Bergsåker 05.03.2016
Bergsåker har et 200 m. langt opløb, og 39 % af
løbene vindes af spidshesten. Det skulle komme
sne både fredag og lørdag morgen over banen, så
selvom skopåbuddet er ophævet, skal man nok
ikke regne med, at ret mange heste kommer til at
køre uden sko.
V75 1:
4 Hero Sjöhammer har været uheldig med
sporene på det seneste, og spor 4 i volte er heller
ikke helt optimalt at vende rundt fra. Adielsson er
dog en mester i voltestart, og jeg sætter min lid
til at han får den fejlfrit af sted. Distancen er intet
problem for favoritten, og formen er fin.
Hjemmebanehesten 2 Above All Ås har et godt
spor, og er rimelig hurtig fra start. Senest
afsluttede den i 11,5 fart de sidste 1000 m., så
formen er på top. Håbet er at den kan tage spids,
og derfra føre helt til mål. – Den vinder dog ikke
ret mange løb, så jeg sætter endnu en hest på. 3
Tequila Palema er godt nok en hoppe, men den
er god på den lange distance, og både spor og
form fejler ikke noget.
V75 2:
Dagens sværeste løb, hvor mine udvalgte
forhåbentlig er tilstrækkelige til at gå videre. 3
Just Happy var lidt af et staldskrig senest på V75,
men hesten galopperede da, som så ofte før. Jeg
stoler ikke på den, men da den i fejlfri tilstand
formodentlig er spidshest, kan jeg ikke gå
udenom. Favoritten 7 Ladyofthelake var god i
sidste løb, og trods en tung bane afsluttede den i
11,5 fart de sidste 800 m. Sporet nu er ikke ret
godt, og husk også på at hesten ikke vandt et
eneste løb sidste år, hvis nu man går med
ugarderede tanker. 4 Nirvana Broline er i god
form, og har et godt spor. Jeg har ingen ide om
hvor den havner fra start, men hesten skal nok
ende med at være med helt fremme, hvilken den
også har gjort i 11 ud af dens 15 starter i
karrieren – en sikker pladshest. 10 Utac har været
med i nogle store løb, og kan vel på sin klasse
være med her, selvom formen måske ikke
ligefrem er gnistrende. Bedste spor til 5 Highland
Q. Sister, som skal med i kraft af sporet, og ikke
mindst hvis det skulle gå hen bliver en snebane,
hvilket den er god på.
V75 3:
Hverken spor, modstandere eller form er noget
der er til hindring for at 4 On Track Piraten ikke
skulle kunne vinde. Der er derfor intet statistisk
belæg for at prøve at gardere. Den bliver uden
tvivl kæmpefavorit, men jeg vil lede efter skrald i
de andre løb i stedet. Ugarderet på favoritten.
V75 4:
En kuskeforstærket 1 Åsakjappen ligner hesten
der kan føre dette fra start til mål. Sporet er det
bedst tænkelige, og med 20 m. forspring bliver
den ikke let at fange ind. På samme volte er
favoritten 5 Talls Odin, som måske er en
kommende koldblodskonge? Den har vundet
rigtig mange løb, men møder nu de hårdeste
modstandere hidtil. Ingen ved vel rigtig hvor god
den er, og den kan måske vise sig helt overlegen,
til trods for det halvdårlige startspor? På tillæg
har 12 Junifaks springspor, og med volte
specialist Erik op, kan det blive interessant.
Tidsmæssigt er den bedre end de to nævnte, men
har ikke vundet nær så mange løb som de.
Bergsåker 05.03.2016
V75 5:
V75 7:
10 Pascha Tilly virker til at være en dygtig hest,
men da den for det meste starter i Finland, er
både den og kusken en anelse ukendte. Bagspor
er aldrig godt, og som relativt stor favorit, synes
jeg den skal garderes. 4 Rico Leejs tror jeg tager
spids, og er den en smule forbedret fra sidste
start, så kan den måske holde hele vejen hjem. 9
Bottnas Commandeur havde et skidt spor sidst,
men leverede alligevel en fin afslutning. Spor 9 er
bedre end det spor 8 den havde senest, og det
kan måske give pote nu. 12 Antonio Tabac har
det dårligste spor, og det vil givetvis kræve en hel
del overpace at vinde herfra. Jeg synes nu hesten
ser så tilpas lovende ud, at jeg trods sporet
alligevel finder plads til den på kuponen. Kusken
der sidder bag, er bestemt også at regne som en
af de bedste i dette felt. 5 Coyote Roadrunner
har bedste spor, og kan måske på en god dag
snyde 4 Rico Leejs i spidskampen. Vinderchancen
er nok ikke ret stor, men forestiller man sig at
den får spids eller vinderhullet, så er det måske
alligevel ikke helt urealistisk med den drøm.
Bedste hest 10 Scellino Luis har bagspor, og på
sprint er det ikke helt enkelt at vinde herfra.
Kommer der lidt overpace, så har den altid en
giftig afslutning, og skal på ingen måde afskrives.
6 Mr Vox er spidsfavorit, og tilbage på sin bedste
distance. At den ikke kunne noget senest, tror jeg
beror mere på distancen, end på at den skulle
være i en formnedgang. Med en forventet bedre
indsats nu, bliver jeg ikke overrasket hvis det er
spids og slut. For to starter siden leverede 2
Premier Kronos en 10,0 afslutning de sidste 800
m., hvilket jeg håber på at den kan gentage her.
Sporet fejler ikke noget, om end den næppe
kommer til spids, så er den trods alt sikret en fin
position direkte i andetsporet.
V75 6:
Trods seks måneders pause, og spor 8 i comeback
løbet – så præsterede 4 Blue Star Champion
alligevel at vinde med imponerende 6,5 længder!
Den er hurtig fra start, og jeg synes meget taler
for en sejr her – lige bortset fra, at den
indimellem kan finde på at galoppere. Skulle
favoritten komme bort, så tror jeg 6 Sambucus
P.R. meget vel kan tage teten. Den galopperede
senest på V75, men havde inden da leveret tre
sejre på stribe, og jeg tror formen stadig sidder
der. Langskuddet i løbet bliver 7 Merry Broline,
som ikke er ret hårdt betroet. Sporet er ikke godt,
men hesten er kuskeforstærket med Örjan denne
gang. 7 Merry Broline har i fire ud af de sidste
fem løb, løbet på vinterbane, og alligevel
præsteret gode tider. 5 % synes jeg har en klar
spilleværdi, især hvis det bliver snebane igen.
Statistik Spillerens V75 forslag:
Stort forslag
Afd.
Heste nr.
1
2-3-4
2
3-4-5-7-10
3
4 On Track Piraten
4
1-5-12
5
4-5-9-10-12
6
4-6-7
7
2-6-10
I alt 1012,50 kr.
Res.
1-10
9-12
8-10
10-11
8-2
3-12
3-8
Lille forslag
Afd.
Heste nr.
1
2-3-4
2
3-4-7-10
3
4 On Track Piraten
4
1-5
5
4-9-10
6
4 Blue Star Champion
7
2-6-10
I alt 108 kr.
Res.
1-10
5-9
8-10
12-10
12-5
6-7
3-8
Bergsåker - Saturday, March 5
Race 1
Volt 2140
11 Staro Family has done well in monte and took a deserved victory in the last race.
Run in the front but is good from the back too. 6 Conrads Voldemort is back after a
long break and finished well to a second spot in the last race. Will soon take a victory
again. 8 Crooked has done well in two monte races lately and is in fine form. Knows
the jockey well. 1 Super Lux has done really well in a couple of races but the chances
are not easy to predict after a long pause. Likes to run in the front and this jockey is
gifted.
Race 2
Volt 2640
5 Tyron Power has shown very good skills for new trainer Mattias Djuse. Took a
comfortable win in the lead two races back and got locked in after a mistake against
tough opponents in the last V75 race. Good chance if he handles the start. 1 Mellby
Charmören has been improved for the new trainer and is more reliable than he used
to. Is strong and this long distance is an advantage. 3 Radjah d´Inverne is promising
and won comfortably in the lead in the last race. Tougher opponents now but should
be considered. 4 Hawerchuk did well behind our winner in the last race and has
been on the way up lately. Is strong and can do a bit by himself.
Race 3
Auto 2640
13 Tangen Loke is a top horse and has taken six wins in eight attempts. Finished
really fast in the last seasonal debut and set a new record. Should be outstanding
here. Banker despite this new distance. 5 Mjölner Tore did well in the last race in
Sweden and is possible without a mistake. 10 Faks Odin was second behind the
favourite in the seasonal debut two races back. Is really good every now and then. 12
Fräcke Vicke is consistent and good but has not competed this winter and the form
is a question mark.
Race 4
Volt 2140
3 Global Scenario got a defensive trip in the seasonal debut. Found room on the
final stretch and won easily. Should be even better now. Nice conditions here. Our
pick. 8 Sea of Heartbreak got an impossible journey in the last race. Good for this
class. Certainly better now. 13 Nuissance Face took a nice third spot in the seasonal
debut and is good for this class. 2 Zelda Gowan has been improved for the new
trainer. Was not empty from behind the leader in the last race.
Race 5, V75-1
Volt 2640
1 Digital Archive has shown fine form this winter and took a comfortable win in the
V75 two races back. This starting method is an advantage. Will get an offensive trip.
Was unlucky in the last V75 final. 4 Hero Sjöhammar took a good second spot in the
last V75 race despite a bad post. Quick starter. Likes to run in the front. 11 Catch the
Cash took a well deserved win in the last race. She can finish fast and will not be easy
to beat with the right trip from the back. 2 Above All Ås has taken two second spots
in the V75 lately and is on the way up. This long distance suits the horse well.
Rank
A: 11-6-8
B: 1-4-13-14-7-12-2-5-9
C: 3-15-10
Rank
A: 5
B: 1-3-4-7-14-6-9-8-11-12
C: 15-2-10-13
Rank
A: 13
B: 5-10-12-9-4-2-11-1-3-6
C: 14-15-7-8
Rank
A: 3-8
B: 13-2-7-6-4-9-15-14-12-1-11
C: 10-5
Rank
A: 1-4-11
B: 2-10-3-6-7-9-5
C: 12-8
Bergsåker - Saturday, March 5
Race 6, V75-2
Auto 2140
7 Ladyofthelake has started this year really well and she has been consistent and
good lately. She is strong and can do a bit by herself. Tougher opponents now but
our pick. 4 Nirvana Broline has a couple of races under her belt and is on the way
up. Had to run outside of the leader in the last race and got defeated on speed. 10
Utac is better than the last results show. Easier opponents this time but this post is a
big disadvantage. 12 Shelly Ann Frazer is strong and overpace would be a big
advantage.
Race 7, V75-3
Auto 2140
4 On Track Piraten has been competing in the Golden Division this winter and
should be outstanding here. He took a convincing win in the last race and faces
easier opponents this time. Banker. 8 Ed You beat our banker in the seasonal debut
in Gävle but has got a bad post this time and will not be able to reach the front. Main
challenger anyway. 10 Francais du Gull is in great shape as the whole Lindegren
stable. Took a good second spot behind the favourite in the last race. Early choice
again. 3 Labero Broline beat easier horses in the last race and looked nice.
Race 8, V75-4
Volt 2140
12 Junifaks is back in good shape again for the new trainer and comes from a nice
victory. He is very speedy with the right trip from the back. Erik Adielsson is
interesting. Could reach a good position directly. 10 Mjölner Komet has earlier done
well in the V75 in Sweden and is tough. He was not at his best in the last race in his
home country but faces perfect conditions moneywise here. 5 Talls Odin faces
tougher opponents this time. Has one race under his belt after a layoff. 1
Åsakjappen met Tekno Odin in the last race but is on the way up after a layoff. He
prefers to attack from the back.
Race 9, V75-5
Auto 2140
10 Pascha Tilly is promising. He took a convincing win in the seasonal debut on
Solvalla and has done really well after that in his home country. He is really good for
this class and can do a bit by himself. 9 Bottnas Commandeur finished well to a
third spot in the last V75 race and has taken some nice wins this winter. Will be
driven by Takter this time. 12 Antonio Tabac has been improved lately and has
taken two wins in a row in the front. Tougher this time but on the way up.
Race 10, V75-6
Auto 2140
1 Roger America finished well to a V75 win two races back and had developed a lot
for his new trainer. Broke directly in the V75 final but can open fast and likes to run in
the front. Our pick. 4 Blue Star Champion won directly for the new trainer in the last
race and looked really nice. He is good for this class and should be considered early.
6 Sambucus P.R. won the V75 from outside the leader two races back and broke in
the last V75 race on the way to a good result. On the way up. Should not be
underestimated. 3 Digital Winner faces quite tough conditions moneywise but has
shown great form lately and can open fast.
Rank
A: 7-4
B: 10-12-3-15-6-5-1-11-13-14
C: 9-2-8
Rank
A: 4
B: 8-10-3-1
C: 6-2-7-9
Rank
A: 12-10-5-1
B: 9-11-6-4-8-7-15-2-14-13
C: 3
Rank
A: 10
B: 9-12-8-4-3-2-5
C: 6-7-1-11
Rank
A: 1-4
B: 6-3-11-9-7-10-12
C: 8-2-5
Bergsåker - Saturday, March 5
Race 11, V75-7
Auto 1640
10 Scellino Luis was succesfull last year and is developing really well. Won the last
V75 final in the lead but is good from the back too. This distance suits him well. 8
Windy Ways did well but was not at her best in the last race. Is chasing revenge here
and should be followed. 6 Mr Vox prefers to run in the lead and this short distance is
perfect. 4 Västerbo PayMyDay also prefers to run in the lead. Showed fine form in
the last race and faces interesting conditions here.
Race 12
Volt 2140
Unexperienced three year old horses. 6 Ready for Money showed good skills as a
two year old and won in the front in the second race. Back after a winter break.
Perfect post. Could lead this from start to finish. 2 Lingbo Emeli did alright from
behind the leader in the debut. Quick starter and will get a nice trip. On the way up. 3
On Track Kangaroo has been on the way up too. Will be driven by Johnny Takter.
Interesting. 5 Rebecka Broline showed good skills as a two year old. Interesting
seasonal debut here. Will be driven by Ulf Ohlsson.
Rank
A: 10
B: 8-6-4-3-7-12-5-2-11-9
C: 1
Rank
A: 6
B: 2-3-5-4-1-7
C: