1. automotive and vehicles

BLUE
BOOK
Market Report
USED
CAR
EDITION
January
2014
Automotive Insights from Kelley Blue Book
Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts:
Chintan Talati | Senior Director, Public Relations
949.267.4855 | [email protected]
Brenna Robinson | Senior Public Relations Manager
949.267.4781 | [email protected]
Natalie Kumaratne | Public Relations Coordinator
949.267.4770 | [email protected]
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:
In
This Issue:
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS
Used-Car Values Start the Year Strong
Used-Car Values Start the Year Strong
Used-Car Values Start the Year Strong
$19,000
Subcompact Cars with Auction Values Under $10,000
Used Luxury Values Begin Year at 2013 Levels; Luxury
Crossovers/SUVs Retain Best Value
$18,500
$18,000
Full-Size SUV Values Begin to Flatten
Auction Values
$17,500
$17,000
Full-Size Pickup Truck Values Begin 2014 Above
Previous Years
$16,500
Mid-Size Vehicles Underperform Market
$16,000
HOT USED-CAR REPORT
The Midwest Deep Freeze Impacts KBB.com Shopper
Activity
$15,500
$15,000
CY 2012
$14,500
Jan
Feb
CY 2013
Mar
Apr
CY 2014
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
One- to 3-year-old vehicles started 2014 off strong with an average auction value of $17,876, or 1 percent higher than at the beginning of calendar
year 2013.
“Despite the strong start, 1- to 3-year-old vehicles have fallen below 2013 figures, but by a minimal $90 on average,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst.
“Auction values in 2014 should follow the seasonal upswing typical in the first quarter and remain in-line with calendar year 2013 values.”
•
Looking back to year-end figures, 1- to 3-year-old vehicles in December of 2013 closed just $55 shy of 2012 auction values, which was in line with
2013 projections.
Subcompact Cars with Auction Values Under $10,000
MY13 Subcompacts Under $10k
$10,000
Mazda MAZDA2
MY13 Auction Value
MY13 Auction Value
Fiat 500
MY12 Subcompacts Under $10k
$9,750
Chevrolet Spark
$9,600
Smart Fortwo
$8,900
Toyota Yaris
$9,700
Kia Rio
$9,700
Hyundai Accent
$9,600
Scion iQ
$9,250
Ford Fiesta
$9,100
Chevrolet Sonic
$9,050
Fiat 500
$8,950
Mazda MAZDA2
$8,950
Smart Fortwo
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
•
•
$7,625
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
With the constant demand from consumers
for cheaper and more fuel-efficient cars, the
subcompact car segment is becoming more
attractive from a dollar standpoint.
In the 2013 model-year lineup, there are
four vehicles with auction values under
$10,000 – Fiat 500, Mazda Mazda2,
Chevrolet Spark and the Smart Fortwo.
Additionally, the 2013 Ford Fiesta missed
the $10,000 cutoff by only $25.
With model-year 2012 now two years old,
the list of vehicles in the sub-$10,000 range
jumps to nine vehicles ranging from $9,700
down to $7,625.
“As long as there is strong demand for lower
cost and value focused vehicles, this group of
1- to 2-year-old vehicles with auction values that
fall in the sub-$10,000 range will only continue
to grow,” said Gutierrez.
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Used Luxury Values Begin Year at 2013 Levels; Luxury Crossovers/SUVs Retain Best Value
Used Luxury On Par with 2013 Levels
$30,000
•
$29,000
Auction Values
$28,000
$27,000
$26,000
Values of 1- to 3-year-old luxury vehicles began 2014 at
roughly the same level as last year. Although the overall
market may see increases moving into the next few
months, Kelley Blue Book expects luxury values to remain
flat or slightly down due to increased off-lease volume and
attractive lease offers on new models.
$25,000
$24,000
CY 2012
$23,000
Jan
Feb
CY 2013
Mar
Luxury crossovers and Suvs
continue to perform well at
auction, beating the luxury
average in retained value for
the past three model years...
CY 2014
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
MY2013
90%
81%
Retained Value (% of MSRP)
80%
70%
78%
77%
74%
69%
64%
74%
68%
63%
65%
61%
MY2011
70%
64%
57%
60%
MY2012
75%
73%
60%
60%
57%
53%
48%
50%
- Alec Gutierrez
40%
30%
“The strong values are being driven by models such as the
BMW X5 (85 percent retention for MY2013), Audi Q5
(86 percent retention for MY2013) and the Lexus LX (86
percent retention for MY2013),” said Gutierrez.
20%
10%
0%
Luxury Mid-size Luxury Compact Luxury Full-size
SUV/Crossover SUV/Crossover SUV/Crossover
Luxury Average
Luxury Car
Entry-level Luxury High-end Luxury
Car
Car
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
The strength in these segments coincides with growing popularity in the new-car market as well. Nearly 750,000 luxury crossovers and SUVs were
sold in 2013, a 10 percent gain from 2012 and better than the industry average. As these vehicles remain popular with consumers, expect their used
values to remain high.
Full-Size SUV Values Flatten
Full-Size SUV Values Flatten
-0.7%
Sequoia
-1.3%
Expedition
-0.4%
-1.2%
Yukon
-0.4%
-1.6%
-0.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
January 24, 2014 vs. January 3, 2014
-2.0%
•
-0.4%
-2.0%
Yukon XL
•
-0.4%
Tahoe
-0.8%
-1.5%
December
2 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
January
-1.0%
JANUARY 2014
•
-0.1%
-1.7%
Suburban
Armada
MY 2011 - 2013
-0.5%
0.0%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Although values for all vehicles in the full-size SUV segment
continue to decline in January, the decreases are not as
significant as in December 2013.
Changes for all vehicles in this segment were less than 1 percent.
The largest decrease was for the Ford Expedition, which
dropped 0.8 percent in January.
With the start of the new year, Kelley Blue Book expects full-size
SUV values overall to hold steady as long as gas prices remain
relatively steady.
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Full-Size Pickup Truck Values Begin 2014 Above Previous Years
“Auction values for full-size pickup trucks are off to a strong start
in 2014, compared to previous years, ending the month of January
4.1 percent higher than January 2012 and 3.4 percent higher than
January 2013,” said Gutierrez.
Full-Size Pickup Truck Auction Values
$19,500
$19,000
Auction Values
$18,500
•
$18,000
$17,500
$17,000
•
CY 2012
$16,500
Jan
Feb
CY 2013
Mar
Apr
CY 2014
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Truck YTD % Difference
MY 2011 - 2013
F150 Super Cab
•
0.9%
1500 Quad Cab
0.0%
Tundra Double Cab
0.0%
Avalanche
-0.4%
Ridgeline
Values are continuing to hold, thanks in part to strength
in the construction sector. Permits authorized for privately
owned housing units in December 2013 were up 4.6 percent
from December 2012, according to the U.S. Department of
Commerce.
Increasing interest in the segment also is likely helping keep
values higher, thanks to the launch of redesigned models like
the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, and refreshes or
the introduction of new trim levels for models like the Toyota
Tundra.
At the model level, declines have been mild for full-size
pickups so far in 2014 with no models dropping more
than 1.7 percent year-to-date. The Ford F150 was the only
model to increase so far in 2014, possibly due to consumer
and industry interest in the recently revealed all-new 2015
F-150.
-0.6%
Sierra 1500 Extended Cab
-1.7%
Titan Crew Cab
-1.7%
Silverado 1500 Extended Cab
-1.7%
-2%
January 24, 2014 vs. January 1, 2014
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Mid-Size Vehicles Underperform Market
Mid-Size Segment Underperforms
$15,000
Mid-Size Segment YTD % Difference
0.8%
Optima
$14,000
0.7%
Auction Values
Fusion
$13,500
0.5%
Camry
0.5%
MAZDA6
$13,000
0.1%
Malibu
$12,500
-0.3%
Sonata
-0.6%
Accord
$12,000
-0.6%
Legacy
$11,500
CY 2012
$11,000
Jan
Feb
CY 2013
Mar
Apr
Passat
CY 2014
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
MY 2011 - 2013
Altima
$14,500
The mid-size vehicle segment ended the year 2.7 percent below
calendar year 2012 figures. As a result, the segment started 2014 an
average of $285, or 2.2 percent lower than at the start of 2013.
-4.0%
-1.3%
-3.2%
-3.0%
January 24, 2014 vs. January 3, 2014
•
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
JANUARY 2014
2.0%
Throughout the first month of the new year, the vehicles within the
mid-size segment that had the largest four-week percentage change
were the Volkswagen Passat and Subaru Legacy, down 3.2 percent and
1.3 percent respectively.
The statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to change without notice. This publication has been
prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions.
3 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
1.0%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
HOT USED-CAR REPORT:
The Midwest Deep Freeze Impacts KBB.com Shopper Activity
- Arthur Henry, senior manager of market intelligence and market analyst, Kelley Blue Book
Kelley Blue Book’s Hot Used-Car Report captures monthly used-car shopper activity on KBB.com, including a list of the top and bottom movers in the same time
period. Results are provided by the Kelley Blue Book Market Intelligence Team, in an effort to help dealers better understand which used vehicles consumers are
looking at most each month.
Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth
Top/Bottom 10 Models
18.8%
2011 Mercedes-Benz E-Class
2011 Acura MDX
15.5%
2011 Ford F150 Super Cab
14.4%
2011 Honda Odyssey
14.1%
2011 Toyota Highlander
13.8%
3.7%
Full-Size Pickup Truck
3.5%
Full-Size Crossover
2.3%
Compact Luxury Car
2.0%
Luxury Car
1.7%
12.0%
Luxury Sport Utility
1.7%
11.6%
Mid-Size Sport Utility
1.7%
10.7%
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee
7.1%
2011 Honda Accord
5.3%
-7.3%
2007 Honda CR-V
Mid-Size Crossover
1.5%
Compact Crossover
1.0%
Entry Luxury Car
Hybrid Car
0.1%
-0.5%
Mid-Size Car
-10.9%
-1.1%
Premium Sports Car
-1.4%
2010 Toyota Prius
-11.1%
Premium Luxury Car
-1.5%
2007 Pontiac G6
-11.5%
Compact Car
-1.6%
-15.3%
2008 Chevrolet Cobalt
2008 Cadillac SRX
-25.6%
2007 Jaguar XK Series
-26.5%
2007 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Regular Cab
2010 Jaguar XK Series
2007 GMC Sierra (Classic) 1500 Regular Cab
-100%
-35.1%
Minivan
-2.4%
Mid-Size Pickup Truck
-2.8%
Subcompact Car
-3.3%
Full-Size Car
-3.8%
Van
-5.8%
-38.7%
Sports Car
-6.1%
-40.4%
High Performance
-50%
0%
50%
100%
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
•
•
5.2%
Luxury Crossover
2011 Honda Civic
2007 Toyota RAV4
•
Full-Size Sport Utility
2011 Toyota RAV4
2011 Honda CR-V
•
Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth Segments
-6.9%
-40% -30% -20% -10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
Share of used-car shopping activity for full-size SUVs, luxury crossovers and full-size pickup trucks increased in December, particularly in
the midwest.
GM is the leading brand in the Midwest with the Tahoe, Suburban and Yukon the most shopped models in the region. Most shoppers in
this region favor domestic automobiles, but GM tops with its product offerings in the full-size segment.
The leading truck in the segment in the Midwest is the Ford F-150, followed by Silverado.
The Lexus RX is the key driver among Midwest shoppers in the luxury crossover segment.
About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the
automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book®
Trade-In and Suggested Retail Values, and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing
and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. For two years
running, Kelley Blue Book’s KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity and was named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year in the 2012 and 2013 Harris
Poll EquiTrend® study. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a subsidiary of AutoTrader Group, which includes AutoTrader.com, vAuto, VinSolutions and HomeNet Automotive.
AutoTrader Group is a majority-owned subsidiary of Cox Enterprises.
4 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
JANUARY 2014