Macro Research 9. januar 2015 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus  Dagens altoverskyggende begivenhed bliver nok arbejdsmarkedsrapporten for december fra USA, som tegner til at blive endnu en god en af slagsen, men dog ikke ligeså god som i november, hvor beskæftigelsen steg med hele 321.000. Underindekset for beskæftigelsen i de to ISM-indeks er begge kun faldet en smule i forhold til november, og de ugentlige antal nytilmeldte ledige har udviklet sig ganske fornuftigt. ADP-indikatoren for den private den af beskæftigelsen gik frem i forhold til november, men ADP havde på den anden side slet ikke forudset den store fremgang i den faktiske beskæftigelse i november (se figur). Vi og konsensus venter en beskæftigelsesfremgang på henholdsvis 250.000 og 240.000. Ledighedsgraden er nok faldet endnu en måned til 5,7%, og nok så interessant bliver det, om timelønnen kan fastholde den højere vækstrate (0,4% m/m), vi så i november.  Fra Tyskland kommer industriproduktionen for november, hvor der ventes endnu en beskeden fremgang, hvilket er i overensstemmelse med den seneste stabilisering i PMI-fremstillingsindekset. Risikoen er på nedsiden efter gårsdagens svage fabriksordreindgang.  Danmarks Statistik kommer også med industriproduktionstal. Industrisektoren har siden foråret oplevet et massivt negativ omslag, indikeret af industriens konjunkturbarometer, der er faldet til niveauer ikke set siden krisen i 2008/2009. En fortsat lidt skuffende indenlandsk efterspørgsel kombineret med afmatningen i især euroområdet ser således ud til at veje på produktionen herhjemme. Virksomhederne vurderer at deres lagre er for store, som i kombination med en meget negativ udvikling i ordrebøgerne ikke er en god cocktail for industriproduktionen. Vi venter på den baggrund et fald i industriproduktionen i omegnen af 3,0% m/m i november. Baseret på de ledende indikatorer ventes produktionen at have pilen yderligere nedad de kommende måneder, og vil derfor fortsat trække ned i den samlede økonomiske aktivitet. Herudover får vi også tal for udenrigshandlen, hvor vi venter et fald i eksporten i november i omegnen af 1,5%. Det er dog primært brændselskomponenten der ventes at trække ned efter en kraftig stigning måneden før. Overordnet ser vi imidlertid ikke grobund for at vente et stærkere eksportopsving, idet væksten på flere af vores eksportmarkeder stadig er noget haltende. Modsat ventes importen at være steget lidt. Det vil medvirke til et fald i overskuddet på handelsbalancen fra 7,1 mia. kr. til ca. 6 mia. kr. i november. Overskuddet på betalingsbalancen ventes også at være faldet lidt fra 13,2 mia. kr. til 11,9 mia. kr. i november.  Også Sverige og Storbritannien offentliggør industriproduktionstal i dag, og Norge offentliggør inflationstal. USA: ADP forudså ikke stærk beskæftigelsesfremgang i sidste måned Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst  Markederne: Aktiemarkederne rettede sig markant i går efter store fald      først på ugen. Brent-olieprisen er kravlet tilbage op over 50 USD pr. tønde. Renterne er steget. EUR/USD nogenlunde fladt men JPY stærkere over for USD her til morgen. Kina: Inflationen steg til 1,5% y/y i december fra 1,4% i november. Det var på linje med konsensusestimatet. Udsving i det kinesiske forbrugerprisindeks er især drevet af fødevarepriserne og i mindre grad energipriserne, og det forklarer, hvorfor inflationen steg lidt trods de globale olieprisfald. USA: Antallet af nytilmedlte ledige for sidste uge faldt lidt til 294.000. Det påvirker ikke morgendagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport, som jo vedrører december måned. Euroområdet: EU-Kommissionens konjunkturbarometer, ESI, var 100,7 i december, uændret i forhold til det nedreviderede novembertal. Der var ventet en stigning i ESI, og det er da også lidt skuffende at tilliden ikke stieg trods lavere oliepris og svagere EUR. Til gengæld var der gode nyheder fra detailomsætningen, som med 0,6% m/m steg mere end ventet i november (konsensus 0,4 % m/m) og mere end i oktober (0,2% m/m). Tyskland: Fabriksordreindgangen faldt med 2,4% m/m i november, hvilket var et større fald end ventet. Oktobers i forvejen store stigning blev dog oprevideret. Novemberfaldet er dårligt nyt forud for dagens industriproduktionstal (se figur). Storbritannien: Rentemødet i Bank of England bød som ventet ikke på nyheder. Både renten og størrelsen på opkøbsprogrammet var uændret. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report. Tyskland: Svage industriordrer i november Kilde: Macrobond Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. januar 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier Renter Valuta OMXC20 CAP (+1,32% / indeks 804,75) endte gårsdagens handel i positivt territorium på linje med de øvrige europæiske aktieindeks. Den positive stemning var især drevet af investorernes forventning om at den europæiske centralbank snart vil lempe pengepolitikken på grund af den lave inflation i eurozonen. I bunden af indekset endte Pandora (4,20% / kurs 472,50) efter smykkekæden Signet, som er Pandoras største forhandler i USA, gav en salgsopdatering for julesalget. Signet meddelte at julesalget af charms, hvorfra Pandora henter størstedelen af omsætningen, har været til den svage side. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet William Demant (+2,36% / kurs 472,50) efter Citigroup satte aktien på sin anbefalingsliste Key Buy Europe. Dagens kursmæssige vinder blev A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+3,75% / kurs 12.450,00) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Uden for det ledende danske C20 indeks var Matas (-1,44% / kurs 137,00) i fokus efter selskabet gav en salgsopdatering for 3. kvartal der ikke bød på meget overraskende nyt. Matas meddelte dog at julehandlen har været mere træg end ventet. Obligationsrenterne steg for en gangs skyld i går i takt med at aktiemarkedet bød på stigninger efter store flad først på ugen. EUR svækkedes lidt i går over for USD, men er styrket marginalt her til morgen. Styrkelsen over for USD her til morgen kan muligvis hænge sammen med, at Fed’s Kocherlakota i en tale i nat dansk tid advarede mod at Fed hæver renten for tidligt. Fra euroområdet var nøgletallene blandede. EU-Kommissionens ESI konjunkturbaramoter for december skuffede ved at være uændret i forhold til november måned selvom euroområdets økonomi burde få støtte fra den svagere EUR og den lavere oliepris. Til gengæld steg detailomsætningen i november mere end ventet. De amerikanske statsrenter blev nok også primært drevet op af fremgang på aktiemarkederne og måske på forventning om en relativ stærk arbejdsmarkedsrapport i dag. JPY svækkedes i går over for USD, men er styrket her til morgen i den asiatiske handel. NOK havde for en gangs skyld en god dag i går og styrkedes over for EUR. Det hang nok sammen med, at olieprisen stabiliseredes og endda steg lidt. Den finansielle uro i Grækenland frem mod parlamentsvalget fortsætter. Renten på den 10-årige græske statsobligation steg over 10% i forgårs, men faldt dog tilbage igen til lige under 10% i går. . Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Aktuelt Valuta %-Ændring 10-årige renter Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Råvarer Ændring Aktuelt OMXC20CAP 804,8 1,32 USD/JPY 119,4 -0,490 USA 2,01 0,03 CRB Stoxx600 342,4 2,75 EUR/USD 1,181 -0,001 Euroområdet 0,51 0,03 Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE 6570,0 2,34 USD/DKK 6,301 0,006 Danmark 0,54 0,06 Gold (spot) S&P500 2062,1 1,79 CHF/DKK 6,194 0,000 Nasdaq 4736,2 1,84 GBP/DKK 9,510 0,013 Hang Seng 24081,8 1,03 SEK/DKK 0,786 -0,003 Nikkei 17191,3 0,14 NOK/DKK 0,827 0,009 %-Ændring 225,9 0,37 51,2 -0,56 1211,2 0,15 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. USA Euroland UK Danmark Sverige Norge 0,125 0,05 0,50 0,20 0,00 1,25 0,125 0,05 0,50 0,20 0,00 1,25 0,500 0,05 0,75 0,20 0,00 1,25 +12 mdr. 1,250 0,05 1,00 0,20 0,25 1,25 Aktuelt 10-årig statsobligationer +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. 2,01 0,51 1,65 0,76 0,86 1,46 2,40 0,80 2,25 0,80 1,20 2,00 2,40 0,90 2,50 1,00 1,40 2,25 2,50 1,00 3,00 1,10 1,60 2,50 Aktuelt EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/DKK EUR/DKK SEK/DKK NOK/DKK 1,181 119,4 6,301 7,440 0,7858 0,8272 Valuta +3 mdr. 1,22 117,0 6,11 7,45 0,797 0,876 +6 mdr. 1,16 130,0 6,42 7,45 0,828 0,876 +12 mdr. 1,10 140,0 6,77 7,45 0,856 0,876 2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. januar 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige regnskaber Økonomisk kalender Dato 05-01-15 05-01-15 05-01-15 05-01-15 05-01-15 05-01-15 05-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 06-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 07-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 08-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 09-01-15 Tid 02:35 10:30 14:00 15:45 16:00 16:00 02:45 09:00 09:00 09:00 10:00 10:30 15:45 16:00 16:00 08:00 09:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 13:00 14:15 14:30 20:00 00:30 08:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 13:00 13:00 13:30 14:30 14:30 15:45 02:00 08:00 09:00 09:00 09:00 09:15 09:30 10:00 10:30 14:30 14:30 14:30 Land Japan EMU Tyskland USA Danmark Danmark USA Kina Norge Danmark Danmark EMU UK USA USA USA Tyskland Schweiz EMU EMU EMU USA USA USA USA USA Tyskland EMU EMU EMU UK UK USA USA USA USA USA Tyskland Danmark Danmark Danmark Schweiz Sverige Norge UK USA USA USA Indikator Periode Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Dec F Sentix Investor Confidence Jan CPI MoM/YoY Dec P ISM New York Dec Foreign Reserves Dec Change in Currency Reserves Dec Domestic vehicle sales Dec HSBC China Services PMI Dec Manufacturing PMI Dec Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Nov Industriens konjunkturbarometer Dec Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Dec F Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Dec Markit US Composite PMI Dec F Factory Orders Nov ISM Non-Manf. Composite Dec Retail Sales MoM/YoY Nov Foreign Currency Reserves Dec Unemployment Rate Nov CPI Estimate YoY Dec CPI Core YoY Dec A MBA Mortgage Applications ADP Employment Change Dec Trade Balance Nov Fed Releases Minutes from Its Dec. 16-17 FOMC Meeting Fed's Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy in Chicago Factory Orders MoM/WDA YoY Nov PPI MoM/YoY Nov Retail Sales MoM/YoY Nov Economic Confidence Dec BOE Asset Purchase Target Jan Bank of England Bank Rate Challenger Job Cuts YoY Dec Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in Minneapolis Industrial Production SA MoM/YoY Nov Industrial Production MoM Nov Trade Balance ex Ships Nov Current Account Balance Nov CPI MoM/YoY Dec Industrial Production MoM/YoY Nov CPI-ATE MoM/YoY Dec Industrial Production MoM/YoY Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Dec Unemployment Rate Dec Average Hourly Earnings MoM/YoY Dec Survey --1 0.1%/0.3% ---13,7M -50,5 5,0% -51,7 57,4 -0,4% 58 0.2%/0.6% 472.0B 11,5% -0,1% 0,7% -226K -$42.0B SHB -----------10 -------11,5% 0,0% 0,7% ---- Forrige 52,1 -2,5 0.00%/0.6% 62,4 445,5 2.2B 13,78M 53 51,3 5,0% -15 51,7 57,6 53,8 -0,7% 59,3 1.9%/1.7% 462.7B(r) 11,5% 0,3% 0,7% 0,9% 227K(r) -$42.2B(r) Faktisk 52,0 0,9 0.0%/0.2% 70,8 446,8 1,3B 13,46M 53,4 49,8 5,0% -19 51,4 55,2% 53,5 -0,7% 56,2 1.0%/-0.8% 495.1B 11,5% -0,2% 0,8% 11,1% 241K -$39.0B -0.8%/1% -0.2%/-1.4% 0.2%/0.2% 101,2 375B 0,5% -290K --- ---101,5 375B 0,5% ----- 2.5%/2.4% -0.4%/-1.3% 0.4%/1.4% 100,8 375B 0,5% -21% 298K 2353K 42,7 -2.4%/0.4% -0.3%/-0.6% 0.6%/1.5% 100,7 375B 0,5% 6.6% 294K 2452K 43,6 0.2%/-0.6% ----0.4%/-0.2% 0.5%/-3.7% 0.0%/2.5% 0.2%/1.7% 243K 5,7% 0.2%/2.2% -----1.3%/-3.7% 0.1%/2.5% -250K 5,7% -- 0.2%/0.8% 2,8% 7.1B 13.2B 0.0%/-0.1% 0.2%/0.1% 0.1%/2.4% -0.1%/1.1% 321K 5,8% 0.4%/2.1% Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected]) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er n øjagtige og fuldkomne. 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