MUNICIPAL MARKET UPDATE 2 0 14 Munis Follow Script, But Rates May Direct Act II Highlights }October marked the 10th consecutive month of gains for the municipal bond market. }Although a positive month, it was a volatile one—a trend that is likely to continue as the Fed and interest rate policy attracts greater attention. }After 852 costly days, Stockton (CA) emerged from bankruptcy. Bondholders took a haircut in the restructuring, while pensioners were unimpaired. Peter Hayes Market Overview Munis followed their seasonal script in October, but not without some drama (i.e., volatility). Economic weakness in Europe stoked an investor flight to safety early in the month that benefited both municipal bonds and U.S. Treasuries. As investors turned their sights back to risk assets in the latter half of the month, the municipal market saw somewhat of a correction, but not enough to interrupt its perfect performance streak. As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its extraordinary program of bond purchases (quantitative easing, or QE) in October, with little market impact. For the most part, municipal bonds took directional cues from the Treasury market, but were unable to keep pace with their taxable counterparts. Still, munis continue to offer attractive value, particularly on an after-tax basis. In terms of supply/demand, October played out as expected in that muni supply increased (as issuers move to execute deals before year-end) and demand waned. New issuance of $36 billion was 45% higher than the prior month; demand was a slower but respectable $2.7 billion, bringing the year-to-date flows into municipal Managing Director and Head of the Municipal Bonds Group James Schwartz Managing Director and Head of Municipal Credit Research Sean Carney Director and Municipal Strategist BlackRock Municipals Group Number of members: 52 Average years’ experience: 18 Assets under management (9/30/14): $114 billion Strategy and Outlook The volatility seen in October is likely to continue as the Fed and interest rates play a larger role in the market. Now that QE has ended, the markets will begin to anticipate the Fed’s next move (i.e., interest rate hikes). Duration } Neutral Yield Curve } Barbell (0-2 and 10-15 years) While investors should prepare for more market gyrations and potential corrective action, we would stress that both supply/demand and market fundamentals are solid and the asset class represents good value from an income and credit quality perspective. } Locals in lien-status states, particularly CA school districts Overweight Sectors } State tax-backed and essential-service bonds, particularly the Southwest (TX), Plains and Southeast (VA) regions } Dedicated-tax bonds Underweight Sectors } Land-secured, senior-living and pre-refunded bonds } Student loans } Local tax-backed issues, particularly in AL, NV, AZ, MI, IL, RI and PR Making Headlines Stockton (CA) made headlines in October when a federal judge approved its bankruptcy exit plan. While health care benefits to retirees were cut, the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) was not impaired as part of the debt restructuring, despite a recent ruling that such an impairment would be legal under federal law. Ultimately, the issue of whether public pensions could be cut in a Chapter 9 negotiation was not addressed in Stockton, leaving the market without a legal precedent on this front. Like the harsh lesson learned in Detroit, bondholders remain below public pensioners in bankruptcy restructurings, and need to be particularly cautious in the case of fiscal distress. In New York, Goldman Sachs sold $1.68 billion in bonds to finance the construction of the 80-story, 3 World Trade Center project. The bonds were issued under the Liberty Bond Program that was put in place after 9/11 to fund improvements to downtown Manhattan. As such, the deal offered investors a rare opportunity to buy triple-tax-exempt high yield paper. MONTHLY CHANGE IN YIELDS AAA Muni Yield (%) Term 2 years 10/31/14 9/30/14 10/31/14 0.36 0.36 0.57 0.49 1.17 1.12 1.76 1.61 10 years 2.17 2.07 2.49 2.34 30 years 3.09 3.01 3.20 3.07 MUNICIPAL AND TREASURY CURVES, 10/31/14 4.0% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 2 yrs 5 yrs The S&P Municipal Bond Index returned 0.55% in October, bringing year-to-date gains to 8.49%. Performance continues to be led by long maturities, which are now up a remarkable 13.93% for the year. High yield also remains a standout, despite modest underperformance for the month. Across sectors, lifecare and health care did well, while public power trailed in October. As shown at right, both muni and Treasury rates fell on the month, with Treasuries experiencing a larger move. 10 yrs 30 yrs TERM AAA Munis Treasuries Sources: BlackRock; Bloomberg. MUNICIPAL PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Oct. 2014 YTD 2014 S&P Municipal Bond Index 0.55% Long maturities (20+ yrs.) 0.73 13.93 Intermediate maturities (3-14 yrs.) 0.51 6.54 Short maturities (6 mos.-3 yrs.) 0.08 1.08 -0.03 12.94 Pre-refunded bonds 0.13 1.72 General obligation (GO) bonds 0.51 7.13 High yield By the Numbers Treasury Yield (%) 9/30/14 5 years YIELD funds to $20.8 billion. Meanwhile, state and local governments have been prudent in balancing revenues and spending, a positive for creditworthiness and overall market fundamentals. States that are struggling tend to be those with burdensome pension obligations. 8.49% Regions California 0.69 9.76 Florida 0.66 8.69 New Jersey 0.58 8.03 New York 0.49 7.85 Pennsylvania 0.68 8.92 -1.83 9.02 Puerto Rico Source: S&P Indexes. For additional information, or to subscribe to monthly updates to this piece, please visit blackrock.com. Investment involves risk. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. There may be less information available on the financial condition of issuers of municipal securities than for public corporations. The market for municipal bonds may be less liquid than for taxable bonds. A portion of the income may be taxable. Some investors may be subject to Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital gains distributions, if any, are taxable. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Nov. 7, 2014, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Any investments named within this material may not necessarily be held in any accounts managed by BlackRock. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.. ©2014 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. 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