CITY COUNCIL WORKSESSION AGENDA WORKSESSIONAGENDA City of Greeley April 28, 2015 5:00 5: 00 p.m. p. m. City Council Chambers -- 919 7th Street Th GREELEY CITY COUNCIL VISION Greeley promotes a healthy, diverse economy and high quality of life responsive to all its residents and neighborhoods, thoughtfully managing its human and natural resources in a manner manner that that creates creates and and sustains sustains aa safe, safe, unique, unique, vibrant vibrant and and rewarding rewarding community community in in which to live, work, and play. Item Number 11 5:00 5: 00 -- 6:00 6: 00 p.m. p. m. Title Report: Water Master Plan 2007·2014 2007.2014 Review and 2016 Budget Proposed Modifications Contact Contact Burt Knight, Water &. & Sewer Director Item Number 2 6:00 p.m. 6: 00 -- 6:20 6: 20 p. m. Title Overview Overview of the Annual Growth &. & Development Report Contact Contact Brad Mueller, Community Development Director Item Number 3 3 Title Scheduling of Meetings, Other Events Contact Roy Otto, City Manager 1 CITY COUNCIL WORKSESSION City of Greeley April 28,2015 Item Number 1 5:00 - 6:00 p.m. Report: Water Master Plan 2007-2014 Review and 2016 Budget Proposed Modifications Contact Burt Knight, W&S D irector, 336-4095 Background Staff is preparing ordinance modifications on the W ater & Sewer Department budgeting process to be presented to the Board in May and C ity Council in June. The proposed ord inance requires that the Board and Council are presented a brief review of the progress on the 2003 W ater Master Plan and proposed modifications for the next year's budget. The 2003 W ater Master Plan (Master Plan) identified the need of annual reviews to update project goals and accomplishments. Master Plan reviews were completed annu ally from 2003 to 2007 . Included is a 2007 to 2014 Master Plan review. (2003 W ater Master Plan and upd ates can be viewed at: http://greeleygov.com/ services/water/ water-resourcesplanning) Many projects and goals identified in the Master Plan have been substantially completed including water acquisition, expansion of water treatment, and installation of a new transmission pipeline to the Bellvue W ater Treatment Plant. The Master Plan Review includes a summary spreadsheet of the project acco mplishments assoc iated with the Master Plan's 2003 Capital Plan . This Review and Future Annual Master Plan Reviews will ass ist in budget processes and d iscussions. Based on this Master Plan review and other an alys is, staff will present the proposed 201 6 budget. Included is funding for Staff Success ion Planning, N eeds Study at the W ater Treatment Plants and possible rehabilitation and upgrades, a Future Fac ilities Plan , Boyd Lake water quality enhancements, Supervisory Control Data Acquisition (SCADA) improvements, U pper Equalizer Alternative, and potential cost variance for N orthern Segment of Bellvue Transmission Pipeline tunneling. The Master Plan also ide ntified the need of an annual review of key policies, driving factors, and ch anges to options to meet water d emands, and Ca pital Projects. Staff is reviewing methods to track changes that have previously occurred and any fu ture changes to the Master Plan to keep the document current. Key policies listed below may need review or are being reviewed and will be discussed under separate reports later this year. 2 Key Policies Growth Shall Pay its Own Way - Water acquisition had become very competitive and Greeley responded with Water Acquisition Funds I and II. The purchasing of water before the demand does shift some of the cost to existing rate payers. Staff is currently conducting a study of the Cash-in-Lieu and dedication policies with a report targeted for June 2015. The Master Plan also envisioned plant investment fees (PIFs) funding all growth related capital construction. This was not the case. Growth did not occur at the pace envisioned in the Master Plan and the PIF revenues forecasted were not realized. Since the Master Plan was adopted, $44 million in bond revenue was taken on by the water utility for growth related construction projects. The debt service associated with those bonds is being paid by the existing rate payers. Dedication Water Sources - Currently water allowed for dedication was specifically GLIC, partial yield of the GIC, Lake Loveland, Seven Lakes, or C-BT. Each one of these water sources were identified as capable of being used at the Water Treatment Plants, or deductions from the dedicated yield was applied for shortfalls such as with the Gle. We may be at a time when reviewing the list is appropriate. Staff is currently conducting a study of the Cash-in-Lieu and dedication policies with a report targeted for June 2015. Driving Factors Growth Population growth dropped below projections for the several years during the recession from 2008 to 2012, however, recent population growth rates have increased to previously projected rates. The average population growth rate from 2001 to 2008 was 2.7%, and between 2008 and 2014 the population growth rate was at 2% suggesting that the projected population growth rate of 2.5% to 2060 as identified in the Comprehensive Plan is still reasonable. Water demand projections remain consistent with the 2012 estimates, as due future estimated water supply needs. However, annual evaluation of water supply requirements based on future demand projection will be conducted and provided. Changes Next Steps in the Water Budget - The information water budget approach has been expanded to all Greeley water users. Information showing actual customer water usage compared to acceptable usage is provided to all residential customers in the City. In order to reduce demand for gross water over users, the next step is the discussion of applying rates to the water budget program. Staff is prepared to present next steps to move the water budget program forward. Capital Projects Significant changes that have occurred in implementing capital projects are listed below: 3 • Concentrate on Milton-Seaman Expansion instead of participating in Northern Integrated Supply Project (NISP). Both of these projects were included in the Master Plan capital projects but, the decision was made that Greeley would not be participant in NISP. • Rehab the existing Bellvue "WTP filter building and eliminate hydraulic restrictions to accomplish expansion to 32 mgd. The original plan was to build a new filter system and building expanding the plant capacity by 10 mgd and rehab the existing 22 mgd plant. • Reduce the Boyd "WTP to only chemical systems that would freeze in the winter and construct interconnects with other water suppliers to meet winter needs if they occurred. The Boyd "WTP is a peaking plant typically only producing water between April and October. The Master Plan proposed to be completely winterized Boyd "WTP for back up needs if a problem occurred at the Bellvue"WTP in winter. • Delay the Chimney Park Pumping Station long into the future by installing enough of the Bellvue Transmission Pipeline to increase transmission capacity. The Master Plan proposed to build the Chimney Park Pumping Station to quickly increase transmission capacity until the entire Bellvue Transmission Pipeline was completed. • Establish Water Acquisition Fund II with the goal to acquire 10,000 acre-feet of new raw water at an estimated cost of $90 million over 10 years. The Master Plan did not anticipate this project. Council Direction Requested • Based on the presented material and presentation does Council agree with the proposed ideas to be included in the proposed 2016 Budget? • Does Council request any additions to be developed and presented in the proposed 2016 Budget? Decisions Options Direct staff to prepare the budget and contain any additional items as directed. Attachments 2007 - 2014 Water Master Plan Review 2015 - 5 Year Capital Plan PowerPoint 4 2007- 2014 Water MasterPlan Review SUMMARY As required by the Water Master Plan, Greeley staff has performed a review of the following key areas of the Plan: • Key policies. Policy No.1 "Growth shall pay its own way without unduly affecting existing ratepayers" may be challenging if Greeley wishes to secure its water future. Greeley's growth rate had temporarily slowed, but is recovering to pre-recessional rates; the raw water market price has increased substantially, while water acquisition competition has increased. For their own long-term benefit, the current rate payers have and may have to continue to act now to secure an adequate water supply for the next fifty years. • Driving factors. The four existing driving factors are population, regulations, age, and competition. o o o o Population growth dropped below projections for the several years during the recession from 2008 to 2012; however, recent population growth rates have increased to previously projected rates. Water demand projections remain consistent with the 2012 estimates, as do future estimated water supply needs. Regulatory requirements of the Enhanced Surface Water Treatment Rule and Stage 2 Disinfection Byproducts Rule have not resulted in the additional projects anticipated in the Water Master Plan to be implemented. Greeley has been able to meet the new requirements without the projects through increased monitoring and system testing. Bellvue and Boyd water treatment plants continue to age as well as the transmission and distribution systems. Several replacement projects from depreciation funding have been completed or are planned to keep the system in good condition. For many years the Cache La Poudre Basin was geographically far enough to limit attempts by the Denver Metro area to acquire water. Since 2007, that appears to be changing. Likely driven by the $30,000/ acre-foot being paid by Aurora, Arapahoe County and Cherry Creek for new water supplies, both piping and exchanging water from the Poudre down to Denver appears more cost-effective. In addition to larger municipalities, private equity 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 1 5 investors are seriously considering purchasing water in the Poudre basin to later sell to the highest bidder. C- BT water has become scare and the price of C-BT water has risen to more than three times 2008 prices. Greeley has long benefited from having diverse, relatively cheap water supplies available as it grows; it is becoming clear that those water supplies may no longer be available in as little as 10 years. • Blocks of Agricultural Water. Greeley has continued its historical practice of being proactive in the development of new water supplies prior to water demands from new growth coming on-line. Greeley developed two future water accounts in order to acquire water prior to growth occurring. Greeley has acquired several water supply sources for the Future Water Account Phase I, which having been adjudicated by the water court are expected to yield approximately 5,400 acre-feet. A complete summary of the acquisition program is included in Appendix A. In 2008, Greeley completed its acquisition program for Future Water Account Phase I. In 2014, Greeley completed the adjudication process for the Windsor Reservoir and Canal Company Poudre Tunnel, and Water Supply and Storage Company Shares. This has made available approximately 2,700 acre-feet of supplies for Greeley. The remaining gain in firm yield associated Future Water Account I acquisition program will be realized following successful permitting and construction of the Windy Gap Firming Project. Recognizing the increasing competition for water supplies in northern Colorado, Greeley Council and the Board committed to a Future Water Account Phase II with the goal of acquiring an additional 10,000 acre-feet over a ten-year period. Greeley has since acquired 2,100 acre-feet of this water supply over the last four years. Target acquisition volume is approximately half of anticipated due to extremely competitive water market conditions. • Review of Integrated Strategies. Several Master Plan Integrated Strategies have been implemented including constructing a new pipeline from the Bellvue WTP, upgrading both treatment plants, utilizing existing supplies for non-potable or augmentation, and gravel pit acquisition. Improvements to the flocculation/sedimentation basins and filter influent/effluent piping modifications allowed CDPHE to re-rate the Bellvue WTP to 32 MGD contingent upon maintaining the finished water quality. Greeley has completed construction on 19 miles of the total 29 miles of the Bellvue Pipeline. When complete the entire pipeline including the Northern Segment, currently under construction, and the future Gold Hill Segment, will allow an additional 50 MGD capacity to flow by gravity from Bellvue to Greeley {total of 70 MGD}. Permitting for Milton Seaman Reservoir expansion has entered the alternatives evaluation phase. Greeley continues to pursue and complete all raw water options identified in the Master Plan. 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 2 6 Key Policies 1. Growth shall pay its own way without unduly affecting existing ratepayers. Specifically: a) Greeley will develop a "Future Water Account" of additional water supplies in advance of new growth. The near-term development of the additional supplies shall be limited to the projected growth expected to 2020 by Greeley's Comprehensive Growth Plan, or 6,000 acre-feet. b) New dry land growth will pay cash-in-lieu of water rights as it occurs once new water supplies have been developed in the Future Water Account. Cash-in-lieu shall be priced at the full, actual cost of developing new water at a 50-year drought yield basis so as to completely replenish the water used from the Future Water Account. c) System development charges (plant investment fees) for development shall be based on growth buying into the replacement cost of the existing asset base without deducting depreciation. d) Waivers or reductions of raw water dedication or system development charges by City Council (e.g., for economic development incentives) shall be repaid by the General Fund to the Water Acquisition Fund. 2. Greeley will pursue agricultural water acquisitions from areas outside Greeley's growth boundaries. 3. Greeley will not enter into any additional open-ended outside service contracts. 4. During a severe drought, Greeley shall incrementally increase the severity of water restrictions as drought conditions intensify considering factors such as water storage within Greeley's system and regional water systems (Le. C-BT System) Greeley is dependent upon for yield. 5. Greeley will develop non-potable systems where equal or less than the cost of potable sources, striving for 15 percent of new development to be served from nonpotable sources. 6. Greeley will maintain a strong water conservation ethic and will invest in additional cost effective water conservation. The volume of savings from conservation will be analyzed periodically and Greeley shall only rely on this volume when those savings actually occur. 7. Construction of new treatment and transmission capacity shall begin when peak demands exceed 90 percent of existing capacity. 8. For the foreseeable future, Greeley will maintain the existing raw water safety factor of 7,300 acre-feet to protect against risks that may occur in meeting customer needs. 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 3 7 Driving Factors Four driving factors were identified by the Water Master Plan: • • • • Population and Economic Growth Limited Raw Water Opportunities State and Federal Regulations Aging Infrastructure Listed below are updates regarding each of the areas described above: Population and Economic Growth Growth had slowed from 2007 to 2012; however, long-term projections of population growth remain firm at greater than 2% annually. The average population growth rate from 2001 to 2008 was 2.7%, and between 2008 and 2014 the population growth rate was at 2%, suggesting that the projected population growth rate of 2.5% to 2060 as identified in the Comprehensive Plan is still reasonable. The Seaman Water Management Project has projected a more modest 2.25% for the next forty years. Some 80 water taps were added in 2008 compared to 1,300 taps sold in 2003. From 2008 to 2012, less than 100 taps were sold annually. However, 2013 saw more than 400 water taps sold, and projections for 2015 are approximately 800 water taps. These are strong indications that the economy is recovering from the 2008 downturn. Increasingly Limited Raw Water Opportunities Although the severity of the current drought continued to lessen in 2007, along the front-range the public awareness of the need for additional water supplies remains high. Denver suburbs (Castle Rock, ECCV, and Arapahoe County are acquiring ditch company shares in Northern Colorado) have become acutely aware of the need to develop additional water supplies and have evaluated and acquired water sources within the Poudre Basin. Thornton intends to begin taking a'portion of their Water Supply and Storage Company (WSSC) water, private equity firms attempt to corner the market on Colorado-Big Thompson units, other private investors are negotiating purchases with ditch companies, and the Northern Integrated Supply Project (NISP) is due to release its draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) the summer of 2015. State and Federal Regulations Greeley is currently in the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) permitting process for expansion of Milton Seaman Reservoir. The expansion, if allowed, will require both an occupancy permit from the United States Forest Service and a permit from the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. The permitting process is complicated by the designation under the Endangered Species Act of "Critical 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 4 8 Habitat" for the Preble's Meadow Jumping Mouse in the area of expected reservoir inundation. Greeley's challenge of the designation of Critical Habitat for the Preble's has been stayed pending evaluation of the listing status of the mouse. The United States Environmental Protection Agency has promulgated its Long Term 2 Enhanced Surface Water Treatment Rule and the "companion" regulation, the Stage 2 Disinfection Byproduct Rule. The Surface Water Treatment Rule was designed for more effective treatment for microbial pathogens of high concern (such as cryptosporidium, which caused an outbreak in Milwaukee in 1993 that sickened over 400,000 people). If levels in raw water required additional treatment, the Greeley water treatment plants would need to add an additional treatment system. At the Boyd plant, a project was proposed to add UV treatment and at the Bellvue plant, membrane filtration. Additional testing of the raw water has not shown levels which trigger the regulations requirements. Both projects are still identified in the long-range capital plan. Stage 2 Disinfection Byproduct Rule was designed to address Tri-halo-methanes (THMs) and Halo-acetic-acids (HALOs). Both Bellvue and Boyd had projects to change the disinfection from chlorine to a different method. Neither project has been required to date by the new regulations as a result of increased testing in the transmission and distribution systems. Both projects are still identified in the long-range capital plan. Aging Infrastructure Greeley continues to replace or repair aging infrastructure. Adding capacity to the Bellvue treatment and transmission system was identified as the most vulnerable portion of Greeley's water system within the 2003 Water Master Plan. The entire list and status of the projects identified in Appendix C of the Water Master Plan is included in Appendix B of this document. In the 2003 Master Plan Annual Review, a decision was documented to rehab the Bellvue plant and modify hydraulic restrictions which were completed in 2008. Another modification was to reduce the amount of Boyd winterization to placing portions of the chemical system inside a building and installing interconnects with other water suppliers. The reasons for these decisions were to lower projects costs and direct the savings to the Bellvue transmission line and raw water purchases. • • • Bellvue Treatment: A project was constructed in 2008, replacing the raw water influent piping along with the original filter building influent/effluent piping. Improvements constructed to the flocculation system allowed CDPHE to change the plant rating from 20 MGD to 32 MGD (net). Bellvue Transmission: Installation of the new transmission line provides reliability to Greeley's existing transmission lines, which are over fifty years old, and increases the delivery capacity from the Bellvue plant. The existing transmission lines were relined where needed. Boyd Treatment: Repair of cracking and spalling of the south pump station floor/clearwell roof was completed in 2010. 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 5 9 • Distribution system renovation continues on schedule. The cement mortar lining program has been completed, applying new lining to old cast iron pipes. Pipes with excessive leak history are being replaced as needed. Changes to Options Available to Meet New Demands Water Conservation On November 19, 2008, the Greeley Water and Sewer Board adopted the Water Conservation Plan that projects a more than eight percent reduction in Greeley's water demand over the next 20 years. The plan was submitted to the Colorado Water Conservation Board for review and approval on November 21, 2008. To date, Greeley has exceeded its projections of 144 acre-feet of annual water reduction through conservation. The Water Conservation Program is one of the largest programs in the state with an annual budget over $500,000. Since 2008, the Water Conservation program has provided approximately 175 residential irrigation audits per year, 65 indoor commercial audits per year, 50 commercial irrigation audits, as well as provided over 1,650 toilet rebates and 2,212 washer rebates. In January 2015, the Water and Sewer Board and City Council approved an updated version of the Water Conservation Plan and sent the plan to the Colorado Water Conservation Board for approval. The plan includes several new conservation strategies including residential landscape code changes, commercial audits and conservation strategies at city park landscapes. Greeley is still waiting for comments and approval for the new plan. The 2014, Water Conservation Plan Update projects 3,120 acre-feet of water demand reduction over a 20-year planning horizon. Greeley is evaluating moving to a water budget rate structure. Greeley began a water budget study in 2008. The project goal for the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of empowering customers with information to improve their water efficiency. After evaluating the water consumption of over 800 residential meters since the early 2000's, Greeley believed a water budget was the best rate structure to promote and encourage the efficient use of water for its customers while discouraging waste. In 2008, staff requested Statements of Qualifications (SOOs) from firms to assist with the development and implementation of a water budget rate structure. Greeley has since implemented a water budget based rate structure study. To date the following has been implemented: • • • • The Utility Billing System was upgraded to incorporate informational water budget billing. An irrigated area database was developed for each single-family residential customer as part of the Water Budget Pilot Project. Developed a water budget-based rate model for single family residential customers. The first year of the program was completed in 2011. An informational water budget pilot project was conducted with approximately 250 volunteers. 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 6 10 • • The program was expanded in 2012 to include a random sample of up to 1,000 residential customers in addition to existing volunteers. The water budget was modified to forecast the customer's water demand, based on historic averages. In 2013, the program was expanded to all residential customers city-wide. Per customer feedback, the water budget is now based on actual weather data instead of historical weather data, which was used in 2012. Customers who use more water are in most need of water conservation messages and incentives. Greeley develops targeted communication pieces for customers who regularly exceed water budgets, and exceptionally high water bills are also flagged by utility billing. In order to reduce demand for gross water over users, the next step is the discussion of applying rates to the water budget program. Review of Integrated Strategies Treatment and Transmission Greeley continues to work diligently to improve the treatment and transmission portion of the integrated strategy outlined in the October 2003 Water Master Plan. The following four items represent the major changes and updates on the most important aspects of treatment and transmission. 1. Bellvue Transmission System -To date, 19 of 29 miles of the Bellvue transmission system are constructed and in service conveying water. When completed in 2016, the Northern Segment will be able to provide flow by gravity from the Bellvue Water Treatment Plant to Greeley. The last segment near the Poudre River to the Gold Hill finished water storage facility will allow 50 mgd to be transported to Greeley and 70 mgd total capacity through the transmission system. The Northern Segment of the Bellvue pipeline is the last segment of the pipeline being constructed in Larimer County. The Northern Segment will extend between the Bellvue Water Treatment Plant and the existing pipe at Shields Street. Design was completed in July 2012, and easement possession was obtained from all 24 property owners in 2015. Pipeline construction has been significantly restricted by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Nationwide Permit verification since 2008. Since that time USACE has delayed authorization; implemented new requirements; and called for additional information in order to authorize the Nationwide 12 Permit Verification. In order to obtain final approvals from USACE, Greeley was required to obtain authorizations from the US Fish and Wildlife Service and State Historical Preservation Office. Technical assessments required by USACE for the US Fish and Wildlife Service were completed by or before March 2012, and assessments required by USACE for the State Historical Preservation Office were completed in 2011 and 2012. Greeley was also required to complete a minimal effects determination that relies on the release of existing-conditions data that is currently being held back by USACE until the release of the Northern 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 7 11 Integrated Supply Project's Supplemental Draft Environmental Impact Statement. In 2014, USACE issued a Nationwide Permit Verification allowing construction of the Northern Segment with a maximum 26.7 mgd flow restriction from the Bellvue plant until the minimal effect determination is finalized. Following release of the existing-conditions data by USACE, the minimal effects determination will be completed and the restrictions are anticipated to be lifted. A Compensatory Mitigation Plan for river depletions caused by the proposed pipeline was drafted and is ready for submission to USACE following completion of USACE's assessment of environmental impacts. Based on the Mitigation Plan, target properties were identified as potential mitigation sites for potential future infrastructure's environmental impacts. In addition, construction of mitigation measures for the Bellvue pipeline, which established new mouse habitat and wetland enhancements, were completed in Lions Park near LaPorte, Colorado. Unfortunately, portions of this project were damaged in the September 2013 flood event, and restoration activities to repair that damage are ongoing. Greeley also executed purchase contracts with Weld County for a 160-acre mitigation property at 59 th Avenue in Greeley in 2013. 2. Hansen Canal Pipeline - The expansion of the Hansen Canal Pipeline was conceived due to the 2012 wildfires that occurred in the upper Cache la Poudre Basin watershed. The existing pipeline has a capacity of 18 mgd with the additional pipeline increasing total capacity to 50 mgd of C-.BT raw water into the Bellvue plant. A complete description of the Hewlett Gulch and High Park Wildfires, Greeley's lead in the soil stabilization and mitigation efforts, federal funding and continued mitigation efforts is included in an Appendix C. In summary, the May 2012 Hewlett Gulch Fire burn area is located in Larimer County, Colorado, 20 miles northwest of Fort Collins. The lands burned included lands lying adjacent to the Milton Seaman Reservoir and upstream of Greeley's Cache la Poudre River raw water direct flow diversion to its Bellvue Treatment Plant. Shortly after Hewlett Gulch Fire, the 2012 High Park Fire occurred, burning an additional 10,000 acres above Greeley's diversion and caused ash and sediment debris to blacken the water supply and affect diversions for several years. The Hansen Canal Pipeline was designed to increase capacity from the Hansen Canal to the Bellvue Treatment Plant, allowing additional C-BT supplies from Horsetooth Reservoir to be treated in case of future water quality issues from a fire or other negative impacts to the watershed. The Hansen Canal Pipeline was designed in 2013 and completed in April 2015 This 36-inch pipeline conveys Colorado/Big Thompson water from the Hansen Canal to the raw water pond of the Bellvue WTP and provides the ability to feed a secondary or supplemental source of water to the treatment 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 8 12 plant. Capacity was expanded from 18 mgd to a total of 50 mgd with this project. 3. Finished Water Storage - The amount of finished water storage needed is a function of the system capacity. As the system grows, so does the need for in-town storage. The optimal sized and located finished water storage project(s) were analyzed utilizing computer water distribution models and completed in 2008 and revised in 2011. A new Gold Hill Finished 5MG Water Storage to be located at Gold Hill is currently underway. Construction of this tank will allow inspection and rehabilitation of the existing 15 MG tank also located at Gold Hill. 4. Seaman Water Supply Project (the Milton Seaman Reservoir Expansion) Greeley initiated formal consultation with USACE in 2005 for permitting associated with the Seaman Water Supply Project, and the Corps published a Notice of Intent in the Federal Register in 2006. At approximately the same time Greeley was researching the expansion of the Milton Seaman Reservoir, Fort Collins and other water providers were investigating expanding Halligan Reservoir, also located on the North Fork approximately 16 miles upstream from Milton Seaman Reservoir. The participants in the Halligan Reservoir Expansion and Greeley initially formed the Halligan-Seaman Water Management Project (HSWMP) in an effort to share costs and develop operational synergies between the two projects. These projects were initially assessed in a combined Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) led by the USACE Denver Regulatory Office with the Corps hosting two scoping meetings in 2006. As part of this combined process, the Corps developed a Common Technical Platform (CTP) for the HSWSP and another proposed EIS in the Poudre Basin (called the Northern Integrated Supply Project) that established a consistent method for evaluating resources and hydrology for these multiple projects in the Poudre River Basin. To date, the following work associated with the HSWSP has been completed: • • • • The permit applicants transitioned from a Shared Vision Planning Outreach Program to a city-designed public outreach program and web 2.0 outreach program in 2012. Hydrologic model runs were completed for the Common Technical Platform for current and future river conditions in 2012. The Purpose and Need (P&N) statement was completed and finalized in Feb. 2013 after EPA comments on water quality and water conservation were addressed. A Preliminary Draft Alternative Screening Report was released in April 2013 (based on 2013 USACE authorization of the participants' development of alternative models). In January of 2015, Greeley, Fort Collins, and USACE agreed to separate the HSWSP into two distinct EISs, the Halligan Water Supply Project and Seaman Water Supply Project (SWSP), to primarily address growing discrepancies in timing between the two projects. The newly independent 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 9. 13 projects will be evaluated and developed by separate Third-Party Consultants. As part of that decision, USACE will hire a new independent third-party consultant to assist with the continued preparation of the SWSP EIS. While Greeley will fund the third-party EIS preparation, the regulatory and technical aspects of the work will be directed by USACE. Aspects of the SWSP, including hydrologic modeling, will continue to be evaluated within the context of the CTP. Moving forward, the new third-party contractor will review past analyses and assist USACE with re-evaluating project screens and project alternatives and potentially develop different alternatives for Greeley to implement. The thirdparty contractor will also complete impacts assessments for the finalized alternatives and develop the project's draft and final EIS. The Water Master Plan does not anticipate the need for an expanded Milton Seaman Reservoir, based on demand analyses, to be necessary until after 2020. Greeley will then need to expand Milton Seaman Reservoir by 48,000 acre-feet to a total storage volume of 53,000 acre-feet. Raw Water Below is an update on the raw water projects identified in the Water Master Plan: • . Windy Gap Firming Project -The Windy Gap Firming Project entered the federal permitting process in 2003 and a draft EIS was released in the summer of 2011. The Municipal Subdistrict, Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Subdistrict) requested a Section 404 (Clean Water Act) Permit from the USACE Omaha District Regulatory Branch to construct Windy Gap Firming Project Water Supply facilities for its customers and 13 other Front Range water providers located in Colorado between Denver and Fort Collins. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is the lead federal agency managing the EIS and the USACE Omaha District Regulatory Branch has been participating as a Cooperating Agency. The costs for the firming project will be paid using the revenue from the sale of 20 of Greeley's 64 Windy Gap units. In 2005, Greeley sold three units to Fort Lupton. Twelve units were put under contact with the Little Thompson Water District which closed and were transferred in February 2015, and another five units with Greeley of Evans, which have scheduled closing deadlines on or before the final reservoir permit issuance. The project permitting is anticipated to be complete by 2015, a delay of about six years. The draft EIS process had taken significantly longer than anticipated, primarily due to lagged turnaround by the Bureau of Reclamation on reviewing key data/reports, federal agreements and Grand County 1041 approvals. 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 10 14 Key milestones were reached between 2011 and 2014 including: the Windy Gap Firming Project's final Environmental Impact Statement published in 2012, State Wildlife Mitigation Plan was approved by the State of Colorado in 2012, the Windy Gap Firming Project's Grand County 1041 approval was obtained by the Subdistrict in 2013, the supplemental Clarity Agreement for Grand Lake was signed, settlement agreement was reached with Rancher opposition groups, The Record of Decision was signed by the Bureau of Reclamation, and the Carriage Agreement Contract was approved by the Bureau of Reclamation in 2014. The Subdistrict is still required to obtain 404 Permit from the USACE and Colorado Water Quality Control Division 401 Water Quality Certification prior to final permit approvals. Project design is anticipated to begin in January 2016, and construction to begin in 2018. • Upper Poudre Gravel Pit Storage - Greeley, along with the Tri-Districts (Partners), purchased the already mined Overland Trail Gravel Pits from Lafarge in 2006. When fully online (2022) the pits will increase operational flexibility and serve to maximize existing and newly acquired water supplies. The total project storage estimated need for Greeley was projected to be 2500 acre-feet. To date, approximately 2500 acre-feet of storage is owned by Greeley, with approximately 1000 acre-feet lined and ready for operation. In 2009, the Partners successfully negotiated and purchased properties critical to the Overland Trail Reservoir Project. These include Ponds 1 (Linder), Pond 2 (Trieber), and Pond 3 (TreiberIWarson) south of the existing bike trail. These ponds added approximately 1,200 acre-feet of additional storage to the .existing storage purchased in 2005 for the Partners. In 2011, Greeley finalized the Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) with the Tri- Districts. Following the execution of this agreement, the partners successfully obtained a division of Mining and Reclamation Permit (DRMS) for Trieber A, north of the bike path. Under the management of the Tri-Districts, The Parcel was lined for water storage in 2013, and interconnect pipe installation is scheduled to be completed in 2015. In 2012, the Partners closed on the Linder Parcel following the approval from the State Engineers Office for the compacted clay liner leak test, providing approximately 250 acre-feet of storage for Greeley. In 2013, the Partners closed on the Trieber Parcel following the approval from the State Engineers Office for the compacted clay liner leak test, providing an approximately 125 acre-feet of storage for Greeley, and in 2015 the Partners will close on the TrieberIWarson Parcel following the approval from the State Engineers Office for the compacted clay liner leak test, providing an additional 250 acre-feet of storage for Greeley. • Lower Poudre Gravel Lake Storage - Greeley completed construction of the Poudre Ponds at Greeley (aka 25th Avenue Gravel Lake) along with 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 11 15 pump station and inlet / outlet facilities. The ponds met the State Engineer's requirements for lined storage in 2003. Storage at the site is approximately 1,500 acre-feet. As much as 1,000 acre-feet of additional capacity can be created at the site (for a total capacity of 2,500 acre-feet) with additional mining, which does not appear cost-effective at this time. This project increases the efficiency of Greeley's water system by allowing the retiming of untreatable supplies to meet non-potable demands. The total project storage estimated need for the Greeley was projected to be 3500 acre-feet; therefore Greeley began a Poudre Ponds expansion program. In 2012, Greeley exercised the option to purchase additional property (Poudre Ponds Flatiron Parcels) that adjoined Poudre Ponds. Greeley obtained Division of Mining Reclamation and Safety (DRMS) as well as local mining and reclamation permits, and rezoned and annexed the parcels. Greeley selected Hall Irwin to mine Poudre Ponds Flatirons Parcels (Parcel B) contingent upon execution of the option to purchase the additional property. The mining and generation of water storage in the adjoining parcel have many benefits such as shared infrastructure, reduced slurry wall costs, existing conveyance structures and reduction in existing augmentation obligations at the site. To date, approximately one half of the mineable materials have been extracted from the site, and project completion is anticipated in 2020. The project will add an additional 1,700 acre-feet of water storage to the Poudre Ponds facility. Following construction of the liner on Parcel B, Greeley will have 3,300 acre-feet available for storage by 2021. • Large Non-potable Development Projects - Greeley is assessing a Lower Equalizer Project, which could serve Greeley's existing and masterplanned non-potable demand in the service area of the Greeley Loveland Irrigation Company (GLlC) with Greeley's excess untreatable supplies (primarily wholly consumptive effluent) allowing Greeley to treat its GLiC water supplies at the Boyd Water Treatment Plant. The Lower Equalizer Project is comprised of the following 3-step process: 1. Exchanging excess untreatable supplies from the Poudre Basin (primarily Water Pollution Control Facility (WPCF) wholly consumptive effluent) up the South Platte and Big Thompson Rivers to storage at a proposed reservoir to be located near the Big Thompson River. 2. Completing the environmental permitting for and construction ·of the new reservoir. 3. Piping and pumping the stored water north to intersect with and release into the GLiC Ditch. In 2012, Greeley evaluated the project's feasibility and concluded that the critical success factors (water supply, water demand, exchange potential and operational considerations) suggest that the Lower Equalizer Project could be an efficient way to increase the firm yield of Greeley's water 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 12 16 system. Site analysis of four potential reservoir locations began in 2007. A potential site was identified in 2012. Negotiations for the acquisition of this site are on-going. Greeley is also assessing an alternative Upper Equalizer Project, which will provide the same function as the Lower Equalizer Project. This Upper Equalizer Project could also serve Greeley's existing and master-planned non-potable demand in the service area of the Greeley Loveland Irrigation Company (GLlC) with Greeley's excess wholly consumptive effluent allowing Greeley to treat its GLiC water supplies at the Boyd Water Treatment Plant. Potential benefits of the Upper Equalizer Project compared to the Lower Equalizer Project include less or simpler environmental permitting; optimization of existing non-potable facilities; and consolidation of new infrastructure in or near city limits. The Upper Equalizer Project is comprised of the following 3-step process: 1. Exchanging excess untreatable supplies from the Poudre Basin (primarily WPCF wholly consumptive effluent) up the Cache la Poudre River to storage at or in the vicinity of Poudre Ponds. 2. Either exchanging the stored water up the Cache la Poudre River or trading (through an inter-ditch trade) up the Greeley Irrigation Company #3 Ditch to Greeley's 71 st Avenue Pump Station. 3. Piping and pumping that water south along 71 st Avenue to intersect with and release into the GLiC ditch. Work efforts on the Upper Equalizer Project to date consist of the completion of an analysis indicating adequate exchange or trade potential from the WPCF to the 71 st Avenue Pump Station. Due diligence for acquisition of additional non-potable water storage at the 35th Avenue Gravel Pit site in the vicinity of Poudre Ponds is also being completed, and a conceptual design and cost estimate for the required pipes and pumps is underway. In May 2015, staff will present the Upper Poudre Equalizer Alternative to the Water & Sewer Board. • Blocks of Agricultural Water - Greeley has continued its historical practice of being proactive in the development of new water supplies prior to water demands from new growth coming on-line. Greeley developed two future water accounts in order to acquire water prior to growth occurring. 1. Future Water Account Phase I. Greeley's 2003 Water Master Plan called for the creation of a 6,000 acre-foot Future Water Account (now designated as "Future Water Account Phase 1") so that Greeley can accept cash-in-lieu of raw water when development occurs on lands which have not been historically irrigated. The cash-in-lieu revenues would then be used either to buy additional water or to acquire other supply-enhancing water system improvements. Greeley has acquired several water supply sources for the Future Water Account Phase I, which when adjudicated by the water court are expected to yield 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 13 17 approximately 5,400 acre-feet. These sources include shares in the Windsor Reservoir and Canal Company, which entitle Greeley to a portion of the yield from the Tunnel Water Company's Laramie-Poudre Tunnel, a trans-mountain diversion project transporting water from the Laramie basin to the Poudre basin. Other sources acquired for the Future Water Account Phase I include the Windy Gap Firming Project; shares in the Water Supply and Storage Company; and shares in the New Mercer Ditch Company. In 2006, Greeley purchased 75 of the 150 Class B shares in the Windsor Reservoir and Canal Company. Greeley purchased these shares in concert with the North Weld County Water District and the Fort Collins-Loveland Water District (the districts acquired 37.5 shares each). The Class B shares represent all the rights and obligations of the Tunnel Water Company formerly owned by Windsor Reservoir and Canal Company. In 2008, Greeley completed its acquisition program for Future Water Account Phase I. Greeley had acquired several water supply sources for the Future Water Account Phase I. The most important water court decrees that were adjudicated between 2008 and 2014 are listed below. Due to these approved change decrees, Greeley has increased firm yield approximately 2,700 acre-feet. This increase in firm yield is attributed to the Laramie-Poudre Tunnel and WSSC acquisition and successful adjudication. • Laramie-Poudre Tunnel Case No. 2006CW258 - The Tunnel water rights are transbasin and wholly consumable. Greeley changed its 75 shares of Windsor Reservoir and Canal Company Class B stock portion of Tunnel Water rights in Case No. 2006CW258. A final decree was entered January 4, 2012. • Water Supply and Storage Company (WSSC) Case No. 2007CW190 - Greeley changed 22.5 shares of WSSC in Case No. 2007CW190. To change the shares, Greeley had to negotiate an agreement with the company, which was signed on April 10, 2010. The decree allows for a maximum diversion of approximately 60.64 acre-feet per share. A final decree was entered November 7, 2014. 2. Future Water Account Phase II. In 2008, recognizing the increasing competition for water supplies in northern Colorado, Greeley Council and the Board committed to a Future Water Account Phase II, with the goal of acquiring an additional 10,000 acre-feet over a ten-year period. Like the Future Water Account Phase I, these water supply acquisitions are intended to enable Greeley to accept cash in lieu of raw water when new development occurs. Greeley has since acquired 2,065 acre-feet of water supply. Some of the water purchased is still decreed for agricultural use and must go through a water court change case to be used for municipal purposes. 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 14 18 In summary, Greeley: a. Had begun acquiring shares in the Larimer & Weld Irrigation System and has acquired approximately 40 shares to date since 2012; b. Has continued with WSSC acquisition program and has acquired an additional 7.5 shares; c. Has acquired the remaining 240 shares of the Boyd and Freeman Irrigation Company; d. Has acquired 90 shares in the NPIC; and e. Has acquired additional shares in New Cache La Poudre Irrigation Company and Reservoir Company, as well as New Mercer shares. In addition, the following successful water court proceedings are relevant to the continuation of the Water Master Plan and cost reductions in relation to legal fees. • Water Rights: Greeley's Lower Cache la Poudre River Water Stewardship Project Case Nos.1999CW234 and 1999CW231 Case No. 1999CW234 is the storage component of Greeley's Lower Cache la Poudre River Water Stewardship Project and a final decree was entered on August 26, 2009. This case confirms storage on the lower Cache la Poudre River to meet return flow obligations and non-potable demands, and allows Greeley to be able to store water in Poudre Ponds, via exchange and with the junior priority water rights. Case No. 199CW231 is a plan for augmentation comprised of junior groundwater rights that will irrigate parks and cover evaporative losses from exposed groundwater ponds throughout Greeley. A final decree was entered on March 10, 2010. • Lower Equalizer Case No. 2005CW326 - The Lower Equalizer case comprises four non-potable reservoirs and appropriative rights of exchange. The case includes two reservoirs on tributaries to the Big Thompson River and two reservoirs on Sheep Draw. The reservoirs could be filled with exchanged wholly consumable effluent and the 2005 junior priority. A final decree was entered August 16, 2013. • Overland Trail Reservoir Project Case No. 2000CW251 - Overland Trail Reservoir project is a series of lined gravel pits in northwest Fort Collins. The decree allows the partners to have a decreed right of 10,962 acre-feet and one refill in the same amount. A final decree Was entered December 6, 2013. Diligence Applications: In addition to the applications above, Greeley filed diligence on several matters and received final decrees. These matters included Rockwell Reservoir (Case No. 2012CW191), Milton Seaman enlargement (Case No. 2013CW3122), and GLiC exchanges (Case Nos. 2013CW3085, 2014CW3023, and 2014CW31 05). 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 15 19 Diligence must be filed every six years for each case. Greeley will continue to file diligence on all the cases listed above in order to make water rights absolute. Reduced water court case objections: At the end of 2008, Greeley was an active objector in 83 water court cases. From 2009 to 2014, Greeley filed opposition in 51 cases. During this time, Greeley stipulated to 89 cases. At the end of 2014, Greeley is actively opposing 41 cases, an approximate 50% decrease in case load. 2014 Greeley Water Master Plan Annual Review 16 20 APPENDIX A City of /"7 ~ GreeleY Great. From the Ground Up. MEMORANDUM TO: Water and Sewer Board RE: Water Acquisition - Status Report for Phase I Expenditures FROM: Jon Monson, Wateran~ctorand Richard T. Raine.s, DATE: P.H~er Resource Administrator II tff July 21,2010 Issue: The 2003 Water Master Plan anticipated a Future Water Account ("FWA"), made up of 6,000 acre-feet of new water supplies. The estimated cost for the acquisition was $36 million and rates were established to fund this acquisition. With a possible new appropriation in 2010, Greeley may start Phase 2 of water acquisition. Prior to starting Phase 2, an accounting of the funds of the original Phase 1 FWA is appropriate. Table 1 shows that after spending almost $35 million, Greeley has been able to acquire only about 4,000 acre-feet. The two primary reasons for this situation are buying the expensive Laramie-Poudre Tunnel and buying the land along with WSSC shares. Future Water Account: The 2003 Water Master Plan intended the City develop a $36 million FWA and generally identified the water supplies needed for acquiring 6,000 acre-feet of potable firm yield. The desirable options included building small projects (Overland Trail Reservoirs and Lower Equalizer) to maximize existing water supplies, buying high quality agriculture water rights such as shares in the Tunnel Water Company and Water Supply and Storage Company (WSSC), and firming up existing supplies such as Windy Gap. The FWA was envisioned to be sufficient to meet new potable demands through 2020. Use of $36 million: Table 1 shows the expenditures during the period of 2003 to 2009 the FWA. Through 2009 Greeley has expended approximately $34.9 million with the majority of the expenditures being for water right purchases. Approximately $7.6 million of the expenditures were for other related activities, primarily land acquisition, but including pre-purchase diligence, engineering studies, and legal fees. Encumbered expenses in 2010 will add about $275,000 to the total. These continuing costs will primarily be spent on the pending Tunnel and WSSC water court cases. Greeley has recovered the cost of one WSSC farm as shown in Table 1 and could recover an additional $4.9 million with future land sales. m 21 Greeley expended $9.6 million to purchase the 22.5 WSSC shares. Expenditures shown in Table 1 include the anticipated August 2010 payment of $900,000 Greeley must pay WSSC to meet its contract obligations. Together with water court costs, the $10.6 million invested in 22.5 WSSC shares result in a cost per acre-foot of approximately $6,500. There may be additional costs associated with mitigation to WSSC and with the water court change of the various shares purchased which are not shown. Since these costs are not known, they are not included in the .average cost per acre-foot. The Windy Gap Firming Project has an estimated completion cost of $1.2 million for Greeley. The total cost of the project is estimated at $24.7 million. However, Greeley will derive revenue of $23.4 million from the sale of 20 Windy Gap units. Dividing the projected total Windy Gap project cost of $1.2 million by the estimated firm yield of 2,160 acre-feet provides a planning cost per acre foot of approximately $574. Although the increase in yield is small, the cost per acre foot of this "portfolio shift" (selling 20 units of Windy Gap to pay for the firming project) is quite attractive. If the Windy Gap Firming Project is successful, the average cost per acre-foot for all water supplies acquired during Phase 1 of the FWA will be about $5,300 as shown in Table 1. Note that Greeley has acquired water rights with a projected firm yield of 5,393 acre-feet. There is an important distinction between the water rights that are acquired and water rights that are changed in water court and thus available for municipal water supply. None of the water rights acquired using FWA funds are currently available for direct municipal use. At this time, Greeley has pending change of use cases for the Tunnel and WSSC water rights with planned completion dates in 2011. Staff plans to file a change of use case for the recently acquired but as yet unchanged Greeley and Loveland water rights in 2012. Windy Gap is projected to have a record of decision in its EIS in 2011 with a projected construction completion date of 20 16. Changing Supply and Demand Projections: The 2003 Water Master Plan estimated firm yield of Greeley's water supply at 44,500 acre-feet, including non-potable supplies. By 2020 the City was expected to receive another 1,100 acrefeet of new supplies from dedicated GLIC shares, 3,400 acre-feet from new non-potable development, and 4,800 acre-feet from the FWA acquisitions. The firm yield in 2020, including the FWA and dedicated shares, was to have been 53,800 acre-feet, including non-potable yields. Since 2003, extensive and more accurate system modeling for Halligan-Seaman has revised our firm yield estimates downward. When all FWA shares acquired in Phase 1 are changed in water court and the Windy Gap Firming Project is operational, Greeley is now estimated to have a firm . yidd of 42,900 acre-feet, including non-potable yields. Note this future yield includes projects such as the Lower Equalizer which have not yet been funded. Fortunately, growth of water demand has also been revised downwards, primarily due to significant water conservation which has dropped water demand about 15% since 2001. Coupled with the recent recession-depressed growth rate of less than 1%, Greeley'S planned water supply including the FWA (with the Lower Equalizer), is expected to sustain growth in Greeley until 2036. 2 22 Summary: The total expenditures during Phase 1 of the FWA have been $34.9 million with approximately $27.3 million spent on direct water right purchases. The majority of the additional expenditures were for land purchases needed to acquire WSSC shares and the Overland Trail Gravel Pits which will be required if additional WSSC or Larimer & Weld shares are purchased. Phase 1 of the FWA will provide Greeley an additional 5,393 acre-feet of fInn yield at an average cost of approximately $5,300 per acre-foot if the Windy Gap Firming Project is successful. Both supply and demand projections have dropped signifIcantly since the 2003 Water Master Plan. If the Lower Equalizer is completed and other GLIC shares are acquired through dedication as expected, on completion of the FWA Phase 1 Greeley'S flnn yield will be 42,900 acre-feet, sufficient for growth (at 2.25%) through about 2036. 3 23 Water Acquisition Budget Expenditures during the FWA Period of 2003·2009 costs+rehab loan payments+water court to date Modeled yield of 72 Purchase costs + 2010 payment of $40K per share to company + water Purchase from Thornton and Gilbert Need a Mure change case (2012) Estimated Yield 6.1 Purchase from Thornton and Gilbert Need a future change case (2012) Purchase from Thornton and Gilbert Need a future change case (2012) 136 withWG = ultimate 2.340 af storage at I"••_.I."~ ... Trail will be used to meet obligations (RFO's) for supplies, such as Lower Equalizer Land Purchase, "-', . ·Worst case. Modeling may show higher yield. 24 APPENDIX B 2003 Water Master Plan Appendix C Project List and Status Update , . -<, , ' , ,\: <:}pJ:oie~~, ,<:: :'r, ::: " ": " ',' " , ,:"iF, ' J ;,,' ',' ,'''" ,.:" ,,'~~~;'i:," " ,'. " " '.' ')(; " ..... Northern Integrated Suoolv Pro'ect Greelev Not Particioant Raw Water Telemetrv Boyd Water Treatment Emergency Drought Project Windy Gap Firming Non'Dotable Parks Irrigation SCADA Implement SCADA system for Parks. 8. Security Projects Increase Security at treatment plant Non-potable pro"ects implemented to reduce irrieation demands. Construct pump station for waters storage facilities. 9. Pleasant Valley Pipeline Construct Pleasant Valley pipeline to Bellvue WTP 10.SCADA Expand SCADA system 11, Bellvue Raw Water Ponds Repair ReDair Bellvue WTP raw Dond toe drains. 12. Boyd Later Water Treatment Plant UV Light Treatment Addition UV light to provide disinfection. 13. Boyd Lake Winterizing Winterization of Boyd WTP to allow it to operate year round. 14, Land A~uisition Acquire land for City facilities. 15, Bellvue 10 MGD addition Provide additional capacity at Bellvue WTP. 16, Bellvue 15 MGD addition 17. Bellvue 10 MGD addition Provide additional caDacity at Bellvue WTP. Provide additional capacity at Bellvue WTP. 18. Finished Water Storage (15 MG) Provide additional water storage capacity. ,," ," . i ::," Investil!ate expansion of Milton Seaman Reservoir. Install telemetlY on high mountain reservoirs Construct additional intakes off Boyd Lake. ParticiDate in the Windy Gap Project. L 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 2Slh Avenue Gravel Pits ,D~scfiptll)~; ~.' ,C,: ::'.:: I;,,-" " '''" " ',::;:,';:'~' '.1 .. .~ .. ,,': rs~~~~: ';' ',",'.' ',"~.'f:'.::': , ' , , , ;"',;:~ In 2003 after MP Greelev choose to pursue Milton-Seaman Reservoir expansion Comoleted 2004. Completed 2003. On-going as Participant. See Text Update Numerous pro 'ects completed. 15% Dotable to Non-Potable Demand shift Achieved Completed 2003. Completed 2010 -Continuing with Recent Park Asset Transfer Security enhanced at all facilities in early 2000s, currently working on increasing lighting and bulldin. door locks Completed 2004. Scada installed for all plants, reservoirs and transmission and distribution system. Upgrades are I'fllJlosed in 2016/17. Completed 2004. EPA Surface Water Treatment rule compliance levels have not reqUired project to date. Continue testing and tracking requirement In 2003 decision was made to reduce level of winterization to portions of chemical system and install interconnects with other water suppliers. Winterization completed in 2005. 2015 Needs Study assessment at Boyd which may sUl!J!est winterization. Acquisitions are on-going. 2003 MP Annual Review documented decision to rehab existing Bellvue WTP and eliminate several hydraulic restrictions expanding the plant to 32 mgd. In 2015 Needs Study is being prepared to review if replacement of current filter building needs to occur or rehab of system. Need currently being studied based on current growth pro·ect may occur in 2022. Need currently bein. studied. DeSign of 5 MG of storage at Gold Hill is underway, With construction scheduled for 2016/17. Additional 10 MG will be scheduled when need determined. 19. Finished Water storage (22 MG) Provide additional water storage capacity. Not scheduled at this time. Expansion of additional 10 MG will occur with Item 18 project first. 20. Chimnev Park Transmission Main 60-inch Construct Bellvue transmission line. Completed 2004. 21. Chimney Park 30 MGD Pump Station Construc·t pump station on the Bellvue transmission line. 27. Line Extensions and Oversizing Reimbursement for oversizing of water lines. 28. New Construction Meters and Water Taps 29. New Construction Meters and Water Taps 30. In~~ction Services 31. Comanche Rehabilitation Fundinl! for meters and water line taps. Funding for meters and water line taps. UtilitylnsjlOctions for new developments. Reoair toe drains at Comanche Reservoir. Installation of 60" Bellvue Transmission to Bellvue WTP eliminated need until beyond 2060 growth horizon. Completed 2003. All easements have heen acquired for the Northern Segment. Gold Hill Segment route analysis complete with resulting aCQuisitions defined with several being_negotiated. Construction will be completed during 2016 for Northern Segment. Gold Hill Segment scheduled on Capital Plan in 2026. Work has not been initiated. Construction completed. Work is on-going in association with development. Most recent project was second feed into West GreelevTech comDleted in 2013. Work is on-l!oing response to develooment. Work is on-l!oin~ response to development. Work has been part of an on-going pro.ram, Work comDleted 2005. 32. GLIC System Improvements Rehabilitate GLlc. Completed Augmentation Structures and High level Outlets at Boyd and Horseshoe Lakes 33. Bellvue Rehabilitation Phase II Second phase of improvements to Bellvue WTP. Much of the work was completed in 2008 with expansion rehab. Several additional projects were listed in program which have been delayed as result of growth slowing. 2015 Needs Study will 34. Bellvue Raw Ponds Reoair 35. Bellvue Sludge Beds Rehabilitation Repair raw ponds at Bellvue Rehabilitate slud.e beds at Bellvue WTP. Completed 2005. Two beds rehabbed in 2004. Two additional added completed in 201L 36. Transmission System Rehabilitation Rehabilitate the transmission system. Poudre River Crossing near former Kodak site lines 1&2 replaced and lowered, line 3 inspected and rehabbed. Near Watson Fish Hatchery Line 1 replaced and lowered, Three sections replaced totaling about 3000 feet. Scheduled to line 1-25 crossing, but working with CDOT on widening plan. 22. Zone 4 Improvements Construct Zone 4 improvements. 23. Bellvue Transmission Line Acquisition ROW AcqUire easements for the Bellvue Northern pipeline project. 24. Bellwe Transmission Program Construct the northern segment of the Bellvue pipeline. 25. Gold Hill Link PiDeline 26. Chlorine Scrubber Construct the final link of the 60-inch Bellvue Pipeline. Install chlorine scrubbers redefine overall pro· ect l!oals. 37. Distribution Line Replacement 38. 39. 40. 41. Valve ReDlacement and Fire Hydrant Replacement Valve Replacement and Fire Hvdrant ReDlacement Small Meter Replacement R"[JIacement Capital Outlay Distribution lines rehabilitation. Exercise fire hydrants and replace inoperable valves on an on-going basis. 42. 23 rd Avenue Reservoir Cover Renlacement Exercise fire hydrants and reolace inoperable valves on an on-l!oing basis. The remote accessed water meter procram has been completed. Establish fund to replace equipment Cover the 23rd Avenue Reservoirs. 43. Water Acquisition Develop new water supplies. Work is on-going. All cast iron pipe has been relined with cement mortar. Replace approximately 4,000 feet of pipe each year. On-going since 2004. On-.oin. since 2004. ComDleted durin. 2005, Fund established in 2004. Completed 2005. Completed Acquistion of Water Rights Future Water Account I, and 2100 Acre Feet ofPrposed 10 000 Acre Foot Acquistion Program Future Water Account II 25 APPENDIX C ~ City of Greeley November 24. 2014 Mr. John Andrews U DA Natural Resources Conservation Service Denver Federal Center Building 56, Room 2604 PO Box 25426 Denver, CO 80225-0426 RE: The Natural R e ources Con ervation Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Emergency Water hed Protection Program, City of Greeley Final Report for Federal Grant 6S-SBOS-A-12-09 and 6S-SBOS-A-13-0S. Mr. Andrews: Thi letter shall erve as the City of Greeley's ("Greeley") tinal report, which is being submitted accordance with Paragraph VII of Attachment B to Grant Numbers 68-8B05-A-12-09 and 688B05-A-13-05. This report will address the Hewlett Gulch and High Park Fire goals and objectives established and performed in 20 12 through 2104. The report will provide: ( I) a comparison of actual accomplishments with the goals and objectives establ ished for the project, and where project output can be quantified, a computation of the costs per unit of output, and (2) additional pertinent information. All of the goals and objectives set forth under Grant Num ber 68 -8B05-A-12-09 and 68-8B05-A-13 -05 were met. I. Accompli hments (6S-SBOS-A-12-09). The goals of the project for Grant Number 68-8B05-A- 12-09 were met to the satisfaction of Greeley, the City of Fort Collins ("Fort Coll ins") and Natural Re ources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture (NRC ) and the sponsers inspection reports. A. May 2012 Hewlett Gulch Fire The May 2012 Hewlett Gulch Fire bum area is located in Larimer County, Colorado, 20 mi les northwest of Fort Collins. The lands burned included lands lying adjacent to the Milton Seaman Reservoir and up tream of Greeley's Cache la Poudre River ("Poudre River") raw water direct Water and Sewer Department • 1100 10th Street, Suite 300, Greeley, CO 80631 • (970) 350-9811 Fax (970) 350-9805 We promise to preserve and improve the quality of life for G reeley through timely, courteous and cost-effective service. 26 ':;"-:';:':: ,,-,-' - -----=.1: --.. flow diversion to its Bellvue Treatment Plant. After the fire, Greeley assessed the potential for soil erosion, resulting from the fire, to contaminate its raw water supply and determined soil treatment and mitigation was critical to protect its raw water supply. Greeley contacted the NRCS for assistance. Under the Emergency Watershed Protection Program (EWP), the NRCS was authorized to assist Greeley in relieving hazards created by natural disasters that cause a sudden impairment of a watershed. A cooperative agreement established Greeley's and the NRCS' obligations in implementing emergency watershed protection measures to relieve hazards and damages created by the May 2012 Hewlett Gulch Fire. NRCS had estimated the cost of this work to be $650,000. Greeley analyzed additional treatment "betterments" that increased the cost of the fire mitigation project to $710,000. The emergency protection measures consisted of aerial seeding and aerial mulching using NRCS certified straw mulching. In addition, approximately 50 acres of wood shred mulching was applied. The total project mitigation acres were approximately 606 acres. The betterment costs were direct costs to Greeley, which included the 50 acres mulched with wood straw, as per NRCS and United States Forest Service ("U.S. Forest Service") specifications. The NRCS inspected the materials and placement of treatment medium, and assisted in providing project oversight. The contractor, Western States Reclamation, was selected on JUly 5, 2012, to provide services in the form of aerial mulching treatment for the Hewlett Gulch fire. The contractor was held to the NRCS' standards and specifications. The goals and set standards and specifications for the 606 acre treatment were met, as verified by inspectors comprised of representatives from Greeley and the NRCS, and final paper work was submitted (certifications and invoices) by Western States Reclamation. B. 2012 High Park Fire-Phase 1 (2012). Shortly after the May 2012 Hewlett Gulch Fire, the 2012 High Park Fire occurred. The 2012 High Park Fire bum area is also located in Larimer County, Colorado. The 2012 High Park Fire burned both federal and non-federal lands in the basin, including lands lying northwest of Fort Collins and upstream of Greeley'S Bellvue Filter Plant in the Poudre River basin. Greeley again assessed the potential for severe soil erosion resulting from the fire to contaminate its raw water supply and determined soil treatment and mitigation was critical. The federal government mitigated those federal lands lying within the bum area (approximately 50% of the total lands requiring mitigation); other affected entities were required to mitigate the remaining bum area acreage (approximately 50% of the total requiring mitigation or approximately 5,600 acres of severely burned soils). In 2012, Greeley and Fort Collins coordinated aerial mulching and enhanced mitigation in targeted areas of the 2012 High Park Fire. Western States Reclamation completed the first phase of the 2012 High Park Fire Project on or about October 5, 2012, well in advance of November 30, 2012, scheduled deadline. The worked performed during that time period included 16 basins designated as severely burned and having 2 27 --, :.-" . . . ~~ ~ ->--.~.~: '" ' . the highest priority. Approximately 2,900 of severely burned soil was treated and stabilized through aerial straw mulching and seeding. The work performed was inspected by Fort Collins, Greeley and NRCS representatives. The work performed matched the scope of work and budget amounts exactly or $1,255 per acre for seed and mulch. The goals and set standards and specifications for the treatment were met, as verified by Fort Collins, Greeley and NRCS inspectors, and final paper work was submitted (certifications and invoices) by Western States Reclamation. The total project cost in 2012 was approximately $3,900,000; $1,126,000 was reimbursed by the NRCS grant fund. c. Horsetooth Reservoir. The 2012 High Park Fire also burned lands adjoining Horsetooth Reservoir. Horsetooth Reservoir is owned and operated by the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (NCWCD). Approximately 102 acres of land adjoining Horsetooth reservoir required aerial mulching treatment. The acreage was relatively small and would have been difficult to send out for a bid request. As a result, the NCWCD asked for Greeley's assistance in performing mitigation. Greeley agreed to extend its existing contract with the Western States Reclamation to include treatment of affected lands near Horsetooth. In exchange, the NCWCD agreed to reimburse Greeley the total cost of treating those lands adjacent to Horsetooth Reservoir. Western States Reclamation completed this additional work on approxirriately October 11, 2012, well in advance of the November 30,2012, scheduled deadline. The worked perfonned during this time period occurred in the 102 acres within Devil and Empire Gulch Basins. The work performed in Devil and Empire Gulch was inspected by representatives of Lory State Park working with NCWCD. The work performed matched the scope of work and budget amounts exactly or $1,255 per acre for seed and mulch. In addition, the 61.8 acre agricultural straw 'estimate of $925/acre and 40.3 acre wood mulch estimate of $2,950/acres matched the proposed scope for Devil and Empire Gulch. The goals and set standards and specifications for the 102 acre treatment were met, as verified by NRCS inspectors, NCWCD inspectors, and State Park Inspectors working with NCWCD for Devil and Empire Gulches and pl:lperwork submitted (certifications and invoices) by Western States Reclamation. D. 2012 High Park Fire-Phase 2 (2013). In order to increase efficiency of aerial mulching and enhanced mitigation efforts, Greeley, Fort Collins and Larimer County coordinated efforts in 2013 and 2014. Western States Reclamation completed the ~econd phase of the 2012 High Park Fire Project on or about October 30, 2013, well in advance of the November 30, 2013, scheduled deadline. Greeley, together with the guidance, techriical assistance and collaboration of NRCS and USFS staff, conciucted a pilot study in basin Unnamed 21, located above Milton Seaman Reservoir, in the Hewlett Gulch bum area, to evaluate more efficient mitigation methods. Based on results, the mulching method was changed from agricultural straw mulch to wood mulch, and included directional tree felling methods. 3 28 The worked performed during this time period occurred in 24 basins designated as severely burned and identified as having the highest priority by the NRCS and Greeley'S independent consultant, JW Associates. Approximately 11 qo acres of severely burned soil was treated and stabilized through aerial wood mulching methods. Tree felling mitigation measures were applied in approximately 10,000 lineal feet of gullies within these basins. The work performed was inspected by NRCS, Fort Collins, and Greeley representatives. The work performed matched the scope of work and budget amounts exactly, or $1,270 per acre for wood mulch and average approximate $1.75 per lineal foot for directional tree felling. During the initial inspection period, the NRCS recommended that the mulch coverage be increased 10%. Fort Collins, and Greeley agreed, and a change order was issued increasing the unit cost per acre of aerial wood shred mulch by $635 per acre. The goals and set standards and specifications for the treatment were met as verified by Fort Collins, Greeley and NRCS inspectors, and final paper work was submitted (certifications and invoices) by Western States Reclamation. The total project cost in 2013 was $2,082,772.20. E. 2012 High Park Fire-Phase 3 (2014). Due to unexpectedly low bids, Greeley, Fort Collins, and Larimer County had a remaining balance of grant funds after mitigating the targeted bum areas in 2013. In accordance with GM 390.14, Se~tion 512.13(B) of the "National Emergency Watershed Protection Manual", Greeley requested a 220 day "Performance Time Extension" up and through, August 24, 2014. The NRCS awarded an extension for the balance of the grant funds to continue wildfire mitigation and soil stabilization efforts in 2014. Greeley was the lead Sponsor for targeted areas, identified as Phase A, of the 2014 mitigation program, which included private and federal lands managed by the U.S Forest Service. Greeley and the U.S. Forest Service entered into a Challenge Cost Share Agreement to partner in the efforts to treat the watershed located on federal lands and further stabilize the effects of the 2012 High Park Fire. Western States Reclamation completed the third phase of the 2012 High Park Fire Project on or about July 31 2014, well in advance of the August 24, 2014 scheduled deadline. Based upon the success of the 2013 treatment methods, the mulching method employed in 2014 continued as aerial applied wood mulch and directional tree felling methods. The worked performed during this time period occurred in 19 basins designated as severely burned and as highest priority by the NRCS and Greeley's independent consultant JW Associates. Approximately 300 acres of severely burned soil was treated and stabilized through aerial wood mulching methods on federal and non-federal lands and tree felling mitigation measures were applied on approximately 5,100 lineal feet of gullies located within non-federally owned basins. The work perfonned was inspected by NRCS, U.S. Forest Service, Fort Collins, and Greeley representatives. The work performed matched the scope of work and budget amounts 'exactly or $2,345 per acre for wood mulch and average approximate $2.40 per lineal' foot for directional tree felling. The goals and set standards and specifications for the treatment were met, as verified 4 29 by Sponsor and NRCS inspectors, and final paperwork was submitted (certifications and invoices) by Western States Reclamation. F. Additional pertinent information--September 2013 Flood. In September 2013, the consequence of recent monsoon rains and flooding in the drainage basins of the Poudre River and throughout Larimer County intensified the magnitude of the 2012 High Park Fire disaster. On September 13, 2013, Colorado Governor Hickenlooper issued an Executive Order declaring Larimer County, among 13 other counties, a disaster emergency on account of flooding. (Reference Section 512.13(B-5». As a result of these floods, Greeley's Bellvue Treatment Plant Raw Water Pond 2 slope was impacted by major debris. Approximately 300 lineal feet of pond embankment was eroded and required reconstruction. As part of the exigency supplemental work program, the slope restoration work was included as a part of the grant fund reimbursement for $116,778.28. There were no cost overruns associated with the project. G. Project Cost (68-8B05-A-12-09). Through the NRCS EWP Grant 68-8B05-A-12-09, Greeley was initially awarded $500,000 for the Hewlett Gulch Fire mitigation effort. Grant 68-8B05-A-12-09 was subsequently amended to add $1.1 million in 2012 and $3.5 million in 20 l3. There were no cost overruns associated with the project, however, there was acreage reductions on federal and non-federal land based on pre-treatment site inspections and collaborative decisions that treatment in these areas were not required. The total project cost for tree felling and aerial application in 2014 was $760,367.60, which was reduced from the original scope by $155,657 due to the effectiveness of previous mitigation efforts in the basins. The $3.5 million dollars in grant funds were fully applied to reimburse costs incurred by the mitigation efforts for the 2012 High Park Fire. Any residual reimbursement funds remaining after the 2014 work efforts were appli~d to the 2012 unmatched mitigation work. The programs three year goals and objectives were met with no cost overruns and anticipated or lower than anticipated unit cost. H. Post-Fire Mitigation Research. In 2013, Greeley applied for and received a grant for funding from the Colorado Water Resources and Power Development Authority to study and evaluate the effectiveness of wildfire mitigation techniques in the Poudre River Watershed. The Department of Natural Resources, Colorado Water Conservation Board ("CWCB"), was selected to administer the grant funds and agreed, subject to the terms and conditions of the Grant Agreement, to provide Greeley up to $158,360.54 in grant funds. Greeley, through the CWCB grant and intergovernmental agreement, engaged the services of Colorado State University (CSU) to conduct post-fire monitoring research into the effects of mulch treatment on peak flows sediment delivery and water quality in the area of the 2012 High Park Fire. Greeley will continue managing this grant 5 30 -- -;-.-.,:-~ ~ " , '. ,,' r fund and looks forward to providing the NRCS any and all monitoring and effects analysis results it may request. II. Accomplishments and Costs (68-8B05-A-13-05). In 2013, Greeley was awarded a Technical Assistance (TA) Grant (68-8B05-A-13-05) in the amount of $350,000 through the NRCS EWP. Prior to being awarded the grant (i.e., May 2012 to May 2103) all conSUlting, engineering and technical contractor work, including helicopter vendor costs, were paid by Greeley. From May 2013 to August 24, 2014, all technical, helicopter vendor, consulting, and internal Greeley employee labor was reimbursed by the TA Grant. Approximately $340,000 in costs were reimbursement through Grant 68-8B05-A-13-05. From May 2012 to August 2014, Greeley executed, administered and managed approximately thirteen non-federal vendor contracts, Intergovernmental Agreements, conSUlting agreements and grants. These contracts and agreements have included: consulting agreements with private companies such as, JW Associates Inc., Alto Terra, LLC and Eco's System Services LLC for technical expertise, mitigation design and field inspection, and with Non-Profit 501(c)(3) groups, such as Wildland Restoration Volunteers for implementation of mitigation designs. Greeley entered into Intergovernmental Agreements with six separate entities including Fort Collins, TriDistricts, Larimer County, City of Loveland, CWCB, and CSU. Greeley managed three vendor contracts including helicopter services with Traps Aero LTO, and mitigation services provided by Western States Reclamation (this list does not include Western States Reclamation subcontractor list), and legal services provided by Beddingfield Law Office. This list does not include federal grant agreements, cost share agreements and Intergovernmental Agreements with the NRCS and U.S. Forest Service. VI. Conclusion and Gratitude. Greeley would like to thank the NRCS for awarding Grants 68-8B05-A-13-05 and 68-8B05-A12-09. Greeley would also like to express its extreme appreciation for the excellent working relationship and professionalism of its dedicateq staff, and the assistance, guidance and technical expertise provided to Greeley during this period. Only with the help of the NRCS could the water suppliers been able to mitigate the effects of this fire and prot~ct the water supplies that serve the residents and communities of Northern Colorado. ,. ric Reckentine City of Greeley Deputy Director Water Resources 6 31 A B C D E F G H I 2016 2017 _ J K L M N 0 P 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 2023 2024 CITY OF GREELEY - WATER & SEWER DEPARTMENT 10 YEAR CIP for Water and Sewer Proiects - 2015-2024 1 Revised June 3,2014 3.1 2014 2 POTABLE ABLE DEMAND 33 YEAR 2015 _ 4 Projected Peak Potable demand (base) 50.9 51.2 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.1 54.6 55.2 5 DESIGN-Peak potable demand (10% safety) 56.0 56.3 56.6 57.2 57.7 58.3 58.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 32 - - 6 I Bellvue BellvLle System 7 8 Capacity of Bellvue Plant 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 9 Capacity of Bellvue Transmission Lines 26.6 26.6 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Capacity of Bellvue System 26.6 26.6 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 38 10 _ Boyd System 11 12 Capacity of Boyd Plant 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 13 Capacity of Boyd Pipelines 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 14 Capacity of Boyd system 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 64.6 64.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2024 2024 750,000 750,000 750,000 750,000 750,000 Combined System Capacities 15 16 , NI 17 17 WATER 18 18 CONSTRUCTION 405 ._,...._ .. .. . PROJECT TOTALS • 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 f, 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 e . e Milton Seaman Permitting Milton Seaman Permitting Mitigation Windy Gap Firming Non-Potable-general Non-Potable Pump Station UNC 30" Pleasant Valley Pipeline Connection Pump Station at Overland Ponds , ,.. 2015 2016 2017 Enlargement adds raw water storage for drought protection Mitigation and Legal for impacts of Milton Seaman Expansion Firms water rights for 44 Windy Gap units, 7,000 ac-ft storage Future projects using non-potable water for irrigation other uses Irrigate UNC east campus using non-potable water Greeley & Tri Dist line from Pleasant Valley pipeline to Overland ponds Greeley & Tri-Dist PS to remove water from river; hold to time release 2,758,000 3,850,000 21,850,000 750,000 660,000 809,000 300,000 1,250,000 100,000 700,000 1.250,000 258,000 700,000 700,000 60,000 600,000 125,000 ., r r Master Plan Master Plan Master Plan Master Plan Master Plan Master Plan Master Plan Long Term Long Term Long Term Long Term Short Term Mid Term Mid Term 27 27 28 29 30 31 32 28 SCADA System Operations Mid Term 29 Belivue 2mg Clearwell 30 Boyd WTP-UV @ 40mgd Operations Regulatory Short to Long Term Long Term 31 Filter Addition-Boyd 32 Residuals Gravity Thickener-Bellvue Operations Operations Short Term Short Term 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 33 Transmission & Distribution 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Finished storage 10MG 5 MG Treated Water Reservoir Belivue Transmission Line Permitting Bellvue Transmission Program (60") Land Acquisition & Management Distribution Line Extension & Oversizing New Construction Meters Water Taps Water Security Projects Asset Management System Master Plan Operations Master Plan Master Plan Administration Operations & Master Plan Operations Operations Operations Operations Mid to Long Term Short Term Short term Short to Long Term On-going Short Term On-going On-going On-going Short to Long Term 44 44 44 2015 to 2024 19,750,000 750,000 109,000 700,000 300,000 , SCADA system supplies real time operations data 1,025,000 Best practice 10% of max daily production, need 4 mg have 2mg Additional treatment if required. Potential future State requirements 2,874,500 3,100,000 Additional 4 filters will increase operational capacity 2nd residual gravity thickener to respond to increased loads after fires 3,668,000 725,500 305,000 56,500 10,000,000 5,443,000 250,000 29,091,000 1,325,000 2,777,500 350,000 750,000 170,000 171,500 5,443,000 250,000 15,756,000 130,000 829,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 69,500 13,243,000 130,000 1,038,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 57,000 92,000 130,000 51.500 35,000 75.000 17,000 15,000 130,000 117,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 15,000 130,000 117,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 15,000 135,000 125,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 135,000 125,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 92,698,000 92,698,000 25,201,000 25,201 ,000 21,577,000 21 ,sn,OOo 4,048,000 20,239,000 20,239,000 489 ,000 489,000 2,621 ,000 2,621,000 3,812,000 Master Plan shows additional 15 mg near Gold Hill, 5 in 2015, 10 in 2022 Additional storage near Gold Hill Reservoir in 2015 Permitting activities for the Northern Segment Northern Segment will allow limited Ii i gravity service to Gold Hill. ill Easements info into GIS & protects rights, acquire easements Development reimbursement for water line oversizing City installed meters for new development (reimbursed) City installed taps for new development or removing compound taps System security i iidentified after 9/11. Respond to any new requirements Hardware and software for Asset management system started 2013 • _ 100,000 100,000 300,000 2,574,500 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 525,000 2,575,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 135,000 125,000 35,000 75.000 17,000 135,000 125,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 135,000 125,000 35,000 75,000 17,000 11 ,237,000 11,237,000 2,237,000 1,237,000 1,237,000 3,363,000 669,000 10,000,000 32 A 445 5 B 45 46 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 -77 47 E _ - F ___. - ROJECT TOTALS REPLACEMENT 406 Driver Period Maintenance Maintenance/Regulatory Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Master Plan Maintenance Master Plan On-going Short Term On-going Short Term Short to Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Short Term Irrigation ditch system assessments and City maint. Inspect and repair any issues as required by State Maintenance to non.potable irrigation system 1965 structure repairs Bellvue WTP 60 yr old Poudre River turnout ogee weir Review and possible lining of pond after loss analysis Update 2003 version of the master plan started in 2014 Evaluation of alternatives for outlet gates replacement Non-potable distribution analysis based off of Water Resources MP Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Operations Maintenance On-going On-going Short Term Short Term Short to Long Term Short Term Small or unanticipated maintenance projects Small or unanticipated maintenance projects Replacement of filter material recommended every 10 years Replacement of 1998 system due to use and UV degradation Installs a VFD which can be used for two of the 800 HP pumps Replace fliter media support structure Media migrated into underdrain Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Operations On-going On-going On-going On-going On-going Short Term On-going i is D v Ancillary system Improvements (GLIC) High Mountain Reservoirs Rehab. Non-Potable Replacement Rehab. Hourglass Res. Outlet Rehabilitation Poudre River Turnout Rehabilitation Cottonwood Park Pond Lining Water Master Plan Milton Seaman Outlet Works Evaluation Non-Potable Master Plan .. 58 59 60 61 62 63 Bellvue WTP General Rehab. Boyd WTP- General Rehab. Boyd Filter Media Replacement Boyd WTP Tube Settler Replacement Boyd WTP 800 HP Switchgear Replacement Bellvue Filter Media Support Replacement 64 transmission & Distribution 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 Transmission system rehab. Distribution Pipeline Replacements Valve Replacement Fire Hydrant Replacement Meter Replacement Treated Water Reservoir Rehabilitation Instrumentation & Controls 72 73 74 75 76 77 77 Distribution Center Remodel & Rehab. Operations Short Term Replace and upgrade water and meter shops Capital Outlay Replacement Maintenance On-going Replacement of rolling stock: trucks, loaders, etc. Bellvue Raw Water Line Replacement Maintenance Short Term Rehabilitate raw water lines at Bellvue WTP i Bellvue Raw Water Line Sediment Flush Maintenance Short Term Flush sediment from Bellvue WTP raw water lines during 2013 flood II Boyd Raw Water Line Maintenance Maintenance Short Term Rehabilitate Boyd WTP raw water lines, possibly e Ii I line i pipe ance Transmission Customers Re-Route Operations Short Term Existing transmission line customers moved to other water providers ~~~~ 78 78 79 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 79 79 88 88 90 D - - 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 341,000 360,000 365,000 365,000 365,000 365,000 365,000 365,000 365,000 136,000 150,000 400,000 269,000 140,000 47,000 250,000 136,000 386,000 136,000 142,000 142,000 365,000 450,000 142,000 142,000 142,000 142,000 142,000 1,760,000 2,598,000 590,000 2,874,500 415,500 2,751,000 164,000 520,000 590,000 208,500 169,000 242,000 174,000 247,000 179,000 227,000 179,000 227,000 179,000 227,000 179,000 227,000 179,000 227,000 179,000 227,000 179,000 227,000 191,000 2,666,000 415,500 2,560,000 16,290,000 10,843,000 990,000 770,000 4,600,000 2,005,500 1,000,000 1,906,000 1,812,000 99,000 77,000 1,500,000 66,000 100,000 1,752,000 1,831,000 99,000 77.000 500,000 1.286,000 100,000 1,579,000 900,000 99,000 77,000 325,000 36,000 100,000 1,579,000 900.000 99,000 77,000 325,000 86,500 100,000 1,579,000 900,000 99,000 77,000 325,000 88,500 100,000 1,579,000 900,000 99,000 77,000 325,000 88,500 100,000 1,579,000 900,000 99,000 77,000 325,000 88,500 100.000 1,579,000 900,000 99,000 77,000 325,000 88,500 100,000 1.579,000 900,000 99,000 77,000 325,000 88,500 100,000 1,579,000 900,000 99,000 77,000 325.000 88,500 100,000 400,000 6,766,775 13,354,500 250,000 500,000 3,055,000 1,184,500 304,500 250,000 500,000 55,000 854.000 542.000 795,000 5,654,000 583,000 6.854,000 510,000 617,250 400,000 407,500 605,175 605,175 605,175 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 75,978,775 11,260,500 14,025,500 10,487,000 11,516,500 4,591,500 5,148,750 4,889,000 4,686,675 4,686,675 4,686,675 2015 to 2024 3,621,000 450,000 1,402,000 536,000 400,000 269,000 140,000 47,000 300,000 50,000 57 78 89 C - .UB-TOTAL I 406 PROJECTS I IONS Kodak line north south (2014); Kodak line east vest (2015) Replaces lines based on leak history or increase size for operation Replaces failed valves Replace hydrants that do not meet current city standards Replace meters that become inaccurate or fail Gold Hill ill joint repairs and system repairs at Moiser Hill Maintains SCADA systems and control panels 407 •' - - , I qara dI I I 80 Lower Equalizer Master Plan Long Term Reservoir and exchanges for higher yields from GLIC 7,300,000 300,000 81 Overland Trail Master Plan Long Term Greeley and Tri•Districts for approx 2,350 ac ft storage 3,290,000 255,000 82 Development of Parcel B, Poudre Ponds Master Plan Long Term Augmentation storage and return flows 83 Future Water Acquisition Master Plan Long Term Water rights for 10,000 ac-ft 84 Greeley Irrigation Company Change Case Master Plan Long Term " 7,000,000 785,000 2.250,000 5,450,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 3,200,000 58,950,000 6,550,000 6,550,000 6,550,000 6.550,000 6,550,000 6,550,000 6,550,000 6,550,000 6.550,000 Water use court system change from irrigation to municipal use 300,000 150,000 150,000 85 WSSC Change Case Master Plan Long Term Water use court system change from irrigation to municipal use 100,000 100,000 86 Larimer & Weld Companies Change Case 87 Leprino Produced Water Claim Master Plan Master Plan Long Term Long Term Water use court system change from irrigation to municipal use Water use court system to claim credit for Leprino produced water i • - 600,000 500,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 150,000 200,000 150,000 76,490,000 8,130,000 7,425,000 7,275,000 7,710,000 6,925,000 6,925,000 19,000,000 6,550,000 6,550,000 245,166,775 44,591,500 43,027,500 21,810,000 39,465,500 12,005,500 14,694,750 27,701,000 22,473,675 13,473,675 89 90 - WATER TOTALS (405+406+407) 33 5,923,675 - AA BB 91 91 91 92 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 W SEER SEWER ~~ 94 1 D 1 E F F G iH iT T T iK G H I J K iL L _ i_ M iN M N i 00 i P P PROJECT TOTALS !QIA!& Collection 95 N.,- Greelev Greeley Sewer :: 'ewer Phase II 96 Additional Sanitary 9' ianllary Sewer MH's 97 Lift Station Upgrades; & & Expansion Llh Stallon I I 98 Sewer Taps 9B raps 99 Poudre• Trunk Phase II 83rd Ave Sewer Project 100 B3rd 100 Ave Sewer Driver Period Master Plan Plan Masler Master Plan Masler Master Plan MaSler to Long Term Mid 10 long Tenn Short Term ho" Tenn Mid to Long Term Mid. long Tenn Short Term ho" Tenn Mid to• Long long Term Mid 10 to Long Term lana Tenn Regulatory Master MaSler Plan Regulatory Long Term long rerm Long long Term Long Term long Tenn Operations Master Plan Masler Operation 2015 to 2024 2015 ~ 2015 7,777,500 3,442,000 Description Provides; serv'ce service north of the Poudre 85 nMh ollhe Poud,e and along HWY B5 I ; added Manholes added fo, for operal'on operation and maintenance, beneUts benefits Added capad capacity in syslem system for anticipated developmentI during ,ehab rehab IAdded ', 'n ' Sewer taps for new development (reimbursed) ~Iapsfo'new~ Provides service west of 83rd Ave to 120th Ave --w;Ovides ~ Provides; serv'ce service f,om from 10th SI St and 83rd to Poud,e Poudre Trunk Trunk Phase II B3,d Ave 10 II 340,000 34O,OOD 97.000 97,000 500.000 500,000 250,000 100,000 ~ 2,077,500 iil;OOO 10,000 2016 4,335,500 27;000 27,000 250,000 To, OoO 10,000 4S5,OOO 465,000 961,000 2017 2018 2019 . 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2023 2024 27,000 nooo 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 10,000 10:000 ~O 1,612.500 96,000 mooo 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 BSS:ooo 865,000 Treatment 101 101 105 105 106 106 107 107 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 109 Sewer Collection Rehabilitation 10s iSewer 110 Trenchiess Main and Collector Rehab I~ 111 11 Highland Capacity Improvements 112 1 Manhole Rehabilitation 113 1 Lift I Station [ Rehabilitation I I 114 Manhole & Pipe Replacement 114 ~ 115 Wastewaterr Flow 1 ~ Flow MonitoringI Program Program 116 59th Ave & F Street Sewer Line Repair 102 Securltv Security Projects Prolecls (1 @ 100 dia) 100dla) 103 New Primary Clarifier (1 104 Nitrification Project Phase II ll I , Prolecl , System securit, security idenllUed identified aller after 9/1 9/11. IS,stem 1, Respond ~ espond 10 to an, any new Irequirements When flows require clarifier expands hydraulic ire add ,claritier expa~ .h )'draullc capacity ofI WPCF I Nutrient regulations for treatment,, 20171s 2017 is design 12012 Nutrlenl I i ; for' 250,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 ~;'~~-1-_= 25""0=00+..! 2:=;5"='000-l--..!5 225,000 ,.:!:55;'='O ,OOO:-+-~ 25;',O~IOO~0+-.::25;= "OI000:C..-1--'2=5 ; "='000-l-_=25;"O=00+..!2=5;,,~OIOO~O+-,-fat~oOo 4,985,000 5,596,000 SUB-TOTAL 402 PROJECTS " , U , AL402 :TS 10S ~ SEWER ______________ ?? <.7 nnn 22,587,000 515,000 ', •• ,.on 3,824,000 5,112,500 5,112,500 ••••• nn 2,285,500 25,000 ~ 235,000 4,750.000 297,000 297,000 4,812,000 5,081,000 927,000 927,000 •5,143,000 ,n n, S2,000 62,000 S2,000 62,000 S2,000 62,000 PROJECT PROJECT TOTALS ~ REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT 403 403 Collection CoIl Driver Period Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Short Tenn Term Sho" Short Term Lines 6" iden'ified identified for system rehab Unes smaller smalle, than Ihan S" fa, replacement I II and s,stem ,ehab I Inpipe lnpipe Cure-in-Place I ~ repair of 01 sanitary system Master capacity Maste, Plan identified sewer, that Ihal does not nol meet meel city Cil, std capacily Repair corroded manholes material ~ I ~ with cementitious i s malerial Rehab existing 1111 lift station Rehabexisting slallon and update updafe to current standards MH lids replaced ,epfaced during city cil, street slree' overlays ove,'ays Inslall flow mefers lrunk lines for flow monitoring I i Install meters on trunk Repai, of 01 sewer sewe, crossing Sheep Draw drainage damaged and exposed Repair Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance/Operations Maintenance Maintenance On-going Short Sho" Term Short Sho" Term Short Sho" Term Short Sho" Term Short Sho" Term Term Short Sho" Term Term Short Sho" Term Tenn Short Sho" Term Tenn Short Sho" Term Term Short Sho" Term Term Short Sho" to 10 Long long Term Tenn Short Sho" Term Tenn Short Sho" Term Term Small or maintenance projects 0' unanticipated i i prolects MP i indentified replacement1of 1985 digester floating covers ii 0119B5 digeste, floallno IReplace exi,lIng roof rool based on age and multiple muiliple leaks Replace existing MP identified anticipated replacement 1995 centrifuge, ~enllUed' f , of 011995 1995 pumps which are beginning frequent repairs I l to fa have more frequen, MP identified replacement IMP Idenfllied anticipated , f ,ofof1985 19B5 generator MP identified 1980 generator IMP fdenlilied anticipated replacement f : of~~ MP identified IMP idenliried anticipated replacement 1 •of ..A1994 1994 Barscreen MP identified IMP Idenm'ed anticipated replacement f ' ofof1996 1995 pump MP identified system due 'a to harsh idenlified anticipated replacement I !S,stem harst environment I IMP MP identified anticipated replacement IMP 1 I of 01 Boilerslosing il I heating ability Add digester capacity IAdd Hauled waste receiving ; to fa reduce ,educe odor ado, ~wasfe 'eceiving system syslem modificatiuons i Clarifier pumping evaluation and thickening I nand i i centrifuge replacement I San. Sewer 133 13: ISan, Sewer Mast. MaSl, Plan Plan Update Updale Master Masler Plan Plan Verify I Masterr Plan Plan Goals Goals 134 CapitalI Outlay I Replacement Maintenance On-going Solids Handlingi& & TreatmentIMP MP 135 WPCFFSoiidS Master Masler Plan Plan Verify I Masterr Plan Goals OperationsIMaintI Mgmt 136 WPCF Electronic Mgml System S,stem I Operations Long long Term Tenn 108 loa 1 CONSTRUCTION 402 CONSTRUCTION 101 102 103 104 , ::; ~Repalr On-going Short Tenn Term Sho" On-going Short Tenn Term Sho" On-going Short Tenn Term Sho" 2015 to 2024 2015 2016 2017 2,091,000 4,500,000 1,480,500 740,000 1,173,000 600,000 250,000 369,500 460,000 450,000 364,000 450,000 130,000 60,000 531,500 60,000 50,000 318,000 450,000 1,350,500 60,000 110,000 60,000 50,000 2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 2023 2B9,OOO 289,000 450:000 450,000 110,000 450,000 110,000 450.000 450,000 110,000 450.000 450,000 110,000 110,000 450.000 450,000 110,000 110,000 450,000 ~~:~ 60.000 60,000 SO,OOO 60,000 SO,OOO 60,000 SO.OOO 60,000 60.000 60,000 SO,OOO 60,000 SO,OOO 60,000 &60,000 ,000 5C ,OOO 50,000 SO.OOO 60,000 50,000 SO,OOO 60,000 SO.OOO" 60,000 60,000 SO,OOO 60,000 SO,OOO 60,000 1,000 lB9,OOO 1,793,000 13S,OOO 311,000 189.000 121,000 136,000 1,333,000 126,000 1,207,000 77,000 77,000 1,764,800 "764,8cm~~____~____~____~____ 935,100 455,000 4Ss.ooo 387,500 61,500 326,000 3,B77,500~~____~~ 6I,~500~~3~26 . 6~OO~ 1,002,000 632,000 1,344,000 135,000 135,000 1,209,000 1,209,000 429,000 68,000 361,000 1,333,000 131,000 131,000 2,530,000 179,000 2,351,000 ISI,OOO 161,000 175,000 175,000 175,000 175,000 175,000 175,000 200,000 531,500 60,000 .- 50,000 369,500 2018 2024 110,000 450,000 Treatment 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 117 132 133 134 135 136 .n 1<:..... 10<; 132 137 C 'r ~ :::t = Projects 118 1 General Rehabilitation I Prolecls 119 Primary Digester Cover Replacements 119 New Roof 120 12( INew Roof"- Dewatering Bldg Bldo 121 121 Dewatering Centrifuge 122 Replace Influent 1221Repface Inffuenl Raw Raw Sewage Sewaoe Pumps (3) 123 900 KW Generator 12319oOi<iYc 124 450 KW Co-Gen Unit 124 ~ Rotomat Barsceens, @ 125 f 251RoiDriiiii' @ Headworks (3) Dewatered Sludge Cake Pump 126 f2S~ WPCF Digester Gas Mixing System 127 1271WPCFOiiiesler GaSMiiiiiiQ SYSlem Boiler Replacement 128 1 WPCFFBOliM 129 1 Convert1 Sludge Siudae Storage Sloraae Tank Tank to 10 Primary Primary Digester o lgeSler WPCF Rotamat Septage ReceivingI Tank 130 13( ~ Tank WPCF Primary 131 131 1WPCF Prlmarv Clarifier Cfarlfler Pumping Pumping & & Thickening f 'li995 raarmer n.hore Studies & Others SUB-TOTAL TS ISU", , U 'AL 403 403 PROJECTS '~~~';;:~~ Update 2008 IUpdafe 200B Collection i n Master MaSle' Plan Plan ReplacementIf 01 of ,oll'ng rolling stock trucks," loaders, lo.ders , etc, afc, Update 2011 IUpdafe 2011 WPCF Solids, Handling H.ndling &• Treatment Tre.fmen' Master MaSler Plan Plan Captures information in digital digilal and and retrevable I, form fo,m i and stores, in ~ 175,000 175,000 175,000 175,000 79,800 -+____~-;~ ,B~01~1~ ,SB55~ , OI~COO~____~____+-__~ 1,685.000 i35.i"DO 34 ,BOI 34,800 32 ,001 32,000 ____-+____~____ 02.000 .JlOQ.300 900.300 423.000 423,000 ~ ~~ 5S ,OOI 56,000 ~ ____ ____~~~+-__~ 1,002,000 1,002.000 57S.000 576,000 ~~~~ ~~=-+~~~fOC~mo~~----~----~~----+-~1 26"~000~~1.2~077,,OC~~ ~ 0------~----4-----~ 126,000 1,207,000 , ~~;;~~ 9, 0:000 300,000 3f 1,938,365 1,138.365 311 ,000 301,000 172,000 1'2,000 " .. 379,865 379.8s5 45,000 --.s:ooo 30C ,OOO 300,000 360,000 78,500 78,500 75 ,000 75,000 200,000 200:000 200,000 200,000 20C ,000 200,000 20C ,000 200,000 301,000 172,000 172,000 28,061,765 3,699,865 7,069,000 3,506,500 1,123,500 96S,000 966,000 , o.','nn 1,683,600 5,846,300 , n« nnn 1,055,000 2,057,000 1,055,000 SEWER TOTALS (402+403)= 50,648,765 7,523,865 12,181,500 12,181,500 5,792,000 2,050,500 6,109,000 1,745,600 1,745,600 5,908,300 1,117,000 2,354,000 5,867,000 WATER & SEWER TOTALS= 295,815,540 52,115,365 52,'15,365 55,209,000 27,602,000 27,602,000 41,516,000 18,114,500 18,114,500 16,440,350 33,609,300 23,590,675 15,827,675 11 ,790,675 11,790,675 1 dli 139 i 140 114C 34 Water and Sewer Preliminary Budget Discussion April 15, 2015 2003 Water Master Plan ~ Based on City Comprehensive Plan ~ Discussed Key Polices ~ Driving Factors ~ Changes to Options available to meet new demands ~ Integrated Strategies (Capital Plan) ~ Need for an annual review 35 Water Master Plan Review ~ Key policies o o Growth will pay its own way Water dedication (currently under review) ~ Driving factor - Growth ~ Changes o o Informational water budget Capital • • • • Milton Seaman expansion Water treatment plant rehab / expansion Chimney Park pumping station Water acquisition account 2 Minimum Rates - Water ~ Depreciation ~ Debt Service ~ Current operations and maintenance 36 2016 Budget Drivers ~ Succession planning o o ~ Water plants rehabilitation and upgrades o o o ~ Create a pathway for grooming new leaders Minimal rate impact Needs assessment ongoing Additional $14 - $18 million needed in Water Rehabilitation capital budget Minimal to no rate impact - large rehabilitation fund balance Poudre River Environmental Enhancements 2016 Budget Drivers ~ Facilities plan o ~ Boyd water quality o o ~ ~ Possible land acquisition - Bestway .. .. Analyze options for source water quality mitigation Placeholder construction cost of $1 million (2017) Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system improvements - $2 million Upper Equalizer - $4 million (possible expenditure in 201 5) o Alternative to Lower Equalizer 37 2016 Budget Drivers ~ Continue critical projects o o Milton Seaman Reservoir permitting Bellvue pipeline northern segment . Phase 1 higher than est. - extra ~ $8 mill ion for project • Rate impact: approximately 1% spread over 10 years o ~ Windy Gap Sewer o o o No significant new projects Continue WPCF rehab projects North Greeley sewer phase 2 38 CITY COUNCIL WORKSESSION City of Greeley April 28, 2015 Item Number 2 6:00 - 6:20 p.m. Overview of the Annual Growth & Development Report Contact Brad Mueller, Community Development Director 350-9786 Background The Community Development Department, Long-Range Planning Division, annually produces a report that documents historic residential growth in the city and provides a projection of development for the next five years. This report has traditionally been produced in support of development of the five-year Capital Improvements Plan and is provided to departments for such. However, it also is a useful tool for other types of longrange planning, as well as a beneficial resource for the public. It is often referred to economic development prospects, marketing firms, realtors, developers, and others who make inquiry with the Department. Staff will present the major findings of the report at the Worksession. Council Direction Requested None, informational only. Decisions Options None, informational only. Attachments 2015 Annual Growth & Development Report 39 2015 ANNUAL GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECTIONS REPORT Prepared in Support of the Capital Improvement Planning Process City of ~~ Greeley Staff John Barnett, Long Range Planner Brad Mueller, Community Development Director 40 February, 2015 Contents Executive summary ...................................................................................................................................... iii Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 II Methods ................................................................................................................................................ 2 III Residential Growth ............................................................................................................................... 4 . IV Population estimate .............................................................................................................................. 8 V Employment ........................................................................................................................................ 10 VI Land supply ......................................................................................................................................... 12 VII Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 16 VIII Projections ...................................................................................................................................... 23 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................. 27 ii 41 Executive summary The Annual Growth and Development Projections Report estimates new residential in the near future. This report provides a "snapshot" ofthe growth anticipated on January 1 of each year. Over many years, the number of new single family homes has significantly exceeded the number of multi-family units. During the most recent recovery, however, the number of multifamily units has greatly exceeded the number of single family units. In 2014, building permits were issued for 787 new dwellings of which 361 were single-family and 426 were multi-family. The Greeley Weld County MSA civilian labor force grew by 8.90%, the highest of any Metropolitan Statistical Area in the state. The number of employed people also jumped by 12.54% in the Greeley MSA, also the highest in the state. At the same time, the unemployment number and rate both declined substantially. Oil and gas drilling activity in Weld County has continued with little apparent effect from the recent price drop of oil. While there is a clear downward trend in oil prices in late 2014, there is no clear trend yet in active drilling rigs in Weld County. The price seems to have stabilized between $45.00 and $55.00 per barrel during the last month, but it may be too soon to tell whether or not this apparent stabilization is long-term. Despite the lack of employment decline, future curtailment of drilling activity remains a concern since the drilling and fracking of each well employs approximately 100 to 125 people. At the current rate of 361 single family dwellings per year, current activity in platting and development of lots is sufficient to maintain an adequate flow of lots for the next three and a half years. For this growth to occur, all approved lots need to be developed. To supply lots for future building, additional land needs to be brought forward through the platting process. There are a total of 407 multi-family units under construction as of Feb. 15, 2014. In addition, there are permit ready sites for an additional 60 units and 433 are currently under site planning or zoning review. The additional multi-family sites, if they are all approved, should be sufficient for approximately one year of new multi-family units. Between 1991 and 2014, growth rates ranged from a low of 0.12% to a high of 4.14%. The distribution of these growth rates is highly bimodal with lower growth rates occurring during and immediately following recessions and higher growth rates occurring during recovery periods. If oil prices rebound and stabilize at $70 to $75 per barrel by mid to late 2015, and if this stability continues throughout the next five years without a recession, then a continued growth rate averaging around 2% is likely. It is expected that trends in place will continue as they have since 2012. Unless oil prices decline much more than they already have, Greeley's iii 42 growth rat e is not likely to be affected . Long term diversification of Northern Colorado's economy is expected to continue, and this has, and will continue to have, a positive effect on Greeley. We can expect between 900 and 1,000 permits for new housing units to be issued during each of the next three years. As land with water already dedicated is absorbed and Single-fam ily housing becomes less affordable, market forces will likely mean that a higher proportion of these housing units will be multi -family because of the lower cost per unit of raw water and tap fees . Year-end forecast housing units 2015 through 2020 46,000 Growth follows a typical increasing rate during recovery and dips into recession between2019 and 2020 . 45,000 44,000 --------------------- III .~ 43,000 ~ 42,068 ~ 42,000 'iii ~ ~ 41,000 ttl "0 40,000 I- 39,000 38,000 37,000 l 37,620 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20 20 Projected Split of Multi-Family and Single Family Housing Tota l New Housing Perm its Single Family Permits Multi-Family Perm its 2014 787 361 426 2015 922 423 499 2016 983 451 532 2017 927 390 537 2018 412 90 322 2019 417 95 322 2020 787 95 692 iv 43 I Introduction The Annual Growth and Development Projections Report estimates how much new residential development will occur in the near future within the City of Greeley, Colorado. The report examines historic and recent development and annexation activity, and uses apparent trends, along with local and regional projections, to forecast building activity in the coming years. Thi s report is intended to provide a "snapshot" of the growth anticipated at the beginning of each year based on: 1) The actual history of growth and development during previous years; 2) Regional economic projections; 3) Permit ready lots; and 4) Other factors that have the potential to affect expected trends. Greeley grew significantly in 2014 as the economic recovery took off. There was significant growth in the size of the workforce and the number of persons employed as well as a significant decline in the unemployment rate and the number of persons unemployed. Much of this was driven by increased oil and gas drilling activity as hydraulic fracking technology was deployed . A 50% decline in the price of oil throughout the second half of 2014, however, raises questions about the amount of growth and development we can expect in 2015 and over the next five years. Some sources such as Colorado State University's Regional Economist Mark Shields believe the price of oil will stabilize after mid -year at $70.00 to $75 .00 per barrel. If this happens, Greeley can expect continued population growth following recent trends . If, however, the price drops and stays below $40.00 to $45 .00 per barre" we can expect a drop in the growth rate as oil and gas drilling activity is curtailed . Community Development staff will be monitoring this situation closely and will prepare updates to this report as appropriate. There is anecdotal evidence that drilling activity may be slowing, but so far this is not reflected in data ava il able f or Greeley or Weld County. Thi s report is part of a three phase analysis used to develop the City's five-year Capital Improvements Plan {ClPL a mechanism for meeting the service and infrastructure needs of future development while maintaining existing service levels and managing community resources . The other parts of this analysis are the annual population estimate and the mapping of adequate public facilities . Through the CIP, the City also estimates development fee revenue that may be ava ilable to meet growth demands. City departments recommend projects which may then be incorporated into the City budgeting process . Future infrastructure upgrades and publ ic fac ility construction are scheduled based on available resources. 1 44 II Methods The methods used in this report include both quantitative projections and qualitative fore casting and are employed in a four-step process . Staff uses a variety of information sources, including building permit data, information from the real estate and building communiti es, and economic data from regional and state organizations. Step 1 The first st ep uses historic home-building activity trends and projects growth for the following yea r, assuming continuation of recent trends . Using records from 1991 through 2014 provides a 24-year record of homebuilding activity that extends through high and low growth periods . This record covers three recessions and their recoveries. It also captures trends driving homebuilding including the increase in recent oil and gas drilling employment, increased employm ent in agricultural processing, the collapse ofthe so called "housing bubb le", the trend to "drive 'till you qualify" , and other trends during that time. This historic permit data is used to proj ect high, medium, and low projections of new units expected to be constructed for the next five years assuming current trends continue . Step 2 The next step is to identify regional economic trends that will affect where the actual number of new pe rmits will fall within the confidence interval projected from historic trends. These include an assessment of current regional and Greeley employment history, a review of the Colorado Business Economic Outlook published by the leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado, and the Northern Colorado Economic Forecast sponsored by the Montfort College of Business at Northern Colorado University. In addition, staff al so considers state hou sing and population projections generated by the Colorado Department of local Affairs (DOlA), more localized population projection s published by the North Front Range Metropol itan Planning Organization (NFRMPO), the Greeley Urban Renewal Authority' s (GURA) annual multi-family vacancy survey, input from the building community and plann ing staff on upcoming projects, and information from the real estate community. Specific assumptions are noted throughout the report. Step 3 The third step is to prepare an inventory of permit-ready lots and lots in the review process that will likely become permit-ready within the forecast period. Step 4 The final step is to examine other factors and trends that could affect expected homebuilding trends. These include the recent change in the ratio of multi -family to single-fam ily housing, 2 45 recent changes in the price of oil discussed above, and recent increases in the cost of raw water in Northern Colorado. The qualitative forecasting portion of the process involves thoughtfully choosing a reasonable growth scenario for the report year and the 5-year ClP cycle based on observational information. The process includes a review of projections found in previous Growth and Development Reports and the Greeley 2060 Comprehensive Plan, GURA's annual multi-family vacancy survey, as well as input from the building community and planning staff on upcoming projects. During this fourth and final step in the projection/forecasting process, staff also considers regional economic forecasts, state housing and population projections generated by the DOlA, more localized population projections published by the NFRMPO and information from the real estate community. Specific assumptions are noted throughout the report. 3 46 Residential Growth III Greeley's residential growth has been occurring in waves ranging from approximately 0.5 % to 4% per year with an average of about 1.9%. Figure 1 shows 24 years of new residential building permits. After relatively modest but steady increases in home construction throughout most of the 1990s, Greeley began to experience annual permit growth rates of nearly 4% beginning in 1999. Th e high growth rate peaked in 2002 with 1,300 new residential units, translating to an actual growth rate of 4.14% over 2001. Beginning in 2004, Greeley experienced five years of declining new construction followed by three years of stagnant low level housing construction. During the mortgage crisis and Great Recession, Greeley experienced limited build ing. During that time, foreclosure rates and unemployment were among the highest in the state. Permits for new housing reached a low of 42 units in 2011. Beginning with a small increase in building activity in 2012, Greeley experienced three years of significant growth in new housing con struction . In 2015, there were 787 permits issued for new residential units (Community Development Department, 2014) . Figure 1: New Residential Units 1991-2014 1400 1,300 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Mix of single and multifamily units Since 2012, most of the new home construction consisted of multifamily units as shown in Tab le 1 and Figure 2. Over many years, the number of new single family homes has significantly exceeded the number of multi-family units. During the most recent recovery, however, the number of multi-family units has greatly exceeded the number of single family un its (Community Development Department, 2014). 4 47 TABLE 1: NEW HOUSING MIX Year Single family units Multi-family Units 63 46 80 35 29 55 155 361 42 275 426 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 5 7 Total 92 46 85 42 97 430 787 Figure 2: Single-Family and Multi-Family Units 450 400 350 • Single-Family Housing Units 300 o Multi-F amily Housing Units 250 200 150 100 50 0 ~q, 1"CS ~OJ 1"CS ~<:) 1,,<:) ~'\. 1,,<:) ~1" 1,,<:) ~ 1,,<:) There are a number of possible reasons for change in housing mix. One of these reasons is that financing became available for multi-family developments sooner after the Great Recession than for single family developments. In addition, because of the large number of foreclosures, banks were slow to resume lending for single family mortgages. In addition, many families who had lost their homes to foreclosure could no longer qualify for mortgages either because of low credit scores or the loss of down payment from the sale of their former home. Many families who lost their homes through foreclosure often became tenants in rental housing. 5 48 A long term trend in the American economy is the decline in real wages as higher wage jobs are lost to automation and the international labor market and replaced by lower wage jobs in service industries. Lower wage workers are less likely to be able to afford the mortgage payments on single-family homes. Many of the recently created high wage jobs are in the energy industry which is subject to rapid changes in unemployment. Many energy workers may be reluctant to invest in single-family housing even if they can afford it because they may need to relocate within a short timeframe. The socio-economic status of potential first-time buyers has also shifted significantly-in part because of the Great Recession and partly because of changes in life style aspirations. The Millennial Generation, while by no means uniform, is substantially different than its parents or even than the generation between. While they are the most educated and tech -savvy generation in history, many of them are heavily burdened with higher education debt. Additionally, many of them delayed obtaining drivers' licenses, preferring instead urban lifestyles built around walking, cycling, and mass transit as the primary modes of local transportation. Many of this generation would prefer to live in multi-family Table 2: Housing Vacancy Rates Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multi-Family Vacancy Rate Single Family Vacancy Rate 8.6% 5.6% 4.6% 3.3% 3.6% 4.9% 4.5% 4.1% 3.3% 2.9% housing amenity rich in amenities. Table 2 and Figure 3 show the vacancy rates for single and multi-family housing. Since 2010, the multi-family vacancy rate has declined by 58% from 8.6% to 3.6% (Greeley Urban Renewal Authority, 2014) . A healthy multi-family vacancy rate is considered to be 5% since this gives prospective tenant a reasonable chance at finding a suitable housing unit while giving landlords a reasonable chance at renting any vacant units fairly quickly. At an optimal 5% vacancy rate in multi-family there would be 664 vacant units. The actual 3.6 % vacancy rate is 478 units. The supply equals 72% of the demand. This indicates the need for 186 additional multifamily units to meet current demand without any population growth or new household formation . The single family vacancy rate has declined by 41%, from 4.9% to 2.9% (Water and Sewer Department, 2014) . A healthy Single-family inventory is considered to be an inventory of housing for sale equal to the demand for purchase of homes within 6 months (Pettigrew, 2015). The number of vacant single-family units can be used as a rough approximation of the inventory of for-sale units-some of these are vacant rental units and not for-sale and some single-family units are for-sale but are not vacant. A 2.9 % vacancy rate equals 706 units. A 6 month supply would equal 1121 Single-family units. The supply approximately equals 63.0 % of the demand 6 49 for single-family units. This indicates the need for 415 additional single-family housing units to meet current demand without any population growth or new household formation . 10.0% Fi ure 3: Housin Vacanc Rate • Multi-Fam ily Vacancy Rate o Single Fam ily Vacancy Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ~C) ~'). '\,C) '\,C) ~ ~'\, '\,C) '\,C) ~ '\,C) Table 3: Change in Housing Activity 2008-2014 (-) Demolitions (=) Net Units Beginning of next year Growth Rate Year Construction Only (Units) Percent Change in Construction Housing Units Annexed Additional Housing (Construction + Annexation) 2008 86 -48.8% 3 89 36,076 0 36,076 0 .25% 2009 45 -47 .7% 1 46 36,122 9 36,113 0 .10% 2010 84 86 .7% 0 84 36,197 8 36,189 0.21% 2011 42 -50.0% 0 42 36,231 0 36,231 0.12% Gross Units 2012 92 119.0% 0 92 36,323 10 36,313 0 .23% 2013 430 367.4% 1 431 36,744 3 36,741 1.18% 2014 787 83.5% 1 790 37,534 0 37,534 2.15% 7 50 IV Population estimate Sin ce 1991, Greeley's estimated population has grown 55.8% from 64,832 to 101,048 people. Figure 5 shows Greeley' s population growth from 1992 to 2015 . The growth rate has fluctuated bet ween 0.10% and 4.13 %, averaging 1.88% and with a standard deviation of 1.06%. Since 1991, Greeley' s population has grown by an average of 1.9 % per year (Commu nity Develop ment Department, 2015 ). Table 4: 2015 Population Estimate Year Single family dwellings (SFD) Single family occupancy rate (SFDocc) Multifamily dwellings (MFD) Multi-family Occupancy rate (MFDocc) Average household size (AHS) Population housed in University on-campus housing Total Population 2015 24,338 0.971 13,284 0.964 2.7 2665 101,048 2014 23,976 0.967 12,856 0.097 2.7 2362 98,423 2013 23,743 0.967 12, 581 0.954 2.7 2923 97,320 201 2 23,688 0.959 12,539 0.944 2. 7 2798 96,093 2011 23,646 0.95 5 12,539 0.091 2.7 2861 95,453 2010 23,570 0.951 12, 539 0.914 2.7 2894 94,358 Popul ation Estim ate Based on Modified Housing Method (2010) Estim ated Population =[( SFD x SFDocc ) + ( MFD x MFDocc )] x AHS + Up 8 51 Figure 5: Estimated population 1992-2015 105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 ~"v ~ ~t;>. ~ ~'o ~ Figure 6 shows that the total hous ing stock plus building permits and annexations and subtracting demolitions has increased from 24,012 to 37,534. Figure 6: Greeley's Housing Units 1992 to 2015 40,000 . , - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 35,000 + - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 30,000 + - - - - - - - - - - - - - 25,000 + - - - - 20,000 15,000 9 52 V Employment Employment continues to improve throughout Colorado, especially in Northern Colorado. The civilian labor force grew by 2.19% statewide while the Greeley MSA, which includes all of Weld County, civilian labor force grew by 8.90%, the highest of any Metropolitan Statistical Area in the state as shown in Table 5. The total number of employed people also jumped substantially, with a statewide growth of 4.08% statewide and 12.54% in the Greeley MSA, also the highest in the state. At the same time, the unemployment number and rate declined substantially, both at the state and local level. Table 5: Employment Statistics for Colorado MSAs December 2014 % % Civilian Labor Force Change over Dec. 2013 Employed Change over Dec. 2013 BoulderLongmont 184,991 1.98% 178,992 Colorado Springs 306,256 -2 .00% Denve rAurora 1,458,610 Fort CollinsLoveland Unemployed over Dec. 2013 Unemployment Rate Change over Dec. 2013 3.91% 5,999 -34.33% 3.2% -36 .00% 290,201 0.74% 16,055 -34.31% 5.2% -33.33 % 1.62% 1,400,510 4.12% 58,100 -35 .60% 4.0% -36 .51% 186,778 3.25% 180,570 5.48% 6,208 -36.13% 3.3% -38 .89% Grand Junction 75,937 -1.89% 72,378 1.25% 3,559 -39 .84% 4.7% -38 .16% Greeley 135,279 8.94% 129,848 12.42% 5,431 -37.37% 4.0% -42.86% Pueblo 74,265 -1.22% 70,017 6.08% 4,248 -38 .95% 5.7% -38 .71% MSA % Change Colorado 114,350 -31.52 % 4.1% -32 .79% 2,806,780 2.26% 2,692,430 4.45% Totals https:!lwww.colmigateway.com/analyzerlsession/session .asp?cat=CUR PROFILES AREA updated for 2015 on Feb . 5,2015 Table 6 shows the year-over-year comparison of employment in the Greeley MSA (Colorado Departm ent of Labor and Employment, 2014). It shows significant increases in the size of the workforce and total number of persons employed , as well as significant decreases in the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate. The 8.9% increase in the civilian 10 53 labor force includes immigration to the Greeley area, commuting from outside the Greeley area, and people returning to the labor force who were not included in recent reporting. Examining the growth in the Greeley labor force when compared to the surrounding Metropolitan Statistical Areas appears to indicate that there could be significant pent up regional demand for housing. This demand may currently be addressed through doubling up on Table 6: Greeley MSA Year to Year Employment Comparison Dec. 2012 Dec .2013 Dec . 2014 Civilia n labor force 119,038 124,178 135,279 Number Employed 108,261 115,507 128,848 Number unemployed 10,777 8,671 5,431 Unemployment Rate 9.1% 7.0% 4.0% Table 7 shows the employment growth for several large public sector employers from 2000 to 2015 . This growth, while significant, is at a slower rate than the private sector employment growth (Community Development Department) . Table 7: Selected public employers budgeted full time employees, 2010 to 2015 Full-Time Equivalents 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 City of Greeley 860.5 847 859 863 .3 832* 857 .25 Weld County 1210 1225 1228 1229 1397 1440 Eaton School District NA 188 180 180 184 191 Greeley Evans School District 2386 2242 2290 2296 2293 2178 Win dso r School District NA 598 610 616 603 607 Aims Community College 443 419 410 460 454 448 City of Eva ns 90 89 88 88 88 88 * City employee numbers do not include 44 employees who were transferred to the Emergency Commun ication Center. 11 54 VI Land supply An important factor in projecting building permits is an examination of the supply of lots. As existing developed lots are absorbed by building activity, are they being adequately replaced by developed and platted lots? Table 8 shows the inventory of developed and final platted single family lots as of the end of 2013 and 2014. Single family lots are rapidly being absorbed and built upon. With the increase in home building Table 8: Potential Single Family Units Based on Buildable Lots Single Family Lots in 2015, several subdivisions were approved through final platting, developed and Approval Status 2013 2014 had many homes 656 651 completed . The net change Created via demolition since 2012 13 13 Total permit ready lots 669 664 620 646 1289 1310 Approved projects with infrastructure installed (permit-ready) Approved projects with incomplete infrastructure Net permit-ready Lots + platted Lots in available lots between 2013 and 2014 is a 16 % increase in total lots with a 1% decrease in finished lots. Developers completed the horizontal infrastructure on 403 additional lots in 2014, while builders took out permits on 361 building permits. At the end of 2014, 664 developed lots remained available for builders. During 2014, final plats were recorded containing 439 lots, many of which are likely to be fully developed with all required improvements (permit-ready) during 2015. Despite the increase in building permits in 2014, the supply of platted lots actually increased, while the supply of finished lots decreased by less than 1%. At the current rate of building, 361 single family dwellings per year, the current activity in platting and development of lots appears to be sufficient to maintain an adequate flow of lots for the next three and a half years. For this growth to occur, all approved lots need to be developed (Community Development Department). To supply lots for future needs, additional land needs to be brought forward through the platting process. 12 55 ureeley urowm ana Development Projections ,...-.~ I i. G~ti ?': Greeley Cre ~t ed: Janua ry 26, 20 15 By: J Barnell Notn: t\U pLonWl,tlrX d~ ... W,U diglnnl {10m ,""....I pholOiraph. d~1ffl 1987. 199! I99S, ::ooJ, ..,.1 200S UpNln ,,,. conanu.a[ .00 d.ol,lrq>lftrf1li1_. .. iIl<h..... owrlnw..llul plOlb::... ...." ,vusr.oa!y ll/;Qlt;JI....g t n rt nnl o • ....-wy..' . tandudob\ll don fTlm Nibooul ~,Maney ~ ·"NNAS llw .,{omlOoon c..........d ..,dun duo ma...ml " 1101 ...1mIkd 10 br m r.... Iht I""'P"- c,( con.wc_ I ii Legend o _ C::] Single Family Building Pennits 2014 Subdivisions with new Single Family Building in 2014 Greeley City Limits Cl Greeley long Range Expected Growth Area Home Building Activityin 2014 N w~t+E .........,. W....-aon 000'IlIInr0d Oft h. doxI.nm. _ ~ p""J'"1J 01 N("'lyofG~LoprwIcM1fpo"-O<I hlmap " '1hout 1Iw • .,tatnpr_ofclw C.MyofG_Irr"-..:1tr S ~ o 56 0.25 O.S 0.75 JanualY 1, 2015 1 Mi~ Table 9 shows that there are a total of 407 multi-family units under construction as of Feb. 15, 2014. In addition, there are permit ready sites for an additional 60 units and 433 are currently under site plann ing or zoning review. The additional multi -family sites, if they are all approved, should be sufficient for approximately one year of new multi -family units (Community Development Department). Table 9: Multi-Family Units in Process I I Project/ Locati on Units Under Construction Creek View 8200 20th Street 348 Homestead Phase III 44 Permit ready units Units being Planned Notes TOTAL 348 30 Pending Re zone 74 82 Site Plan Review 82 North of 29t h Street, Approx. 125' East of 39th Avenue Homestead Phase IV South of 29th Street, Approx. 125' East of 39th Avenue Saint Michael 's Town Center Phase I 57 South of 29th Street 57 Site Plan Review Ap prox. 250' West of 67th Avenue The Reserve 72 Site Plan Review 72 50 Site Pl an Revi ew 50 138 Site Plan Review Pending Rezon e 138 4 Site Plan Review 4 SEC of 29th Street and 58th Avenue M issi on Village 2239 5th Street Alpine Flats 5002 20th Street 431 8th Street 431 8th Street Summer Park 35 35 40 SEC of 71st Avenue and Grizzly Drive Renaissance at Fox Hills 4672 20th Street Road 15 25 TOTAL 407 60 433 900 14 57 ureeley urowm ana Development Projections LM!!) J (~ , !I St O~ti Legend y" e Greeley SUBNAME Crcated: January 26, 2015 By: J Ihrnell NOln : All pLar,..,rlnC d~b was diglbzod from lie nal photol\nph. dakd 1987, 199 2, 1995, 2000, ,111.1 2OJS. Updolrs ll.rt conbnw] ~r\d <4uttpn:io:n\;luon l .. ild!;ulg~ o""rlllTK. l lmpn><Lc' " ool ncccnarily ..crunk 10 mgroccnng or IU' ''"1"g stan dards but <10.:. ",ttl N..oonol M:ow-.g A«:u",Cf Sllfldorod. (N MA5~ nw. ",formabon conlollncd tim docu'"mt \S nOI .mcntkd 10 bt uon! for th r prrpn'oIIJon of ronrtrucbOO doa'mcnl" . ,th", I"fonnabal COIlI Ollntd on tN. documml m,wnl Mu~ifamily Building Permits2014 me of 1ht Gty of Grrdq. LopJ.ng""1 ponoo of the wn tkt'l pomluPOrlof 1htCllyofGrrtky" nncdy • GAT'eNAY LAKES • HOMESTEAD MINOR FG . 1 U PUMPKIN RIDGE • RENAISSANCE AT FOX HILL PHASE 8 • SUMMER PARK • SUMMER PARK 1ST MINOR • SUMMER PARK 2ND MINOR Multi Family Building Activity in 2014 N w~t~E ~~~ S TALON ,_ .... • UNION COlONY I : Greeley City LOnits C Greeley long Rang e Expected Growth Are a ~ 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Miles o 58 January 1, 2015 VII Trends Trends that could impact growth and development in Greeley include those that could affect the regional economy, such as continued growth in the technology sector, trends in agriculture, uncertainty after several years of growth in the oil and gas industry, and factors affecting the mix of single and multi-family housing. Factors affecting the mix of single and multi-family housing include apparent lifestyle preferences of the Millennial Generation, the slow recovery from the Great Recession, the availability of financing, and the high cost of raw water. Regional Economy The economy of Northern Colorado can be divided into two parts, l} science, technology, and information and 2} oil and gas and agriculture. These two sectors are affected by different trends and must be analyzed differently {Shields, 201s} . Growth in the science, technology, and information sectors has been strong since the Great Recession and remains so. This growth is expected to continue for the next several years . Many jobs in th ese sectors pay well and workers in these industries can often afford upscale homes. Many of these workers have a strong preference for significant community amenities such as natural areas, and trails, and walkable communities with bicycle transportation networks and mass transit and they are willing and able to pay premium housing prices to live in these commun ities {Shields, 201s} {Leeds School of Business, 201s} . Agriculture Weld County is the ninth most productive agricultural county in the United States and the most productive outside California in terms of the value of agricultural products produced {Bureau of the Census, 2012} . While crop production is a significant portion of this value and is an important support of food processing plants, it is food processing that generates most of the added value. In 2015, agricultural commodity prices are expected to soften, leading to lower profits for farmers. This can lead to the consolidation of farms into fewer but larger operations eventually relying on less labor but larger, more capital intensive equipment. Consolidation does not reduce total acreage or crop production, but urbanization of land and conversion of water to municipal and industrial use does affect agricultural crop production {Bureau of the Census, 2012} . One of the major trends affecting the future of agriculture is the sale of agricultural water for municipa l and industrial uses wh ich can lead to permanent reduction in irrigated cropland . During the past two years, the price of agricultural water has nearly tripled {Lynn, 201s}. This dramatic increase in price together with the average age of farmers can be an incentive to sell 16 59 these water rights. After the sale of water rights for future municipal and industrial use, a municipality typically pursues a "ch ange in use" and a " change in diversion" through the water court and the water continues to be rented to the farmer for agricultural use. As more water is converted, land is taken out of production and dried up. Uncertainty after several years of growth in oil and gas The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has dropped from $105.79 per barrel on June 24,2014 to $47.60 per barrel on January 28,2015, prices last seen in 2009 (Statista, 2014). Figure 7 shows the oil price per barrel from January, 2014 through January, 2015 . Figure 7: Price of West Texas intermediate crude (per barrel) 120 ~---------------------------------------------------------------- 100 +-----80 60 40 20 o <:t rl <:t <:t rl -...... -...... 1.1") rl -...... 1.1") N N N co -...... rl -...... N -...... ('I") <:t rl <:t rl <:t -...... -...... -...... N N O"l N <:t co -...... 1.1") <:t rl -...... rl -...... <:t O"l N -...... -...... r-- \.D <:t rl -...... r-N -...... co <:t rl -...... 0 ('I") -...... O"l <:t 1.1") -...... <:t -...... -...... -...... -...... N ('I") N rl O"l N 0 rl <:t rl 1.1") -...... rl rl rl 0 -...... N rl co -...... rl rl The price seems to have stabilized between $45.00 and $55.00 per barrel during the last month, but it may be too soon to tell whether this apparent stabilization is long-term or not. To date, drilling activity in Weld County has continued with little apparent effect from the price of oil. While there is a clear downward trend in oil prices in late 2014, there is no clear trend yet in active drilling rigs as shown in Figure 8 (Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, 2015). 17 60 Figure 8: Number of drilling rigs operating in Weld County 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 """ ........ ........ N ........ ........ """ .-t .-t CXl LI) N .-t N """ """ ........ """ ........ """ ........ .-t """ ........ """ ........ """ ........ ........ N ........ N N ........ N """ ........ ........ N ........ N M ........ .-t ........ LI) ........ M .-t .-t CXl 0"1 LI) """ <D .-t .-t ~ 0"1 ~ CXl .-t 0 """ 0"1 """ ........ """ ........ ........ ........ N ........ N M ........ ........ 0 .-t 0"1 LI) .-t .-t .-t .-t 0 LI) .-t .-t CXl N .-t N .-t Interestingly, there is a very limited statistical relationship between the price of oil and the number of active drilling rigs in We ld Cou nty, as shown in Figure 9, at least to date. Figure 9: Relationship bet ween active rigs and oil Pri ce in Weld Cou nty 52 ~ c: :::I o U "tI 50 Qj 49 .: 48 ~ ...... ..... 51 y t--- ...... ..... =-0.0233x + 50.09 R2 =0.0279 .g ... ...... ...... :-------=---... -==-===- CD c: ....... 47 IV Qj Q. o ~ .;: 44 -a 43 ...III E ~ 45 ~ .c ............... 46 ..... ... CD '0 ..... ..... ...... ..... ...... ... 42 0.00 20 .00 40 .00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 :::I Z Price of West Texas intermediate crude (dollars per barrel) While it might be expected t hat the number of drilling rigs would drop with a decline in oil price, for prices per barrel between $47 .60 and $105 .79, the change in oil prices explains less than 3% ofthe variability in the num ber of active drilling rigs. 18 61 Despite the lack of employment decline to date, future curtailment of drilling activity remains a concern since the drilling and fracking of each well employs approximately 100 to 125 people. With the break-even price for fracked oil wells in the Denver-Julesburg basin between $40.00 and $45.00 per barrel, today's low prices raise concerns (Shields, 2015) . Shields believes that the price of oil will stabilize after mid-year at $70.00 to $75.00 per barrel. If this happens, Greeley can expect continued population growth following recent trends. This trend bears watching over the next several months. Factors affecting housing mix Factors affecting the future mix between single and multi -family housing include preferences of the Millennial Generation, the long term decline in real wages, and the cost of providing sufficient raw water. Preferences of the millennials Throughout American history, each generation has been significantly different than their parents in important characteristics, including attitudes, expectations, education, and aptitudes. The latest generation to come of age is the millennial generation . While far from uniform, this generation is the most highly educated and most technologically skilled in history. Many of t hem graduated from college with significant debt. Because a significant portion of commun ication and media access was via smart phones and text messages rather than face -to face, ma ny have not obtained driver's licenses. Because many have had high stimulation early in life, many prefer rich urban environments. long Term U. S. Real Wage Trends Although Greeley and Northern Colorado have been fortunate during the last three years because of oil and gas drilling, U. S. Census data points out that the U. s. real med ian household income adjusted for inflation peaked in 1999 at $56,080 and again in 2007 at $55,627. From 2007 until 2012 (the latest year for which median household income is available), real median ho usehold income declined 8.3% to $51,017 (see figure 10). Figure 10: Annual U. S. Real Median Household Income 1967 to 2012 $60,000.00 -y-------------------------------- $55,000.00 t-------------------]-'tC-~;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;,.,.,..~=_- $50,000.00 +------------~~'---~=~'------------ $45,000.00 +---:;~--=='----=-------=-------------------- $40,000.00 +----,----~---.---__,_--_.,_--__,_--__r--___,---,...__-- 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 19 62 Cost of raw water New housing pays for water service in two ways, 1) plant investment fees that pay for the "buyin" of the new housing unit to existing facilities to store, treat, and transmit water (See Table 11); and, 2) payment for or dedication of the raw water rights to assure that the City has adequate senior, high-quality water rights to serve its water customers. Both the plant investment fees and the cost of providing raw water have lower cost per unit for higher density and multi-family housing. The cost structures of both raw water requirements and tap fees reflect the high proportion of landscape irrigation water applied to lawns in residential areasespecially single family areas . In Greeley, approximately 55% of treated water is used for landscape irrigation . Water plant investment fees vary by density, reflecting the higher per-unit water use in single family houses because of higher water use per household for landscape irrigation. During summers, over 70% of water is used for outdoor irrigation, and a significant portion of the capacity in reservoirs, treatment plants, transmission lines, and water mains is required to provide capacity for this water. The plant investment fees and water dedication requirements are mechanisms that allocate costs toward users likely to use more water. Nonetheless, these costs per unit have the impact of encouraging higher density and multifamily housing. The price of water in Northern Colorado has tripled during the last two years, creating an impact on the affordability of newly built-housing, and potentially changing the average density of housing projects in Greeley for the future . Northern Colorado water providers typically require developers to provide raw water rights for each gross acre of land being developed for residential use to provide the necessary water to be used by the future residents. The approach of requiring raw water for housing on a cost per land area rather than a cost per unit basis reflects the typical residential use of over half the water used being used for landscape irrigation . As that raw water price increases, it can be expected to make single family housing less affordable, while having a less significant impact on higher density multi-family projects. To date, no projects have been developed using water rights purchased since the recent water price escalation . It appears that there is a sufficient supply of lots where water rights have been ded icated in Greeley to meet the need for lots for approximately 3 X years at the 2014 rate of single-family building. 20 63 Figure 11: Effect of the change in the price of raw water on per housing unit cost $25,000 ..... . . III LI'I IV 0 3 N 3 c IV IV The average single family gross density in Greeley lots available in 2014 was $20,000 . . ... -o .. 0 III .... $15,000 .. 1"'1 o 0 N .. .. U III .s::. .-C III QO C IV 6 C IV $10,000 ... 'c:::l ... III $5,000 Q. $0 a 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Gross density (units per acre) The increase in water price appears t o be driven by projecti on s of conti nu ed high growth in Northern Col orado m un icip al and in du st ria l deman d. As m ore conversion of agricultu ral water to m unicipal and in dustria l use takes pl ace, th ere is less ava ilab le wate r suita bl e for t his conversion. Continued raw water price escalation can be expected to affect the market for new housing. Raw water is paid for in the price of new single family homes an d in the rent paid for rental units. Specifically, the price of raw water becomes a $2 .50 per square foot cost ($15, 000 for a single family house on a 6000 square foot lot) added to the lot area for single family housing. This price is sufficient to cha nge the level of affordability of single-family housing. Density (Units per acre)* 3.43 5 Cost per unit at 3 acre feet per gross acre $9500/ Acre $33,000/ Acre Change Foot Foot $28,862.97 $20,554 $8,309 $19,800.00 $14,100 $5,100 10 $2,850 $9,900 .00 $7,050 20 $1,425 $4,950.00 $3,525 40 $713 $2,475 .00 $1,763 * The average gross density for single family lots available in Greeley during 2014 was 3.43 units per acre. 21 64 Given the willingness of the Millennial generation to live in more urban environments and multi-family housing, it appears that as new land is developed where raw water would have to be provided at today's higher price, development may occur at higher densities and a different hou sing mix than in the past as shown in Figure 11. The City of Greeley is currently doing a study to address the dedication requirements for raw water and the amount for cash-in-lieu of ded ications, and whether policy changes should be made. 22 65 VIII Projections Between 1991 and 2014, growth rates ranged from a low of 0.12% to a high of 4.14% as shown in Figure 12. The distribution of these growth rates is highly bimodal with lower growth rates occurring during and immediately following recessions and higher growth rates occurring during recovery periods. Figure 12: Annual Housing Growth Rate /' ) 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% ... a:: ...~ CII n:I ~ ...0 l!' iij / 5 Year period with the / highest average growth / rate (3 .67%) I 3.00% 2.50% / / l/ ..... 2.00% ::J c: c: ct 1.50% 5-¥-ea-r--f>eFie with the lowest a verage-growth rate (0.19)% 1.00% 0.50% y "-- 0.00% m m m ~ ~ m m ~ ~ m m ~ ~ m m ~ ~ m m ~ 00 m m ~ m 0 ~ moo moo ~ N N N m ~ 000 0 0 0 N N N ~ 0 0 N ~ 0 0 N ~ 0 0 N 00 0 0 N m 0 0 N 0 ~ 0 N .. ~ ~ ~ N m ~ ~ 0 N 0 N 0 N 0 N 0 N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Additionally, strong growth has been driven by energy development, especially during the past two years. Although employmen_t has remained steady through January, 2015, the potential for further price drops and volatility raise questions about projecting medium-term growth . Because many ofthe oil field workers employed in Weld County had relocated to this area, there is a potential for negative energy employment effects to create impacts to the real estate and housing markets. 23 66 Average growth rate from 1998 to 2002 46,702 46,000 45,000 44,000 - High 3.67% - Medium 1.90% - Low 0.19% 43,000 11\ ."!:: c: 42,000 ::J Average growth rate from 1991 to 2014 42,118 tID c: 'iii ::J 41,000 0 ~ ... 'iii 40,000 0 .... 39,000 38,000 37,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average growth rate from 2008 to 2012 38,051 If oil prices rebound and stabilize at $70 to $75 per barrel by mid to late 2015 as some economists project (Shields, 2015), and if this stability continues throughout the next five years without a recession, then a continued growth rate averaging around 2% is likely. We anticipate that this growth would accelerate slightly each year from 2% in 2015 to 2.5% in 2017, before dropping to approximately 1% in 2019. Figure 14: Year-end forecast housing units 2015 through 2020 46,000 Growth follows a typical increasing rate during recovery and dips into recession between2019 and 2020. 45,000 44,000 11\ .~ 43 ,000 ::J ~ 42,000 'iii ::J ,g 41,000 o 40,000 .... III 39,000 38,000 37,620 ,,- ~ ~ ~ ~ 42,068 37,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 24 67 This would be consistent with the slow recovery currently underway. Figure 15 shows that this growth rate would result in a slightly higher than average growth rate over the next five years consistent with both the continuing recovery and the broad and robust growth in Northern Colorado . -- - Figur e 15: Year-end forecast housing units 2015 through 2020 compared to potential growth scenarios 46,OO( 45,000 \II 44,000 .§ 43 ,000 ... til) , .5 42,000 \II ::J ~ 41,000 ] 40,000 0 ,, ~ 39,000 38,000 , , , -- 42,068 37, 620 37,000 I 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 37,620 Per this projection, new home construction by year over this period would be as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Projected Split of Multi-Family and Single Family Housing 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total New Housing Perm its Single Family Permits Multi-Family Permits 787 922 983 927 412 417 787 361 423 451 390 90 95 95 426 499 532 537 322 322 692 It is expected that trends in place will continue as they have since 2012 . Unless oil prices decline much more than they already have, Greeley's growth rate is not likely to be affected . Long term divers ificat ion of Northern Colorado's economy is expected to continue, and this has, and will 25 68 continue to have, a positive effect on Greeley. We can expect between 900 and 1,000 permits for new housing units to be issued during each of the next three years with a recession or leveling-off of the growth rate sometime before 2020. It is anticipated that much or the pent up demand for housing should be addressed during this time . As land with water already dedicated is absorbed and single-family housing becomes less affordable, market forces will likely mean that a higher proportion of these housing units will be multi -family because of the lower cost per unit of raw water and tap fees. 26 69 Bibliography Barnett, J. a. (2014) . 2014 Annual growth and development projections reoport. City of Greeley. Bureau of the Census. (2012) . 2012 Census of Agriculture County Profile Weld County Colorado.pdf. Retrieved Dec. 23, 2014, from http://www .agce nsus.usd a.gov/ pub Iica tio ns/20 12/0 n line _ Re so u rces/ Co u nty_p rofi les/ Co lora do .pdf/cp08123 .pdf Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. (2014, December) . Area Profile . Retrieved Feb . 5, 2015, from Colorado LMI Gateway: Colorado LMI Gateway.com/analyzer/session/session .asp?cat=CUR Profiles AREA Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. (2015, Feb 15). COlorado weekly and monthly oil and gas statistics . Retrieved Feb 25, 2015, from www.colorado.gov/cogcc: https://cogcc.state .co .us/Library/Statistics/CoWklyM nthlyOGStats.pdf Community Development Department. (n .d.) . Unpublished data . Community Development Department. (2014) . Unpublished data . Community Development Department. (2014, December) . Monthly Construction Report. City of Greeley. Community Development Department . (2015, Jan . 3D) . Housing Population Estimsate . Retrieved Jan. 3D, 2015, from City of Greeley Long Rang Planning : http://greeleygov.com/docs/defaultsource/community-development/long-range-planning/growth -and -developmentprojections/population-estimate .pdf?sfvrsn =4 Greeley Urban Renewal Authority. (2014) . 2014 Multi-family housing vancancy survey. Greeley: City Mnager's Office . Leeds School of Business. (2015) . Fiftieth annual colorado business economic outlook. Boulder: University of Colorado . Lynn, S. (2015, Feb 5) . Water prices reach historic highs. Retrieved Feb 26, 2015, from BizWest Boulder Valley - Northern Colorado : http://bizwest.com/water-prices-reach -historic-highs/ Pettigrew, D. (2015, Feb 20) . Inventory: The elephant in the homebuying room. Retrieved Feb . 21, 2015, from BisWest: http://bizwest.com/inventory-the-elephant-in-the-home-buyingroom/?refresh =l Shields, M . (2015) . Regional Economic Outlook . 2015 Northern COlorado Economic Forecast. Greeley: Monfort School of Business . 27 70 Statista . (2014, Dec. 14). http://www.statista.com/statistics/2 79941/west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude- oil-price/. Retrieved Feb . 26, 2015, from Statistica : The statistics portal: http://www.statista .com/statistics/279941/west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-price/ Water and Sewer Department . (2014) . Zero water consumption by year. City of Greeley. 28 71 CITY COUNCIL WORKSESSION City of Greeley April 28, 2015 Item Number 3 Scheduling of Meetings, Other Events Contact Roy Otto, City Manager Summary During this portion of the meeting the City Manager or City Council may review the attached Council Calendar or Worksession Schedule regarding any upcoming meetings or events. Attachments Council Meetings/Other Events April/May 2015 Calendar Council Worksession Schedule Status Report of Council Petitions and Related Information Future Council Agenda Items List 72 May 2015 Monday Sunday Apr 26 27 N >, ro 2 , \D N Ci. Tuesday 28 11:30am 12:30pm Greeley Chamber of Commerce (Gates) 7:30am 8:45am Council/Commissione r Breakfast Meeting (T 6:30pm 7:30pm Youth Commission (Sleight) 5:00pm 6:00pm City Council Wo rksess ion (919 7th Street) « 3 4 en , (V) >, ro 2 10 11 29 6:30pm 7:30pm City Council Meet ing (919 7th Street) ...... , ro (V) , ,..... ...... >, ro 2 24 2S Il 0 (V) , "<t N >, ro 2 CounCil Master Calendar Memorial Day 11:30am 12:30pm Greeley Chamber of Commerce (Gates) 6:30pm 7:30pm Youth Commission (Sleight) 6 13 20 27 7 14 21 28 Sa 2 9 16 23 30 Thursday Su 7 14 21 28 Mo 1 8 15 22 29 June 2015 Tu We Th 2 3 4 9 10 11 16 17 18 24 23 25 30 Friday May 1 Fr 5 12 19 26 Sa 6 13 20 27 Satu rday 2 9:00am 10:00am Northern Colorado Cinco de Mayo Fiesta and Parade, We will provide something for Council to ride on (1St 8 9 lS 16 22 23 29 30 7:00am Poudre River Trail (Finn) 8:00am Police Pension Board (Finn) 3:30pm IG Adv. Board (Gates) 4:30pm 6:30pm 2015 Annual Celebration of Philanthropy, Community Foundation of Northern Colorado (Embassy Suites, Lovel >, N 5 12 19 26 11 14 13 2 7:00am 8:00am Council/Manager Breakfast Meeting (Training Room, City Hall) 4 18 25 Fr 1 8 15 22 29 6:00pm MPO (Norton; C 12 ...... 18 3 10 17 24 31 7 11:30am 1:00pm 2015 National Tourism Week Luncheon (The Grill at Westlake, 2118 35th Ave) - CCO Scheduling 0 17 Tu 7:00am 8:00am Upstate Colorado Economic Development (Norton/Finn) 5:00pm 6:00pm City Council Worksession (919 7th Street) \D Mo 30 6 S 5:15pm 7:00pm The Success Foundation Celebrate Education! (State Farm Insurance Companies, 1555 Promontory Circle) CCO Scheduling Wednesday May 2015 We Th Su 19 7:30am 8:30am Visit Greeley (Finn) 6:30pm 7:30pm City Council Meeting (919 7th Street) 26 5:00pm 6:00pm City Council Worksession (919 7th Street) 20 21 2:00pm 5:00pm Water & Sewer Board (Norton) (Nausbaum Training Room) 27 7:30am 8:30am DDA (Sleight) 3:30pm 4:30pm Airport Authority (Arch ibeque/ Elder) 28 7:00am 8:00am Upstate Colorado Economic Development (Norton/Finn) 2:00pm 5:00pm Water Board Meeting (Nusebaum Training R 1 5:00pm 9:00pm W.O.L. F.'s Annual Gala: A Truly WOLF Affair-Mardi Growl Masquerade (Hiilton Fort Collins, 425 W Prospect Road, Fort C 73 4/22/2015 11:20 AM Worksession Schedule - Greeley City Council Council Chambers - 919 7th Street 5:00 p.m. Estimated Time (hours) Sponsor May 28 Capital Maintenance Committee Report and Discussion Comcast Franchise Renewal Community N eeds Assessment Report Monthly Financial Report 1.0 .75 .50 Victoria John & Doug Victoria June 9 W ater & Sewer Board Interviews m ... Betsy June 23 Monthly Financial Report .50 Victoria Monthly Financial Report 2 nd Quarter C IP Report C IP Presentation-Public W orks, Parks, and Recreation Planning Commiss io n Interviews Monthly Financial Report Stormwater Rate Discussion C IP Presentation-Stormwater, Water, and Sewer 201 6 Budget Review .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 Victoria Joel Victoria Betsy Victoria Victoria 2.0 Victoria Monthly Financial Report C IP Presentation .50 2.0 Victoria Victoria Monthly Financial Report 3,,1Quarter C IP Report .50 .50 Victoria Joel Agenda Items W orksession May 12 July 14 July 28 August 11 August 25 September 8 September 22 m ... October 13 October 27 November 10 November 24 December 8 December 22 Future - to be scheduled 74 Greeley City Council Council Request Status Report of Council Petitions May 5, 2015 Council Status or Disposition Meeting, (After completion, item is Worksession, shown one time as completed or Committee and then removed .) Meeting Date Requested Assigned to: None pending 75 Greeley City Council Agenda Items May 5,2015 PROCLAMATIONS AND RECOGNITIONS TOURISM WEEK PROCLAMATION MENTAL HEALTH MONTH PROCLAMATION WHAT'S GREAT ABOUT GREELEY CONSENT AGENDA CONSIDERATRION OF A RESOLUTION BY THE GREELEY CITY COUNCIL ADOPTING THE GREELEY BICYCLE MASTER PLAN AS AN ELEMENT OF THE CITY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN INTRODUCTION AND FIRST READING OF AN ORDINANCE REPEALING AND REENACTING MUNICIPAL CODE CHAPTER 16.32, ELECTRICAL CODE REGULAR AGENDA PUBLIC HEARING AND FINAL READING OF AN ORDINANCE PROVIDING FOR THE ISSUANCE AND SALE BY THE CITY OF GREELEY, COLORADO, ACTING BY AND THROUGH ITS SANITARY WATER ENTERPRISE, OF REVENUE BONDS AND OTHER OBLIGATIONS FOR THE PURPOSE OF FINANCING OR REFINANCING, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, THE COST OF ADDITIONS AND IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SEWER SYSTEM OPERATED BY THE SANITARY WATER ENTERPRISE OF THE CITY PUBLIC HEARING AND FINAL READING OF AN ORDINANCE AUTHORIZING THE ISSUANCE AND SALE BY THE CITY OF GREELEY, COLORADO, ACTING BY AND THROUGH ITS SANITARY WATER ENTERPRISE, OF FIRST-LIEN SEWER IMPROVEMENT REVENUE BONDS, SERIES 2015, IN AN AGGREGATE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT NOT TO EXCEED $10,000,000, FOR THE PURPOSE OF FINANCING, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, THE COST OF ADDITIONS AND IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SEWER SYSTEM OPERATED BY THE SANITARY WATER ENTERPRISE, PLEDGING CERTAIN FUNDS AND REVENUES OF THE ENTERPRISE TO THE PAYMENT OF SUCH BONDS. PRESCRIBING THE FORM OF SUCH BONDS, AND PROVIDING OTHER DETAILS IN CONNECTION THEREWITH PUBLIC HEARING TO CONSIDER A CHANGE OF ZONE FROM GH (COMMERCIAL HIGH INTENSITY) ZONE DISTRICT TO I-M (INDUSTRIAL MEDIUM INTENSITY) ZONE DISTRICT FOR PARCELS 1 & 2 LOCATED AT 2139 E. 8TH STREET, AND A PUBLIC HEARING AND FINAL READING OF AN ORDINANCE CHANGING THE OFFICIAL ZONING MAP TO REFLECT THE SAME 76
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