Political ● ● ● And the something else is May 7th 2015 Every opinion poll showing a hung parliament Some movement around percentages – – – ● Biggest % may not necessarily mean biggest number of seats SNP effect on Labour UKIP effect on Labour & Conservatives But for Wales we can expect no more than 5 or 6 seats to change – and the real story will take place in other parts of the UK Partly undecided: Assembly election political ● ● ● Welsh elections are mainly a response to UK politics – 2016 will be influenced more by 2015 than anything that happens in Wales Everything to play for in 2015 – and the shape of the UK Government then is the biggest single factor in defining Welsh politics in 2016 But having said that… Partly undecided: Assembly election political ● Won’t happen Changes to how we campaign The Lobbying Act ● Regulating commercial lobbyists – “the next big scandal” Patrick Mercer was a sting operation by journalists Reducing impact of certain third parties (charities) or certainly making them think again… – ● ● Lib Dems worried about NUS targeting university seats ● Controlling Trade Union spending at election time ● Controlling TU influence in selection processes This is NEW legislation – the Electoral Commission is there to interpret and guide