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Seasons of Premieres: Fall Broadcast and Summer Cable
Fall Broadcast
The new Fall Television Season is off with a bang! Top-rated favorites have returned and newcomers are already inspiring viewers.
Programs that deliver large audiences are a magnet for advertisers who need to quickly meet their reach and frequency goals and
broadcast television delivers more of these shows than any other medium.
Strength in Numbers (Even When Time-Shifted)
A week into the new primetime season, the biggest story that has emerged has been about the burgeoning time-shifted audience.
TVB took a special look at this phenomenon and put it in a perspective that positions the local broadcast industry for competitive
success. While cable original series bring a variety of quality and choice to an ever-fragmenting television audience, they fall short of
delivering viewers at scale. In fact, looking at the new 2012/13 broadcast television premieres, the same-day, time-shifted portion
of the audience to broadcast originals outpaced the average audience levels of cable’s brightest summer stars.
Broadcast’s Same-Day, Time-Shifted Audience Outshines Cable’s Original Stars
Fall 2012 Premiere Week v. Summer 2012 Cable Original Series
Primetime Live+SD A25-54 (000)
HATFIELDS & MCCOYS (HISTORY)
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
FALLING SKIES (TNT)
GREY'S ANATOMY (ABC)
SUITS (USA)
BURN NOTICE (USA)
NCIS (CBS)
DALLAS (TNT)
BREAKING BAD (AMC)
ROYAL PAINS (USA)
HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER (CBS)
SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES (CBS)
WHITE COLLAR (USA)
2 BROKE GIRLS (CBS)
COVERT AFFAIRS (USA)
NEW GIRL SPL (FOX)
PERCEPTION (TNT)
THE CLOSER (TNT)
SULLIVAN & SON (TBS)
MEN AT WORK (TBS)
VOICE-TUE (NBC)
ONCE UPON A TIME (ABC)
AMAZING RACE 21 (CBS)
MIKE & MOLLY (CBS)
REVENGE (ABC)
TWO AND A HALF MEN (CBS)
VOICE (NBC)
NEW GIRL (FOX)
THE MIDDLE (ABC)
NCIS: LOS ANGELES (CBS)
OFFICE (NBC)
X-FACTOR-WED (FOX)
2789
2542
5371
2295
5222
1936
1724
4335
1684
1683
1678
5050
1560
1553
1485
1485
3249
1438
3481
1371
1349
3891
1317
1302
1945
Cable Live+SD (000)
Broadcast - Same Day, Time Shifted (000)
Broadcast - Live Only (000)
1301
1257
1256
1248
1232
4900
1232
3821
1204
2927
1199
3591
1110
3307
1107
4409
1043
5176
941
2343
921
3340
905
4683
902
1799
894
0
3825
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Source: Nielsen Media Research. Primetime Live+SD. 05/24/12-09/02/12 (cable) v. 9/24/12 – 9/30/12 (broadcast).
www.tvb.org
8000
9000
Highlights of Broadcast Television’s first full week of the 2012/13 Season include:
 Nationally, Broadcast took 94 of the top 100 Adult 25-54 Prime programs in Week 1.
 NFL Football took the top 4 spots, with NBC Sunday Night Football #1 with a 9.8 A25-54 rating. Modern Family rounded out the
top 5 programs.
 Cable's highest-rated show, NFL Regular Season on ESPN, was #4 delivering a 7.0 RA25-54. Their second highest-rated show came
in at #31, NFL Regular Season on NFLN, delivering a 3.7 RA25-54.
National Primetime
National Weekly Top 10
Broadcast vs. Cable GRPs A25-54
Primetime RA 25-54
Top 100 Programs
Broadcast TV = 297.4 GRPs
Cable Nets = 19.9 GRPs
NBC Sunday Night Football
9.8
FOX NFL Sunday-National
9.4
Sunday Night NFL Pre-Kick
7.4
NFL Regular Season on ESPN
7.0
Modern Family
6.7
The Big Bang Theory
6.3
CBS NFL Single
6.1
FOX NFL Sunday-Regional
5.8
NCIS
5.7
NBC NFL Sunday Post Game
5.4
Source: The Nielsen Company, Live + Same Day estimates, Top 10 programs = programming 5 min. or more.
* S/O-S/O = Sign-On to Sign-Off.
As we get further into Broadcast’s 2012/13 Fall Season, TVB will be providing more in-depth analyses of network primetime
performance.
www.tvb.org
Summer Cable
The 2011/12 television season came to a close last month showing the Advertiser Supported Cable sector declining among
Households, Persons 2+ and A25-54. Admittedly, the Summer Olympic Games on NBC provided formidable competition (although
coverage was available on multiple cable networks as well), but the Games lasted only two weeks of the summer season and, in fact,
average ad- supported cable ratings were down for the regular season as well.
% Change in Average Primetime Impressions vs. Prior Year
Broadcast
Ad Supported Cable
5.3%
5.2%
3.3%
HH
P2+
-1.2%
A25-54
HH
P2+
A25-54
-1.6%
-2.6%
-3.5%
-3.4% -3.8%
-4.0%
-5.5% -5.9%
Regular Season
Summer Season
Source: Nielsen Media Research, Primetime Daypart Live+SD. 9/19/11 – 9/23/12 v. 9/20/10 – 9/18/11.
Cable Performance: New and Returning Series
Given that summer is Ad Supported Cable’s premiere season, TVB has taken a look at the relative strength of cable’s original
programming in the same way that broadcasters are typically analyzed – across new and returning series. For the broadest
appealing cable networks, returning series declined among Adults 25-54 versus last summer and new series often didn’t perform at
the same level as returning favorites. This helps to explain the declines that cable’s mature entertainment networks experienced
this summer.
Returning
Series
Summer 2011
A25-54 (000)
781
Returning
Series
Summer 2012
A25-54 (000)
771
Summer
Returning
Series
% YOY Change
-1%
2012
New Series
A25-54 (000)
691
New Series
Index to
Returning
Series
90
AMC
729
721
-1%
733
102
Discovery
686
624
-9%
545
87
History
1179
955
-19%
1229
129
Lifetime
778
748
-4%
405
54
TBS
657
620
-6%
764
123
TNT
1475
1279
-13%
1198
94
USA
1851
1431
-23%
767
54
Cable
Network
A&E
Source: Nielsen Media Research. Live+SD. 05/24/2012-09/23/2012 vs. 5/26/11-9/18/11. See appendix for complete list of programs analyzed.
www.tvb.org
Summer is Cable’s Premiere Season
Cable networks have moved swiftly over the past several years to introduce original series at a time when broadcast is presumed to
be primarily in repeats. Despite the ongoing summer rhetoric surrounding cable’s original season, broadcast television remains the
dominant choice for viewers. TVB looked at this year’s summer season for all primetime programming with and without sports and
found that across the Top 100 telecasts, broadcast programming delivered 94% of this summer’s primetime GRPs. High-rated
Summer Olympic programming took 18 of the Top 23 ranked programs of the summer, but was inconsequential in determining
broadcast’s dominant delivery. When all sports programming was excluded (including Olympic Games) from the Top 100 program
rankings, broadcast not only maintained its dominance but increased its share of GRPs to 96%.
Primetime A25-54 GRPs
Primetime A25-54 GRPs
Top 100 Programs (All Telecasts)
Top 100 Programs (Non-Sports)
Cable
28.5
6%
Cable
8.9
4%
Broadcast
240.6
96%
Broadcast
460
94%
Source: Nielsen Media Research, Primetime Live+SD. 05/24/12 – 09/02/12
We’ve seen many flavors of Top Cable Program rankers this summer touting the merits of cable’s originals – mostly benchmarked
against other cable offerings. Viewers, however, watch television, not categories of television distribution. So how did the 2012
cable season’s crop of originals perform in the context of the total television audience? The brightest light in the cable line-up came
th
from FX’s Sons of Anarchy (2.7 A25-54 Rtg) which squeaked into the Summer ranker at #69 with a September 11 debut. The only
other cable original to crack the Top 100 was History’s mini-series, Hatfields & McCoys (2.3 A25-54 Rtg). The Kevin Costner starrer
ranked at #89 among all telecasts. When we excluded sports programming from the ranker, these two cable stand-outs jumped to
rank #31 and #46, respectively.
For a better perspective on the strength of original cable series programming, we re-ranked the summer telecast list, limiting it to
only programs of six or more episodes and eliminating all sports content. TVB compared the performance of the Top 50 cable
originals this summer to broadcast series repeats. Looking at a frequency distribution of series and their rankings, it becomes clear
that summer broadcast repeats still outperform heavily marketed, new cable originals. Broadcast repeats predominantly ranked in
the Top 100, whereas cable originals predominantly occupied the bottom half of the Top 200.
www.tvb.org
Broadcast Repeats v. Cable Originals
# of Series Ranked Within Top 200 Programs
Summer Season 2012
12
10
8
6
4
Broadcast Repeats
181-200
161-180
141-160
121-140
101-120
81-100
61-80
41-60
21-40
0
1-20
2
Cable Originals
Source: Nielsen Media Research, Primetime Live+SD. 05/24/12 – 09/23/12. 6+ telecast qualifier, excludes sports. Note that Cable Originals include encore telecasts as
reported by Nielsen.
Cable Original Rankings
Below are the rankings for the Top 50 Cable Originals of the 2012 Summer Season. Among all telecasts, cable originals landed one
position in the Top 100, two positions in the Top 200, seven positions in the Top 300, 18 positions in the Top 400 and 32 positions in
th
th
the Top 500. On a total telecast basis, the 50 ranked cable original series placed 614 among all telecasts in the summer season.
www.tvb.org
Top 50 Cable Originals: Summer Primetime Season 2012 (Adults 25-54)
6+ Telecasts (excludes sports programming)
All Ad Supported Television
Rankings
A25-54
Cable
Rank
Original
#
A25-54
6+ T/C
Rank
Cable Program
Network
Telecasts
Rating
No Sports
1
Hatfields & McCoys
History
10
2.3
13
2
Falling Skies
TNT
9
1.6
42
3
Suits
USA
10
1.4
66
4
Burn Notice
USA
11
1.4
67
5
Dallas
TNT
10
1.3
78
6
Breaking Bad
AMC
8
1.3
79
7
Royal Pains
USA
14
1.2
82
8
White Collar
USA
10
1.1
90
9
Covert Affairs
USA
10
1.1
95
10
Perception
TNT
10
1.1
96
11
The Closer
TNT
12
1.0
98
12
Sullivan and Son
TBS
10
1.0
99
13
Men at Work
TBS
10
1.0
100
14
Army Wives
Lifetime
12
1.0
103
15
Swamp People
History
24
1.0
105
16
The Glades
A&E
10
1.0
107
17
Rizzoli & Isles
TNT
20
1.0
108
18
Franklin & Bash
TNT
10
1.0
109
19
Counting Cars
History
23
1.0
112
20
Major Crimes
TNT
11
0.9
114
21
After the Catch
Discovery
6
0.9
116
22
Drop Dead Diva
Lifetime
13
0.9
119
23
Mountain Men
History
21
0.9
123
24
Necessary Roughness
USA
11
0.9
124
25
Anger Management
FX
29
0.8
125
26
Pawn Stars
History
240
0.8
128
27
Leverage
TNT
12
0.8
129
28
Long Island Medium
TLC
12
0.8
132
29
Deadliest Catch
Discovery
25
0.8
134
30
Longmire
A&E
17
0.8
135
31
American Pickers
History
69
0.8
138
32
American Hoggers
A&E
12
0.8
139
33
Breaking Amish
TLC
7
0.8
140
34
Warehouse 13
Syfy
8
0.7
146
35
Storage Wars
A&E
270
0.7
147
36
American Restoration
History
18
0.7
149
37
Top Gear
History
7
0.7
150
38
American Chopper
Discovery
6
0.7
152
39
Sister Wives
TLC
15
0.7
153
40
Food Network Star
Food
14
0.7
154
41
Ice Road Truckers
History
33
0.7
155
42
For Better or Worse
TBS
26
0.7
156
43
Storage Wars Texas
A&E
34
0.7
158
44
Common Law
USA
10
0.7
160
45
Restaurant Stakeout
Food
7
0.7
161
46
Time Machine
History
25
0.7
162
47
Here Comes Honey Boo Boo
TLC
28
0.6
171
48
Hell on Wheels
AMC
10
0.6
172
49
Picked Off
History
7
0.6
173
50
Intervention
A&E
9
0.6
175
Source: Nielsen Media Research. Live+SD. 05/24/12-09/02/12. * Top 100 Ranked Programs (6 telecast minimum)
www.tvb.org
A25-54
Rank
All Telecasts
89
179
242
243
274
277
293
317
333
338
354
355
359
369
381
384
385
387
402
407
410
420
436
440
445
453
455
466
475
476
496
497
502
535
538
544
547
552
554
555
556
563
566
575
577
582
608
610
612
614
Primetime Still Belongs to Broadcast
Whether Summer or Fall, the top-rated shows in television are predominantly and consistently on broadcast. Ad Supported Cable
networks continue to expand original summer series offerings, and although viewers are sampling these new shows throughout the
summer, many returning cable series are declining year-to-year and only a handful of networks are introducing new series that
perform as strongly as returning favorites. Even when compared to broadcast repeats, highly marketed, cable original series have
difficulty breaking into the Top 100 telecast choices among viewers.
Now as the new primetime season gets underway, we have new evidence of how the height and hype of primetime cable pales in
comparison to the reality of broadcast television’s scale. The average audience of cable’s highest rated originals is barely equivalent
to the same-day, time-shifted audience of broadcast’s fall premieres.
TVB will continue to monitor the new primetime season and report on trends as they emerge.
www.tvb.org
APPENDIX - Cable Summer Originals (Live+SD)
Source: Nielsen Media Research. Live+SD. 05/24/2012-09/23/2012 vs. 5/26/11-9/18/11.
www.tvb.org