The world in 2050
The world in 2050: expectations and forecasts Astana, 2015 THE WORLD IN 2050: HSBC Bank Global Research FORECASTS AUTHORS FORECAST PERIOD Main characteristi cs 2011- 2050 CUSTOMER HSBC Bank Global Research HSBC Bank KEY CONCLUSIONS DEMOGRAPHY GLOBAL ECONOMY 19 of 30 advanced economies in 2050 will be among the expanding economies 47% Expanding economies Others 53% Global GDP growth will average 3% Expanding markets will be the main drivers of growth: their contribution to world GDP is higher than that of developed countries doubled Demographic changes will largely determine the opportunities for economic growth (+/- 2.5% GDP growth) The recession of labor is typical for Japan (37%), Korea (32%), Singapore, China, Russia and several European countries The growth will occur in Saudi Arabia and Egypt (70%), as well as in Malaysia, India, Indonesia. MEGATRENDS By 2050, the influence of the East will increase due to the significant development of China and India China will become the number one economy in the world, India takes third place of leading economies of the world Demographic changes (aging of population) in Europe will lead to a significant recession in Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Denmark and Norway (come out of the 30 developed countries) THE WORLD IN 2050 Main characteristi cs AUTHORS FORECAST PERIOD 2050 RELEASE DATE John Andrews, The Economist 2012 KEY CONCLUSIONS DEMOGRAPHY GLOBAL ECONOMY To the next 10 years the developing countries will grow at a faster pace, China will lead in terms of economy. However, in 2050 China's GDP growth will be 2.5% Most developing region to the next 40 years will be Asia (4.7%) that is followed by sub-Saharan Africa (4.4%), the Middle East and North Africa (3.9%). The world's population will reach 9 billion, and the numbers continue to grow The most significant growth will show Africa (increased by 3 times). India will become the most populous country in 2050 (1.7 billion). The "Demographic dividend" from the growth of the employable population will be0.5 - 1% of GDP By 2050, per100 persons of employable population will have 58 dependents. MEGATRENDS 2050 will be the era of Asia: China and India will become the first and third world economies By 2050, the world will be at 70% urbanized, which leads to the appearance of 30 cities with a population of not less than 10 million Over the next 40 years, the world will witness the emergence of a "global middle class" THE WORLD IN 2050: BRICS countries: perspectives, challenges and opportunities Main characteristi cs FORECAST PERIOD 2050 AUTHORS RELEASE DATE PwC 2013 КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ KEY CONCLUSIONS ВЫВОДЫ Risks and opportunities GLOBAL ECONOMY The average annual growth of the global economy will be 3% China will surpass the United States in 2017 in purchasing power parity India will be the third "world giant" in 2050 China's economy begins to cool down after 2020. Due to the aging of the employable population Risks Ecological risks Demographic changes: an aging population Opportunities Opportunities for: Retailers working with the franchise Owners of major global brands (Apple, Zara, Ikea, etc.) Creative Industries Service providers in the field of health and education China's contribution to global GDP will be the most significant in 2050 20% China USA India EU 17% 14% 12% 100 VIABLE CITIES 1913: 10% of the world's population lived in cities 2013: 50% of the world population live in cities 2050: 75% of the world's population will live in cities The Rockefeller Foundation researches shows that the process of urbanization will occur everywhere. By 2050, three-quarters of the population will live in cities, which will contribute to the development of the urban economy. UN FORECASTS URBANIZATION 2 of 10 people of Earth lived in cities 4 of 10 people of Earth lived in cities 5 of 10 people of Earth live in cities 6 of 10 people of Earth will live in cities 7 of 10 people of Earth will live in cities Calculations of UN-HABITAT considering million-strong cities USAID FORECASTS 1987: 5 billion people 1999: 6 billion people 2011: 7 billion people 2011: 9 billion people Due to the growth of the world population, the needs of food production will increase by 70%
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