2011 Census at a glance (First Release) July 2012 This paper provides an overview of the headline Census figures for Cornwall following the first release of statistics from the 2011 Census on 16 July 2012. Headlines Population continues to grow: The usual resident population of England & Wales at census day 2011 was 56,075,900; an increase of 7.1% since 2001. Cornwall population’s has risen to 532,300, an increase of 6.7% since 2001. 523,400 (98.3%) in Cornwall live in households – giving an average household size of 2.27 – with a further 8,800 living in communal establishments (1.7%). There are 230,400 households in Cornwall an increase of 6.8% since 2001. Change: The changes in Cornwall’s age structure are as would be expected. Numbers of residents in the 5-14, 30-39 and 50-59 age groups have decreased in Cornwall over the last decade. Due to younger migration and more births the numbers of residents in the 0-4, 15-29 age groups have increased, along with those aged 40-49. As with the rest of the UK, Cornwall’s population continues to grow older with increases in the 60-74, 75-84 and 85+ age groups. Impacts: Census figures provide the most complete source of information we have about the population. The detailed information that Census provides us helps us to understand our communities and the characteristics of people who live and work in Cornwall, this will help us to plan and deliver services for the future and inform policy decisions for years to come. These figures are also used over the next 10 years to inform both projections and funding so it is key that these figures are as accurate as possible to ensure that Cornwall gets its rightful share of future Government resources. The population figures for Cornwall are lower than expected and represent a nominal reduction from published mid year estimates of population from ONS. This does not however represent a decline. It is normal for the release of Census figures to lead to a revision of previously published estimates. The Council will be looking to better understand the reasons behind the apparent slowdown in population and housing identified through these figures and will be undertaking a process of cross referencing and analysis of local data. Total Population Cornwall (the black bar) compared to other upper tier authorities Total Population Headline figure Population Change 1961-2011 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) The population of Cornwall has increased by 33,233 when compared with estimates from the 2001 Census. These figures see Cornwall become the largest unitary authority but the rise is lower than anticipated showing a slowdown in recent growth levels. Cornwall: Total population 1961-2011 Cornwall 600 532,300 Cornwall 500 SW EN&W 400 300 5.3m 56.1m Thousands Thousands Total Population: All English Unitary Authorities 2011 600 500 400 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 1961 Population by Age 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) As with the rest of the UK, Cornwall’s population continues to grow older the pyramids below highlight the aging of the ‘baby boom’ cohort over the last three decades. Cornwall: 1991 Cornwall: 2001 Cornwall: 2011 85+ 80‐84 75‐79 70‐74 65‐69 60‐64 55‐59 50‐54 45‐49 40‐44 35‐39 30‐34 25‐29 20‐24 15‐19 10‐14 5‐9 0‐4 85+ 80‐84 75‐79 70‐74 65‐69 60‐64 55‐59 50‐54 45‐49 40‐44 35‐39 30‐34 25‐29 20‐24 15‐19 10‐14 5‐9 0‐4 85+ 80‐84 75‐79 70‐74 65‐69 60‐64 55‐59 50‐54 45‐49 40‐44 35‐39 30‐34 25‐29 20‐24 15‐19 10‐14 5‐9 0‐4 25000 15000 5000 5000 15000 25000 25000 15000 5000 5000 15000 25000 25000 15000 5000 5000 15000 25000 Cornwall Council, Community Intelligence Team, [email protected] 2 Change 2001 – 2011 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) An overall increase in population of 6.7% is lower than the average for the South West and for England and Wales. There is substantial fluctuation in the change in age groups highlighting significant increases in the 15-29, 40-49 and 60-90 age groups. 2001-2011 Change (%) all English Unitary Authorities 20 2001-2011 Change (%) by Age Group Cornwall 50 6.7% 40 30 15 SW EN&W 10 7% 7.1% 20 10 0 Cornwall 5 -10 Population aged 0-19 85 to 89 90 and over 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 5 to 9 0 to 4 -5 10 to 14 -20 0 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) The number of 0-19 year olds in Cornwall has risen to 115,300. This increase of 21.7% is marginally lower than regional and national averages. The overall increase in this age range is a moderate 2.4% but this masks the more significant 6.9% decrease in the 5-14 age range and average increase in the 0-4 and 15-19 age ranges of 8%. Change (2001-2011) Cornwall 2011 115,300 Cornwall 21.7% SW EN&W 22.6% 24% 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 Cornwall Council, Community Intelligence Team, [email protected] 3 Population aged 20-64 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) The greatest increases in this age range are seen at both ends with the 20-24 and 60-64 age groups seeing a 28% and 42% rise respectively. These figures identify a rise in young adults remaining or returning to Cornwall and support migration evidence that fewer 20-24 year olds are leaving the county to pursue employment and education opportunities elsewhere. The large numbers of 60-64 year olds can be identified as the ‘Baby Boom’ generation and can be traced back in the two previous Censuses as the largest population group. Change (2001-2011) Cornwall 2011 Cornwall 15000 56.7% 10000 5000 57.9% 59.6% 0 -5000 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 -10000 20 to 24 301,900 SW EN&W Population aged 65-84 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) The total number of 65-84 year olds has risen to 99,500. The largest change in this age range is among the 65-69 age groups with an average increase of 31.3% on 2001 figures. This group can also been considered as part of the ‘Baby Boom’ generation but also reflects the large number of people the have migrated to Cornwall in their pre-retirement years. Cornwall 2011 Change (2001-2011) Cornwall 99,500 18.7% SW EN& W 16.7% 14.2% 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 Population aged 85+ (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) There is a substantial increase in the number of people living in Cornwall over the age of 85. The 2,608 increase from 2001 estimates supports the understanding that people are generally living longer. Cornwall 2011 Cornwall 2.9% 15,700 SW EN&W 2.9% 2.2% Cornwall Council, Community Intelligence Team, [email protected] 4 Short Term Non-UK Residents1 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) Cornwall has a relatively low number of short term non-UK residents when compared to other areas in the South West. These figures are not included within the resident population figures however, they would account for an additional 0.08% of people if they were added. South West Non-UK Resident No’s 2011 Cornwall 400 2,500 2,000 SW EN 1,500 1,000 11,5k 195.1k Cornwall (%) Non-UK Residents as a proportion of total population Torbay UA 0.08% Isles of Scilly UA North Somerset UA Poole UA Gloucestershire South… Swindon UA Cornwall UA Dorset Wiltshire UA Somerset Plymouth UA Devon Bournemouth UA Bristol, City of UA 0 Bath and North… 500 1 The main population base for outputs from the 2011 Census is the usual resident population as at census day (27 March 2011). Although the population base for enumeration included non-UK short-term residents, these are not included in the 2011 Census, but are analysed separately. All outputs, unless specified, are produced using only usual residents of the For 2011 Census purposes, a usual resident of the UK is anyone who, on census day, was in the UK and had stayed or intended to stay in the UK for a period of 12 months or more, or had a permanent UK address and was outside the UK and intended to be outside the UK for less than 12 months. A census short-term UK resident is anyone born outside the UK who has stayed or intends to stay in the UK for a period of three months or more but less than 12 months. Households Cornwall (the black bar) compared to other areas Headline figure Change in Cornwall over time Total Households (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) The total number of households in Cornwall has risen to 230,400; this is an increase of 7% from 2001, which is a slower rate of growth than in previous decades. These figures require further investigation to understand the reasons behind this. Total Households all English Unitary Authorities 2011 Cornwall Council, Community Intelligence Team, [email protected] 2001-11 1991-01 0 2,264,600 23,366,000 1981-91 50 SW EN&W 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1971-81 100 230,400 1961-71 150 Cornwall 1951-61 200 Cornwall Thousands 250 Cornwall: Total Household Change 1961-2011 5 Communal Establishments2 (2011 Census, 1st Release, July 2012, ONS) Despite its relative size in comparison to other Unitary Authorities, Cornwall has a lower number of residents living in communal establishments than Nottingham, Durham, Wiltshire and Bristol. These areas all have either large university, military, health and care establishments or prison populations or a combination of the aforementioned establishments. Cornwall 18 8,800 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Cornwall SW EN&W 113,900 1,003,300 Cornwall: Communal Establishments 2001-2011 Thousands Communal Establishments all English Unitary Authorities 2011 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8 2001 2011 0 2 A communal establishment is an establishment providing managed residential accommodation. ‘Managed’ in this context means full-time or part-time supervision of the accommodation. Including: Health and Care Establishments (including includes National Health Service (NHS) and private hospitals and hospices, care homes, nursing homes, residential homes, mental health establishments, children’s homes, maternity units and rehabilitation centres); Access Restricted Establishments (prisons, military and others such as consulates and royal households); Educational Establishments (including university halls of residence, boarding schools, residential schools for disabled children, theological and training colleges): Sheltered accommodation units where fewer than 50 per cent of the units in the establishment have their own cooking facilities, or similar accommodation where elderly people have their own rooms, but the main meal is provided, should be defined as communal establishments; and Other Managed Establishments (includes hotels, guest houses, bed and breakfasts with room for 10 or more guests, health farms, holiday camps, youth hostels). This release is the first of four and will only provide headline figures for Cornwall; further detailed statistics will be released between Nov 2012 and October 2013. Further details of the release plans for the 2011 Census statistics can be found on the ONS website: 2011 Census Prospectus. The figures provided in this brief will also include comparison to other geographical areas, and changes over time; its purpose is to provide a brief profile, but it does not attempt to draw conclusions or make policy recommendations. Cornwall Council, Community Intelligence Team, [email protected] 6
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