BLUE
BOOK
Used-Car Market Report
MAY
2013
Automotive Insights from Kelley Blue Book
Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts:
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949.267.4855 | [email protected]
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949.267.4781 | [email protected]
Natalie Kumaratne | Public Relations Coordinator
949.267.4770 | [email protected]
In This Issue:
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:
Used-Car Auction Values Reach Three-Year Low
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS
Used-Car Auction Values Reach Three-Year Low
Used-Car Segments Mostly Down Year-to-Date
Retained Value: Hybrids Continue Steady Decline
$19,000
Used-Car Auction Values Reach Three-Year Low
$18,500
Luxury Values Soften in May
Chrysler Group Auction Values Strong in 2013
$18,000
Mid-Size Vehicles Down Year-Over-Year
Auction Values
$17,500
$17,000
Full-Size Vehicles Continue Strong Decline in May
$16,500
Used Full-Size Pickups Remain Down Year-Over-Year in
the Face of New Truck Incentives, Redesigns
$16,000
Ram Pickups Outperform Full-Size Truck Segment
$15,500
HOT USED-CAR REPORT Used-Car Research Moves Toward Performance
Vehicles
$15,000
$14,500
$14,000
Jan
•
Retained Value: Electric Vehicles Underperform Market
CY 2011
CY 2013
Feb Mar
CY 2012
Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
In May 2013, used-car auction values reached a three-year low.
This year started at a three-year high, but
with no strong appreciation in Q1, auction
values began an early decline in April and
since have declined below levels seen in 2012
and 2011. We expect this depreciation to
continue through the remainder of the year,
with year-end values no more than 3 to 5
percent below where they ended in 2012.
- Alec Gutierrez
Senior market analyst, automotive insights
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Used-Car Segments Mostly Down Year-to-Date
Used-Car Segments Mostly Down Year-to-Date
May 17, 2013 vs. January 1, 2013
2.9%
2.2%
0.8%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
-1.0%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.6%
-1.8%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.4%
-2.4%
-2.7%
-2.9%
Sports Car
Mid-Size Pickup Truck
Subcompact Car
Full-Size Sport Utility
Mid-Size Sport Utility
Minivan
Compact Car
Van
Full-Size Pickup Truck
Exotic
Full-Size Car
Mid-Size Car
Compact Luxury Car
Average
Premium Sports Car
High Performance
Luxury Sport Utility
Luxury Crossover
Near Luxury Car
Full-Size Crossover
Luxury Car
Mid-Size Crossover
Compact Crossover
Premium Luxury Car
Hybrid Car -8.9%
-10%
-3.8%
-4.0%
-4.3%
-5.4%
-5.5%
-5.7%
-5.9%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
As the industry approaches June, only a few segments are maintaining a positive value for the year.
•
Mid-size pickup trucks are doing well due to an increase in housing starts, and subsequently the construction business is back on the rise. The sports car segment also remains ahead of the curve as seasonal trends take effect, making coupes and convertibles more attractive to summer buyers.
“Hybrid vehicles have fallen the most year-to-date, with a nearly 9 percent decline from where the segment started in January,” said Gutierrez. “This drop
can be attributed to the fairly stable fuel prices seen in the first quarter.”
Retained Value: Hybrids Continue Steady Decline
100%
Hybrids Continue Steady Decline
90%
Auction Retention Values
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CY 2011
CY 2013
CY 2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
“2013 has been a year of steady declines for the used-car hybrid market,” said Gutierrez. “Unlike 2012 and 2011, when the market saw fuel prices spike in
Q1 and Q2, which subsequently led to spikes in the hybrid market, the ramp-up in fuel prices in 2013 has not been as strong; thus, hybrid prices have not
appreciated.”
•
As 2013 has not experienced the Q1 and Q2 ramp-up in the hybrid market seen in previous years, Kelley Blue Book expects the current gradual decline
to continue throughout the rest of the year, leaving year-end values not far from where they finished in 2011 and 2012.
2 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
MAY 2013
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Retained Value: Electric Vehicles Underperform Market
MY12 Retained Value (Auction Value/MSRP)
Electric Vehicles Underperform
Market
Hybrid/Alternative
Energy Car
74.4%
Compact SUV/Crossover
71.6%
Compact Car
70.4%
Subcompact Car
70.8%
Industry Average
68.2%
Mid-Size Car
61.9%
Electric Vehicle
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
54.7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
•
On average, used electric vehicles are retaining nearly 55 percent of their original
Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP), while their hybrid counterparts perform
significantly better by holding on to a retained value average of 74.3 percent. •
The hybrid market will continue to outperform the electric vehicle segment for quite some
time, as the infrastructure for electric vehicles remains in its early stages and consumers
still need to grow accustomed to the idea of a purely electric vehicle. Unless a consumer’s
commute is short and consistent, the jump from a combustion vehicle to a fully electric
vehicle is not an easy choice for drivers, especially in cases where the model is priced higher
than the hybrid counterparts.
“It is important to note that while the electric vehicle segment maintains the lowest retained
value, these vehicles often have a much higher MSRP than their gas-powered competitors. With
an average retained value of nearly 55 percent, this actually brings the value of electric vehicles
within a comparable price range to their gas-powered counterparts from a dollar perspective,”
said Gutierrez. “Electric vehicles often have federal and state tax incentives to aid in the purchase
of the vehicle when new; however, these incentives do not exist on the used-car side.”
**Note: This chart only includes vehicles that have been published on KBB.com for at least five weeks. Electric vehicle category contains Chevrolet Volt, Nissan LEAF
and Mitsubishi i-MiEV.
Luxury Values Soften in May
Luxury Values Soften in May 2013
Segment
Entry-Level Luxury Car
High-End Luxury Car
Luxury Car
Luxury Compact SUV/Crossover
Luxury Full-Size SUV/Crossover
Luxury Mid-Size SUV/Crossover
Average
May-13
$22,230
$49,655
$30,595
$27,987
$35,991
$33,784
$28,460
Apr-13
$22,454
$50,018
$30,733
$28,316
$35,902
$34,139
$28,686
% Chg
-1.0%
-0.7%
-0.5%
-1.2%
0.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
•
Auction values of 1- to 3-year-old luxury vehicles fell nearly 1 percent in May,
performing better than the overall market average, which fell 1.8 percent.
•
The luxury full-size SUV/crossover segment was the only segment to gain value in May,
thanks to the Buick Enclave (up 2.2 percent) and the Infiniti QX56 (up 1.1 percent).
The QX56 has been much better received in the market since its bold redesign for the
2011 model year, while the Enclave has proven to be an affordable, worthy competitor
in this space.
•
Looking forward, Kelley Blue Book expects luxury values to decline more steeply in
June, with approximate average depreciation of 1.5 percent, due to seasonality and an
increasing supply of three-year lease returns coming back to the market.
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Chrysler Group Auction Values Strong in 2013
$18,000
Chrysler Auction Values Improving Year-Over-Year
•
Chrysler Group is one of only two manufacturers (the other being
Volvo) whose auction values are up on a year-over-year basis. The
average auction value of $16,750 from Chrysler Group is $258 higher
than last year and more than $1,000 higher than it was in 2011 (for 1to 3-year-old models).
•
The Jeep brand is retaining its value especially well, helping to drive
Chrysler’s stronger values. The Wrangler and Grand Cherokee drove
Jeep’s retained value to 70.9 percent of MSRP, far exceeding the market
average of 63.4 percent.
$17,000
Auction Values
$16,000
$15,000
$14,000
$13,000
$12,000
$11,000
$10,000
CY 2011
CY 2013
CY 2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
3 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MAY 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Mid-Size Vehicles Down Year-Over-Year
Mid-Size Vehicles Down Year-Over-Year
$16,000
$14,000
Auction Values
$12,000
•
Year-over-year, mid-size sedans were down 6.3 percent in April 2013.
•
As of mid-May, mid-size sedans are down 6.2 percent.
•
Overall, mid-size sedans did not experience a significant upward
trend in comparison to last year.
•
The downward trend began early this year (in comparison to last two
years).
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
“Kelley Blue Book field analysts have mentioned that the early downward
trend for mid-size sedans could be a result of lease returns flooding the
auctions,” said Gutierrez. “There is a high volume of Nissan Altima, Honda
Accord and Toyota Camry lease returns.”
$4,000
$2,000
CY 2011
CY 2013
$0
CY 2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Full-Size Vehicles Continue Strong Decline in May
$16,000
Full-Size Vehicles Continue Strong Decline in May
$15,500
•
Year-over-year, full-size sedans were down 4.73 percent in April 2013.
•
As of mid-May, full-size sedans are down 3.91 percent.
Auction Values
$15,000
“Overall, the peak for full-size vehicles occurred early in April this year,
and the values have been on a downward slope ever since,” said Gutierrez. “The downward trend could be a result of mid-size sedans taking away some
of the market share from full-size sedans, since they are easily cross-shopped.”
$14,500
$14,000
$13,500
$13,000
$12,500
$12,000
$11,500
CY 2011
CY 2013
CY 2012
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Used Full-Size Pickups Remain Down Year-Over-Year in the Face of New Truck Incentives,
Redesigns
$20,500
Full-Size Pickups Remain Down Year-Over-Year
•
Year-over-year, the average auction values for 1- to 3-year-old fullsize pickup trucks are down 1.3 percent.
•
Used pickup values likely are under pressure from heavily
incentivized new truck sales and the launch of the new-generation
Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra.
$20,000
$19,500
Auction Values
$19,000
$18,500
$18,000
•
Average auction values for full-size trucks have been gradually
decreasing since the beginning of 2013.
o Year-to-date, full-size pickup trucks are down 2.6 percent.
$17,500
$17,000
$16,500
$16,000
$15,500
CY 2011
CY 2013
CY 2012
$15,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
4 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MAY 2013
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Ram Pickups Outperform Full-Size Truck Segment
Ram Pickups Outperform Full-Size Segment
4-Week Difference ($)
Ram Pickups Outperform Full-Size Segment
Year-to-Date Difference ($)
May 17, 2013 vs. January 1, 2013
Ram Pickup
May 17, 2013 vs. April 19, 2013
$600
Titan
Ram Pickup
Tundra
$66
Silverado
($97)
Silverado
($234)
Avalanche
($14)
Titan
($95)
Tundra
$0
($120)
Ridgeline
($670)
($138)
F-Series
F-Series
($200)
($790)
Sierra
Sierra
Avalanche
Ridgeline
($205)
($805)
($825)
-$1,000
-$800
($305)
-$350
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
-$300
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
Both year-to-date and just in the last four weeks, Ram pickups have retained the most value.
•
The redesigned 2013 Ram pickups have been in the market longer than the new Chevrolet Silverado, and used values have had adequate time to adjust
to the downward pressure a redesign typically brings.
•
The Chevrolet Avalanche decreased the most at auction during the last four weeks. Buyers may be less willing to pay top-dollar for the Avalanche since
2013 is the last production model year, and it has a lower starting MSRP than the 2012 model-year Avalanche.
This commentary focuses on model years 2010 - 2012. The statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to
change without notice. This publication has been prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or
omissions.
5 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
MAY 2013
HOT USED-CAR REPORT:
Used-Car Research Moves Toward Performance Vehicles
Kelley Blue Book’s Hot Used-Car Report captures monthly used-car shopper activity on KBB.com, including a list of the top and bottom movers in the same time
period. Results are provided by the Kelley Blue Book Market Intelligence Team, in an effort to help dealers better understand which used vehicles consumers are looking
at most each month.
•
Share of research toward sports cars increased 9.4 percent among used-car retail traffic. The key driver of this derived from the increased attention
directed to the 2010 Mazda Miata MX-5, which is No. 2 on the model list for share of traffic increases.
•
High-performance vehicles experienced a second consecutive monthly increase in share of traffic. This is a seasonal trend that isn’t driven by any on
particular vehicle in this segment.
•
The 2009 Volkswagen GLI has had the largest share increase of used-car traffic, which also is the last year of the performance-oriented version of the
Jetta. Owners hold this vehicle in high regard for being fun-to-drive as well as fuel efficient.
“It is no surprise that performance-oriented vehicles have been increasing in popularity for the past couple of months,” said Arthur Henry, manager of
market intelligence and market analyst. “As the days get longer, people have more daylight time to have fun in their vehicles. We have been seeing more
interest for import performance vehicles than domestic models. It appears shoppers are choosing vehicles that are better known for handling than power.” Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth
Top/Bottom 10 Models
Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth
Segments
171.4%
2009 VOLKSWAGEN GLI
43.5%
2010 MAZDA MIATA MX-5
17.0%
2010 INFINITI G
Sports Car
9.4%
High Performance
6.5%
Premium Luxury Car
3.8%
Van
3.6%
2011 HONDA CR-V
15.1%
Premium Sports Car
3.3%
2007 JEEP WRANGLER
15.1%
Compact Luxury Car
3.1%
2010 NISSAN MAXIMA
13.7%
Mid-Size Sport Utility
2011 HONDA PILOT
12.9%
Entry Luxury Car
2011 BMW 3 SERIES
10.5%
Mid-Size Pickup Truck
0.8%
Full-Size Pickup Truck
0.5%
2010 NISSAN ALTIMA
9.3%
2010 HONDA CIVIC
6.1%
2009 NISSAN ALTIMA
2007 SCION TC
1.7%
0.9%
Compact Crossover
0.0%
Full-Size Sport Utility
-0.1%
-7.5%
Luxury Sport Utility
-0.2%
-13.5%
Minivan
-0.6%
2009 HONDA FIT
-14.6%
Hybrid Car
-0.7%
2010 CHEVROLET COBALT
-16.1%
Luxury Crossover
-0.9%
2009 HYUNDAI ACCENT
-17.5%
-18.4%
2009 LEXUS IS
-24.4%
2009 CHEVROLET EQUINOX
Mid-Size Car
-0.9%
Full-Size Car
-1.2%
Luxury Car
-1.3%
Compact Car
-1.8%
2009 SATURN OUTLOOK
-27.5%
Mid-Size Crossover
-2.2%
2011 MITSUBISHI GALANT
-28.0%
Full-Size Crossover
-2.6%
2009 INFINITI M
-30.7%
Subcompact Car
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
-20%
-4.3%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website www.kbb.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In and
Suggested Retail Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through
various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies as well as governmental agencies. KBB.com provides consumer
pricing and information on cars for sale, minivans, pickup trucks, sedan, hybrids, electric cars, and SUVs. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of
AutoTrader Group.
6 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
MAY 2013