Makrotrekk: Her skilles våre veier Økonomiske utsikter, Eiendomsdagen, 9.10.14 Sjeføkonom Øystein Dørum, DNB Markets Overblikk 1. Globalt: Flerhastighetsoppsving, og veldig langt frem 2. Norsk økonomi bremser, men kollapser neppe 3. Oljepengebruk og privat forbruk demper nedturen 4. Lunkent eiendomsmarked 5. Oppsummering og risiki Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 2 Overblikk: Flerhastighetsoppsving. Langt frem 2% i i-land (skille i den engelske kanal), 5-5¼% i EMDEs, og 3½% globalt Arbeidsledighet BNP 10 Prosenvis volumendring fra året før 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 Verden Industriland Fremvoksende Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets, august 2014 Prosent av arbeidsstyrken 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Aug-04 Aug-09 ØMU Japan USA UK Aug-14 OECD Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 3 Lave renter rundt oss, lavere oljepris Styringsrenter Kinas oljeimport og oljepris Faktisk/prognose 23-Sep-2014 400 6 150 350 5 120 300 4 250 3 90 200 2 150 1 100 0 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 USA UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Japan Sverige ØMU Norge 60 30 50 0 0 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 Import, 12mcs, mill t (va) Brent Prognose Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 4 Norge: Fortsatt stø kurs? Overblikk Vekstpause i 2015, tiltakende 2016-17. Forbruk & eksport driver oppsvinget Norge: Etterspørselskomponenter Norge: Hovedtall, % 2008Q1=100. Tre kvartalers glidende gj.snitt 6 150 5 140 4 130 3 120 2 110 1 100 0 90 80 -1 -2 1990 1995 2000 Fastlands-BNP Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets 2005 KPI 2010 2015 Ledighet 70 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Privat forbruk Bedriftsinv. Off. forbruk Boliginv. Oljeinv. Trad. eksport Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 6 DNB: På den forsiktige siden i år og neste år Norge: Fastlands-BNP, å/å 2014 Norge: Fastlands-BNP, å/å 2015 Consensus: Standardavvik og høy/lav Consensus: Standardavvik og høy/lav 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 CF 0.0 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-14 DNB Markets Kilde: Consensus Economics/Norges Bank/DNB Markets Norges Bank Mar-14 CF May-14 Jul-14 DNB Markets Sep-14 Norges Bank Kilde: Consensus Economics/Norges Bank/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 7 Oljepengebruken øker ufortrødent 141’’’(+0,7%) i RB. Vris mot skattelette & investeringer. 161’’’(+0.8%) i 2015? Offentlige nettofordringer Oljefond og oljepengebruk Prosent av BNP Mrd 2014-kroner. SPU i mrd. kroner 200 150 100 250 7500 200 6000 150 4500 100 3000 50 1500 50 0 -50 0 -100 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Norge SPU Eurosonen Kilde: Finansdepartementet, NB2014/DNB Markets 0 OECD Faktisk NB15? 4% SPU (ha) Kilde: Finansdepartementet, RNB2014/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 8 «Sjokket»: Oljeinvesteringene faller neste år Augusttelling: 232’’’ i år, 182’’’ i 2015 => 20% volumfall • Ingen bombe: Oljeprisen er på vei ned (tror vi), oljeselskapene er mer usikre og kostnadsfokuserte. Norsk Olje og gass varslet -10% i mars. • I 2017 kommer Johan Sverdrup og Johan Castberg og løfter nivået igjen Oljeinvesteringer Oljeinvesteringer, % Mrd kroner. Antatte og utførte 40 10 30 9 20 8 10 7 0 6 80 -10 5 40 -20 4 0 -30 3 240 200 160 120 1985 1990 1995 2000 Faktisk Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets 2005 aug t-1 2010 aug t 2015 1990 1995 År/år 2000 2005 2010 2015 Andel av Fastlands-BNP (ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 9 «Gullalder» over, industrien treffes Verfts- og maskinindustrien vil (naturlig nok) rammes mest av nedturen Norge: Industriproduksjon Oljesektorens ressursbruk Etter næring. 2005=100. Sesongjustert Prosent av Fastlands-BNP 220 16 14 180 12 10 140 8 6 100 4 2 0 1970 1980 Produktinnsats 1990 2000 Lønnskostnader Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets 2010 Investeringer 60 Jan-05 Jan-07 Treforedling Maskin Jan-09 Jan-11 Kjemisk Verft Jan-13 Metall Møbel Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 10 Bremsen er her allerede… Regionalt nettverk: Fra stillstand i B/A til 2% vekst i B2B. Men generelt svakt Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha 5 10 5 10 4 8 4 8 3 6 3 6 2 4 2 4 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 -3 -6 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Oljelev. B/A Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Hjemmeind. Eksportind. -3 -6 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Varehandel Tj.yting bedrifter Pers. tj.yting Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 11 …og særlig på Vestlandet Oppbremsingen er primært et kystfenomen. Innlandet er på det jevne Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 12 Arbeidsmarkedet er forbausende godt 32’/1,2% flere jobber siste år. Ledigheten avtar, dvs. vekst over trend? Sysselsetting og arbeidsstyrke Arbeidsledige 1000 personer. Sesongjustert 1000. Sesongjustert 2700 2775 2650 2725 2600 2675 2550 2625 2500 2575 2450 Aug-08 Aug-10 Sysselsatte Kilde: Thomsen Datastream/DNB Markets Aug-12 2525 Aug-14 Arbeidsstyrke (ha) 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12 Oct-14 Reg.+tiltak Reg. AKU Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 13 Ikke sterk økning i industriledigheten, ennå Mest: Nord-Trøndelag 20% å/å, Rogaland 17%, ingeniører 29%, ledere 27% Registrert ledighet Reg. ledighet. Utvalgte næringer 12m snitt. t-5 = 100 Ujustert. Prosentvis endring år/år, gl. 3m 180 40 160 30 20 140 10 120 0 100 -10 80 -20 60 Sep-99 -30 Aug-10 Sep-04 Riket Østlandet (7) Kilde: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Sep-09 Sep-14 Buskerud Vestland (5) Riket Industri Aug-11 Aug-12 Varehandel Ingeniører Aug-13 Aug-14 Bygg/anlegg Tj.yting Kilde: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 14 Reuters varsler knappe 5000 færre jobber Men verken NHOs Økonomibarometer eller NAV-tallene tyder på noe skifte Permitterte Ujustert. 12m gjennomsnitt 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Aug-04 Aug-09 Helt Aug-14 Delvis Kilde: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Reuters: Aker Solutions 250-275, Apply Sørco 50-75, Beerenberg 150, Halliburton 46, Rolls-Royce 14, Aibel ~500, Baker Hughes 140, Bilfinger 600, Chevron 225 (inkl. UK), ESS 100, FMC Kongsberg 130, GE Oil & Gas vurderer kutt, Helgelandsbase 21, IKM 80, Kaefer vil trolig kutte, North Atlantic Drilling 250 “at risk”, Oceaneering 20-30, Odfjell Drilling 40, RD Shell 250 (inkl. UK), Reslink 8, Siemens Subsea 60, Statoil 1200 (pr. Juli), Subsea 7 100-150, Transocean 85, Weatherford 100, Westcon 20, WesternGeco 190. Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 15 Gullalderen er uansett over også her Fra 2,6% årlig reallønnsvekst til det halve Bytteforhold og konkurranseevne Norge: Årslønn og ledighet 1995=100 Prosentvis endring og nivå i prosent 7 225 6 200 5 175 4 150 3 125 2 100 1 75 1995 0 2000 2005 Eksport-/importpriser 2010 2015 RLPE-deflatert KKI Kilde: OECD EC. Outlook/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 2000 2004 Reallønn 2008 Konsumpriser 2012 2016 Ledighetsrate Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 16 Høy sparing demper forbruket. Oppsiderisiko? Rekordhøy (ujustert) sparing. Færre rammelån, mindre avdragsfrihet Husholdninger Norge: Sparerate, husholdninger Prosentvis endring fra året før 12 10 2.8 8 6 2.6 4 2 2.4 0 -2 2.2 -4 -6 2.0 1990 1995 Forbruk 2000 2005 Disp.inntekt Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets 2010 Prosent av disponibel inntekt 3.0 2015 Sparerate (nivå) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 1990 1995 I alt 2000 x utbytte 2005 2010 2015 x utbytte og pensjonspremie Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 17 Optimistiske, men lite sugne på å bruke penger Norsk Gallups forv.indiktator Lyst til å kjøpe... (4 kvartalers snitt) Privat forbruk og forv.indikator 8 8 40 7 6 30 6 5 4 3 20 4 2 1 10 2 0 Q3 1994 Hus 0 Q3 1999 Q3 2004 Hytte/båt Q3 2009 Brunevarer Q3 2014 Hvitevarer Kilde: TNS Gallup/DNB Markets Norsk Gallups forv.indiktator Lyst til å... (4 kvartalers snitt) 0 -2 -4 Q3 1994 Q3 1999 Forbruk å/å Q3 2004 Q3 2009 -10 35 -20 25 -30 Q3 2014 15 Forventningsindikator (sj,ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 30 20 10 5 0 Q3 1994 Q3 1999 Q3 2004 Nedbetale lån Q3 2009 Q3 2014 Spare Kilde: TNS Gallup/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 18 Bankene har løsnet litt på snippen I andre kvartal gikk marginene ned. Videre nedgang er ventet i tredje Kreditt etter sektor (K2) Prosentvis endring år/år 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Jul-04 Jul-06 Jul-08 Jul-10 Husholdninger Jul-12 Jul-14 Bedrifter Kilde: Thomson Datastream/SSB/DNB Markets Rentemargin Faktisk utvikling og anslag neste kvartal 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Bedrifter Hushol dni nger Kilde: Norges Banks utlånsundersøkelse/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 19 Boligmarkedet tok oss på sengen. To ganger! -1,4% aug-des 2013, +3,5% des-sep. Forventninger, men også bankadferd Bruktboligpriser, ses.justert Bruktboligpriser 25 34 20 32 15 30 10 28 5 26 0 24 -5 22 -10 20 -15 18 -20 Jan-05 16 Jan-08 Jan-11 3m/3m, årlig rate, % Jan-14 Jan-17 1000 kroner/kvm (ha) Kilde: EiendomNorge/Finn.no/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Prosentvis endring år/år 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Faktisk/anslag Modell Kilde: EFF/NEF/Econ Pöyry/Finn.no/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 20 Lav prisvekst tilsier dempet boligbygging Økt ledighet og rente (på sikt), dempet inntektsvekst Boligbygging. 1000, annualisert Boliginvesteringer, % 40 25 7.0 35 20 6.5 30 15 25 10 20 15 6.0 5 5.5 0 5.0 -5 4.5 10 -10 5 -15 4.0 0 Sep-84 -20 3.5 Sep-94 Igangsatt, 3m snitt Sep-04 Sep-14 Fullført, lagget ett år Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/Thomson Datastream /DNB Markets 1990 1995 År/år 2000 2005 2010 2015 Andel av Fastlands-BNP (ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 21 Oppsummert 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Noe drahjelp utenfra, men blodfattig i Europa Lav vekst, kapasitetsutnytting, inflasjon og renter Oljebrems gir lavere norsk vekst neste år Men oljepengebruk, privat forbruk og eksport buffrer Sideveis boligpriser, lavere boligbygging Jokere - Geopolitisk usikkerhet. Nye kriser i eurosonen. Har Kina-landing - Større fall i oljeinvesteringene, større ringvirkninger - Spare- og forbrukslysten i husholdningene - (Men 55-60 mrd. kroner igjen til 4%-krittstreken) Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 22 Svakere krone har løftet prisveksten Svak krone og prisvekst nær målet er argumenter mot rentekutt KPI-JAE EURNOK 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.4 27-Sep-13 Fwd 7.4 27-Sep-15 27-Sep-14 CF Sep 14 PPP Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets DNB Endring år/år i prosent 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 I alt Kjerneimport Øvrig Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 23 Important/Disclaimer • • • • • • • • • • • This note (the “Note”) must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no. 876. The Note has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA, a Norwegian bank organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Norway (the “Bank”), for information purposes only. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. The Bank, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (individually, each a “DNB Party”; collectively, “DNB Parties”) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Note. DNB Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, nor for the results obtained from the use of the Note, nor for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Note is provided on an “as is” basis. 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We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may have interests in any products referred to in the Note by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, we, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in the Note. Additional Information, including for Recipients in the In the United States: The Note does not constitute an offer to sell or buy a security and does not include information, opinions, or recommendations with respect to securities of an issuer or an analysis of a security or an issuer; rather, it is a “market letter,” as the term is defined in NASD Rule 2211. Eiendomsdagen, Drammen, 9.10.2014, side 24