Monday, January 19, 2015
China Merchants Securities (HK) Co. Ltd.
Hong Kong Equity Research
Industry Report
Alex NG
China Hardware Technology
852-31896125
Implications of Xiaomi’s Mi Note launch
[email protected]
■ Xiaomi’s flagship Mi Note to accelerate component upgrade cycle;
Camera upgrade (13MP, OIS) is positive to Sunny Optical
■ “Smart Module” to expand MIUI ecosystem across platforms
■ Reiterate BUY on Sunny Optical, and NEUTRAL on AAC and Truly
OVERWEIGHT
What’s new
Previous
Xiaomi unveiled its flagship smartphone, Mi Note, in its product launch
event yesterday. Key spec of Mi Note is mostly in-line with expectations
(Qualcomm Snapdragon 801, 5.7" screen and 13MP OIS camera), while
we believe pricing of RMB2299 is above market expectations given that it is
their first flagship model with price above RMB2000. In addition, Xiaomi
announced the "smart module" project, and aims to partner with different
hardware brands for expanding product categories under MIUI ecosystem,
We believe Sunny Optical and AAC Tech will benefit from Xiaomi's volume
growth story in China/EM in FY15-16E (62mn/100mn, +220%/+61% YoY).
OVERWEIGHT
HSI
24104
HSCEI
12077
Sector Performance
(%)
30
Hardware Technology
HSI Index
20
10
Xiaomi Mi Note to target higher-pricing segment (RMB2000+)
We expect Mi Notes’ new pricing could allow Xiaomi to 1) penetrate into
higher-end segment (RMB2000+) to fuel growth in FY15, 2) upgrade their
brand image to improve profitability, and 3) increase adoption of advanced
components for better design and user experience amid 4G upgrade cycle.
We believe Mi Note’s camera upgrade (13MP, OIS) will speed up spec
migration in 1H15, benefiting China’s largest camera module maker Sunny
Optical (Xiaomi: 10% of FY14E sales). We also expect this is positive to
acoustics/antenna supplier AAC Tech (Xiaomi: ~15% of FY14E sales),
despite our conservative view on its progress of non-acoustics (haptics,
RF, optics) transition in the near term.
MIUI ecosystem to expand into smart home aggressively
Following Xiaomi’s RMB1.27bn investment into home appliance giant
Midea in Dec, we expect Xiaomi’s newly self-developed “smart module” will
accelerate product launches across different segments (smart home as
priority), and its smartphone with MIUI will be the heart of the ecosystem to
deliver consistent user experience across screens. We believe its strategy
aligns with next industry trend for internet of things (IoT), and Chinese
leading component suppliers will benefit from the multi-year growth cycle.
0
-10
-20
Jan/14
May/14
Aug/14
Dec/14
Source: Bigdata
%
1m
6m
12m
Absolute return
Relative return
9.2
(4.4)
11.1
2.9
(6.9)
6.2
Related Research
1. China Hardware Technology - Implications of Xiaomi’s Mi Note
launch (OVERWEIGHT) 2015/01/16
2. China Hardware Technology - Shenzhen Tech Tour Takeaways
(OVERWEIGHT) 2014/10/08
3. China Hardware Technology - iPhone 6, 6 Plus and Apple Watch
revealed as expected; Positive to Sunny Optical and Truly,
Remain neutral on AAC Tech (OVERWEIGHT) 2014/09/11
Valuations/ Key risks
We reiterate BUY on Sunny Optical given its solid HCM leadership and
growth potential in high-margin handset/auto lens. We maintain NEUTRAL
on AAC Tech due to near-term uncertainties in non-acoustic transition, and
NEUTRAL on Truly for limited visibility on shipment/margin recovery. Risks
include weaker China/EM demand and component shortage.
Financials
here text here text here text here text here text here
Company
Ticker
Rating
Sunny Optical
AAC Tech
Truly
2382 HK
2018 HK
732 HK
BUY
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
Current
Price
(HK$)
11.56
45.90
2.69
Target
Price
(HK$)
16.70
48.70
3.81*
EPS
Upside
44%
6%
42%
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY14E
FY15E
0.57
2.10
0.44
0.79
2.60
0.56
16.2
17.5
6.1
11.7
14.1
4.8
2.9
4.6
1.0
18%
27%
16%
21%
27%
17%
Source: Bloomberg, CMS (HK)
To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO>
1
2015 年 1 月 19 日(星期一)
招商证券（香港）有限公司
证券研究部
行业报告
伍力恒
中国硬件科技
852-31896125
“小米Note” 的发布对行业的影响
[email protected]
■
我们认为小米旗舰产品 - 小米Note的推出将加速零组件的升级周期﹔特
别是在摄像头方面的升级(1300万像素、OIS)利好舜宇光学
新推出的“智能模块”将使MIUI生态系统延伸至更多的硬件平台上
推荐
重申对舜宇光学买入评级，以及对瑞声科技和信利国际的中性评级
前次评级
推荐
事件，投资策略及建议
恒生指数
24104
小米昨天在产品发布会上发布了新的旗舰智能手机小米Note，主要的硬件配
置大致符合市场预期(高通骁龙801处理器、5.7吋萤幕和1300万像素OIS摄像
头)。而我们认为小米Note作为公司首款价格高于2,000元的旗舰机型，其定
价2,299元(人民币，下同)超出市场预期。此外，小米发布了“智能模块”项目，
将与不同的硬件品牌合作，在MIUI生态系统下布局不同的领域。我们认为舜
宇光学和瑞声科技将受益于2015-16年度小米在国内/新兴市场的布局销量增
长(2015-16年度：6,200万台/1亿台，同比上升220%/61%)。
国企指数
12077
■
■
行业表现
(%)
30
电子及硬件科技
恒生指数
20
10
小米Note将定位于中高端市场(2,000元以上)
我们认为小米Note的新定价将加快公司︰1) 渗透中高端市场(2,000元以上)，
成为2015年度的新增长动力；2) 提升品牌形象以提高利润率，以及3)增加高
端零组件的配置，以满足在4G转型中更高的产品设计要求和用户体验。我们
相信小米Note对于摄像头的升级(1300万像素、OIS)将在2015年上半年加快
对高端零部件的需求，利好国内最大的镜头模组厂商舜宇光学(小米占收入的
10%)。虽然我们对声学/天线产品制造商瑞声科技(小米占收入约15%)短期内
在非声学产品(触控、无线射频及光学)转型进展较为保守，但是我们认为小米
Note的推出将增加对公司高端零组件的需求。
0
-10
-20
2014/01
2014/05
2014/08
2014/12
资料来源：贝格数据
%
1m
6m
12m
绝对表现
相对表现
9.2
(4.4)
11.1
2.9
(6.9)
6.2
MIUI生态系统积极进军智能家居
相关报告
在小米于12月向中国家电巨头美的集团投资12.7亿元后，我们预计小米将加
快自行研发的 “智能模块”的布局，并在不同的细分市场中推出新产品(首先将
是智能家居)，并以MIUI智能手机为核心打造一致的跨屏幕用户体验。我们相
信公司的战略将与行业未来的物联网(IoT)趋势一致，而国内领先的零组件供
应商将受惠于未来数年的产品周期。
1. China Hardware Technology - Implications of Xiaomi’s Mi Note
launch (OVERWEIGHT) 2015/01/16
2. China Hardware Technology - Shenzhen Tech Tour Takeaways
(OVERWEIGHT) 2014/10/08
3. China Hardware Technology - iPhone 6, 6 Plus and Apple Watch
revealed as expected; Positive to Sunny Optical and Truly,
Remain neutral on AAC Tech (OVERWEIGHT) 2014/09/11
估值/ 主要风险
基于舜宇光学在手机镜头模组领域的领导地位，以及在手机/车载镜头等高利
润产品的增长潜力，我们重申公司的买入评级。由于短期内在非声学产品转
型方面的不确定性，我们维持瑞声科技的中性评级。同时，我们对信利国际
维持中性评级，主要原因是由于公司在出货量和利润水平复苏方面的确定性
较低。主要风险包括国内和新兴市场的需求弱于预期，以及零组件短缺等。
重点公司主要财务指标
公司
舜宇光学
瑞声科技
信利国际
股票
代码
评级
2382 HK
2018 HK
732 HK
买入
中性
中性
股价
(港元)
11.56
45.90
2.69
目标价
(港元)
16.70
48.70
3.81
上涨
空间
44%
6%
42%
EPS
FY14E FY15E
0.57
2.10
0.44
0.79
2.60
0.56
P/E(x)
FY14E FY15E
16.2
17.5
6.1
11.7
14.1
4.8
P/B(x)
FY14E
2.9
4.6
1.0
ROE(%)
FY14E FY15E
18%
27%
16%
21%
27%
17%
资料来源：彭博、招商证券（香港）
彭博终端报告下载: CMHK <GO>
2
Monday, January 19, 2015
Focus charts
Figure 2: Xiaomi’s Smart Home solution
Figure 1: Spec of Xiaomi Mi Note
iPhone 6
Plus
Samsung
Galaxy Note 4
Xiaomi
Note
Xiaomi Note
Prem
Screen
5.5"/ 401PPI
5.7"/ 515PPI
5.7"/ 386PPI
5.7"/ 515PPI
Weight
172g
175g
161g
161g
CPU
A8 dual-core
Qualcomm
Quad-core
2.7GHz
Qualcomm
Quad-core
2.5GHz
Qualcomm
Octa-core
2.0GHz
GPU
A8 GPU
Adreno 420
Adreno 330
Adreno 430
1GB
3GB
3GB
LPDDR3
4GB
LPDDR4
2915mAh
3000mAh
3000mAh
3090mAh
8MP/1.2MP
16MP/3.7MP
13MP/4MP
13MP/4MP
RMB6999
RMB5399
RMB2699
RMB3299
RAM
Battery
Camera
Price
Source: Company, CMS(HK)
Source: Company, CMS(HK)
Figure 3: Xiaomi MIUI Ecosystem
Figure 4: Mi Note’s upgraded rear camera (13MP, OIS)
Source: Company, CMS(HK)
Source: Company, CMS(HK)
Figure 5: Peers Comparison
Rating
Mkt Cap
(USD mn)
Current
Price
(local)
Target
Price
(HKD)
Upside
(%)
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
Company
Ticker
Sunny Optical
2382 HK
Buy
1,636
11.56
16.7
44%
16.2
11.7
2.9
2.5
18%
21%
AAC Tech
2018 HK
Neutral
7,273
45.90
48.7
6%
17.5
14.1
4.6
3.8
27%
27%
Truly Intl
732 HK
Neutral
1,009
2.69
3.81
42%
6.1
4.8
1.0
0.8
16%
17%
Coolpad
2369 HK
Neutral
848
1.53
1.55
1%
10.2
9.0
1.9
1.6
20%
19%
TCL Comm
2618 HK
Buy
1,123
7.13
9.9
39%
8.6
6.5
2.4
1.9
28%
30%
ZTE*
763 HK
N/A
10,424
18.22
N/A
N/A
18.7
15.5
2.0
1.8
11%
12%
BYD E*
285 HK
N/A
2,413
8.30
N/A
N/A
13.4
10.5
1.5
1.4
12%
13%
FIH*
2038 HK
N/A
3,628
3.61
N/A
N/A
22.2
16.1
0.9
0.9
4%
5%
Ju Teng*
3336 HK
N/A
588
3.92
N/A
N/A
5.8
5.1
0.7
0.6
12%
12%
Catcher*
2474 TT
N/A
25,498
257.50
N/A
N/A
12.1
10.8
2.3
2.0
20%
20%
Largan*
3008 TT
N/A
41,281
2385.00
N/A
N/A
18.3
14.7
7.4
5.4
48%
42%
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
* Bloomberg consensus data
Source: Company, CMS(HK), Bloomberg
To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO>
3
Monday, January 19, 2015
Investment Ratings
Rating
Definition
OVERWEIGHT
Expected to outperform the market index by > 10% over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL
Expected to outperform or underperform the market index by 10% or less over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT
Expected to underperform the market index by >10% over the next 12 months
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recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
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Please refer to the important disclosures on our website http://www.newone.com.hk/cmshk/en/disclosure.html.
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4