Macro Research 27. oktober 2014 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste nøgletal bliver nok det tyske Ifo industritillidsindeks. Tysk Ifo stopper måske faldet Konsensus venter uændret forventningsindeks og et lille fald i indekset for den nuværende økonomiske situation. Ifo har normalt mindre udsving end PMI, som jo overraskende steg i oktober, og det er en af grundene til at vi er skeptiske over for om Ifo kan følge PMI op. Selv et uændret forventningsindeks vil være et markant skifte i forhold til de seneste måneder, som har budt på store fald (se figur). ECB begyndte i sidste uge sine obligationsopkøb under det seneste opkøbsprogram. ECB vil ugentligt udmelde, hvad og hvor meget, der er købt, og det sker første gang i dag. Fra USA kommer opgørelsen af de verserende bolighandler i september, og her ventes en rimelig udramatisk udvikling med en stigning på 1,0% m/m, som dermed reverserer faldet i august. Dermed synes aktiviteten fortsat at befinde sig i et dødvande. Det er i overensstemmelse med den fortsat afdæmpede aktivitet i antallet af realkreditansøgninger i forbindelse med boligkøb samt det seneste fald i NAHB-indekset oven på en række uventede stigninger henover sommeren. På den anden side har vi modtaget lidt opmuntrende tegn med de seneste fald i realkreditrenterne, hvor det nok er for tidligt at vente en positiv effekt på handelsaktiviteten. Hovedbegivenheden i resten af ugen bliver nok rentemødet i Fed onsdag aften, hvor Fed ventes at stoppe opkøbene under sit seneste opkøbsprogram. Dagen efter kommer første estimat for BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal for USA. Fra euroområdet kommer ESI-barometret torsdag, og ledighed og inflation fredag. Der er rentemøde i Sveriges Riksbanken tirsdag, hvor renten ventes nedsat. Torsdag kommer der danske ledighedstal og erhvervslivets konjunkturbarometre Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Amerikanske aktier og renter steg generelt i fredags, mens de europæiske faldt lidt. Nikkei er i plus her til morgen. EUR er styrket over for USD. Euroområdet: ECB offentliggjorde i går resultatet af sin ”Comprehensive Assessment” baseret på en gennemgang af de 130 vigtigste banker i euroområdet. Gennemgangen er fordelt på en vurdering af bankernes aktivkvalitet samt en stresstest. 25 banker dumpede stresstesten, heraf flest italienske banker inklusive Italiens tredjestørste bank Monte Paschi. Ingen af de store banker i euroområdet faldt igennem. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af 2013, men størstedelen af denne kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014, og i øvrigt har de berørte banker op til ni måneder til at øge kapitaldækningen. Kun otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt planer for, hvordan det skal gøres. Resultatet vil nok blive modtaget positivt på de finansielle markeder her til morgen. Det havde måske været bedre, hvis endnu færre banker havde fejlet testen, men hvis meget få banker var fejlet, ville testen måske være blevet anset som utroværdig som følge af for lempelige kriterier. USA: Salget af nye boliger steg en smule i september på linje med konsensusestimatet, men der var nedrevideringer af de foregående måneder. Brasilien: Den siddende brasilianske præsident Dilma Rousseff vandt i går anden runde af præsidentvalget og fik 52% af stemmerne. Det brasilianske aktiemarked står til at falde, når det åbner senere i dag, i skuffelse over at den mere reform- og markedsvenlige udfordrer Aceio Neves ikke vandt, selvom meningsmålingerne er gået Rousseuffs vej de seneste uger. Kina: BNP-væksten vil nok falde til 7,2% i fjerde kvartal ifølge Song Guoqing, som sidder i centralbankens rådgivende komite. Storbritannien: Britisk BNP-vækst faldt til 0,7% q/q i 3. kvartal fra 0,9% i 2. kvartal på linje med konsensusestimatet. De 25 mest stressede banker Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy Co-operative Central Bank, Cyprus Eurobank Ergasias, Greece Banca Carige, Italy Hellenic Bank Public Company, Cyprus National Bank of Greece, Greece Permanent tsb, Ireland Bank of Cyprus Public Company, Cyprus Österreichische Volksbanken, Austria Veneto Banca, Italy Münchener Hypothekenbank, Germany Banco Comercial Português, Portugal Banca Popolare di Vicenza, Italy AXA Bank Europe, Belgium Credito Valtellinese, Italy Banca Popolare Di Milano, Italy Banca Popolare di Sondrio, Italy Piraeus Bank, Greece Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor, Slovenia Banco Popolare - Società Cooperativa, Italy Dexia NV, Belgium Nova Ljubljanska banka d. d., Ljubljana, Slovenia Banca Popolare Dell'Emilia, Italy C.R.H. - Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat, France Liberbank, S.A., Spain For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report. Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. oktober 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier Renter Valuta OMXC20 CAP (-0,53% / indeks 781,50) endte i negativt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag og fulgte dermed de europæiske aktiemarkeder sydpå efter en særdeles god uge ellers. Den negative stemning primært drevet af en lidt forstærket ebola-frygt i markedet efter en læge i New York har fået konstateret ebola efter sin hjemkomst fra Vestafrika. De amerikanske statsrenter steg fredag sammen med aktiemarkederne. De tyske og danske statsrenter fulgte ikke med op, blandt andet fordi det blev lækket, at 25 banker ville dumpe ECB’s stresstest. Det blev anset for et højt tal. Da stresstesten (og vurderingen af kvaliteten af bankernes aktiver) blev offentliggjort i går søndag, viste det sig dog, at der ikke var nogen af de store europæiske banker blandt de 25, og markederne vil nok åbne med rentestigninger her til morgen. Der var flest italienske banker blandt de 25, inklusive Italiens tredjestørste bank Monte Paschi. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af 2013, men størstedelen af denne kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014, og i øvrigt har de berørte banker op til ni måneder til at øge kapitaldækningen. Kun otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt planer for, hvordan det skal gøres. EUR er fortsat fredagens styrkelse over for USD her til morgen. Det er nok især drevet af det relativt positive udfald af ECB’s stresstest, som blev offentliggjort i går søndag. Godt nok var der 25 banker, hvis kapitaldækning var utilstrækkelig ved udgangen i 2013. Men kun otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt planer for, hvordan det skal gøres. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af 2013, men størstedelen af denne kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014. Der var ikke nogen af de største europæiske banker blandt de 25. Den største var italienske Monte Paschi. I bunden af indekset endte Vestas (-3,50% / kurs 190,50) på trods af, at selskabet modtog den første kinesiske ordre efter mere end 1 års ordretørke i Kina. Derudover har EUlandene også indgået en omfattende aftale på klima- og energiområdet, som løber frem mod 2030, hvilket dog heller ikke gav noget medvind til aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen Holding (+2,88% / kurs 232,50) og belønnes dermed fortsat for onsdagens bedre end frygtet regnskab. Uden for C20-indekset var Rockwool (+0,90% / kurs 840,00) i fokus efter meddelelsen om, at selskabet skifter deres mangeårige direktør Eelco van Heel ud med svenske Jens Birgersson, som kommer fra en stilling i ABB. GBP styrkedes lidt over for både EUR og USD fredag efter første offentliggørelse af britisk BNP for 3. kvartal viste, at væksten kun faldt lidt til fortsat solide 0,7% q/q. BRL styrkedes markant over for USD fredag, efter en af de sidste meningsmålinger inden gårsdagens præsidentvalg viste, at udfordreren Aecio Neves måske alligevel havde en chance for at vinde. Styrkelses vil dog nok blive reverseret i dag, da Neves tabte og kun fik 48% af stemmerne. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Aktuelt Valuta %-Ændring 10-årige renter Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 781.5 -0.53 USD/JPY 107.9 -0.090 Stoxx600 327.2 -0.33 EUR/USD 1.271 0.005 FTSE 6388.7 -0.47 USD/DKK 5.859 -0.025 S&P500 1964.6 0.71 CHF/DKK 6.171 0.000 Nasdaq 4483.7 0.69 GBP/DKK 9.435 -0.003 Hang Seng 23135.5 -0.72 SEK/DKK 0.811 0.000 Nikkei 15387.0 0.62 NOK/DKK 0.891 -0.004 Aktuelt Råvarer Ændring Aktuelt USA 2.28 0.03 CRB Euroområdet 0.89 -0.01 Brent oil (1M fut) Danmark 0.86 -0.01 Gold (spot) Ændring 270.2 1.64 85.9 -0.61 1231.5 0.13 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. USA Euroland UK Danmark Sverige Norge 0.125 0.05 0.50 0.20 0.25 1.50 0.125 0.05 0.50 0.20 0.05 1.50 0.500 0.05 0.75 0.20 0.05 1.50 +12 mdr. 1.250 0.05 1.00 0.20 0.75 1.50 Aktuelt 10-årig statsobligationer +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. 2.28 0.89 2.23 1.15 1.27 2.18 2.50 0.95 2.45 1.00 1.50 2.50 3.00 1.25 2.75 1.25 1.85 2.60 3.40 1.50 3.00 1.55 2.20 2.60 Aktuelt EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/DKK EUR/DKK SEK/DKK NOK/DKK 1.271 107.9 5.859 7.446 0.8107 0.8914 Valuta +3 mdr. 1.24 109.0 6.01 7.45 0.828 0.898 +6 mdr. 1.16 110.0 6.42 7.45 0.837 0.898 +12 mdr. 1.10 110.0 6.77 7.45 0.866 0.909 2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. oktober 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato 27-10-14 28-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 31-10-14 Selskab Exiqon Sydbank DSV Jyske Bank Spar Nord Bank Coloplast Danske Bank Novo Nordisk TDC Regnskab 3. kvartal 3. kvartal 3. kvartal 3. kvartal 3. kvartal Årsregnskab 3. kvartal 3. kvartal 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato 27-10-14 27-10-14 27-10-14 27-10-14 27-10-14 27-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 28-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 29-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 30-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 31-10-14 Tid 10:00 10:00 12:00 14:45 15:00 15:30 00:50 02:30 08:00 09:30 13:30 13:30 14:00 15:00 15:00 00:50 08:45 09:00 10:00 12:00 19:00 19:00 08:00 09:00 09:00 09:00 09:55 11:00 13:30 13:30 14:00 14:45 00:30 00:30 01:05 08:00 08:45 11:00 11:00 11:00 13:30 13:30 13:30 14:45 Land Tyskland EMU UK USA USA USA Japan Kina Tyskland Sverige USA USA USA USA USA Japan Frankrig Sverige Norge USA USA USA UK Danmark Danmark Schweiz Tyskland EMU USA USA Tyskland USA Japan Japan Japan UK Tyskland Frankrig EMU EMU EMU USA USA USA USA Indikator IFO Business Climate M3 Money Supply YoY CBI Reported Sales Markit US Composite PMI Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Retail Sales MoM Industrial Profits YoY Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Riksbank Interest Rate Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Consumer Confidence Index Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Consumer Confidence Economic Tendency Survey Unemployment Rate AKU MBA Mortgage Applications Fed QE3 Pace FOMC Rate Decision Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) Unemployment Rate SA Unemployment Rate Gross Rate KOF Leading Indicator Unemployment Rate Economic Confidence Initial Jobless Claims GDP Annualized QoQ CPI (MoM/YoY) Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jobless Rate Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement GfK Consumer Confidence Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Unemployment Rate CPI Estimate YoY CPI Core YoY Personal Income (MoM) Personal Spending (MoM) PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Chicago Purchasing Manager Periode Oct Sep Oct Oct P Sep Oct Sep Sep Sep Oct 28 Sep Sep Aug Oct Oct Sep P Oct Oct Aug Oct 24 Oct Oct 29 Oct Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct 25 3Q A Oct P Oct 26 Sep Sep Oct Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct A Sep Sep Sep Oct Survey 104.6 2.2% --1.0% 11.0 0.9%/0.8% --0.1%/-1.9% 0.050% 0.4% 0.6% 0.15%/5.65% 87.2 10 2.2%/-0.1% --3.4% -$0B 0.25% 0.3%/8.5% 3.9% 5.0% 99.0 6.7% 99.8 -3.0% -0.2%/0.9% -3.6% 3.0% SHB 104.5 --------0.050% 0.5% --87.5 ----3.3% ----4.0% 5.1% 98 -100.2 -3.5% ----- Forrige 104.7 2.0% 31 59.0 -1.0%/-4.1% 10.8 1.9%/1.2% -0.6% -0.1%/-1.9% 0.250% -18.4% 0.4% -0.50%/6.75% 86.0 14 -1.9%/-3.3% 8600.00% 101.1 3.4% 11.6% $15B 0.25% -0.2%/9.4% 3.9% 5.0% 99.1 6.7% 99.9 283K 4.6% 0.0%/0.8% 37.7 3.5% 3.1% -1.0 --11.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%/ 61.0 ----0.4% 0.7% -0.1% 0.1%/ -- -1.0 1.5%/0.1% 0.7%/1.4% 11.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%/1.5% 60.5 Faktisk Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected]) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er n øjagtige og fuldkomne. 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