Monday, January 19, 2015 China Merchants Securities (HK) Co. Ltd. Hong Kong Equity Research Industry Report Alex NG China Hardware Technology 852-31896125 Implications of Xiaomi’s Mi Note launch [email protected] ■ Xiaomi’s flagship Mi Note to accelerate component upgrade cycle; Camera upgrade (13MP, OIS) is positive to Sunny Optical ■ “Smart Module” to expand MIUI ecosystem across platforms ■ Reiterate BUY on Sunny Optical, and NEUTRAL on AAC and Truly OVERWEIGHT What’s new Previous Xiaomi unveiled its flagship smartphone, Mi Note, in its product launch event yesterday. Key spec of Mi Note is mostly in-line with expectations (Qualcomm Snapdragon 801, 5.7" screen and 13MP OIS camera), while we believe pricing of RMB2299 is above market expectations given that it is their first flagship model with price above RMB2000. In addition, Xiaomi announced the "smart module" project, and aims to partner with different hardware brands for expanding product categories under MIUI ecosystem, We believe Sunny Optical and AAC Tech will benefit from Xiaomi's volume growth story in China/EM in FY15-16E (62mn/100mn, +220%/+61% YoY). OVERWEIGHT HSI 24104 HSCEI 12077 Sector Performance (%) 30 Hardware Technology HSI Index 20 10 Xiaomi Mi Note to target higher-pricing segment (RMB2000+) We expect Mi Notes’ new pricing could allow Xiaomi to 1) penetrate into higher-end segment (RMB2000+) to fuel growth in FY15, 2) upgrade their brand image to improve profitability, and 3) increase adoption of advanced components for better design and user experience amid 4G upgrade cycle. We believe Mi Note’s camera upgrade (13MP, OIS) will speed up spec migration in 1H15, benefiting China’s largest camera module maker Sunny Optical (Xiaomi: 10% of FY14E sales). We also expect this is positive to acoustics/antenna supplier AAC Tech (Xiaomi: ~15% of FY14E sales), despite our conservative view on its progress of non-acoustics (haptics, RF, optics) transition in the near term. MIUI ecosystem to expand into smart home aggressively Following Xiaomi’s RMB1.27bn investment into home appliance giant Midea in Dec, we expect Xiaomi’s newly self-developed “smart module” will accelerate product launches across different segments (smart home as priority), and its smartphone with MIUI will be the heart of the ecosystem to deliver consistent user experience across screens. We believe its strategy aligns with next industry trend for internet of things (IoT), and Chinese leading component suppliers will benefit from the multi-year growth cycle. 0 -10 -20 Jan/14 May/14 Aug/14 Dec/14 Source: Bigdata % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return Relative return 9.2 (4.4) 11.1 2.9 (6.9) 6.2 Related Research 1. China Hardware Technology - Implications of Xiaomi’s Mi Note launch (OVERWEIGHT) 2015/01/16 2. China Hardware Technology - Shenzhen Tech Tour Takeaways (OVERWEIGHT) 2014/10/08 3. China Hardware Technology - iPhone 6, 6 Plus and Apple Watch revealed as expected; Positive to Sunny Optical and Truly, Remain neutral on AAC Tech (OVERWEIGHT) 2014/09/11 Valuations/ Key risks We reiterate BUY on Sunny Optical given its solid HCM leadership and growth potential in high-margin handset/auto lens. We maintain NEUTRAL on AAC Tech due to near-term uncertainties in non-acoustic transition, and NEUTRAL on Truly for limited visibility on shipment/margin recovery. Risks include weaker China/EM demand and component shortage. Financials here text here text here text here text here text here Company Ticker Rating Sunny Optical AAC Tech Truly 2382 HK 2018 HK 732 HK BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL Current Price (HK$) 11.56 45.90 2.69 Target Price (HK$) 16.70 48.70 3.81* EPS Upside 44% 6% 42% P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY14E FY15E 0.57 2.10 0.44 0.79 2.60 0.56 16.2 17.5 6.1 11.7 14.1 4.8 2.9 4.6 1.0 18% 27% 16% 21% 27% 17% Source: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 1 2015 年 1 月 19 日(星期一) 招商证券(香港)有限公司 证券研究部 行业报告 伍力恒 中国硬件科技 852-31896125 “小米Note” 的发布对行业的影响 [email protected] ■ 我们认为小米旗舰产品 - 小米Note的推出将加速零组件的升级周期﹔特 别是在摄像头方面的升级(1300万像素、OIS)利好舜宇光学 新推出的“智能模块”将使MIUI生态系统延伸至更多的硬件平台上 推荐 重申对舜宇光学买入评级,以及对瑞声科技和信利国际的中性评级 前次评级 推荐 事件,投资策略及建议 恒生指数 24104 小米昨天在产品发布会上发布了新的旗舰智能手机小米Note,主要的硬件配 置大致符合市场预期(高通骁龙801处理器、5.7吋萤幕和1300万像素OIS摄像 头)。而我们认为小米Note作为公司首款价格高于2,000元的旗舰机型,其定 价2,299元(人民币,下同)超出市场预期。此外,小米发布了“智能模块”项目, 将与不同的硬件品牌合作,在MIUI生态系统下布局不同的领域。我们认为舜 宇光学和瑞声科技将受益于2015-16年度小米在国内/新兴市场的布局销量增 长(2015-16年度:6,200万台/1亿台,同比上升220%/61%)。 国企指数 12077 ■ ■ 行业表现 (%) 30 电子及硬件科技 恒生指数 20 10 小米Note将定位于中高端市场(2,000元以上) 我们认为小米Note的新定价将加快公司︰1) 渗透中高端市场(2,000元以上), 成为2015年度的新增长动力;2) 提升品牌形象以提高利润率,以及3)增加高 端零组件的配置,以满足在4G转型中更高的产品设计要求和用户体验。我们 相信小米Note对于摄像头的升级(1300万像素、OIS)将在2015年上半年加快 对高端零部件的需求,利好国内最大的镜头模组厂商舜宇光学(小米占收入的 10%)。虽然我们对声学/天线产品制造商瑞声科技(小米占收入约15%)短期内 在非声学产品(触控、无线射频及光学)转型进展较为保守,但是我们认为小米 Note的推出将增加对公司高端零组件的需求。 0 -10 -20 2014/01 2014/05 2014/08 2014/12 资料来源:贝格数据 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 相对表现 9.2 (4.4) 11.1 2.9 (6.9) 6.2 MIUI生态系统积极进军智能家居 相关报告 在小米于12月向中国家电巨头美的集团投资12.7亿元后,我们预计小米将加 快自行研发的 “智能模块”的布局,并在不同的细分市场中推出新产品(首先将 是智能家居),并以MIUI智能手机为核心打造一致的跨屏幕用户体验。我们相 信公司的战略将与行业未来的物联网(IoT)趋势一致,而国内领先的零组件供 应商将受惠于未来数年的产品周期。 1. China Hardware Technology - Implications of Xiaomi’s Mi Note launch (OVERWEIGHT) 2015/01/16 2. China Hardware Technology - Shenzhen Tech Tour Takeaways (OVERWEIGHT) 2014/10/08 3. China Hardware Technology - iPhone 6, 6 Plus and Apple Watch revealed as expected; Positive to Sunny Optical and Truly, Remain neutral on AAC Tech (OVERWEIGHT) 2014/09/11 估值/ 主要风险 基于舜宇光学在手机镜头模组领域的领导地位,以及在手机/车载镜头等高利 润产品的增长潜力,我们重申公司的买入评级。由于短期内在非声学产品转 型方面的不确定性,我们维持瑞声科技的中性评级。同时,我们对信利国际 维持中性评级,主要原因是由于公司在出货量和利润水平复苏方面的确定性 较低。主要风险包括国内和新兴市场的需求弱于预期,以及零组件短缺等。 重点公司主要财务指标 公司 舜宇光学 瑞声科技 信利国际 股票 代码 评级 2382 HK 2018 HK 732 HK 买入 中性 中性 股价 (港元) 11.56 45.90 2.69 目标价 (港元) 16.70 48.70 3.81 上涨 空间 44% 6% 42% EPS FY14E FY15E 0.57 2.10 0.44 0.79 2.60 0.56 P/E(x) FY14E FY15E 16.2 17.5 6.1 11.7 14.1 4.8 P/B(x) FY14E 2.9 4.6 1.0 ROE(%) FY14E FY15E 18% 27% 16% 21% 27% 17% 资料来源:彭博、招商证券(香港) 彭博终端报告下载: CMHK <GO> 2 Monday, January 19, 2015 Focus charts Figure 2: Xiaomi’s Smart Home solution Figure 1: Spec of Xiaomi Mi Note iPhone 6 Plus Samsung Galaxy Note 4 Xiaomi Note Xiaomi Note Prem Screen 5.5"/ 401PPI 5.7"/ 515PPI 5.7"/ 386PPI 5.7"/ 515PPI Weight 172g 175g 161g 161g CPU A8 dual-core Qualcomm Quad-core 2.7GHz Qualcomm Quad-core 2.5GHz Qualcomm Octa-core 2.0GHz GPU A8 GPU Adreno 420 Adreno 330 Adreno 430 1GB 3GB 3GB LPDDR3 4GB LPDDR4 2915mAh 3000mAh 3000mAh 3090mAh 8MP/1.2MP 16MP/3.7MP 13MP/4MP 13MP/4MP RMB6999 RMB5399 RMB2699 RMB3299 RAM Battery Camera Price Source: Company, CMS(HK) Source: Company, CMS(HK) Figure 3: Xiaomi MIUI Ecosystem Figure 4: Mi Note’s upgraded rear camera (13MP, OIS) Source: Company, CMS(HK) Source: Company, CMS(HK) Figure 5: Peers Comparison Rating Mkt Cap (USD mn) Current Price (local) Target Price (HKD) Upside (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Company Ticker Sunny Optical 2382 HK Buy 1,636 11.56 16.7 44% 16.2 11.7 2.9 2.5 18% 21% AAC Tech 2018 HK Neutral 7,273 45.90 48.7 6% 17.5 14.1 4.6 3.8 27% 27% Truly Intl 732 HK Neutral 1,009 2.69 3.81 42% 6.1 4.8 1.0 0.8 16% 17% Coolpad 2369 HK Neutral 848 1.53 1.55 1% 10.2 9.0 1.9 1.6 20% 19% TCL Comm 2618 HK Buy 1,123 7.13 9.9 39% 8.6 6.5 2.4 1.9 28% 30% ZTE* 763 HK N/A 10,424 18.22 N/A N/A 18.7 15.5 2.0 1.8 11% 12% BYD E* 285 HK N/A 2,413 8.30 N/A N/A 13.4 10.5 1.5 1.4 12% 13% FIH* 2038 HK N/A 3,628 3.61 N/A N/A 22.2 16.1 0.9 0.9 4% 5% Ju Teng* 3336 HK N/A 588 3.92 N/A N/A 5.8 5.1 0.7 0.6 12% 12% Catcher* 2474 TT N/A 25,498 257.50 N/A N/A 12.1 10.8 2.3 2.0 20% 20% Largan* 3008 TT N/A 41,281 2385.00 N/A N/A 18.3 14.7 7.4 5.4 48% 42% FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E * Bloomberg consensus data Source: Company, CMS(HK), Bloomberg To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 3 Monday, January 19, 2015 Investment Ratings Rating Definition OVERWEIGHT Expected to outperform the market index by > 10% over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Expected to outperform or underperform the market index by 10% or less over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Expected to underperform the market index by >10% over the next 12 months Analyst Disclosure The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. 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