PKSMAKROEKONOMSKEinfo
Oktobar 2014.
Priprema Centar za ekonomske analize – redakcija časopisa Konjunkturni trendovi Srbije | Tel: 011 33 00 970 | E-mail: [email protected]
MESEČNI MAKROEKONOMSKI PREGLED br. 10*
MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC SURVEY No 10*
Oktobar 2014.
(October 2014)
Potrošačke cene
Prices
Cene potrošnih proizvoda i usluga su, nakon julskog pada
od 0,1%, i u avgustu dodatno snižene u proseku za 0,2%.
Robne cene su u avgustu u proseku opale za 0,2%, a cene
usluga za 0,1%. Avgustovski pad cena je najvećim delom
rezultanta sezonskog pada cena svežeg povrća, kao i pojeftinjenja usluga u fiksnoj telefoniji. Posmatrano po glavnim
grupama proizvoda i usluga klasifikovanih prema nameni
potrošnje, u avgustu 2014. godine, u odnosu na prethodni mesec, najveći pad cena zabeležen je u grupama: odeća i obuća i komunikacije (za po -1,5%), nameštaj, pokućstvo i tekuće održavanje stana (-0,7%), zdravstvo i hrana i
bezalkoholna pića (za po -0,3%) i alkoholna pića i duvan
(-0,2%). Rast cena zabeležen je u grupama: rekreacija i kultura (1,1%), restorani i hoteli (0,4%), transport (0,3%), stan,
voda, električna energija, gas i druga goriva (0,2%) i obrazovanje (0,1%), dok se cene ostalih proizvoda i usluga nisu
bitnije menjale.
Prices of consumer goods and services in August additionally
decreased by 0.2% on average, following its drop of 0.1% in July.
The prices of goods in August decreased by 0.2% on average,
whereas the prices of services decreased by 0.1%. The decrease
of prices in August is a result of seasonally decrease of prices of
fresh vegetable as well as of services in fixed telephone network.
Observed by main groups of products and services classified by
the consumption purpose, in August 2014, as compared to the
previous month, the largest drop in prices was recorded in the
following groups: clothing and footwear and communications
(-1.5% each), furniture, household devices and regular maintenance of house (-0.7%), health care, food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.3% each) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-0.2%).
A growth in prices was recorded with the following groups: recreation and culture (1.1%), restaurants and hotels (0.4%), transport (0.3%), flat, water, electricity, gas and steam and other fuels
(0.2%) and education (0.1%), whereas the prices of other goods
and services did not change substantially.
1
Godišnja stopa
1
Mesečna stopa
The average level of consumer prices in August this year was
higher by 1.7% as compared to December 2013 and by 1.5%
in relation to August of the previous year. According to the estimates of the monetary authorities, the inter-annual inflation
will return back within the limits of the allowed deviation from
the target rate (4±1.5%) by the end of the year, while this estimate involves the increase of price of electricity as well as of
other energy substances planned for the last quarter of 2014.
%
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Yearly rate
Mesečne i međugodišnje stope promena
potrošačkih cena u periodu 2011-2014. godine (%)
Izvor: RZS, odgovarajuća Saopštenja
Monthly rate
%
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Prosečan nivo potrošačkih cena u avgustu ove godine bio
je za 1,7% viši u poređenju sa decembrom 2013. godine i
za 1,5% viši u odnosu na avgust prethodne godine. Prema
proceni monetarnih vlasti, međugodišnja inflacija će se do
kraja godine vratiti u granice dozvoljenog odstupanja od
cilja (4±1,5%), a u ovu procenu uključeno je poskupljenje
električne energije, kao i ostalih energenata planirano za poslednji kvartal 2014.
Monthly and annual inflation rate, 2011-2014
Source: National Statistic Agency
Industrijska proizvodnja
Industrial production
Industrijska proizvodnja u Republici Srbiji u avgustu 2014.
godine manja je za 13,1% u odnosu na isti mesec prethodne godine, dok je kumulativna industrijska proizvodnja za
Industrial production, in the Republic of Serbia in August
2014, decreased by 13.1% in comparison with the same
month of the previous year, whereas the cumulative indus-
Izvori podataka: Republički zavod za statistiku RS, Narodna banka Srbije, Ministarstvo finansija RS,
Nacionalna služba za zapošljavanje, Beogradska berza i Agencija za privatizaciju.
*
Data soruces: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, National Bank of Serbia, Ministry of Finance, National Employment Service, Belgrade Stock Exchange and Privatization Agency.
*
1
osam meseci 2014. godine, u poređenju sa istim periodom
2013. godine, opala za 4,3%.
trial production for the eight months of 2014, as compared
to the same interval of 2013, decreased by 4.3%.
Pad proizvodnje u avgustu ove godine, u poređenju sa istim
mesecom 2013. godine, evidentiran je kod svih industrijskih
sektora i svih namenskih grupa proizvoda, bez izuzetka. Najveći pad je zabeležen u sektorima snabdevanja električnom
energijom, gasom, parom i klimatizacija (-39,8%) i ekstraktivne industrije (-23,8%), dok je pad produkcije u sektoru
prerađivačke industrije bio nešto umereniji (-3,8%). Pad
industrijske proizvodnje je najvećim delom posledica poplavama uzrokovanog zastoja u proizvodnji ruda i energije
i otežanog snabdevanja prerađivačke industrije repromaterijalima i energentima.
A drop in the production in August this year, as compared
with the same month of 2013, was recorded with all industrial sectors and all special purpose groups of products,
without exception. The largest decrease was recorded with
the sector of supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (-39.8%) and extractive industry (-23.8%), whereas a
drop in production in the sector of manufacturing industry
was more slightly (-3,8%). The decrease in industrial production is mainly a result of flood caused standstill in production of ores and energy and difficult supply of manufacturing industry with reproduction material and energy sources.
Podaci o industrijskoj proizvodnji po namenskim grupama u
avgustu 2014. godine, u odnosu na isti mesec prethodne godine, pokazuju da je došlo do pada u proizvodnji: energije za
28,0%, netrajnih proizvoda za široku potrošnju za 6,4%, intermedijarnih proizvoda, osim energije za 6,2%, kapitalnih proizvoda za 4,8% i trajnih proizvoda za široku potrošnju za 0,2%.
Observed by purpose groups, in August 2014, as compared to the same month of the previous year, a decrease
in production was noted in production of: energy by 28.0%,
non-durable consumer goods by 6.4%, intermediate products, other than energy by 6.2%, capital products by 4.8%
and durable consumer goods by 0.2%.
Najveći uticaj na pad industrijske proizvodnje u avgustu
2014. godine, u odnosu na isti mesec 2013. godine, imale
su: proizvodnja električne energije, eksploatacija uglja, proizvodnja motornih vozila i prikolica, proizvodnja hemikalija i
hemijskih proizvoda i proizvodnja metalnih proizvoda, osim
mašina.
The greatest impact on the decrease of industrial production in August 2014, as compared to the same month of
2013, was made by: electricity generation, exploitation of
coal, manufacture of motor vehicles and trailers, manufacture of chemicals and chemical products and manufacture
of metal products, other than machinery.
Zalihe industrijskih proizvoda Stocks of industrial products
Zalihe industrijskih proizvoda u avgustu ove godine bile su
veće za 4,5%, u odnosu na avgust 2013. godine. Zalihe ruda
su veće za 2%, a zalihe prerađenih industrijskih proizvoda
za 4,5%. Na ovaj rast uticalo je povećanje zaliha energije,
intermedijarnih proizvoda i netrajnih proizvoda za široku
potrošnju, dok su, uglavnom, redukovane zalihe kapitalnih
proizvoda.
Stocks of industrial products in August this year increased
by 4.5%, as compared to August 2013. The stocks of ores
increased by 2%, while the stocks of processed industrial
products grew by 4.5%. This growth was mainly influenced
by the increase of the stocks of energy, intermediate products and non-durable consumer goods, whereas the stocks
of capital products were mostly decreased.
Najveći rast zaliha u posmatranom mesecu zabeležen
je kod: papira i papirnih proizvoda, proizvoda od gume i
plastike, koksa i derivata nafte i prehrambenih proizvoda;
a najveći pad zaliha kod: duvana i duvanskih proizvoda,
motornih vozila i prikolica, ostalih saobraćajnih sredstava
i ruda metala.
The highest growth in the stocks in the period observed was
recorded with: paper and paper products, rubber and plastic products, coke and oil derivates and food products; and
the largest drop in the stocks was noted with: tobacco and
tobacco products, motor vehicles and trailers, other means
of transportation and metal ores.
Poljoprivreda
Agriculture
U oblasti poljoprivrede, RZS je objavio podatke o ostvarenoj
proizvodnji pšenice i ranog voća, koji pokazuju da je, prema
stanju useva na dan 1.septembra 2014.godine, ostvarena
proizvodnja pšenice od 2.313.947 tona, što je za 14% manje u odnosu na proizvodnju ostvarenu u prošloj godini. U
odnosu na desetogodišnji prosek (2004-2013) proizvodnja
pšenice je veća za 10,3%.
In the field of agriculture, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia released the data on the realised production of
wheat and early fruit, which show that on 1 September 2014
the realised production of wheat amounted to 2,313,947 t,
which is lower by 14% as compared to the production recorded in the last year. In relation to the ten-year average
(2004-2013) the production of wheat increased by 10.3%.
Sa žetvenih površina od 1.085.485 hektara očekivana proizvodnja kukuruza je 7.313.998 tona, što je za 24,7% više u
odnosu na ostvarenu proizvodnju u 2013. godini i za 23,5%
više u odnosu na desetogodišnji prosek (2004-2013.).
The total harvest area of 1,085,485 ha is expected to provide the
production of maize of 7,313,998 t, which is higher by 24.7% in
comparison with the realised production in 2013 and by 23.5%
as compared with ten-year average (2004-2013).
Očekivana proizvodnja kasnih useva, posmatrano u odnosu
na 2013. godinu, beleži rast kod šećerne repe, za 4,4%, soje,
za 19,6% i suncokreta, za 0,2%.
Observed in comparison with 2013, the expected production of late crops recorded a growth in sugar cane of 4.4%,
soybean of 19.6% and sunflower of 0.2%.
Kod voćarskih kultura, posmatrano u odnosu na proizvodnju u 2013. godini, evidentirana je manja proizvodnja malina za 9,8% i višanja za 4,4%, a očekuje se veća proizvodnja
As far as fruit is concerned, if observed in relation to the production in 2013, lower production was noted with: raspberry by 9.8% and sour cherry by 4.4%, while higher production
2
jabuka za 2,3%, i značajno manja proizvodnja šljiva (- 49,7%)
i grožđa (- 61,8%).
is expected with apples of 2.3%, and substantially lower production of plums (- 49.7%) and grapes (- 61.8%).
Promet robe
Turnover of goods
Promet robe u trgovini na malo u Republici Srbiji, prema
svim avgustovskim pokazateljima RZS iskazao je rast. Posmatrano u stalnim cenama, u avgustu 2014. u odnosu
na isti mesec 2013. godine promet je povećan za 3,0%, u
odnosu na prosek 2013. godine za 8,8%, u periodu januar-avgust 2014. u odnosu na isti period 2013. godine za
2,5%, a u avgustu u odnosu na jul 2014. godine za 1,3%.
Posmatano u tekućim cenama, rast prometa ostvaren
je u avgustu 2014. u odnosu na avgust 2013. godine za
3,9%, u odnosu na prosek 2013.godine za 10,4%, u periodu januar-avgust 2014. u odnosu na januar-avgust 2013.
godine za 4,0%, a u avgustu 2014. u odnosu na prethodni
mesec iste godine za 1,1%.
Turnover in retail trade in the Republic of Serbia, according to all
August indicators, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
showed a growth. Observed at constant prices, in August 2014,
as compared to the same month of 2013, the turnover increased
by 3.0%, in comparison with the average 2013 by 8.8%, in the
period January - August 2014 if compared with the same interval of 2013, it grew by 2.5%, and in August, when compared
with July 2014, it increased by 1.3%. Observed at current prices,
a growth in turnover was realised in August 2014 as compared
to August 2013 by 3.9%, in relation to the average of 2013 by
10.4%, in the period January - August 2014, in relation to January
– August 2013, by 4.0%, while in August 2014, if compared with
the previous month of the same year by 1.1%.
Saobraćaj
Transport
U saobraćaju, u prvom polugodištu 2014. godine u odnosu
na isti period 2013. godine ukupan fizički obim usluga je
povećan za 19,0%. U kopnenom saobraćaju evidentiran je
pad fizičkog obima usluga od 0,9%, a posmatrano po pojedinim vidovima kopnenog saobraćaja, u železničkom saobraćaju evidentiran je rast od 1,2%, a u gradskom prevozu
zabeležen je rast od 2,3%, dok je u drumskom saobraćaju ostvaren pad od 3,2% i u cevovodnom transportu pad
od 0,9%. Najdinamičniji rast u prvom polugodištu 2014. u
odnosu na odgovarajuće polugodište prethodne godine
evidentiran je u vazdušnom i rečnom saobraćaju: 62,1%
i 42,2%, respektivno.
In transport, in the first half of 2014, when compared with the
same period of 2013, the total physical volume of services increased by 19.0%. A drop in the total physical volume of services
of 0.9% was recorded with the land transport, while observed
by individual forms of land transport, a growth was recorded
with the railway traffic of 1.2%, while the city transport saw an
increase of 2.3%, while a decrease of 3.2% was noted in the road
traffic, and a drop of 0.9% was recorded in pipeline transport.
The most dynamic growth in the first half of 2014, as compared
with the same period of the previous year, was noted in air and
river transportation: 62.1% and 42.2%, respectively.
Construction
Građevinarstvo
In construction, a majority of indicators show a sequel of adverse tendencies in the second quarter of 2014. The total value
of the works performed by contractors from the Republic of
Serbia decreased in the second quarter of 2014, as compared
to the second quarter of 2013, by 2.1% at current prices (by
5.7%, at constant prices). In the second quarter of 2014 only,
as compared to the first quarter of the same year, a growth of
27.4% was recorded, while if compared to the average of 2013
it recorded a drop of 15.3%, and in the first half of 2014, when
compared with the first half of 2013, a fall of 2.1% was noted.
U građevinarstvu, većina podataka ukazuje na nastavak nepovoljnih tendencija u drugom kvartalu 2014. godine. Ukupna vrednost izvedenih radova izvođača iz Republike Srbije
opala je u drugom kvartalu 2014. godine u odnosu na drugi
kvartal 2013. godine za 2,1% u tekućim cenama (u stalnim
cenama za 5,7%). Samo je u drugom kvartalu 2014. godine, u odnosu na prvi kvartal iste godine, ostvaren rast od
27,4%, dok je u odnosu na prosek 2013. godine evidentiran
pad od 15,3%, a u prvom polugodištu 2014. u odnosu na
prvo polugodište 2013. godine, pad od 2,1%.
Tourism
Turizam
Tourism activity in the Republic of Serbia, in the first eight
months of 2014, as compared to the same period of 2013,
showed that the total number of arrivals of tourists decreased
by 0.9% and the total number of overnight stays decreased by
7.3%. The number of domestic tourist arrivals and overnight
stays decreased by 10.1% and 13.9%, respectively. The international tourism turnover recorded favourable trends and saw a
growth in the number of foreign tourist arrivals by 12.9% and
number of their overnight stays by 9.3%. In the period January – August 2014, the Republic of Serbia was visited by a total of 1,489,833 (domestic and foreign) tourists and a total of
4,319,359 overnight stays were realised. The predominant share
of tourism turnover accounts for domestic tourism (54.4% of
the total number of arrivals and 66.5% of the total number of
overnight stays in the first eight months of 2014).
Turistička aktivnost u Republici Srbiji za prvih osam meseci 2014. godine, u odnosu na isti period 2013. godine,
iskazala je pad ukupnog broja dolazaka turista za 0,9%
i ukupnog broja noćenja za 7,3%. Broj dolazaka i noćenja domaćih turista opao je za 10,1% i 13,9%. Povoljniji trend ostvaren je u inostranom turističkom prometu,
budući da je povećan broj dolazaka inostranih turista za
12,9% i broj njihovih noćenja za 9,3%. Republiku Srbiju je
u periodu januar-avgust 2014. godine posetilo ukupno
1.489.833 (domaćih i stranih) turista i ostvareno je ukupno 4.319.359 noćenja. Dominantan deo turističkog prometa otpada na domaći turizam (54,4% od ukupnog broja
dolazaka i 66,5% od ukupnog broja noćenja u prvih osam
meseci 2014.).
3
Zaposlenost
Employment
Ukupan broj zaposlenih poslednjeg dana avgusta 2014.
godine procenjuje se na 1.687.106 lica, što je za 0,1% (za
2.336 lica) manje nego u prethodnom mesecu i za 1,3% (za
22.033 lica) manje nego u avgustu 2013. Od ukupnog broja
zaposlenih, 1.311.911 osoba radilo je kod pravnih lica, dok
je privatnih preduzetnika i zaposlenih kod njih ukupno bilo
375.195. Procene ukazuju da je broj zaposlenih u avgustu
ove godine, u odnosu na avgust prethodne godine, najviše
opao u prerađivačkoj industriji, u kojoj je broj radnika smanjen za 9.460 lica.
Total number of employed persons, on the last day of August
2014, was estimated at 1,687,106, which decreased by 0.1% (or
2,336 persons) as compared with the previous month and by
1.3% (or 22,033 persons) in relation to August 2013. Of the total
number of employed persons, 1,311,911 were employed with
legal entities, while the number of private entrepreneurs and
those employed with them amounted to 375,195. The estimates
show that the number of employed persons in August this year,
as compared with August of the previous year, the highest drop
was recorded with manufacturing industry, within which the
number of employed persons decreased by 9,460 persons.
Nezaposlenost
Unemployment
Ukupan broj nezaposlenih u Republici Srbiji, prema podacima Nacionalne službe za zapošljavanje, poslednjeg dana
avgusta 2014. godine iznosio je 757.243 lica, što je za 0,5%
manje u odnosu na stanje iz avgusta prethodne godine, i čak
za 1,6% manje u odnosu na stanje iz jula 2014. Na smanjenje broja nezaposlenih u avgustu ove godine za 12.097 lica
u odnosu na prethodni mesec, uticala je činjenica da je broj
novouposlenih i brisanih sa evidencije tokom izveštajnog
perioda značajno nadmašio broj novoprijavljenih na evidenciju. Najveći broj radnika koji su zaposleni u ovom mesecu,
ostvario je radni odnos na osnovu ugovora na određeno vreme. Stopa formalne nezaposlenosti za avgust iznosi 29,09%
i manja je u odnosu na prethodni mesec kada je iznosila
29,36%.
Total number of unemployed persons in the Republic of Serbia,
according to the data of the National Employment Office, on
the last day of August 2014, amounted to 757,243, which is a
decrease of 0.5% as compared with August of the previous year,
and even of 1.6% in relation to July 2014. The reduction of the
number of unemployed persons in August this year by 12,097, as
compared with the previous month, was influenced by the fact
that the number of newly employed persons and of those deleted from the registry during the reporting period substantially
exceeded the number of newly recorded persons. The largest
number of workers were employed in this month according to
temporary employment contract. Formal unemployment rate
for August amounts to 29.09% and is lower as compared with
the previous month, when it was 29.36%.
Zarade
Wages
Prosečna bruto zarada isplaćena u avgustu 2014. godine
bila je 62.992 dinara, što je u odnosu na prethodni mesec, nominalno i realno više za 1,0% i 1,2%, respektivno.
I u poređenju sa odgovarajućim mesecom 2013. godine,
prosečna zarada isplaćena u avgustu ove godine uvećana
je nominalno za 1,9%, a realno za 0,4%. Prosečna zarada
isplaćena u periodu januar–avgust 2014. godine, u poređenju sa prosečnom zaradom isplaćenom u periodu januar–avgust 2013. godine, nominalno je veća za 1,3%, dok je
realno manja za 0,8%.
The average gross wage paid out in August 2014 amounted to
62,992 RSD, which nominally increased by 1.0% and by 1.2% in
real terms, respectively, if compared with the previous month. If
compared with the corresponding month of 2013, the average
wage paid out in August this year increased nominally by 1.9%,
and in real terms by 0.4%. the average wage paid out in the period January – August 2014, in relation to the average wage paid
out in the period January – August 2013, increased nominally by
1.3%, while it decreased by 0.8% in real terms.
Zarade bez poreza i doprinosa
Wages without taxes and contributions
Prosečna neto zarada isplaćena u avgustu 2014. godine
iznosila je 45.610 dinara i u odnosu na prosečnu neto zaradu isplaćenu u prethodnom mesecu, nominalno je veća za
0,9%, a u realnom iznosu za 1,1%. U poređenju sa avgustom
2013. godine, njen nominalan rast iznosio je 1,9%, a realan
0,4%. Prosečna zarada bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćena u
periodu januar–avgust 2014. godine, u odnosu na prosečnu zaradu bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćenu u istom periodu
prethodne godine, nominalno je veća za 1,6%, dok je realno
manja za 0,5%.
The average net wage, paid out in August 2014, amounted to
45,610 RSD, and if compared with the average net wage paid
out in the previous month, it increased nominally by 0.9%,
and by 1.1% in real terms. In comparison with August 2013, its
nominally growth was 1.9% and 0.4% in real terms. The average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in the period January – August 2014, as compared to the average wage
without taxes and contributions paid out in the same period
of the previous year, increased nominally by 1.6%, whereas it
decreased by 0.5% in real terms.
Spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena
Foreign trade in goods
Ukupna spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena Republike Srbije u periodu januar – avgust 2014. godine iznosila je
23.688,7 miliona USD (17.347,2 miliona evra), što predstavlja rast od 6,9% (2,9%) u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Izvezeno je robe u vrednosti od 9.974,6
miliona USD (7.305,2 miliona evra) što je za 8,9% (4,9%)
više u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, a uvezeno je robe u vrednosti od 13.714,1 miliona USD (10.042,0
The total foreign trade in goods of the Republic of Serbia,
in the period January - August 2014, amounted to 23,688.7
million USD (17,347.2 million EUR), which was an increase
of 6.9% (2.9%) as compared with the same period of the previous year. The goods were exported in the value of 9,974.6
million USD (7,305.2 million EUR) which was by 8.9% (4.9%)
higher in comparison with the same period of the previous
year, while the goods were imported in the value of 13,714.1
4
miliona evra) , što je za 5,4% (1,5%) više nego u istom periodu prethodne godine.
million USD (10,042.0 million EUR) , which was by 5.4%
(1.5%) higher than in the same period of the previous year.
Deficit robne razmene u ovom periodu iznosio je 3.739,5
miliona USD (2.736,8 miliona evra), što čini smanjenje
od 2,9% (6,6%) u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, dok je pokrivenost uvoza izvozom 72,7% i veća je od
pokrivenosti u istom periodu prethodne godine, kada je
iznosila 70,4%. The deficit in trade in goods in this period amounted to 3,739.5
million USD (2,736.8 million EUR), which is a decrease of 2.9%
(6.6%) as compared with the same period of the previous year,
whereas the coverage of import by export was 72.7% and is
higher than the import/export coverage in the same period of
the previous year, when it amounted to 70.4%. 15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
3000
1000
-1000
-3000
-5000
-7000
-9000
(u mln. dolara)
15967
11375
8112
6461
2824
-3637
3931
-4181
12856
10548
10143
7699
5574
6024
5192
7859
7209
61%
57%
-8268
-5801
49%
48%
48%
-4951
-4524
-4997
13714
13009
12353
73%
9157
70%
9975
58%
-5145
2006
2007
2008
-3852
-3740
51%
2009
2010
2011
2012
15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
3000
1000
-1000
-3000
-5000
-7000
-9000
70%
60%
44%
2005
80%
2013
2014
50%
40%
Izvoz
Uvoz
15967
11375
8112
6461
2824
-3637
10143
7699
5574
3931
6024
5192
12856
10548
7859
7209
-5801
-8268
48%
49%
48%
2006
2007
-4181
-4951
70% 9975
58%
2008
-4524
-4997
-5145
-3852
-3740
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
51%
2009
70%
60%
44%
2005
80%
73%
9157
61%
57%
13714
13009
12353
50%
40%
(January-August)
(januar-avgust)
Saldo
(in USD mln.)
External trade balance
Import of goods
Pokrivenost uvoza izvozom (desna osa)
Export of goods
Export -Import Ratio (in %, Right Axis)
Spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena Srbije (I-VIII) 2005-2014. godine
Izvor: RZS.
Foreign trade of goods (I-VIII) 2005-2014. godine
Izvor: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
Najzanačajniji partner Srbije u ovom periodu bile su zemlje EU, koje učestvuju sa 64,2% u strukturi njene ukupne spoljnotrgovinske razmene. Drugi partner po značaju
bile su zemlje CEFTA, u koje je za osam meseci ove godine
izvezeno robe u iznosu od 1.886,1 milion USD i iz kojih
je uvezeno proizvoda za 583,9 milona USD, uz ostvareni
suficit od 1.302,2 miliona USD i visoku pokrivenost uvoza izvozom od 323,0%. U izvozu Srbije na područje CEFTA
zemalja dominirali su poljoprivredni i razni gotovi proizvodi, a u uvozu sa ovog područja, crni metali, električna
energija i ugalj.
The most important partner to Serbia in this period were the
EU member states, whose share is 64.2% in the structure of its
total foreign trade in goods. The second important partner to
Serbia were the CEFTA countries, where the export of goods for
the eight months this year amounted to 1,886.1 million USD and
from which products were imported in the value of 583.9 million
USD, with a realised surplus of 1,302.2 million USD and high coverage of import by export of 323.0%. The major goods in exports
from Serbia to the CEFTA countries were agricultural and miscellaneous finished products, while the major goods in the import
from this territory were ferrous metals, electricity and coal.
Pojedinačno, glavni spoljnotrgovinski partneri Srbije u izvozu za osam meseci ove godine, bili su: Italija (1.755,5 mil.
USD), Nemačka (1.232,6), Bosna i Hercegovina (862,5), Ruska
Federacija (679,8) i Crna Gora (519,0); a u uvozu: Nemačka
(1.641,6), Ruska Federacija (1.587,7 mil. USD), Italija (1.585,4),
Kina (1.032,9) i Poljska (683,7).
For the eight months this year, the main individual foreign
trade partners in the export of Serbia were: Italy (1,755.5 million USD), Germany (1,232.6), Bosnia and Herzegovina (862.5),
the Russian Federation (679.8) and Montenegro (519.0); and in
the import: Germany (1,641.6), the Russian Federation (1,587.7
million USD), Italy (1,585.4), China (1,032.9) and Poland (683.7).
Najveći suficit u periodu januar-avgust 2014. ostvaren je u
trgovini sa: Bosnom i Hercegovinom, Crnom Gorom, Makedonijom, Italijom, Rumunijom, SAD i Bugarskom; a najveći
deficit u razmeni sa Kinom (zbog uvoza telefona za mrežu
stanica i laptopova), Ruskom Federacijom (zbog uvoza energenata, pre svega, nafte i gasa), Poljskom (uvoz delova za
motorna vozila), Nemačkom, Mađarskom,Turskom, Austrijom i Holandijom.
In the period January - August 2014, the highest surplus was recorded in trade exchange with the following countries: Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Romania, the USA
and Bulgaria; and the largest deficit in trade exchange with China
(due to the import of the phones for the network of stations and
laptops), the Russian Federation (due to imports of energy sources, mainly oil and gas), Poland (import of parts for motor vehicles),
Germany, Hungary, Turkey, Austria and the Netherlands.
Prema odsecima Standardne međunarodne trgovinske
klasifikacije, u izvozu Srbije za osam meseci 2014. godine,
najveće učešće imali su: drumska vozila (1.442,2 mil. USD),
električne mašine i aparati (790,3), žitarice i proizvodi od
njih (490,7), povrće i voće (481,3) i obojeni metali (423,7),
što ukupno predstavlja 36,4% ukupnog izvoza.
According to the Sections of the Standard International Trade
Classification, for the eight months this year, the goods with
the largest share in the exports from Serbia were: road vehicles (1,442.2 million USD), electrical apparatus and machinery (790.3), cereals and products based on grains (490.7),
vegetable and fruit (481.3) and non-ferrous metals (423.7),
which accounts for 36.4% of total exports.
Prvih pet odseka sa najvećim učešćem u uvozu Srbije u
ovom peeriodu bili su: drumska vozila (1.504,7 mil. USD),
nafta i naftni derivati (1.165,5), prirodni gas (593,0), električne mašine i aparati (541,5) i medicinski i farmaceutski
proizvodi (468,2), a njihov uvoz čini 31,2% ukupnog uvoza
(odsek nerazvrstana roba, u koji se sada uključuje i roba na
carinskom skladištu, imao je učešće u ukupnom uvozu od
10,8%).
The first five sections with the largest share in imports were:
road vehicles (1,504.7 million USD), oil and oil derivatives
(1,165.5), natural gas (593.0), electrical apparatus and machinery (541.5) and medical and pharmaceutical products (468.2),
and these account for 31.2% of total imports (the section of unclassified goods, which now includes the goods in the customs
warehouses, recorded a share in total imports of 10.8%).
5
Bilans razmene poljoprivrede i prehrambene industrije
The balance of foreign trade in agriculture and food industry
Bilans razmene poljoprivrede i prehrambene industrije Srbije s
inostranstvom pokazuje da je u periodu januar - avgust 2014.
godine ostvaren izvoz u vrednosti od 1.934,9 miliona USD, što
predstavlja rast od 17,6% u odnosu na rezultate iz istog perioda
prethodne godine. Učešće izvoza ove vrste proizvoda u ukupnom robnom izvozu Srbije za posmatrani period iznosilo je
19,4%. Istovremeno, vrednost uvoza u visini od 1.029,9 miliona
USD je za 2,0% bila manja u odnosu na isti period prethodne
godine, a njeno učešće u ukupnom uvozu iznosilo je 7,5%.
Balance of foreign trade in agriculture and food industry of
Serbia, in the period January – August 2014, shows the export
value of 1,934.9 million USD, which was an increase of 17.6%
compared to the results from the same period of the previous
year. The share of this sector in the total goods export of Serbia
for the observed period was 19.4%. At the same time, the value
of imports of 1,029.9 million USD, was lower by 2.0% as compared to the same period of the previous year, with a share in
total goods imports of 7.5%.
U periodu januar-avgust 2014. zabeležen je suficit u spoljnotrgovinskoj razmeni poljoprivredno-prehrambenih proizvoda od 905,0 miliona USD, što je za 52,0% više u odnosu na
odgovarajući period 2013. godine. Istovremeno zabeležena
je visoka stopa pokrivenosti uvoza izvozom od 187,9%.
In the period January – August 2014, the surplus in foreign
trade in agricultural and food products of 905.0 million USD
was recorded, which was higher by 52.0% as compared to
the same period of 2013. At the same time, a high import/
export coverage rate of 187.9% was recorded.
Bilans razmene usluga sa inostranstvom
The balance of trade in services
Bilans razmene usluga Narodna banka Srbije objavila je u septembru 2014. godine za period januar-jul 2014. godine. Podaci se
zasnivaju na novoj metodologiji, prema Uputstvu Međunarodnog
monetarnog fonda «Balance of Payment Manual 6« (BPM6). Prema ovim podacima, za prvih sedam meseci 2014. godine ostvaren je izvoz usluga Srbije u vrednosti od 2.825 miliona USD i uvoz
u vrednosti od 2.546 miliona USD, tako da je ostvaren suficit od
279 miliona USD. Pokazatelj pokrivenosti uvoza izvozom za prvih
sedam meseci 2014. godine je 111%. U odnosu na isti vremenski
interval 2013. godine, evidentiran je rast izvoza usluga za 14,7%,
rast uvoza za 12,6% i rast suficita bilansa usluga za 39,2%.
Balance of foreign trade in services for the period January-July
2014, was announced by the National Bank of Serbia in September
2014. The data are based on the new methodology, under the IMF
Balance of Payment Manual, 6th edition (BPM6). According to these
data, exports of services from Serbia in the first seven months of
2014 stood at 2,825 million USD and imports stood at 2,546 million
USD, thus a surplus of 279 million USD was recorded. The indicator
of import/export coverage, in the first seven months of 2014, was
111%. As compared with the same interval of 2013, the exports of
services grew by 14.7%, and the imports grew by 12.6%, while the
surplus of balance of services increased by 39.2%.
Deficit tekućih transakcija
Current account deficit of balance of payments
Deficit tekućih transakcija platnog bilansa je (prema BPM6
MMF-a), u periodu januar-jul 2014. godine, iznosio 986 mln.
evra, što je manje u odnosu na isti period 2013. godine (indeks 87,4). Poboljšanje tekućeg računa je nastavljeno pretežno usled pozitivnih kretanja u robnoj razmeni. Sedmomesečni deficit robne razmene je smanjen na 2,2 mlrd. evra
(indeks 90,4), dok je suficit usluga za trećinu veći u odnosu
na isti period 2013. godine i iznosi 200 mln. evra. Robni izvoz
je, u prvih sedam meseci, rastao brže (7,7% međugodišnje) u
odnosu na rast uvoza robe (2,5%). Deficit na računu primarnog dohotka je porastao na 672 mln. evra, usled povećanih
isplata po osnovu kamata na portfolio investicije (199 mln.
evra, povećanje za 64%) i isplata po osnovu reinvestirane
dobiti i dividendi u okviru direktnih investicija. Suficit na
računu sekundarnog dohotka je smanjen usled smanjenih
priliva po osnovu doznaka. Prihodi po osnovu sekundarnog
dohotka su bili veći u odnosu na rashode za 1,7 mlrd. evra
(indeks 95,7), pri čemu je neto priliv doznaka radnika iz inostranstva, 1,1 mlrd. evra, bio manji za 184 mln. evra u odnosu
na isti period prošle godine.
Current account deficit of balance of payments (according to IMF
BPM6) in the period January-July 2014, totaled 986 million EUR,
which is lower compared to the same period in 2013 (index 87.4).
The improvement in the current account continued mainly due to
the positive trends in trade in goods. The seven-month deficit in
trade in goods was reduced to 2.2 billion EUR (index 90.4), while
the surplus in trade in services was higher by one third compared
to the same period of 2013, and stood at 200 million EUR. In the
first seven months, the export of goods grew faster (7.7% inter-annually) than the import (2.5%). The deficit on the primary income
account grew to 672 million EUR, due to the increased payments
against interest rates on portfolio investment (199 million EUR, an
increase of 64%), and the payments against the reinvested profit
and dividends within direct investments. The surplus on the secondary income account was lower due to the lower inflow from
remittances. The revenues from the secondary income were higher compared to the expenditures by 1.7 billion EUR (index 95.7),
whereby the net inflow of remittances from the workers from
abroad, standing at 1.1 billion EUR, decreased by 184 million EUR
as compared to the same period of the previous year.
(u mln. evra)
1500
(in EUR mln.)
1500
Sekundarni dohodak
1000
500
Secondary income
1000
Bilans usluga
Services
500
0
0
Primarni dohodak
-500
-500
Bilans tekućeg računa
-1000
-1000
-1500
-1500
-2000
-2000
-2500
Primary income
Current account
-2500
-3000
-3500
(I-VII) 2012
-3000
Bilans robe
(I-VII) 2013
-3500
(I-VII) 2012
(I-VII) 2014
Tekući račun platnog bilansa (I-VII) 2012- 2014. godine
Izvor: NBS.
Goods
(I-VII) 2013
Current Account Balance (I-VII) 2012 - (I-VII) 2014.
Source: National Bank of Serbia.
6
(I-VII) 2014
Strane direktne investicije
Foreign direct investments
Priliv SDI u prvih sedam meseci tekuće godine je izuzetno
nizak u odnosu na relane potrebe privrede. Primenom nove
metodologije BPM6 MMF-a, unete su izmene u obračunu
stranih direktnih investicija koje su, u periodu januar-jul
2014. godine, zabeležile neto priliv u vrednosti 657 mln. evra
(u istom periodu 2013. godine su iznosile 610 mln. evra). Naime, primenom nove metodologije saldo finansijskog računa
je povećan, usled većeg iznosa SDI novim obuhvatom podataka prelaskom na direktno izveštavanje i uključivanjem
reinvestirane dobiti. Najveći deo SDI je bio usmeren u sektore industrije, trgovine i finansija. Očekuje se da će neto SDI
u 2014. godini, koje bi prema projekciji NBS mogle dostići
1,25 mlrd. evra (3,9% BDP), pretežno biti usmerene u sektore energetike, prerađivačke industrije i trgovine na malo, pri
čemu se učešće sektora razmenjivih dobara u strukturi SDI
povećava.
Foreign direct investments inflow in the first seven months of 2014
was very low as compared to the real needs of the economy. With
the application of the new IMF BPM6 methodology, some changes have been introduced to the calculation of foreign direct investments, which recorded a net inflow of 657 million EUR in the period January-July 2014 (in the same period 2013, they amounted to
610 million EUR). With the application of the new methodology,
the balance of the financial account grew due to the higher FDI
amount, which resulted from a new coverage of the data, through
the shift to direct reporting and inclusion of reinvested profit. Major part of FDIs was directed to the sectors of industry, trade, and
finance. It is expected that net FDIs in 2014, which could reach 1.25
billion EUR (3.9% of GDP) according to the NBS projections, will be
directed mainly to the sectors of energy, manufacturing industry
and retail trade, whereby the sector of exchangeable goods has a
growing share in the FDI structure.
2500
(u mln. evra)
(u % BDP)
7.0%
2000
10.0%
2500
9.0%
8.0%
1500
3.8%
3.7%
1000
3.9%
4.3%
2000
4.3%
7.0%
6.0%
3.8%
1500
4.0%
0
2197
669
2010
2011
2012
Neto priliv SDI
610
657
2013 (I-VII) 2014 (I-VII)
1229
1250
1400
2013
2014*
2015*
Prosečan nivo SDI
8.0%
5.0%
2.3%
1000
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1040
9.0%
6.0%
3.0%
500
10.0%
7.0%
3.9%
3.7%
5.0%
2.3%
(as % of GDP)
7.0%
(in EUR mln.)
500
1.0%
0.0%
0
2.0%
1040
2197
669
2010
2011
2012
SDI/BDP
Net FDI
Direktne investicije, neto 2010-2013, projekcije 2014-2015.
Izvor: NBS.
610
657
2013 (I-VII) 2014 (I-VII)
FDI average
1229
1250
1400
2013
2014*
2015*
1.0%
0.0%
FDI/GDP
Direct investment, net 2010-2013, projection 2014-2015.
Source: National Bank of Serbia.
Spoljni dug
Foreign debt
Spoljni dug je, na kraju jula 2014. godine, iznosio 25,2 mlrd.
evra prema podacima NBS, i manji je za 592 mln. evra u odnosu na poslednji dan 2013. godine. Održana je povoljna
ročna struktura duga, uz kratkoročni spoljni dug u vrednosti
147 mln. evra i dugoročni 25,1 mlrd. evra. Spoljni dug javnog
sektora iznosi 12,9 mlrd. evra (51% ukupnog spoljnog duga)
a privatnog sektora 12,4 mlrd. evra. Poslednjeg dana jula
2014. godine spoljni dug banaka je, u odnosu na poslednji
dan 2013. godine, smanjen za 491 mln. evra i iznosi 2,9 mlrd.
evra, te bi nastavak razduživanja banaka tokom narednih
meseci 2014. godine rezultirao smanjenjem spoljne zaduženosti po ovom osnovu. Zaduženje sektora preduzeća povećano je, u odnosu na poslednji dan 2013. godine, za 191 mln.
evra i iznosi 9,5 mlrd. evra. Dalje spoljno zaduživanje javnog
sektora zavisiće od potreba finansiranja fiskalnog deficita i
saniranja efekata vremenskih nepogoda iz maja tekuće godine.
Foreign debt of Serbia, as at the end of July 2014, amounted to
25.2 billion EUR according to the NBS data, and it was lower by
592 million EUR compared to the last day of 2013. A favorable
maturity structure of the debt was maintained, with the shortterm foreign debt amounting to 147 million EUR, and the longterm debt of 25.1 billion EUR. Public sector foreign debt amounted to 12.9 billion EUR (51% of total foreign debt), and the private
sector foreign debt was 12.7 billion EUR. On the last day of July
2014, compared to the last day of 2013, foreign debt of banks
was lower by 491 million EUR and it amounted to 2.9 billion EUR,
and the continued debt repayment by the banks in the coming
months of 2014 would result in the reduction of foreign debt
on this ground. The debt of the company sector increased compared to the last day of 2013, by 191 million EUR and amounted
to 9.5 billion EUR. Further public sector borrowing will depend
on the needs of financing the fiscal deficit and elimination of the
consequences of the natural disaster from May this year.
Konsolidovani bilans sektora države
Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Public Sector
Konsolidovani bilans sektora države je, prema podacima
Ministarstva finansija, u prvih osam meseci 2014. godine
zabeležio deficit u vrednosti 122 mlrd. dinara što je realno
povećanje od 3,8% u odnosu na isti period 2013. godine.
U konsolidovanom bilansu je registrovano realno povećanje osmomesečnih javnih prihoda za 1,1% i rast rashoda za
1,4%, uz međugodišnju osmomesečnu inflaciju 2,1%. Deficit
na centralnom nivou države dostigao je 133 mlrd. dinara,
dok je lokalni nivo države bio u suficitu 10,6 mlrd. dinara.
Consolidated public sector balance sheet, according to the
Ministry of Finance, for the first eight months of 2014 recorded a deficit in the amount of 122 billion RSD, which is actually an increase of 3.8% compared to the same period in 2013.
The consolidated balance sheet shows a real growth in eightmonth public revenues of 1.1%, expenditure growth of 1.4%,
and the inter-annual eight-month inflation rate of 2.1%. The
deficit of the central government level reached 133 billion
RSD, while the local government was in surplus of 10.6 billion
7
Konsolidovani prihodi su, u prvih osam meseci 2014. godine,
dostigli 980 mlrd. dinara, a rashodi 1.102 mlrd. dinara. Najveći deo osmomesečnih poreskih prihoda potiče od doprinosa (283 mlrd. dinara), prihoda od PDV-a koji su dostigli 261
mlrd. dinara (od čega je PDV iz uvoza 185 mlrd. din. a PDV
u zemlji 75 mlrd. din.), i akciza (134 mlrd. dinara, pri čemu
su najveći prihodi od akciza na derivate nafte 76 mlrd. din i
na duvanske proizvode 49 mlrd. din.). Najveći deo rashoda
čine izdaci za penzije (337 mlrd. dinara) i rashodi za zaposlene (256 mlrd. dinara). Za otplatu kamate je utrošeno 76
mlrd. dinara.
RSD. Consolidated revenues for the first eight months of 2014
reached 980 billion RSD and expenditures stood at 1,102 billion
RSD. The largest part of eight-month revenues comes from contributions (283 billion RSD), revenues from VAT, which reached
261 billion RSD (of which import VAT 185 billion RSD and VAT in
the country 75 billion RSD), and excise taxes (134 billion RSD,
with the largest revenues from excise duties on oil derivatives
76 billion RSD and tobacco products 49 billion RSD). The largest portion of expenditures accounted for pensions (337 billion
RSD) and expenses for employees (256 billion RSD). For interest
payments 76 billion RSD were spent.
Javni dug
Public Debt
Ukupan javni dug centralnog nivoa vlasti je, prema podacima Uprave za javni dug, na dan 31. avgusta 2014. godine
povećan na 21,9 mlrd. evra, za 1,7 mlrd. evra u odnosu na
poslednji dan 2013. godine (kada je iznosio 20,1 mlrd. evra),
od čega je spoljni javni dug dostigao 13,2 mlrd. evra, a unutrašnji 8,7 mlrd. evra. Javni dug je, poslednjeg dana avgusta,
dostigao 67,9% BDP-a. Učešće domaće valute u ukupnom
javnom dugu je 22%, dok je najveće učešće duga u evrima
(43%) i USD (29%). U strukturi kamatnih stopa 76% su fiksne
kamatne stope a 24% varijabilne. Najveći kreditori su Evropska investiciona banka i EBRD. Mere fiskalne konsolidacije i
smanjenje fiskalnog deficita su jedini efiksan put održivog
smanjenja i stabilizacije javnog duga u periodu 2014-2016.
godine.
Total public debt of the central government, according to the
Public Debt Directorate of the Republic of Serbia, on 31 August
2014, increased to 21.9 billion EUR, i.e. by 1.7 million EUR compared to the last day of 2013 (when it stood at 20.1 billion EUR),
out of which foreign debt totaled 13.2 billion EUR, and the internal debt stood at 8.7 billion EUR. On the last day of August,
the public debt reached 67.9% of GDP. The share of the domestic currency in the public debt was 22%, while the largest share
of debt was in EUR (43%) and USD (29%). In the structure of
interest rates, 76% were fixed rates and 24% were variable ones.
The largest creditors are the European Investment Bank and
the EBRD. Fiscal consolidation measures and the fiscal deficit
are the only efficient way to sustainable reduction and stabilization of the public debt in the period 2014-2016.
20,000
15,000
10,000
48.2%
Zakonska granica
29.2%
75%
(u % BDP)
(u mln. evra)
34.8%
60.2%
63.8%
67.9%
60%
15,000
45%
44.5%
10,000
30%
5,000
0
20,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014.
(31. 08.)
48.2%
Limit by Law
29.2%
34.8%
60.2%
63.8%
67.9%
0
0%
60%
45%
44.5%
30%
5,000
15%
2008
(as % of GDP) 75%
(in EUR mln.)
15%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014.
(31.08.)
0%
(December 31)
(na dan 31. decembar)
Domestic Debt (Left Axis)
External Debt (Left Axis)
Public Debt to GDP ratio (Right Axis)
Unutrašnji javni dug (leva osa)
Spoljni javni dug (leva osa)
Јavni dug/BDP (desna osa)
Public Debt 2008-2014.
Source: National Bank of Serbia.
Javni dug, 2008-2014. godine
Izvor: NBS.
Devizne rezerve
Foreign exchange reserves
Devizne rezerve NBS poslednjeg dana avgusta 2014. iznosile su 10.949,2 miliona evra, što obezbeđuje pokrivenost
novčane mase M1 od 304% i više od sedam meseci uvoza
robe i usluga. U poređenju s prethodnim mesecom, devizne rezerve NBS su povećane za 826 miliona evra, a najveći devizni priliv je ostvaren po osnovu korišćenja kredita
od Ujedinjenih Arapskih Emirata u iznosu od 748,3 miliona evra.
Foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Serbia at
the end of August amounted to 10,949.2 million EUR, which
provides coverage of 304% of the money supply M1 and more
than seven-month imports of goods and services. As compared with the previous month, the NBS foreign exchange reserves increased by 826 million EUR, and the largest inflow of
foreign exchange was on ground of the loan from the United
Arab Emirates, in the amount of 748.3 million EUR.
U avgustu je evidentiran i rast deviznih rezervi komercijalnih
banaka za 84 miliona evra, tako da su ukupne devizne rezerve Republike Srbije u ovom mesecu dostigle iznos od 12.171
milion evra, što je za oko milijardu i deset miliona evra više
nego u prethodnom mesecu.
In August, the foreign exchange reserves of the commercial
banks recorded an increase of 84 million EUR, so that the total
foreign exchange reserves of the Republic of Serbia reached
the amount of 12,171 million EUR, which is higher by about one
billion and ten million EUR, compared to the previous month.
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Foreign exchange Reserves, 2004-2014 (mil. EUR)
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Devizne rezerve, 2004-2014. (mil. evra)
Izvor: Narodna banka Srbije
Kurs dinara
RSD exchange rate
Kurs dinara je tokom avgusta ove godine nominalno depresirao za 0,9% u odnosu na evro, iako je NBS intervenisala
na međubankarskom deviznom tržištu prodajom 60 miliona evra kako bi smanjila prekomerne kratkoročne oscilacije
deviznog kursa. Imajući u vidu da je depresijacija kursa dinara zabeležena i u prethodnom mesecu, može se reći da
je domaća nacionalna valuta u prvih osam meseci značajno
oslabila u odnosu na evro. Tako je dinar poslednjeg dana avgusta ove godine, obezvređen za 2,7% u odnosu na evro, što
se odražava i na nominalni i realni efektivni kurs, koji su u
avgustu depresirali za 1,2% i 1,5%, respektivno.
RSD exchange rate depreciated nominally by about 0.9% against
EUR in August 2014, although the National Bank of Serbia intervened in the interbank foreign exchange market by selling 60
million EUR in order to reduce excessive short-term volatility in
exchange rates. Having in mind that the RSD exchange rate depreciation was recorded in the previous month, too, it can be said
that the national currency depreciated substantially against EUR
in the first eight months. Thus, on the last day of August this year,
RSD depreciated against EUR by 2.7%, which also aﬀected the
nominal and real eﬀective exchange rates, which depreciated by
1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, in August.
Mesečne promene realnog efektivnog kursa u 2013. i 2014. (2005=100)
Izvor: Narodna banka Srbije
Real Eﬀective Excange Rates, 2013-2014, Monthly Cnhanges (2005=100)
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Monetarni pokazatelji
Monetary indicators
Novčana masa M1 poslednjeg dana avgusta ove godine
iznosila je 425,2 mlrd. dinara, što je za oko 24 mlrd. više u
odnosu na prethodni mesec, a rast su izkazali i svi ostali monetarni agregati.
Money supply (M1) on last day of August this year totaled
425.2 billion RSD which is about 24 billion more than in the
previous month. Growth was also recorded with all other
monetary aggregates.
Ukupna štednja stanovništva je poslednjeg dana avgusta
premašila bilion dinara, a uprkos padu kursa dinara, ukupna štednja stanovništva, izraženo u evrima, dostigla je
rekordan iznos od 8,6 milijardi. U poređenju s prethodnim
mesecom, štednja stanovništva se uvećala za oko 4,3 miliona evra.
Total citizens’ savings in August 2014 exceeded one billion dinars, and in spite of the depreciation of RSD exchange rate, total citizens’ savings denominated in EUR,
reached the record amount of 8.6 billion. As compared to
the previous month, the citizens’ savings were higher by
4.3 million EUR.
Izvršni odbor NBS odlučio je na septembarskojsednici, da
referentnu kamatnu stopu zadrži na postojećem nivou od
8,5%. Pri donošenju odluke da referentnu kamatnu stopu
zadrži na nepromenjenom nivou, Izvršni odbor je pre svega
imao u vidu i dalje prisutne neizvesnosti iz domaćeg i međunarodnog okruženja.
At the meeting held in September, the Executive Board of
the National Bank of Serbia decided to keep the reference
interest on the current level of 8.5%. In making the decision
to keep the reference interest rate on the unchanged level,
the Executive Board took into account the uncertainties in
the country and the region.
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Tržište kapitala
Capital market
Informacije o prometu na Beogradskoj berzi pokazuju da je
u septrembru 2014. godine, u odnosu na prethodni mesec,
zabeležen rast vrednosti glavnih indeksa, BELEX15 i BELEXline od po 5,0%. U poređenju sa krajem prethodne godine,
oba ovogodišnja septembarska indeksa Beogradske berze
su u plusu, BELEX15 za 18,5%, a BELEXline za 19,4%. Septembarski rast indeksa Beogradske berze je u suprotnosti
sa dešavanjima na najznačajnijim berzama u svetu, gde je,
uglavnom, prisutan pad vrednosti vodećih indeksa (DJIA,
SP500, E100).
Belgrade Stock Exchange transactions data show that, in
September 2014, compared to the previous month, the
leading indexes BELEX15 and BELEXline recorded a growth
of 5.0% respectively. As compared to the end of the previous year, both September indexes on the Belgrade Stock Exchange showed increase, BELEX15 was higher by 18.5% and
BELEXline by 19.4%. The September growth of the Belgrade
Stock Exchange indexes is contrary to the trends in the major stock exchanges in the world, which recorded mainly a
fall in the value of leading indexes (DJIA, SP500, E100).
Promene na svetskim berzama, septembar 2014.
(stope, prethodni mesec=100)
Izvor: Svetske berze
Changes in International Capital Markets, september 2014.
(rates according to privious month)
Izvor: National captilal markets, data
Privatizacija
Privatization
Prema izveštaju Agencije za privatizaciju, u avgustu 2014.
godine, nije bilo novih privatizacija putem tendera i aukcija, dok je na tržištu kapitala registrovana jedna transakcija
preduzeća s kojim je prethodno raskinut ugovor, i ostvaren
prihod od prodaje u vrednosti 36,0 hljd. evra, dok su privatizacioni prihodi u prvih osam meseci 2014. godine dostigli
oko 5,2 mln. evra. Prema podacima Ministarstva privrede,
dostavljeno je 1.732 ponude za 403 preduzeća u restrukturiranju. Prema izmenama i dopunama Zakona o privatizaciji,
privatizacija društvenog kapitala će biti okončana do kraja
2015. godine.
Privatization Agency has announced that in August 2014,
there were no new privatization tenders and auctions, while
the capital market recorded a transaction of a previously
privatized enterprise, with a terminated contract, and the
sales revenues of 36.0 thousand EUR, while the privatization
revenues in the first eight months of 2014, reached about
5.2 million EUR. According to the Ministry of Economy, 1,732
bids were submitted for 403 enterprises under restructuring.
According to the amendments to the Law on Privatization,
privatization of the socially-owned capital will be completed
by the end of 2015.
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