ODIN Eiendom Årskommentar 2015 Fondets portefølje ODIN Eiendom C - desember 2015 Avkastning siste måned og hittil i år ● Fondet leverte siste måned en avkastning på 6,3 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning var 8,3 prosent. ● Hittil i år er fondets avkastning 28,3 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning er 38,0 prosent hittil i år. Kjøp og salg siste måned og hittil i år ● Vi har ikke gjort noen vesentlige endringer i porteføljen i Desamber. ● Hittil i år er de største endringene kjøp av i Balder, Sagax, Victoria Park og Hemfosa, samt salg av Norwegian Property, Citycon, Sponda, Castellum og Olav Thon. Bidragsytere siste måned og hittil i år ● De beste bidragsyterne siste måned var Balder og Sagax. ● De svakeste bidragsytere siste måned var Entra og Diös. ● Hittil i år er de beste bidragsyterne Balder og Sagax. ● De svakeste bidragsyterne hittil i år er Entra og Wallenstam. ODIN Eiendom - desember 2015 Prising av fondet ● ● ● ● Fondet prises til 15,2 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater. Fondet gir en forventet direkteavkastning på 3,0 prosent. Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises fondet til 1,4 ganger. Selskapene i fondet har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 8,4 prosent. Prising av N/A - Carnegie Sweden Real Estate ● ● ● ● Markedet prises til 0,0 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater. Markedet gir en direkteavkastning på 0,0 prosent. Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises markedet til 0,0 ganger. Selskapene i Carnegie Sweden Real Estate har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 0,0 prosent. Makroøkonomi ● OECDs ledende indikatorer viser nå en endringstakt under trend for økonomiene i området de seneste månedene. Finansmarkedene i 2015 Den globale veksten antas å bli 2,9 prosent i 2015, noe svakere enn 3,3 prosent året før. Veksten i Kina, India og Brasil var svakere i 2015 enn i 2014, mens eurosonen og Japan hadde høyere vekst enn året før. I USA var veksten på 2,4 prosent i 2015 – nøyaktig det samme som i 2014. Også i aksjemarkedet har det vært store variasjoner. De brede britiske og amerikanske aksjeindeksene hadde en liten nedgang i 2015, mens flere europeiske børser steg mellom 5 og 10 prosent. Børsene i Kina var preget av store svingninger, med et spesielt bratt fall i sommer, men for året som helhet hadde Shanghai-børsen en oppgang på over 9 prosent. Oslo Børs steg med 6 prosent, til tross for at oljeprisen falt fra 67 til 37 USD pr. fat i løpet av året. Lange tyske og amerikanske renter steg marginalt i 2015. I mars startet den europeiske sentralbanken sitt program for kjøp av obligasjoner, såkalte kvantitative lettelser, med mål om å holde rentene nede og stimulere økonomien. Inflasjonen i eurosonen er imidlertid fortsatt godt under målet på 2 prosent. I USA, derimot, har økonomien lenge vært i bedring, og i desember kom omsider Federal Reserves lenge varslede renteøkning. Perioden med nullrentepolitikk i USA er dermed over. I Norge har sentralbanken kuttet styringsrenten to ganger, til 0,75 prosent, i 2015. Det er negative effekter av fallet i oljeprisen og nedgang i oljeinvesteringene som er bakgrunnen for rentekuttene, og det forventes at styringsrenten skal videre ned i 2016. Real GDP, annual percentage changes 2014 2015 2016 2017 World 3,3 2,9 3,3 3,6 United States 2,4 2,4 2,5 2,4 Euro Area 0,9 1,5 1,8 1,9 Japan -0,1 0,6 1 0,5 China 7,3 6,8 6,5 6,2 India 7,3 7,2 7,3 7,4 Brazil 0,2 -3,1 -1,2 1,8 Source: OECD Den norske kronen har svekket seg kraftig, og mens oljeindustrien sliter, har kronesvekkelsen bidratt positivt for eksportrettet norsk industri. Geopolitisk uro har preget året som gikk, blant annet gjennom konflikten mellom Russland og Ukraina, og ved Islamsk Stats fremmarsj i Midtøsten. Finansielle ubalanser i Kina har skapt frykt i finansmarkedene, men med unntak av det kraftige aksjefallet i sommer, har det så langt vært mer en oppbremsing enn et krakk. Oppbremsingen i Kina har imidlertid hatt stor negativ effekt på verdens råvare-markeder. I Europa ble Hellas og dets kreditorer endelig enige om en gjeldsavtale i juli, og et viktig fokus for EU etter det har vært den store flyktningestrømmen til Europa. ODIN Eiendom i 2015 2015 ble nok et godt år for ODIN Eiendom. Avkastningen for året målt i NOK ble 28.3%. Av disse skyldes rundt 8% fordelaktige valutabevegelser da NOK svekket seg mot SEK og EUR gjennom året. Vi leter etter følgende når vi investerer: De største bidragsyterene til avkastningen har vært Balder, Sagax og Wihlborgs. 3. Verdiskapningen i selskapene har primært vært drevet av leieprisøkninger, ferdigstilte utviklingsprosjekter, fallende ledighet, oppkjøp og lavere finanskostnader. 1. 2. 4. Stabil og økende inntjening per aksje En fornuftig belåning, både i forhold til inntjening, kontantstrøm og eiendomsverdier En fornuftig sammensetning av leietakere • De skal være solide • Vi foretrekker lang løpetid på kontraktene, men noe utskifting er likevel viktig for markedsjustering av leienivåene En portefølje av eiendommer som ikke risikerer å bli stående tomme etter kontrakts utløp En ledelse som er opptatt av å skape verdier gjennom å utvikle eiendommene En lav pris på aksjen i forhold til inntjening, kontantstrøm og risiko . De lave rentene har også i 2015 bidratt til at fallende avkastningskrav og økt verdi på eiendommene. Dog har aksjekursene på børsnotert eiendom kun fulgt inntjeningsveksten, og i så måte har ikke aksjemarkedet tatt de lavere rentene innover seg. 5. ODIN Eiendom hadde ved årsskiftet 74% av porteføljen investert i svenske papirer, mens henholdsvis 9% og 9% var investert i Norge og Finland. Selv om mandatet til ODIN Eiendom også inkluderer entreprenører og rene eiendomsutviklere, har vi besluttet og ikke å investere i disse, men kun fokusere på eiendomsbesitterene. Bakgrunnen for dette er hovedsakelig at vi oppfatter risikoen som lavere her, samtidig som prisingen fortsatt er attraktiv, og dagens rentescenario er fordelaktig. Gjennom året har de største endringene i fondet vært kjøp av aksjer i Balder, Sagax, Victoria Park og Hemfosa, mens vi har solgt aksjer i Norwegian Property, Citycon, Sponda, Castellum og Olav Thon. 6. ODIN Eiendom i 2015 ODIN Eiendom har som mål å gi en konkurransedyktig avkastning relativt til risikoen i selskapene vi investerer i. Generelle svingninger på børsen vil påvirke prisingen av porteføljen, men slik vi oppfatter det, er ofte disse svingningene vesentlig større enn hva verdien av porteføljen svinger. I slike tilfeller forsøker vi å utnytte svingninger til å rebalansere porteføljen. Sterkt eiendomsmarked i 2015 Markedet for næringseiendom i Norden har vært sterkt også i 2015. Transaksjonsverdien er nesten på nivå med toppårene 2006 og 2007. Veksten i volumet fra 2014 til 2015 er drevet av det norske markedet. Det er spesielt Citycon sitt kjøp av kjøpesenterene til Sektor Gruppen som forklarer veksten. I følge Newsec har yieldene falt videre i de fleste store byene i Norden i 2015. Samtidig er utsiktene for leieprisoppgang positive både i kontor- og og kjøpesentermarkedet i årene fremover. Fortsatt lave renter Lange renter er fortsatt lave i historisk målestokk. I Sverige og i Eurosonen har det var stabilt lave renter gjennom 2015, mens i Norge har nivået falt ytterligere. Lave renter er positivt for eiendom både fordi selskapene får lavere finansieringskostnader, og fordi da verdsettelsen av slike aktiva blir høyere. Med stadig lavere oljepris, har norsk økonomi fått større utfordringer. GDP veksten er ventet å være lavere enn i 2014, mens inflasjonen trolig kommer opp på bakgrunn av svekket valuta. Arbeidsledigheten er også ventet å stige. I Sverige er utsiktene langt lysere. GDP veksten er ventet å bli over 3% i 2016, høyeste siden 2010. Privat konsum er også ventet å utvikle seg positivt. Finsk økonomi har allerede vært svak i flere år, og selv om det er ventet noe forbedring, er det fortsatt til et lavt nivå. ODIN Eiendom i 2016 Utsiktene for eiendomsmarkedet i 2016 er også positive. De vedvarende lave rentene vil bidra til fortsatt sterkt transaksjonsvolum i tiden fremover. I tillegg tror vi god vekst i svensk økonomi vil gi seg utslag i økt etterspørsel etter eiendom i de fleste segmenter. Utsiktene i Norge og Finland er mer utfordrende. Vekst i tilbudssiden i eiendomsmarkedet i Norden er relativt begrenset. Newsec forventer 0-2% vekst i bygging av kontorlokaler i hovedstedene. I sum tror vi at tilbud og etterspørsel-balansen vil gi god verdivekst i eiendomsmarkedet gjennom lavere ledighet og økte leienivåer. Vi forblir dermed positive til utviklingen av nordisk børsnotert eiendom også i 2016. ODIN Eiendom i 2016 Vi tror at de selskapene som klarer å vise høyest vekst, kombinert med god avkastning på egenkapitalen, kombinert med moderat finansiell risiko, over tid vil være vinnere. Balder, Sagax og Wihlborgs scorer best på disse kriteriene, og er også de største posisjonene i fondet. Vi har også en betydelig andel av fondet investert i Hemfosa, som vi tror vi vise lignende egenskaper, dog har selskapet begrenset historikk da børsnotering fant sted for under to år siden. Nøkkeltall og nyheter fra porteføljen - presentert på engelsk Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (NOK) ODIN Eiendom C Index Historical Return % (NOK)* Last Month YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y 10 Y Since inception Portfolio 6,27 28,25 28,25 29,27 17,20 13,43 17,22 Benchmark 8,30 37,98 37,98 34,35 18,78 12,81 14,60 -2,03 -9,73 -9,73 -5,07 -1,58 0,62 2,62 Exess Return * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized Annual returns last 10 years Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* Hemfosa Fastigheter AB 9,5% Sweden Fastighets Balder AB Class B 9,4% Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB P/B ROE Real Estate Management & 11,0 12,3 4,8 5,0 1,2 11,2 Sweden Real Estate Management & 23,0 20,7 0,0 0,0 1,8 8,0 9,1% Sweden Real Estate Management & 13,7 14,7 3,0 3,1 1,6 11,8 AB Sagax Class B 9,0% Sweden Real Estate Management & 19,8 16,3 1,4 1,7 2,5 12,5 Wallenstam AB Class B 4,6% Sweden Real Estate Management & 35,8 36,0 1,8 2,1 1,5 4,3 Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B 4,6% Sweden Real Estate Management & 19,6 18,6 2,7 2,9 1,4 6,9 Sponda Oyj 4,5% Finland Real Estate Management & 10,9 11,2 4,8 5,1 0,8 6,9 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap 4,5% Norway Real Estate Management & 14,8 13,6 1,3 1,4 0,9 6,2 Fabege AB 4,5% Sweden Real Estate Management & 33,1 27,0 2,4 2,5 1,5 4,5 Technopolis Oyj 4,4% Finland Real Estate Management & 8,5 8,4 4,2 4,2 0,7 8,7 Topp 10 63,9% 15,5 15,3 2,5 2,7 1,3 8,5 16,1 15,2 2,7 3,0 1,4 8,4 ODIN Eiendom * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) Current holdings Share price performance*, year to date (Sorted by weight in portfolio) *) Share price performance for equities included in the benchmark. Equities not included in the benchmark are calculated from portfolio figures. Contribution, year to date Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years Portfolio Index Active share 0,50 Sharpe ratio 1) 2,09 2,10 13,34 15,87 Standard Deviation 2) Portfolio Alpha 1,46 Beta 0,80 Tracking error 4,93 Information ratio -1,09 1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate. 2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility. Pricing - Global Equities (MSCI World) OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast ODIN Eiendom - 31/12/2015 Security (Company) Currency Market Number of Market price shares Cost price Market value Unrealised gain (loss) Atrium Ljungberg AB ser. B SEK Stockholm 298 706 Balder B SEK Stockholm Castellum SEK Diös Fastigheter % of assets under management Local currency NOK 1000 NOK 1000 NOK 1000 131,70 31 591 41 177 9 585 4,5 390 388 209,00 39 710 85 401 45 692 9,3 Stockholm 311 934 120,70 33 075 39 409 6 334 4,3 SEK Stockholm 602 991 61,25 26 549 38 658 12 109 4,2 Entra NOK Oslo 535 503 71,25 39 403 38 155 -1 248 4,2 Fabege SEK Stockholm 277 324 140,10 20 702 40 668 19 966 4,4 Hemfosa Fastigheter SEK Stockholm 877 025 94,25 66 344 86 520 20 176 9,4 Hufvudstaden A SEK Stockholm 319 655 120,50 27 160 40 317 13 157 4,4 Klövern Pref SEK Stockholm 131 329 281,50 41 808 38 696 -3 113 4,2 Kungsleden SEK Stockholm 627 404 60,75 30 449 39 895 9 446 4,3 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap NOK Oslo 287 733 142,00 34 893 40 858 5 965 4,5 Sagax B SEK Stockholm 1 090 826 69,75 54 452 79 638 25 186 8,7 Sponda EUR Helsinki 1 089 390 3,94 34 901 41 330 6 429 4,5 Technopolis EUR Helsinki 1 128 737 3,73 37 312 40 540 3 229 4,4 Victoria Park B SEK Stockholm 1 052 786 15,10 14 009 16 639 2 631 1,8 Wallenstam B SEK Stockholm 587 212 68,40 42 153 42 041 -112 4,6 Wihlborgs SEK Stockholm 461 662 171,00 54 819 82 631 27 812 9,0 Total Financials 629 329 832 572 203 243 90,7 Total portfolio 629 329 832 572 203 243 90,7 Investments - ODIN Eiendom Atrium Ljungberg Performance - last 5 years 200 180 Company description: 160 Atrium Ljungberg is one of Sweden’s largest listed property companies. The focus is on owning, developing and managing properties, principally in the retail and office sectors. The ambition is to develop areas into full-service environments which are sustainable and attractive in the longer term. The company has around 1.1m square meters, of which around half is retail exposure 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B Why invested? Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B We like the company’s focus on being invested in all property segments in growth areas such as Uppsala. The company creates value both through having a larger overall property market share in its key areas, but also through extensive building activity. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Real Estate Development 16,708 11,903 28,611 Price 129.30 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 1,623 916 2,018 905 1,836 1,031 2,364 1,108 2,313 645 2,107 1,344 1,925 2,146 1,387 812 21.8 1.3 10.5 1.8 9.8 1.0 9.7 3.3 14.5 1.2 10.4 3.0 8.0 1.1 10.4 3.2 24.1 1.4 5.7 2.7 18.9 1.3 22.3 6.9 2.8 18.0 1.3 22.4 7.1 3.0 Balder Performance - last 5 years 800 Company description: Fastighets AB Balder is a listed property company which shall meet the needs of different customer groups for premises and housing based on local support. Balder's real estate holdings are valued at SEK 39.9 billion at the end of September 2015 and are marketed through the Din Bostad and Balder brands. The company has around 2.1m square meters, of which around half is residental exposure 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 Fastighets Balder AB Class B Why invested? Fastighets Balder AB Class B We like the company’s exceptional growth and opportunistic strategy. The residental market is very positive at the moment as building activity is too low to offset population growth. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preferance shares. Balder does not pay dividend, but as long as the company continue to invest in profitable growth, this is not a worry for us. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.13 des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Real Estate Development 32,697 21,922 54,619 Price 195.30 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 1,379 1,338 1,536 812 1,715 1,162 1,944 1,738 2,600 3,128 2,705 2,224 2,746 5,259 3,204 1,474 5.0 1.1 33.6 0.0 4.4 0.6 14.3 0.0 5.7 0.8 15.5 0.0 6.7 1.1 17.8 0.0 8.8 1.4 24.6 0.0 21.7 1.7 30.5 8.0 0.0 19.5 1.5 22.7 7.5 0.0 Castellum Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Castellums operations are concentrated to the attractive growth markets of Stockholm, Göteborg, Mälardalen, Östra Götaland and the Öresund region. The company grow along with the requirements of both new and existing customers and we actively participate in the development of cities and city neighbourhoods. The company has around 3.5m square meters, of which the majority is office properties 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Castellum AB des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Castellum AB Why invested? We like the company’s value creation through building and acquiring properties with high vacancy, and utilizing its large customer base to enhance value. The company has medium financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.15 Real Estate Development 20,520 18,399 38,919 Price 119.30 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2,760 1,964 2,919 711 3,073 1,473 3,253 1,707 3,321 1,211 3,295 2,116 1,902 3,431 2,209 1,518 12.7 1.5 18.9 3.8 8.5 1.2 6.4 4.2 21.4 1.3 12.7 4.0 7.6 1.3 13.6 3.9 18.6 1.5 9.0 3.5 13.2 1.3 19.6 10.1 4.0 12.6 1.3 18.8 10.2 4.3 Diös Fastigheter Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Diös has real estate holdings with a value of SEK 12 billion, making it northern Sweden's largest private real estate company. We operate in a stable market from Borlänge in the south to Luleå in the north. Its portfolio contains a diverse collection of properties in terms of price range and type, which allows Diös to be flexible to the clients' needs. The company has around 1.5m square meters, which is diversified through most property segments. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Dioes Fastigheter AB des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Dioes Fastigheter AB Why invested? We like the company’s growth and strong market position in the northern part of Sweden. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, although it has been reduced to a more moderate level than earlier. In addition, the company pays a very competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) des.15 Real Estate Development 4,558 7,592 12,150 Price 61.00 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) 499 230 601 182 1,331 428 1,310 323 1,313 297 1,311 712 391 1,404 769 463 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) 14.0 1.1 17.2 3.1 3.9 0.7 8.6 6.0 9.6 0.9 14.7 3.1 7.0 1.1 10.2 5.0 17.2 1.3 9.0 4.0 10.3 1.3 18.1 12.5 5.2 8.2 1.2 16.5 14.8 5.5 Entra Performance - last 5 years 110 Company description: 105 Entra is one of Norway's leading real estate companies. The company is an industry leader in developing and managing energy efficient buildings. The portfolio consists of flexible and environmentally friendly, high-quality office buildings in central locations close to public transportation hubs. The company has around 1.2m square meters, of which the majority are office related. 100 95 90 85 80 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Entra ASA des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Entra ASA Why invested? We like the company’s long contracts with public tenants. This provides a higher visibility than most other real estate companies. We also believe there is earnings upside through cutting cost further. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.15 Real Estate Development 13,229 14,449 27,677 Price 72.00 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) NOK NOK 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 1,510 735 1,468 565 1,533 704 1,684 453 2,018 1,027 1,758 1,437 2,098 1,844 1,489 759 11.1 - 8.0 - 9.3 - 5.8 - 13.5 1.7 11.0 0.0 17.1 1.1 18.3 6.2 4.2 13.8 1.0 18.0 7.5 4.6 Fabege Performance - last 5 years 300 Company description: 250 Fabege is a leading, listed property company with a principal focus on the development and management of proprietary properties in the Stockholm region. The property portfolio comprises 80 commercial properties and Fabege offers modern premises, mainly for use as offices but also for retail and other purposes. The company has around 1.1m square meters, of which the majority is office related. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Fabege AB des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Fabege AB Why invested? We like the company’s strong focus on the Stockholm region, and focus on growth areas such as Solna. We also like the company’s value creation through expanding the portfolio through building activities. The company has medium financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a moderate dividend. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) des.15 Real Estate Development 92,969 19,494 112,463 Price 1056.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 2,014 - 1,818 - 2,089 - 2,112 - 1,998 1,361 2,196 1,517 Net Income (mill.) 1,697 1,141 1,893 88 1,530 1,738 2,192 703 9.8 1.2 16.0 1.8 6.6 0.8 9.9 5.6 1.0 -0.8 4.6 6.1 1.0 12.8 3.9 18.4 1.3 13.2 3.0 31.9 1.5 32.1 4.6 2.4 26.6 1.5 29.4 5.5 2.6 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 Hemfosa Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Hemfosa Fastigheter is a Swedish property company active in two principal areas of operation. Firstly, long-term management and development of primarily community service properties and, secondly, transaction of properties. Our approach enables the company to create a balanced property portfolio that generates stable and high yields, thus enabling it to develop and add value to even more properties.The company has around 2.5m square meters, of which the majority is office related. Why invested? We like the company’s high growth, focus on long contracts with public tenants and transactin focus. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preferance shares. In addition, the company pays a very competitive dividend. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Hemfosa Fastigheter AB des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Hemfosa Fastigheter AB Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) des.15 Real Estate Development 10,778 15,166 25,944 Price 82.00 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 #N/A 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) - 1,297 667 1,594 923 1,584 231 1,683 964 2,440 1,698 1,851 2,539 1,671 1,034 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) - - 53.8 - 10.2 - 28.0 1.6 17.4 0.0 9.8 1.1 16.7 11.2 5.4 10.9 1.1 17.2 9.7 5.7 Hufvudstaden Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Hufvudstaden provides office and retailing premises in prime locations in Stockholm and Gothenburg. The Company was founded in 1915 and is today one of Sweden's largest listed property companies and one of the strongest brands in the country in the property sector. The company has around 400k square meters, of which all is office and retail. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 Hufvudstaden AB Class A Why invested? Hufvudstaden AB Class A We like the company’s prime property portfolio. Hufuvdstaden has properties in very attractive locations in Stockholm and Gothenburg, including the NK shopping centers in both cities. This provides lower risk, but one can also experience higher volatility in general rent levels. The company has very low financial gearing compared to the sector average, In addition, the company pays a moderate dividend. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.13 des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Real Estate Development 25,764 5,176 30,939 Price 118.60 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 1,392 1,733 1,437 1,435 1,542 1,939 1,640 1,876 1,669 2,001 1,595 1,118 2,063 1,624 1,160 816 19.9 1.5 15.9 1.9 7.5 1.2 12.0 3.3 13.9 1.3 14.7 3.0 8.0 1.2 12.9 3.0 11.7 1.3 12.5 2.7 27.8 1.3 27.7 4.9 2.6 27.5 1.3 26.5 4.8 2.7 Klövern Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Klövern is a real estate company committed, with closeness and commitment, to offering customers efficient premises in selected growth regions. Our vision is to create environments for future enterprise. This requires active construction of city neighbourhoods, districts and other business clusters. The company has around 2.8m square meters, of which more than half is office related. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 Klovern AB des.13 des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Klovern AB Why invested? We like the company’s high growth, but we are not comfortable with the high financial leverage, which is among the highest in the real estate sector. We have therefore invested in the preferance shares, which gives a very comptitive dividend and significantly lower risk than the ordinary shares. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.15 Real Estate Development 12,865 18,584 31,449 Price 8.90 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 1,244 605 1,364 465 1,948 339 2,228 808 2,525 1,164 2,715 1,684 1,789 2,892 1,793 913 13.6 1.3 14.0 3.7 7.1 0.9 10.1 5.8 9.1 0.7 5.9 4.9 11.7 0.7 11.6 5.3 0.8 0.1 13.5 36.6 11.5 0.7 20.1 6.5 3.9 10.2 0.7 18.8 7.2 4.5 Kungsleden Performance - last 5 years 200 180 Company description: 160 Kungsleden is one of Sweden’s largest listed property companies focusing on long-term ownership, active management, improving and developing commercial properties in chosen growth regions. The cluster strategy, means that owning several properties within a defined area. The company has around 2.6m square meters, of which virtually all is office and logistics. 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Kungsleden AB Why invested? Kungsleden AB We like the company’s new strategy, which is much more focused on large property market share in defined growing areas. The company has moderate financial gearing compared to the sector average, even after loosing recent tax case. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Real Estate Development 11,284 9,875 21,159 Price 62.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2,321 - 2,882 - 2,110 - 2,242 - 2,247 1,386 2,550 1,590 Net Income (mill.) 841 638 352 862 2,200 659 1,417 916 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) 38.4 1.2 11.7 4.3 7.4 0.8 8.5 4.3 0.7 4.6 7.3 3.7 0.7 10.7 2.3 11.5 1.1 -7.5 2.1 14.0 1.1 19.9 7.6 3.3 11.6 1.0 17.3 8.7 4.4 Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap was founded in 1982 and listed in 1983. Focus has all the way been on shopping centers in Norway, but last year the company also expanded into Sweden. The company has around 1.5m square meters, of which most is retail, but also some office. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? We like the excellent historic growth and strong return on investments. Although shopping centers face a challenging trend as online shopping is continuing to gain momentum. Through the financial crisis retail sales shown a resilient trend, hence, we are not too concerned with less optimistic outlook for Norwegian economy. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average. Dividend is quite low, but we are not concerned with this as cash flows are reinvested with healthy returns. Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Real Estate Development 15,062 16,364 31,426 Price 141.50 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) NOK NOK 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2,647 1,324 2,834 724 2,946 1,119 3,055 1,648 3,020 1,170 3,175 2,036 2,727 3,287 2,075 1,194 11.0 1.1 15.0 0.9 6.7 0.9 7.4 1.3 14.6 0.9 10.5 1.1 5.9 0.9 13.6 1.1 11.5 1.0 8.7 1.1 14.7 0.9 14.7 6.2 1.3 13.5 0.9 14.2 6.3 1.4 Sagax Performance - last 5 years 400 Company description: Sagax is a property company whose business concept is to invest in commercial properties, primarily in the warehouse and light industry segment. The company has around 1.8m square meters, of which more or less all is in the warehouse/logistic segment. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 AB Sagax Class B des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? We like the company’s high growth, which has been among the best in the sector. Sagax also have long lease contracts providing good earnings visibility. Management has a great track-record, and has generated large values for many years. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preference shares, but as this has been reduced lately, the company has also started to pay a small dividend. AB Sagax Class B Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Real Estate Development 13,066 8,380 21,446 Price 70.25 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) 669 492 789 122 826 372 929 777 1,098 747 1,284 1,041 1,058 1,414 1,164 831 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) 27.4 - 5.5 - 14.8 - 1.1 23.8 1.8 16.4 1.7 18.1 1.3 19.9 2.5 22.1 12.5 1.4 16.4 2.2 19.6 13.3 1.7 Sponda Performance - last 5 years 200 180 Company description: Sponda is a finnish property company established in 1991 by the Bank of Finland to take over the Finnish and foreign real estate properties held by the Skopbank Group together with its sizeable equity portfolio. The company has around 1.2m square meters, spread across several segments, but with office as the largest part. 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Sponda Oyj des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? Sponda Oyj Sponda has been going through a transformation, which has lasted several years already, where the goal is to be more focused on prime offices in and around Helsinki. As such, the Russian and logistics assets has to some extent been divested, although Sponda is not yet completed with the process. The company has moderate financial gearing compared to the sector average, even after loosing recent tax case. In addition, the company pays a very competitive dividend. . Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Real Estate Development 1,076 1,805 2,881 Price 3.80 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) EUR EUR 9.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) 232 121 249 109 265 106 265 95 252 69 230 150 100 238 150 95 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) 16.2 0.9 10.4 3.1 7.1 0.7 9.3 4.8 10.0 0.8 9.0 4.4 9.5 0.8 7.6 5.0 9.8 0.7 5.2 5.0 10.6 0.7 17.7 6.9 5.0 10.9 0.7 17.8 6.5 5.2 Technopolis Performance - last 5 years 200 180 Company description: Technopolis provides the best addresses for companies to operate and succeed in five countries in the Nordic-Baltic region. The company develops, owns and operates a chain of 20 smart business parks that combine services with flexible and modern office space. The company has around 730m square meters, which is mostly business parks. 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Technopolis Oyj des.14 des.15 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? Technopolis Oyj The company has shown strong growth the last years. However, several equity issues have diluted shareholders, resulting is flat development in results on a per share basis. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, but has been able to pay a competitive dividend. The share trades at a very low valuation, but we believe management needs to improve track record to achieve a higher pricing of the shares. . Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Real Estate Development 387 868 1,254 Price 3.63 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 83 - 94 - 107 - 127 - 169 87 169 89 Net Income (mill.) 23 47 26 26 166 16 42 51 16.3 0.9 8.3 3.7 4.7 0.7 14.9 5.1 9.0 0.8 7.3 5.1 17.9 0.8 5.9 4.1 11.9 0.8 -3.5 2.7 8.1 0.7 14.1 8.9 4.4 8.1 0.7 13.9 8.5 4.4 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) EUR EUR 9.50 Victoria Park Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Victoria Park is a listed property company on the NASDAQ Stockholm Mid Cap focuses on residential properties, with the business areas of investment properties and lifestyle accommodation. With a longterm management of work and social responsibility for safer living Victoria Park create and process values in a growing residential property portfolio in growth areas in Sweden. The company has 708k square meters, purely residental. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 Victoria Park AB Class B des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Victoria Park AB Class B Why invested? The company has shown strong growth the last years. The residental market is very positive at the moment as building activity is too low to offset population growth. Victoria Park generates values also through refurbishing of apartments, yielding excellent returns. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preference shares. . Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) des.15 Real Estate Development 3,615 3,826 7,441 Price 14.90 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 26 23 247 - 130 - 299 - 621 273 755 339 Net Income (mill.) 133 22 60 410 310 1,068 375 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) -6.6 - -18.9 - 42.3 - 76.3 - 0.9 25.4 0.0 25.9 1.3 26.7 4.9 1.0 19.2 1.1 22.4 5.9 1.4 Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 Wallenstam Performance - last 5 years 300 Company description: 250 Wallenstam is a company that does more than just manage buildings. We work in close collaboration with cities to create safe, secure places and neighbourhoods that people love to live in, work in and visit. Wallenstam builds, develops and manages properties, mainly in Stockholm and Gothenburg. The company has around 1m square meters across several segments, of which residental is the largest part. 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 Wallenstam AB Class B des.13 des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Wallenstam AB Class B Why invested? The company has shown strong growth the last years. The residental market is very positive at the moment as building activity is too low to offset population growth. In addition Wallenstam has an interesting position within generation and trading of renewable energy. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average, and pays a small dividend. . Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.15 Real Estate Development 20,881 14,997 35,878 Price 68.35 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 1,496 1,572 1,600 736 1,768 1,927 1,755 1,277 2,918 585 1,123 1,061 2,287 1,232 1,030 682 7.8 1.1 17.2 1.8 11.7 1.1 7.3 1.8 11.0 1.3 17.4 1.5 8.0 1.3 10.3 1.3 39.3 1.7 4.5 1.0 36.3 1.6 36.2 4.3 1.8 36.5 1.5 38.1 4.1 2.0 Wihlborgs Performance - last 5 years 250 Company description: Wihlborgs' property portfolio consists of commerical properties in the Öresund region, located in Malmö, Helsingborg, Lund and Copenhagen. The property portfolio is constantly enhanced by acquisition, development and sale of properties. Since 2005 the Company has grown from 197 properties with a market value of 7.9 billion to 270 properties with a value of 26.7 billion as per 30 September 2015. The company has around 1.6m square meters, of which the vast majority is office and retail Why invested? We like the growth Wihlborgs has generated through acquisitions and development of properties in the challenging Scania region. Management has a strong track record which we expec to continue. The company has financial gearing a little bit above sector average, but pays a competive dividend. . 200 150 100 50 0 des.10 des.11 des.12 Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB des.13 des.14 OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB Market Value (mill.) Net debt (mill.) Enterprise Value (mill.) Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) des.15 Real Estate Development 12,835 14,077 26,912 Price 167.00 Price currency Reporting currency FX rate (NOK) SEK SEK 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 1,297 922 1,458 665 1,654 823 1,913 1,063 2,124 395 1,951 1,396 1,517 2,021 1,439 790 10.5 1.5 19.2 3.5 8.2 1.3 12.3 3.8 12.9 1.4 14.0 3.7 7.0 1.3 16.3 3.5 30.4 1.6 5.7 3.0 13.5 1.6 20.2 11.8 3.0 14.4 1.5 19.5 10.5 3.1 ODIN Eiendom - 31/12/2015 Security (Company) Currency Market Number of Market price shares Cost price Market value Unrealised gain (loss) Atrium Ljungberg AB ser. B SEK Stockholm 298 706 Balder B SEK Stockholm Castellum SEK Diös Fastigheter % of assets under management Local currency NOK 1000 NOK 1000 NOK 1000 131,70 31 591 41 177 4 546 4,5 390 388 209,00 39 710 85 401 37 034 9,3 Stockholm 311 934 120,70 33 075 39 409 1 606 4,3 SEK Stockholm 602 991 61,25 26 549 38 658 6 924 4,2 Entra NOK Oslo 535 503 71,25 39 403 38 155 -1 248 4,2 Fabege SEK Stockholm 277 324 140,10 20 702 40 668 14 429 4,4 Hemfosa Fastigheter SEK Stockholm 877 025 94,25 66 344 86 520 13 624 9,4 Hufvudstaden A SEK Stockholm 319 655 120,50 27 160 40 317 8 273 4,4 Klövern Pref SEK Stockholm 131 329 281,50 41 808 38 696 -6 621 4,2 Kungsleden SEK Stockholm 627 404 60,75 30 449 39 895 5 012 4,3 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap NOK Oslo 287 733 142,00 34 893 40 858 5 965 4,5 Sagax B SEK Stockholm 1 090 826 69,75 54 452 79 638 15 014 8,7 Sponda EUR Helsinki 1 089 390 3,94 34 901 41 330 1 473 4,5 Technopolis EUR Helsinki 1 128 737 3,73 37 312 40 540 -1 699 4,4 Victoria Park B SEK Stockholm 1 052 786 15,10 14 009 16 639 1 797 1,8 Wallenstam B SEK Stockholm 587 212 68,40 42 153 42 041 -1 214 4,6 Wihlborgs SEK Stockholm 461 662 171,00 54 819 82 631 17 126 9,0 Total Financials 629 329 832 572 122 039 90,7 Total portfolio 629 329 832 572 122 039 90,7 Investment Objective Long term value creation Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price Om ODIN Eiendom C På vegne av våre kunder, er ODIN en aktiv og ansvarsfull forvalter med fokus på langsiktig verdiskaping. ODIN Eiendom er et aksjefond som investerer i næringseiendom i det nordiske markedet. Alle investeringer skjer i børsnoterte selskaper som eier ulike typer eiendom, som kontorer, hoteller, kjøpesentre og lager. Typisk for eiendomsselskaper er forutsigbar, stabil og god inntjening. Gjennom aksjefondet ODIN Eiendom kan også du ta del i verdiskapingen som skjer i det nordiske eiendomsmarkedet. ODIN Eiendom C er en andelsklasse av ODIN Eiendom. Klassen har en minstetegning på 3 000 kroner til 1 million kroner. Fakta om fondet Etableringsdato 24/08/2000 Referanseindeks Carnegie Sweden Real Estate Basisvaluta NOK Forvaltningshonorar 2.00% Tegn./innløsningsgebyr 0.00% Minste tegningsbeløp 3,000 NOK Om forvalter Vi minner om... Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning, som blant annet vil avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. Uttalelser i denne rapporten reflekterer ODINs markedssyn på det tidspunktet den ble utarbeidet. Vi har gjengitt kilder som vurderes som pålitelige, men vi kan imidlertid ikke garantere at informasjonen fra kildene hverken er presis eller komplett. Ansatte i ODIN Forvaltning AS kan handle for egen regning i flere typer finansielle instrumenter. Dette innebærer at ansatte i ODIN Forvaltning AS kan eie verdipapirer i selskaper som er omtalt i denne rapporten, samt andeler i ODINs verdipapirfond. Ansattes egenhandel skal skje i henhold til ODIN Forvaltning AS interne retningslinjer for ansattes egenhandel, som er utarbeidet i henhold til verdipapirhandelloven og Verdipapirfondenes forenings bransjestandard. Du finner mer informasjon på www.odinfond.no
© Copyright 2024