תמחור דינמי מכרזים ומכירות פומביות Auctions!

‫תמחור דינמי‬
‫מכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
‫!‪Auctions‬‬
‫פרופ' שיזף רפאלי‬
‫ביה"ס לניהול והמרכז לחקר האינטרנט‬
‫אוניברסיטת חיפה‬
‫‪http://bit.ly/SheizafDynamicPricing‬‬
‫‪[email protected]‬‬
‫‪http://rafaeli.net‬‬
‫ראשי פרקים‪ :‬מה נלמד?‬
‫‪ ‬מהם תמחור דינמי‪ ,‬מכרז‪ ,‬ומכירות פומביות?‬
‫‪ ‬למה הם חשובים?‬
‫‪ ‬אסימטריה בכוח‪ :‬קביעת כללים‪ ,‬מחיר ומידע‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬טקסונומיה‪ :‬אנגלי‪ ,‬הולנדי‪ ,‬מכרז‪ ,‬ויקרי‪.‬‬
‫‪Valuation, Reserve price ‬‬
‫‪ ‬קללת הזוכה‪ ,‬יללת המפסיד‬
‫‪ ‬מכרזים כפולים והפוכים ואחרים‬
‫‪ ‬צליפות‪ ,‬קנוניות‪ ,‬הוגנות‪ ,‬אמון הציבור‪.‬‬
‫נפתח בחידה ובבדיחה‬
‫‪ ‬חידה‪ :‬איך מחלקים עוגה בין ילדים כך‬
‫שנשיג צדק מירבי ונמזער את כמות הדמעות?‬
‫‪Riddle: How does one equitably divide a cake‬‬
‫‪among several children‬‬
‫‪ ‬והבדיחה? ?‪And the joke‬‬
‫אתמול הייתי בסופרמרקט השכונתי‬
‫‪Visited the local supermarket‬‬
‫מצאתי קופסה של פסוליה )שעועית(‬
‫והורדתי אותה מהמדף לעגלת הקניות‬
‫‪Found a can of beans‬‬
‫הקופאית העבירה‬
‫במכשיר הקורא‬
‫בברקוד‪...‬‬
‫‪The cashier passed it‬‬
‫‪through the reader‬‬
‫הכל מקיח !?!‬
‫תמחור דינמי‬
‫מכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
‫!‪Auctions‬‬
‫פרופ' שיזף רפאלי‬
‫‪Prof. Sheizaf Rafaeli‬‬
‫)‪“Buy Me, Buy You” (BMBY‬‬
‫חישובי ארנונה יווניים‬
?‫מתי מכרזים הם הכלי המתאים‬
When are Auctions used?

Auctions are useful when
– selling a commodity of undetermined quality;
– the goods do not have a fixed or determined market value,
in other words, when a seller is unsure of the price he can
get.

Choosing to sell an item by auctioning it off is
– more flexible than setting a fixed price;
– less time-consuming and expensive than negotiating a price.

Auctions can be used
– for single items such as a work of art;
– and for multiple units of a homogeneous item
such as gold or Treasury securities.
‫• האיכות לא ידועה‬
‫• המחיר לא ידוע‬
‫• הגמישות רצויה‬
‫• הזמן לוחץ‬
‫)מכרזים מהירים‬
(‫יותר ממו"מ‬
‫• שימושי גם לפריטים בודדים‬
‫• וגם לצברים של פרטים‬
Auctions

Everything is (becoming?)
negotiable.
Auctio = increase, (‫)יוסף‬
(but not all auctions are
about increasing prices!)



Auctions are useful for
price discovery
Auctions are useful to move
merchandise quickly
Is everything auctionable?
‫הכל הופך מקיח‬
‫מכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
‫מכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
‫משמשים לגילוי המחיר‬
‫הנכון‬
‫מכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
‫משמשים להנעה מהירה‬
‫האם אפשר למכור הכל‬
?‫במכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
Projected Growth in Revenues from C2C
Auctions and B2C Dynamic Pricing
SOURCE: Based on data from eMarketer, Inc., 2005; Forrester Research, 2005; authors’ estimates.
‫תמחור דינמי‬
Dynamic Pricing



http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fiamazon2jan02,1,6024678.story?coll=la-headlines-business
Amazon mystery: pricing of books
A Times reporter finds fluctuating costs for his obscure chosen titles at
the Internet retailer.
By David Streitfeld
Times Staff Writer
January 2, 2007
Imagine this: You go to a bookstore, browse, choose a couple of volumes. But
you don't want to carry the books around. So you ask the clerk to hold the
tomes until Saturday, when you'll come back to buy them.
When you return, the bookseller hands you the items but advises you that he's
raised the prices. "I knew you were hot to buy them," the clerk says, "so I
figured I could make a few extra bucks."
That's what it feels like online bookseller Amazon.com Inc. has been doing to
me.



http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-amazon2jan02,1,6024678.story?coll=la-headlines-business
Amazon mystery: pricing of books
A Times reporter finds fluctuating costs for his obscure chosen titles at the Internet retailer.
By David Streitfeld
Times Staff Writer
January 2, 2007
Imagine this: You go to a bookstore, browse, choose a couple of volumes. But you don't want to carry the books
around. So you ask the clerk to hold the tomes until Saturday, when you'll come back to buy them.
When you return, the bookseller hands you the items but advises you that he's raised the prices. "I knew you were hot
to buy them," the clerk says, "so I figured I could make a few extra bucks."
That's what it feels like online bookseller Amazon.com Inc. has been doing to me.
On Nov. 6, seeking to boost my dubious culinary skills, I decided to buy "The Cast Iron Skillet Cookbook." I went to
Amazon and placed the book in my electronic shopping cart but got distracted and never finished the transaction.
The next day, I signed on to Amazon again. A pop-up message informed me that the price had increased from $11.02
to $11.53.
This seemed odd. In physical stores, prices of books are usually fixed, immune to fluctuation by season or whim.
Indeed, they're one of the few consumer items that come with a printed price from the manufacturer.
Although the electronic world provides much greater latitude in pricing, as a longtime Amazon watcher I had never
seen such an abrupt and unexplained price change. The cookbook, published two years ago by a regional press named
Sasquatch Books, is decidedly obscure. Amazon's bestseller list gave it a ranking in the 18,000 neighborhood.
I checked with friends, who accessed their own Amazon accounts. They determined that the price was now $11.53 for
them too. Was it conceivable that Amazon, seeing the only prospective customer in sight reaching for his wallet,
decided to raise the price just a bit — enough to help its bottom line but not enough to scare him off?
I decided on a test. I added a bunch of books, most of them newly published, most of them obscure, to my shopping
baskets with both Amazon and its British affiliate, Amazon.co.uk.

On Dec. 15, I checked my shopping baskets. Nine of the U.S. books had increased in price; three had decreased. At the British branch, nine had increased and none had decreased.
The increases were modest — often about 5%, sometimes less. But, as with "The Cast Iron Skillet Cookbook," they were perplexing. Why would the journals of novelist John
Fowles, published two months ago to widespread apathy, increase by $1.05?
An Amazon spokesman said the company wasn't trying to make a few extra bucks off me during the holidays, but that it otherwise wouldn't talk about its pricing strategies.
"Prices change," spokesman Sean Sundwall said. "Prices go up, prices go down."
Sucharita Mulpuru, an e-commerce analyst at Forrester Research Inc., wondered whether Amazon was going down the path of dynamic pricing.
Dynamic pricing involves selling identical material for different amounts based on the customer's willingness to pay. In the physical world it's a common feature. Want to fly to
Paris tomorrow? It's going to cost lots more than if you can wait a few weeks.
But there's also the risk of alienating customers. In 1999, Coca-Cola Co. was reported to be testing a vending machine that would charge more for its soft drinks in hot weather
than in mild.
"It's fair that it should be more expensive," then-Chairman Douglas Ivester said.
What seemed fair to him seemed like price gouging to others. Coke promptly denied it was considering such a plan.
In 2000, Amazon was found to be charging people different prices for the same DVD. Amazon said it was doing this randomly, but there was another outcry and the company
apologized.
Robert M. Weiss, a Chicago lawyer who has co-written an academic study of dynamic pricing, said that letting prices fluctuate almost as if books were stocks had obvious
advantages for Amazon's inventory control and profit margins. But its customers might feel manipulated.
"It might seem fairer if the consumer also had the ability to negotiate," Weiss said.
A week before Christmas, when I signed on to Amazon again, I was informed of another round of price changes for the books in my basket.
The price of "The Jack Vance Treasury," a book that won't be available until late January, was lowered by 38 cents. But if I was going to stuff a stocking with the "Complete
Poetry of Cesar Vallejo," it was going to cost me $2.50 more.
Amazon spokesman Sundwall noted that the company disclosed the price changes. "We're not trying to hide anything," he said.
But this notice comes via a temporary message at the top of the shopping basket. Click your mouse once, and it disappears for good.
The price change for "Gonzo," a deluxe memorial to iconoclastic rebel Hunter S. Thompson issued by L.A.'s Ammo Books, was too big for anyone to miss. On Dec. 26, Amazon
raised it from $225 to $300.
Steve Crist, the publisher, said he didn't know exactly what the bookseller was doing, but made it clear that none of the $75 increase was due to him.
"As Amazon's stock of 'Gonzo' dwindles, I imagine it sees an opportunity to achieve a higher profit on its remaining copies," Crist said.
*
[email protected]

Copyright 2007 Los Angeles Times |
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887323777204578189391813881534-lMyQjAxMTAyMDIwMzEyNDMyWj.html
‫מכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
Auctions
?‫ הגדרות‬definitions?


A competition-based method of
allocating scarce goods.
An auction offers the advantage of
simplicity in determining marketbased prices.
It is efficient in the sense that it
usually ensures that
– resources accrue to those who value
them most highly;
– sellers receive the collective
assessment of the value.




Often, the auctioneer is not owner but
agent.
Rules set by seller, price set by bidder.
Most efficient, purest of markets .
Are auctions the most fair
mechanism?
‫ שיטה מבוססת תחרות‬
‫להקצאת טובין ושרותים‬
‫הנמצאים במחסור‬
‫ שיטה יעילה במיוחד‬
‫ לא תמיד המוכר הוא הבעלים‬
‫ הכללים נקבעים על ידי‬
,‫המוכר‬
‫המחיר נקבע על ידי הקונה‬
?‫ האם זאת השיטה ההוגנת ביותר‬
‫מכרזים מאד נפוצים במסחר בין עסקים‬
‫‪Auctions very popular in B2B‬‬
‫בואו נשחק "כסף למכירה במכרז"‬
‫‪Let’s play the “auction a dollar” game‬‬
‫• רוצים לקנות ‪ 20‬שקל בשקל?‬
‫?‪Wanna buy a dollar (shekel) for a nickel‬‬
‫• כל אחד יכול להשתתף‪.‬‬
‫• זוכה מי שמציע‬
‫‪Anyone can play. Highest bidder gets it.‬‬
‫את הסכום הגבוה ביותר‬
‫‪Both highest and second highest bidder pay.‬‬
‫• המציע הגבוה וגם השני בגובה‬
‫‪Payment to occur online, in view of class.‬‬
‫משלמים בפועל‪.‬‬
‫‪All bids are public, audible and not sealed, in‬‬
‫• אספקת הסכום הנמכר והתשלום‬
‫‪view of class.‬‬
‫ייעשו בפומבי‪ ,‬לעיני כל הכיתה‬
‫‪No union, monopoly or “rings” allowed.‬‬
‫• כל ההצעות תהיינה ציבוריות‪,‬‬
‫נשמעות בקול רם‪,‬‬
‫!‪TIME IS MONEY‬‬
‫לעיני ואוזני כל הכיתה‪ ,‬ולא חתומות‪.‬‬
‫• לא תתקבלנה הצעות מן הצד‪,‬‬
‫או "מתחת לשולחן"‪.‬‬
‫• נדרשים שקט מוחלט וחל איסור על התאגדות‪ .‬כללי השוק החופשי ייאכפו‪.‬‬
‫• ‪Time is Money‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
Auction Terminology


Anonymity - Open

(Cry) or Sealed Bid


Secrecy - is inventory
amount disclosed

everyone pay the same price,
or what they bid?
Confidentiality - are
participant(s) and
winner(s) identities
revealed
Timing - pre-specified
closing time, interval,
price-determined, etc.
Valuation
Discriminative? - does



Restrictions
Increments
Reserve price
Internet Auctions
Kumar and Feldman
IBM Research :
http://www.ibm.com/iac/papers/auction_fp.pdf
‫מושגים מרכזיים במכרזים‬
‫‪Auction Terminology‬‬
‫‪Valuation‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫הערכת מחיר פרטית או ציבורית?‬
‫?‪Discriminative‬‬
‫מכרז מפלה?‬
‫‪Restrictions‬‬
‫הגבלות‬
‫‪Increments‬‬
‫מדרגות השתתפות מינימום‬
‫‪Reserve price‬‬
‫מחיר מינימאלי‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫– ‪Anonymity‬‬
‫אנונימיות‬
‫– ‪Confidentiality‬‬
‫חשיפת זהויות הזוכים‬
‫ ‪Secrecy‬‬‫חשיפת היקפי המלאי‬
‫– ‪Timing‬‬
‫תזמון הסיום‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
(‫הערכות שווי )פרטיות וציבוריות‬
Valuations

Reasons for bidding in the auction: ‫למה להשתתף‬
– Wish to acquire goods for personal consumption (wine or art);
– Wish to acquire items for resale or commercial use.

Private valuation
‫הערכת שווי פרטית‬
– Goods are acquired goods for personal consumption;
– The bidder makes his own private valuation of the item for sale.
– All bidders have private valuations and tend to keep that
information private.
» There would be little point in an auction if the seller knew already
how much the highest valuation of an object will be.
(‫הערכות שווי )פרטיות וציבוריות‬
Valuations

Common valuation ‫הערכת שווי משותפת‬
– Goods are acquired goods for resale or commercial use;
– An individual bid is predicated not only upon a private valuation
reached independently, but also upon an estimate of future
valuations of later buyers. Each bidder of this type tries (using the
same measurements) to guess the ultimate price of the item.
– The item is really worth the same to all, but the exact amount is
unknown

Example
– Purchasing land for its mineral rights
» Each bidder has different information and a different valuation, but
each must guess what price the land might ultimately bring.
‫טקסונומיה )מיון( של סוגי מכרזים‬
Taxonomy of Auctions

William Vickrey [Vickrey]
established the basic taxonomy of
auctions based upon the order in
which prices are quoted and the
manner in which bids are tendered.
He established four major (one sided)
auction types:
,‫מיון מכרזים לארבעה סוגים עקריים‬
,‫על פי עליה או ירידה במחיר‬
.‫ואופן ההגשה של ההצעות‬
.‫מכרז אנגלי עולה ופומבי‬
– English: Ascending-price, open-cry;
– Dutch: descending-price, open-cry,
– First-price, sealed bid,
– Vickrey or second-price, sealed bid.
.‫מכרז הולנדי יורד ופומבי‬
‫ מכרז‬,‫מכירה לא פומבית‬
.‫ סודי‬,‫מחיר ראשון‬
‫ סודי‬,‫מכרז ויקרי מחיר שני‬
‫טקסונומיה )מיון( של סוגי מכרזים‬
Taxonomy of Auctions
Classification
‫אנגלי‬
English
‫הולנדי‬
Dutch
Seller announces reserve price or some low opening
bid. Bidding increases progressively until demand
falls. Winning bidder pays highest valuation. Bidder
may re-assess evaluation during auction.
Seller announces very high opening bid. Bid is
lowered progressively until demand rises to match
supply.
‫טקסונומיה )מיון( של סוגי מכרזים‬
Taxonomy of Auctions
Classification (cot..)
,‫מכירה לא פומבית‬
‫מכרז‬
Bids submitted in written form with no
knowledge of bids of others. Winner
pays the exact amount he bid.
First-price, sealed bid
or discriminatory
‫מכרז ויקרי‬
Vickrey
Bids submitted in written form with
no knowledge of the bids of others.
Winner pays the second-highest
amount bid.
‫המכרז האנגלי‬
English Auction
Private vs. Common
valuation
 Audible bids, open
outcry, ascending price
 reserve price, “knocked
down”
 Roles of anonymity and
experience

‫המכרז ההולנדי‬
Dutch Auctions


Descending price, Later winners pay less
Flowers,fish, credit, and antiques ‫ עתיקות‬,‫ אשראי‬,‫ פרחים‬,‫דגים‬
‫המכרז ההולנדי והאנגלי ‪ --‬הדמייה‬
‫סימולציה‪ :‬כוחה של פסיכולוגיה‬
‫‪Seller could (?) receive top price.‬‬
‫”‪Think about auction “frenzy‬‬
‫מה עם הפסיכולוגיה?‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
Try the psychology

Take the Dutch descending auction flower
market simulation challenge, at:
http://auctions.rafaeli.net
http://http://research.haifa.ac.il/~avinoy
/auction/
‫ קללת הזוכה‬,‫המכרז האנגלי‬
English Auction, Winner’s Curse

Naming problems
(in financial community:
English is sealed, Dutch is something else)


‫קללת הזוכה‬
Winner’s Curse: The winner actually bids the
furthest from the average bid, which is the best
estimate of the item’s actual worth (reasonable
information).
Do you really want to hire the employee passed
over by all others? John Glenn’s story.
"‫פתרון ל"קללת הזוכה‬
‫מכרזי ויקרי‬

Named for William Vickrey
(called “Dutch Auction” in the financial community)

Highest bidder wins, but pays only the price
offered by second bidder
,‫זוכה המציע הגבוה‬
‫משלם את המחיר השני‬

Sealing is imperative.
! ‫סודיות קריטית‬
‫"רכישות קבוצתיות"‬
Reserve Price





A reserve price is the minimum price that would enable
the sale to occur.
When a reserve price is not met, the item is not sold.
Sometimes the auctioneer will maintain secrecy about the
reserve price, and he must start the bidding without
revealing the lowest acceptable price.
One possible explanation for the secrecy is to thwart rings.
A ring is subsets of bidders who have banded together and
agree not to outbid each other, thus effectively lowering
the winning bid.
‫אסטרטגיות של מכרזים‬
‫‪Auction Strategies‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫תורת המשחקים בשרות החלטות‬
‫במכרזים ומכירות פומביות‬
‫‪‬‬
‫מהי ההחלטה הרציונאלית?‬
‫‪‬‬
‫תגובותיהם של משתתפים‪ ,‬בהתאם‬
‫לחוקי המכרז‬
‫‪‬‬
‫החלטות מנהלי המכרז בבחירת‬
‫הכללים שלו‬
‫‪‬‬
‫צריך לנסות לחזות התנהגות של‬
‫אחרים‪ ,‬ולנסות לברר את כמות‬
‫המידע שברשותם‬
English Strategy



In a private-value English auction, a player's best strategy
is to bid a small amount more than the previous high bid
until he reaches his valuation and then stop.
This is optimal because he always wants to buy an object if
the price is less than its value to him, but he wants to pay
the lowest possible price.
Bidding always ends when the price reaches the valuation
of the player with the second-highest valuation.
English Strategy (cot..)


An advantage to English auctions is that a bidder gains information.
He can observe and see not only that other players drop out, but also
the price at which the competition abandons the bidding. That tells a
bidder a great deal about the valuations of others and allows a bidder to
revise his valuation.
A player's strategy is his series of bids as a function of
– his value;
– his prior estimate of the other players' valuations;
– the past bids of other players.

His bid can be updated as information changes.
Disadvantages of English Auction



The key to any successful auction (from a seller's point of
view) is the effect of competition among the potential
buyers.
In an English auction, the underbidder usually forces the
bid up by one small step at a time. Often a successful
bidder acquires an object for considerably less than his
maximum valuation simply because he need only increase
each bid by a small increment.
– the seller does not necessarily receive maximum value.
Other auction types may be superior to the English auction
for this reason (at least from the seller's perspective).
Auction Strategies
Dutch Strategy


At some point in advance, the bidder must decide the
maximum amount he will bid (the same problem as that
facing a bidder in a sealed-bid auction) .
The decision is based upon
– his own valuation of the object;
– his prior beliefs about the valuations of other bidders.

This auction type is strategically equivalent to first-price
sealed auction because no relevant information is disclosed
in the course of the auction, only at the end when it is too
late.
‫מכירות )לא( פומביות ומכרזים חסומים‬
?‫אפליה‬

A bidding period followed by a resolution
phase

“Discriminatory” when more than one item
sold, at varying prices.
First Price- Sealed Bid




Sealed (not open-outcry like the English or Dutch
varieties) and thus hidden from other bidders.
A winning bidder pays exactly the amount he bid.
Usually, (but not always) each participant is allowed one
bid which means that bid preparation is especially
important.
a sealed-bid format has two distinct periods
– a bidding period in which participants submit their bids;
– a resolution phase in which the bids are opened and the winner is
determined (sometimes the winner is not announced).
Multiple Items in a First-Price, Sealed Bid
Auction





When multiple units are being auctioned, the auction is
called "discriminatory" because not all winning bidders
pay the same amount.
In a first-price auction (one unit up for sale) each bidder
submits one bid in ignorance of all other bids.
The highest bidder wins and pays the amount he bid.
In a "discriminatory” auction, sealed bids are sorted from
high to low, and items are awarded at highest bid price
until the supply is exhausted.
Winning bidders can (and usually do) pay different
prices.
Bidding Strategy


From a bidder's point of view, a high bid raises the
probability of winning but lowers the profit if the bidder
is victorious.
A good strategy is to shade a bid downward closer to
market consensus, a strategy that also helps to avoid
winner's curse.
First Price, Sealed Bid Strategy



It is difficult to specify a single strategy because a profitmaximizing bid depends upon the actions of others.
The tradeoff is between bidding high and winning more
often, and bidding low and benefiting more if the bid wins
(bigger profit margin).
Most bidders attempt to shade their bids to move closer to
market consensus. This also helps to avoid winner's curse.
"‫פתרון ל"קללת הזוכה‬
‫מכרזי ויקרי‬



The uniform second-price auction is commonly called
the Vickrey auction.
The bids are sealed, and each bidder is ignorant of other
bids.
The item is awarded to highest bidder at a price equal to
the second-highest bid (or highest unsuccessful bid).
– winner pays less than the highest bid.

Example
– Suppose bidder A bids $10, bidder B bids $15, and bidder C offers
$20, bidder C would win, however he would only pay the price of
the second-highest bid, namely $15.
‫ביי‬-‫ וגם של אי‬,‫ בתימחור של גוגל‬,‫משמש במכרזים של ממשלות‬
"‫פתרון ל"קללת הזוכה‬
‫מכרזי ויקרי‬



When auctioning multiple units, all winning bidders pay
for the items at the same price
– the highest losing price.
It seems obvious that a seller would make more money by
using a first-price auction, but, in fact, that has been shown
to be untrue.
Bidders fully understand the rules and modify their bids as
circumstances dictate.
Bid adjustment




In the case of a Vickrey auction, bidders adjust upward. No
one is deterred out of fear that he will pay too high a price.
Aggressive bidders receive sure and certain awards but pay
a price closer to market consensus.
The price that winning bidder pays is determined by
competitors' bids alone and does not depend upon any
action the bidder undertakes.
Less bid shading occurs because people don't fear winner's
curse.
Bidders are less inclined to compare notes before an
auction.
Vickery Strategy


The dominant strategy for a bidder in a Vickrey (secondprice) auction is to submit a bid equal to his true
reservation price because he then accepts all offers below
his reservation bid and none that are above. (according to
Paul Milgrom)
A participant who bids less is more likely to lose the
auction and all that strategy accomplishes is to lower the
chance of victory. Bidding high carries the risk of winner's
curse. Neither affects the price paid if he wins.
Vickery Strategy (cont.)




When each bidder adopts a strategy of bidding his true
price, the outcome is that the item is awarded to the bidder
with the highest valuation at a price equal to the second
highest valuation.
The existence of a dominant strategy means that bidder
can determine his own sealed bid without regard for the
actions of others.
So a second-price auction duplicates the principal
characteristics of an English auction.
A potential drawback is that this system requires total
honesty from the auctioneer(s). If the auctioneer is not
trustworthy, he could open the bids, find the winner and
insert a new bid just barely under that to ensure higher
revenues.
Auction types:
Double Auctions
Both bidders and sellers submit “bids”,
“asks”.
 Has roots in haggling
 Offers are ranked.
 Double dutch auction runs two sequential
clocks.
 Probably very attractive when
computerized.

?‫מהו מכרז הפוך‬
What is a Reverse Auction?
‫ בהם הספקים‬,‫מכרזים הפוכים הם מכרזים במחיר יורד‬
‫מורידים מחיר באופן הדרגתי ומתמשך‬
Reverse Auctions are “downward price”
auctions in which suppliers continue to lower
their prices until the auction closes. Buyers
watch as competitors lower price in real
time.
Synopsis
A New Pricing Tool:
Market will likely
drive prices down. Choice
can be on price or
best value.
Request for Proposal
Analyze Proposals
for
Responsibility
Responsiveness
Reverse Auction
Choose winning proposal
Award Contract
Award Contract
‫מכרז טיפוסי‬
‫נמכר למרבה במחיר!‬
‫קונה ‪1‬‬
‫קונה ‪2‬‬
‫מוכר‬
‫קונה ‪3‬‬
‫קונה ‪4‬‬
‫שוק‬
‫תחרותי‬
‫במיוחד‬
‫מכרז הפוך‬
‫מוכר ‪4‬‬
‫מוכר ‪3‬‬
‫מוכר ‪2‬‬
‫מתווך‬
‫קונה‬
‫מוכר ‪1‬‬
Reverse Auctions ‫מכרזים הפוכים‬
…Achieving Savings On-Line
Suppliers
$
GCN Illustration by Michael J. Bechetti
DOD and Other
Federal Agencies
Reverse Auctions

Priceline.com
‫מדוע מכרזים הפוכים?‬
‫מייעל את תהליך הרכש •‬
‫מגדיל את ההשתתפות ומאפשר גישה לספקים •‬
‫ושווקים חדשים‬
‫יעילות תפעולית •‬
‫שקיפות בתהליך הרכש •‬
‫מגדיל את המודיעין העסקי וההבנה לגבי השוק •‬
‫חסכון כספי גדול! •‬
Items Commercial Industry has Auctioned
Surplus Assets
Chemicals
Food Ingredients
Road Salt
Home & Personal Care
Vitamin Premix
Ferroalloy
Molten Sulfur
Chlorine & Caustic Soda
Sulfuric Acid
Packaging
Pallets
Corrugated
Polymer Bags
Labels
Injection Molded Plastics
Folding Cartons
Packaging Adhesive
Plastics
Blow Molded Plastic
Injection Molded Plastics
Die Cut Foam
Conduit
Molded Rubber
Electronics
Computer Monitors
Switches
Resistors
Capacitors
Printed Circuit Boards
Insulators
Control Panel Assemblies
Electro-Mechanical
Transformers
Solenoids
Wire Harnesses
Services
Car Rental
Temporary Services
Telecom Installation
Ground Transportation
Machine Tool Repair
Construction Site Prep
Ocean Freight
US Broker Services
Construction Services
Security Guard Services
Tax Prep Services
Hotel Rooms
Aerospace Parts
Locomotives
Stamping Presses
Construction Equipment
Equipment
Fork Lifts
Broaching Machines
Mobile Equipment
Earth Moving Equipment
Top Plates
Valves
Injection Molding Machines
Bridge Crane
Cutting Tools
Miscellaneous
Lumber
Tempered Safety Glass
Promotional Items
Crankshaft Gages
PC Peripherals
Pipes, Valves & Fittings
Metals
Aluminum
Steel
Titanium
Metal Castings
Commercial Machinings
Aerospace Machinings
Metal Stampings
Springs
Magnesium
Copper
Electrical Steel
Aerospace Metals
Service Center Metals
Cold Headed Components
Specialty Forgings
Fasteners
Stainless Steel
Metal Forging
Wire Mesh
Energy
Coal
Electricity
Diesel Fuel
Other auction types
Simultaneous bidding (Japanese)
 Haphazard (random) order
 Handshake (Chinese) format
 Whisper
 Candle-light (time-interval)
 Silent
 Swiss (with regrets!)

‫תובנות ממחקר התנהגותי על מכרזים‬
Seller and Consumer Behavior at Auctions




Seller profits: function of arrival rate, auction
length, and number of units at auction
Auction prices not necessarily the lowest
 Reasons include herd behavior (tendency to
gravitate toward, and bid for, auction listing
with one or more existing bids)
Unintended results of participating in auctions:
 Winner’s regret
 Seller’s lament
 Loser’s lament
Consumer trust also an important motivating
factor in auctions
When Auction Markets Fail: Fraud and Abuse
in Auctions
 Auction markets are particularly prone to
fraud
 2005 IC3 statistics:
 81% of Internet fraud complaints concerned
online auctions
 Median lost: $200
 Most common fraudulent payment mechanism:
money orders and credit cards
Sniping




http://www.esnipe.com
http://www.BidNip.com
http://www.auctionstealer.com
http://auctionblitz.com
Auctions could be trouble...
‫הונאות וקנוניות‬
Auction Collusion and Tricks

According to Fraud.org, online auctions were the #1
source (68%) of complaints in some years.
‫עוד הונאות וקנוניות‬
‫לאחרונה משתפר מעט‬
‫קנוניות וטריקים‬
Auction Collusion and Tricks




ALL auction types can
‫•כל שיטות המכרזים‬
be manipulated
(‫ניתנות לתפלול )מניפולציה‬
Serious problem with
trust
‫•בעיה אמתית עם אמון‬
Hence need for escrow,
credit, evaluation and
‫•לכן נדרשים כלים שונים של‬
performance data on ‫ ונתונים על המשתתפים‬,‫•נאמנות‬
participants.
‫•תפקידם וסכנתם של‬
Rings, cartels and
'‫ וכו‬,‫ אכיפה‬,‫קרטלים‬
enforcement
‫"צליפה" במכרזים‬
‫‪sniping‬‬
‫הונאה במכרזים‬

‫כללי המכרז‬
Understand how the auction works.


Ask about delivery, returns,
warranties and service.
‫ זהות הקונה‬,‫זהות המוכר‬
Check out the seller. Check out
buyers and shills. Traceroute?

‫זהירות מיוחדת כשמדובר‬
‫באנשים פרטיים‬
Be especially careful if the seller
is a private individual.

‫חשיבותה של כתובת פיזית‬
Get a physical address and other
identifying information.

‫שיטות מתוחכמות‬
‫ שרות‬,‫ אחריות‬,‫ החזרות‬,‫הובלה‬

‫זהירות עם אוספים‬
Be wary of claims about collectibles.

‫שימוש בשכל ישר‬
Use common sense to guide you.

!‫אמצעי תשלום‬
Pay the safest way.

‫לא להתבייש להתלונן‬
Let the auction site know if you have a
problem. It is their business.
Shilling, sniping, rings,
Escrow, Credit. Performance data
Make use of http://www.ftc.gov, http://www.fraud.org
Online Auction trust, ratings and
User Profiles
?‫ומה לא מוכרים במכרזים מקוונים‬
Some other things for auction

Blood, kidneys, wombs, virginity, soul
Auction resources
http://www.internetauctionlist.com/
the internet auction list
 http://www.AuctionAnything.com
 http://www.ebay.com

Auction resources
Frictionless Commerce?
MySimon
BotSpot
DealPilot, Nextag.com Froogle.com
for price comparison and haggling
Israeli auction sites,
agents in auctions

http://www.michraz-Ilmedina.co.il
http://www.2bid.co.il

http://www.netaction.co.il

http://www.4sale.co.il/

http://www.vshop.co.il/

http://www.10bid.com/

http://www.priceit.co.il/

http://www.olsale.co.il/

http://www.rusure.com/

http://www.bigdeal.co.il/

http://www.salestorm.co.il/
Conclusions


Online auctions are becoming extremely popular because
– retailing is moving away from a fixed-price paradigm
to negotiation to be able to follow their customers’
valuations;
– online auctions have wide geographic reach;
– automated negotiations are cheaper and faster.
It is also a vibrant research area since the research on
automated negotiations and their idiosyncrasies has just
started.
Benefits of Auctions
Liquidity
 Price discovery
 Price transparency
 Market efficiency
 Lower transaction costs
 Consumer aggregation
 Network effects

Risks and Costs of Auctions for Consumers and
Businesses





Delayed consumption costs
Monitoring costs
Possible solutions include:
 Fixed pricing
 Watch lists
 Proxy bidding
Equipment costs
Trust risks
Possible solution—rating systems (not always successful)
Fulfillment costs
–

Internet Auction Basics


Internet auctions are different from traditional auctions
 Tend to go on much longer (usually a week)
 Have a variable number of bidders who come and go
from auction arena
Market power and bias in dynamically priced markets
 Where number of buyers and sellers is few or equal:
neutral
 Where one or small number of sellers and many buyers:
seller bias
 Where many sellers and few buyers: buyer bias
Internet Auction Basics (cont’d)

Price Allocation Rules
–
–
Uniform pricing rule: Multiple winners who all
pay the same price
Discriminatory pricing rule: Winners pay
different amount depending on what they bid
Bias in Dynamically Priced Markets
Types of Auctions



English auctions:
 Easiest to understand and most common
 Single item up for sale to single seller
 Highest bidder wins
Traditional Dutch auction
 Uses a clock visible to all that displays starting price,
ticks down until buyer stops it
Dutch Internet auction
 Public ascending price, multiple units
 Final price is lowest successful bid, which sets price for
all higher bidders
Types of Auctions (cont’d)

Name Your Own Price Auctions
 Pioneered by Priceline
 Users specify what they are willing to pay for
goods or services and multiple providers bid for
their business
 Prices do not descend and are fixed
Types of Auctions (cont’d)



Group Buying Auctions (Demand Aggregators)
 Facilitate group buying of products at dynamically
adjusted discount prices based on high volume
purchases
 Based on two principles
• Sellers are more likely to offer discounts to buyers
purchasing in volume
• Buyers increase their purchases as prices fall
Professional Service Auctions—Elance.com
Auction Aggregators—use Web crawlers to search
thousands of Web auction sites and accumulate
information on products, bids, auction duration, etc.
 Unlicensed aggregators opposed by eBay
When to Use Auctions (And For What) In
Business

Factors to consider:
 Type of product
 Product life cycle
 Channel management
 Type of auction
 Initial pricing
 Bid increments
 Auction length
 Number of items
 Price allocation rule
 Closed vs. open bidding
Auction Solution Providers for Business
Some provide software that enable firm to
host auctions on their own Web site
 Some have developed tools that allow a
business to transfer information from its
product database directly to multiple
auction sites automatically

‫תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים‬
60%
Promotional Items
Plastic Shopping Baskets
Photo Film
Plastic Sheet Protectors
Cameras
40%
36%
30%
20%
22%
20%
10%
6%
0%
Day 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
‫תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים‬
Bar Code Supplies
Paint Markers
Safety Supplies
48%
40%
$405,000
Savings
30%
29%
21%
20%
10%
0%
Day 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
‫תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים‬
Pump Repair
Stand-by Generator
40%
Conference Services
AV Equipment
Printing
Signs & Banners
PVC Conduit
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Day 10
11
12
11
12
13
14
15
‫תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים‬
Saved $6 Million Over 3 Events = 42% Average Savings
49%
Business Cards
Stationary Supplies
Promotional Items
40%
44%
30%
26%
20%
10%
0%
Day 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

‫חוק סימון מוצרים‬
:‫מנהל מחקר וכלכלה בתמ"ת‬





http://www.moital.gov.il/NR/exeres/800833FA-109D-4837-8A22-00244D1D6AA0.htm
"‫"בולשיט" לעומת "בול‬
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF3ybaPR1N8
(eBay shows off auction app for the iPhone)
‫ שונאים את‬eBay
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDwQiErBj_M
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/createpdf.cfm?articleid=1245
Knowledge@wharton What Consumers -- and Retailers -- Should Know
about Dynamic Pricing
‫ראשי פרקים‪ :‬מה למדנו?‬
‫‪ ‬מהם תמחור דינמי‪ ,‬מכרז‪ ,‬ומכירות פומביות?‬
‫‪ ‬למה הם חשובים?‬
‫‪ ‬אסימטריה בכוח‪ :‬קביעת כללים‪ ,‬מחיר ומידע‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬טקסונומיה‪ :‬אנגלי‪ ,‬הולנדי‪ ,‬מכרז‪ ,‬ויקרי‪.‬‬
‫‪Valuation, Reserve price ‬‬
‫‪ ‬קללת הזוכה‪ ,‬יללת המפסיד‬
‫‪ ‬מכרזים כפולים והפוכים ואחרים‬
‫‪ ‬צליפות‪ ,‬קנוניות‪ ,‬הוגנות‪ ,‬אמון הציבור‪.‬‬
‫תודה‬
‫שאלות ותגובות‬
‫?‪QUESTIONS‬‬
‫פרופ' שיזף רפאלי‬
‫ביה"ס לניהול והמרכז לחקר חברת המידע‬
‫אוניברסיטת חיפה‬
‫‪http://bit.ly/SheizafDynamicPricing‬‬
‫‪[email protected]‬‬
‫‪http://rafaeli.net‬‬
‫סגור חלון האח המרושע של ‪eBay‬‬
‫אתר ‪Swoopo‬פורץ למוח האנושי ומנצל את מה שכלכלנים מכנים "שקר העלויות המושקעות"‬
‫טים הארפורד‬
‫‪28/3/2010‬‬
‫בעל טור ב"ניו‪-‬יורק טיימס" כינה אותו "שטני"; הבלוגר ג'ף אטווד טוען שמדובר ב"תוכנית העסקית הקרובה ביותר לרשע טהור ומזוקק‬
‫שראיתי בחיי"; בלוגר שלישי הגדיר אותו "פריצה מרושעת למוח האנושי"‪ .‬המושא של כל השנאה הזאת הוא אתר בשם ‪Swoopo,‬או‬
‫"האח התאום והמרושע )עוד יותר( של ‪eBay",‬כפי שכינה אותו עורך מגזין ‪IT‬כלשהו‪.‬‬
‫אתר ‪Swoopo‬מנהל מכירות פומביות בסגנון "שלם‪-‬לפי‪-‬הצעה" ‪ -‬כל הצעת מחיר שמוגשת עולה כסף‪ .‬התוצאה היא שכל מי שמשתתף‬
‫במכרז משלם סכום כלשהו; אמנם הזוכה מקבל עסקה משתלמת‪ ,‬אך מציעי ההצעות האחרות מפסידים‪ .‬חוקי המכרזים משתנים‪ ,‬אך‬
‫לרוב כל הצעה עולה למציע ‪ 60‬סנטים‪ ,‬וכל הצעה שמוגשת מעלה את המחיר הסופי ב‪ 12-‬סנטים בלבד‪.‬‬
‫לדוגמה‪ ,‬קונסולת משחקים בשווי ‪ 500‬דולר נמכרת באתר ב‪ 240-‬דולר‪ .‬ההצעה המנצחת‪ ,‬הצעת ‪ 240‬הדולר‪ ,‬היא ההצעה ה‪2,000-‬‬
‫במספר; ‪Swoopo‬זוכה להכנסה בסך ‪ 240‬דולר מההצעה המנצחת‪ ,‬ועוד ‪ 1,200‬דולר מההצעות האחרות שהוגשו‪ ,‬וכל זאת כאמור עבור‬
‫קונסולה השווה ‪ 500‬דולר‪ .‬במכרזים אחרים באתר כל הצעה שמוגשת מעלה את מחיר הסחורה בסנט אחד בלבד‪ ,‬שיטה שמשמעותה‬
‫הפסדים כבדים למשתתפים האחרים במכרז‪.‬‬
‫ריצ'רד תאלר‪ ,‬כלכלן התנהגותי ובעל טור ב"ניו‪-‬יורק טיימס"‪ ,‬בדק ‪ 26‬מכרזים שבהם הציע אתר ‪Swoopo‬צ'קים של ‪ 1,000‬דולר‪.‬‬
‫ההכנסה הממוצעת מכל צ'ק היתה ‪ 2,452‬דולר‪ ,‬כך שהתגובות שהוזכרו בפתיחה אינן ממש מפתיעות‪.‬‬
‫כאשר שמעתי על ‪Swoopo,‬הדבר הראשון שעלה על דעתי לא היה רשע טהור‪ ,‬אלא כלי ניתוח כלכלי עלום בשם תיאוריית שקילות‬
‫ההכנסה‪ .‬התיאוריה‪ ,‬שאותה פיתח זוכה פרס נובל וויליאם ויקרי‪ ,‬מוכיחה כי כשהנחות מסוימות מתקיימות‪ ,‬אפשר לצפות שכל המכרזים‬
‫יגייסו את אותו הסכום‪ .‬כך אפשר לנהל מכירה פומבית "קלאסית"; מכירה פומבית בסגנון "הצעה יורדת והולכת"; ואף להתעקש שכל‬
‫משתתף במכרז יעביר את מלוא סכום הכסף שהוא מציע כבר בכניסה‪ .‬ועדיין‪ ,‬ויקרי מתעקש שההכנסה הצפויה תהיה תמיד זהה‪.‬‬
‫כדי להבין את העיקרון‪ ,‬דמיינו מכרז שבו החוק ה"מרושע" קובע כי הזוכה חייב לשלם פי שניים מהסכום שהציע‪ .‬מובן שבמצב זה כל‬
‫המשתתפים במכרז פשוט יציעו מחצית הסכום שהתכוונו לשלם‪ .‬ההצעה הזוכה מוכפלת ‪ -‬והתוצאה הסופית אינה משתנה‪ .‬תיאוריית‬
‫שקילות ההכנסה היא הוכחה כללית יותר של רעיון מוכר‪ :‬חוקים "מרושעים" פשוט מעודדים זהירות יתר אך אינם מכניסים יותר כסף‪.‬‬
‫ועדיין‪ .‬התיאוריה של ויקרי מניחה הנחות מסוימות‪ ,‬ואחת מהן היא‪ ,‬למשל‪ ,‬שההצעות רציונליות‪ .‬אתר ‪Swoopo‬עשוי למשוך‪ ,‬במקום‬
‫זאת‪ ,‬הצעות מטופשות‪ .‬תאלר בחן ‪ 26‬מכרזים בלבד‪ ,‬אבל מחקרים אחרים בדקו אלפי מכרזים‪ .‬מחקר נוסף מצא שמשתתפי מכרז בלתי‬
‫רציונליים ‪ -‬ואולי פשוט חובבי סיכונים ‪ -‬נוטים להתרכז בקונסולות משחקים‪ .‬ההצעות במכרזים אחרים נראות רציונליות ‪ -‬ולא מאוד‬
‫רווחיות‪.‬‬
‫נד אוגנבליק‪ ,‬מאוניברסיטת סטנפורד‪ ,‬אסף מידע רב יותר והגיע למסקנה נחרצת‪ :‬לדעתו‪ ,‬הפריט המצוי ב‪Swoopo -‬מגייס הכנסה‬
‫הגבוהה בכ‪ 50%-‬ממחירו באמזון‪ .‬נכון‪ ,‬אין מדובר בשולי רווח עצומים‪ ,‬אך ההפרש בכל זאת מרשים‪.‬‬
‫שני המחקרים מסיקים שמכרזים רבים ב‪Swoopo (-‬ואולי אפילו רובם( אינם רווחיים‪ ,‬אך האתר מקזז את ההפסדים על‪-‬ידי מכרזים‬
‫אחרים‪ ,‬רווחיים יותר‪ .‬ייתכן שהאתר אכן מהווה "פריצה למוח האנושי"‪.‬‬
‫אוגנבליק אפילו זיהה באיזה סוג פריצה מדובר‪ :‬מהלך המנצל את מה שכלכלנים מכנים "שקר העלויות המושקעות"‪ .‬המשתתפים נשאבים‬
‫למכרז‪ ,‬חשים מחוייבים בגלל הצעות שהגישו‪ ,‬ושעלו להם כבר כסף‪ ,‬מסרבים לצאת ממנו‪.‬‬
‫רשע טהור? הייתי מצמיד את התואר הזה דווקא למכונות הימורים‪ .‬אבל אני גם לא מתכוון לשחק באתר ‪Swoopoo‬בקרוב‪.‬‬