Oslo Børs - investeringsmuligheter Kristian Tunaal November 2014 Aksjer som investering [email protected] 2 STRATEGY: VALUATION OSEBX P/B and 12m forward P/E OSEBX: P/B and forward P/E 2.76 20 18 2.26 16 14 1.76 12 10 Historical average 1.26 8 6 0.76 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 P/B P/E 4 STRATEGY: VALUATION S&P 500 P/B and 12m forward P/E S&P 500: P/B and forward P/E 5.74 26 4.74 21 3.74 Historical average 2.74 16 1.74 11 0.74 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 6 P/B P/E Euroland: Prising 5 Praktiske konjunkturindikatorer Konjunkturindikatorer 14000 BDIY Index 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 6 Praktiske konjunkturindikatorer CRY råvareindeks 500 Prisutvikling råvareindeks 450 400 350 300 250 200 CRY Index 7 Oljepris i USD vs. NOK 120 Oljepris - utvikling i år (USD) 110 100 30/05/2014 90 29/08/2014 80 31/10/2014 70 60 CO1 Comdty 700 CO3 Comdty CO12 Comdty CO36 Comdty CO60 Comdty CO80 Comdty Oljepris - utvikling i år (NOK) 650 600 30/05/2014 31/07/2014 550 31/10/2014 500 450 CO1 Comdty CO3 Comdty CO12 Comdty CO36 Comdty CO60 Comdty CO80 Comdty Optimisme i næringslivet Business sentiment ISM 65 60 55 ISM USA HSBC PMI China 50 Markit PMI Euroland 45 40 35 01.10.2011 01.10.2012 01.10.2013 01.10.2014 9 Olje: Tilbud og etterspørsel 10 Long Term Oil Price Forecast – New (The forecast is for the average of the rolling 1st month ICE Brent future contract) Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Historical Real (2013) $/b 32.2 32.4 36.5 47.2 65.0 75.3 81.3 105.2 67.0 84.9 115.2 113.3 108.7 Forecast Real (2014) $/b 108 110 104 85 102 80 84 85 85 86 86 Spot Brent History & FWD looking 160 140 120 100 $/b 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Historical Nominal $/b 24.4 25.0 28.8 38.3 54.5 65.1 72.4 97.3 61.7 79.5 111.3 111.7 108.7 Forecast Nominal $/b 108 110 104 85 102 80 85 88 90 93 95 80 60 40 20 0 1995 Source: Reuters, DNB Markets 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Possible range FWD (nominal) Historical Forecast real (2014 USD) 2016 2019 Forecast nominal 11 E&P vs. oljepris 12 Sjømat: Laksepriser NOK/Kg 13 Relativ prising sjømataksjer Prising sjømataksjer (EV/EBITDA 12 mnths) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 sep 11 des 11 mar 12 jun 12 sep 12 des 12 mar 13 jun 13 sep 13 des 13 mar 14 jun 14 sep 14 des 14 Marine Harvest ASA Austevoll Seafood ASA (Rebased) SalMar ASA (Rebased) 14 Det Norske Oljeselskap (DETNOR) • Oljeselskap med fokus på norsk sokkel • Har eierandel i Johan Sverdrup, Johan Aasen m.fl. • Har fusjonert med Marathon Norge • => gir løpende kontantstrøm til å finansiere videre utbygginger • => største uavhengige oljeselskap i Europa • Vil endre posisjon fra leteselskap til etablert selskap • => lettere å verdsette • => Mindre risiko • Dollarstigning kompenserer for oljeprisfallet • Våre base case estimater er basert på USD 100 bbl/d og USDNOK 6.0. Dette gir P/E 2015 est. på EPS 9.6 og NAV på 84 NOK/aksje • Mark to market oljepris USD 84 bbl/d og USD/NOK 6.57 gir NAV på 77/aksje og EPS 2015 est. på 8.2 EPS • Fremdeles P/NAV 0.55 og P/E 2015 est. på 5.2 15 Marine Harvest Verdens største oppdrettselskap Størrelse gir markedspremie Geografisk diversifikasjon Oppdrettslaks er ikke dyrt! Andre matvarer har over tid steget like mye i pris Key figures VALUAT ION EPS EPS adj Dividend ps 2012 2013 2014e NOK NOK NOK 1.09 1.25 0.1 6.39 4.66 2.61 4.23 7.36 8.1 11.03 11.03 8.5 Book per share Price Price P/ E P/ E adj Dividend yield NOK NOK NOK X X % 31.2 51.2 39.9 73.85 35.7 91.35 39.2 91.35 47 41 0.2 11.6 15.8 3.5 21.6 12.4 8.9 8.3 8.3 9.3 P/ Book X 1.6 1.9 2.6 2.3 Og oppdrettsaksjer er ikke dyre P/E 2015. est. på 8.3 Og premien til industrien ikke større enn den pleier å være Gode utbytter Begrenset tilbudsvekst i 2015/2015. Historisk har dette alltid gitt økte priser 16 2015e Opera Software Teknologi-selskap som leverer programvare som gir kobler internett med mobil/laptop/desktop Over 350 mn brukere og 130 mobiloperatører benytter Opera programvare for internettilgang Viktigste inntektskilde er annonsører til mobiler H1 2014 vs. H1 2013; 39% vekst i omsetning 39% vekst i operativ kontantstrøm Key figures VALUAT ION EPS EPS adj Dividend ps 2014e 2015e USD USD USD 0.24 0.57 0.05 0.53 0.89 0.05 Price Price P/ E P/ E adj Dividend yield NOK USD X X % 90 13.66 56.3 23.8 0.3 90 13.66 26 15.3 0.4 Nyheter; Oppkjøp av AdColony juni 2014 Styrker posisjonen på videoannonser Vekst; Mobil allerede større enn desktop og vokser raskest Video vokser raskest på mobil Tar markedsandeler 17 Morning Presentation Contact us DNB Markets Institutional sales Oslo Equity Sales New York +1 (212) 681 3800 Opstad, Alexander Global Head of Equities +47 24 16 92 79 Breivik, Thomas Head of Sales & Trading, Nordic +47 24 16 92 26 Cirenza, Jim Head of Securities Sales and trading +1 (212) 681 3914 Hanøy, Berit Ryan, Anveig Office / floor Manager +47 24 16 92 99 +47 24 16 92 37 Amundsen, Trond N. Andreassen, Frederik Nicolai Sales Execution trader +47 24 16 92 27 +47 24 16 92 38 Eriksson, Hans Formichella, Gianmarco Sales Trading Sales Trading +1 212 551 9853 +1 (212) 551 9851 Brekmo, Mona-Cathrin Larsen, Silje Marie B. Corp. Access, NO Corp. Access, NO Ask, Lars Berg, Marius Execution trader Sales +47 24 16 92 39 +47 24 16 92 49 Jensen, Audun Kettle, Ellen Sales Sales +1 (212) 681 3913 +1 (212) 681 3917 Wendy Busuttil Corp. Access, London +44 207 621 6147 Bogen, Thor Olav Sales +47 24 16 92 32 McEvilly, Brain Sales +1(212)-551-9897 Leanne LaRiviere Linnea S Munthe Corp. Access, London Corp. Access, New York +44 207 621 6146 +1 212 551 9857 Breituft, Stian Skauge Engaas, Geir Sales Sales +47 24 16 92 48 +47 24 16 92 18 Paterson, Jonathan Sakis, George Sales Sales Trading +1 (212) 551 9854 +1 (212) 681 3920 Equity Research Oslo Head of Corp. 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Oil & Gas, Mining Offshore: Subsea, FPSO +47 24 16 92 02 +47 24 16 91 91 Aaser-Stene, Christoffer Equtiy Sales/ Research Sales Stockholm +47 24 16 92 12 Dahl, Rune Majlund Karhunen, Sampsa Equity Research Equity Research +44 20 7621 6148 +44 20 7621 6105 Masdal, Jon Seismic and Offshore drilling +47 24 16 92 97 Christer Magnergård Head of Equity Sales/Research Equity Research +44 20 7621 6032 Real Estate, Construction IT & Telecom Equipment +47 24 16 92 09 +47 24 16 91 81 Frosslund, Johan Lowndes, Philip Sales Trading Sales +46 84 73 48 44 +46 84 73 48 47 +46 84 73 48 46 Kruber, Magnus Mortensen, Simen Roth, Christer Tallberg, Alexander Lakin, Jenny Equity Research Editor +44 20 7621 6095 +44 20 7621 6094 Thoresen, Fredrik Tunaal, Kristian IT & Telecom Equipment Equity Strategy/Supervisor private clients Norway +47 24 16 91 79 +47 24 16 91 85 Gustafsson, Johan Sundberg, Fredrik Sales Sales Trading +46 8 473 48 42 +46 84 73 48 41 Peto, Hugh Russell, Curtis Editor Editor (Singapore) Veddeng, Eivind Sars Consumer Goods +47 24 16 92 03 Ling, Patrik Research - Healthcare Von Ottenbreit, Mathias Quantitative analyst +47 24 16 91 83 Sigvardsson, Simon Sjøberg, Johan Research - Capital Goods Research - Capital Goods +46 84 73 48 31 Electronic Execution Services Andersen, Espen Head of EES +47 815 08940 +47 24 16 92 56 Trading, MM & Derivatives Olsen, Thor Gunnar Head of Trading, MM & Derivatives +47 24 16 92 45 Kittelsrud, Bård Lind, Inge Håvard Product Development Product Development +47 24 16 92 67 +47 24 16 92 66 Jensen Morten Alvestad, Sveinung Aschehoug, Haakon +46 84 73 48 43 +46 84 73 48 45 +44 20 7621 6118 +44 20 7621 6012 +65 62 28 26 13 Brandsæter, Sindre B. 47 24 16 92 46 Torrissen, Roar Electronic Trading +47 24 16 92 65 Brown, Jeremy Robert Kleiven, Alexander +47 24 16 91 16 47 24 16 92 44 Jan Skovli Service Desk DMA/Algo Execution Sales +47 24 16 92 57 +47 23 26 80 80 Sæle, Arne Joel Ikdal 47 24 16 92 47 +47 24 16 92 43 Online trading dnb.no/aksjer +47 815 08940 + 47 08940 +47 24 16 91 85 Strandvik, Siw Brataas, Tom Head of Marketing Product- and Sales Manager Macro research Dørum, Øystein +47 24 16 90 08 Retail ordre / online support Tunaal, Kristian Head of Sales Private Clients Kjersti Haugland +47 24 16 90 03 Regional Desk Farago, Kim-André Sales- and Info Manager Ole André Kjennerud Knut A. Magnussen +47 24 16 90 07 +47 24 16 90 04 Regional Desk Bergen Regional Desk Hamar +47 56 13 27 10 +47 62 54 14 82 Haugen, Marius Brun Adress Postal Communications Manager Camilla Viland Magne Østnor +47 24 16 90 01 +47 24 16 90 06 Regional Desk Kristiansand Regional Desk Trondheim +47 38 07 29 19 +47 73 99 33 30 DNB Markets Dronning Eufemias gate 30, Bygg M-08-S DNB Markets Dronning Eufemias gate 30 Kyrre Aamdal +47 24 16 90 02 Regional Desk Tønsberg +47 33 01 73 80 0191 OSLO - Norway Oslo - Bjorvika - Norway + 47 08940 +47 24 16 92 78 +47 24 16 91 31 +47 24 16 92 54 [email protected] 18 +47 24 16 92 55 Adress Visiting Morning Presentation IMPORTANT/DISCLAIMER This note must be read in conjunction with published research notes of DNB Markets. 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