The Future Role of Wind in Ireland’s
Energy Mix
Engineers Ireland Conference - 15th May 2015
working in partnership, delivering capacity
Introduction to WPI
• Engineering consultancy currently focussed on on-shore wind
• Expanding into other renewable technologies
• Has grown to 30 staff in two offices
• Full ‘cradle-to-grave’ service offering
• Over 700MW constructed (ROI/NI) in O/E Role
• On track to pass 1000MW in early 2016
• Currently over 570MW of O/E projects
• Leading roles in IWEA/NIRIG Council/Tech Committees
working in partnership, delivering capacity
2
Replacement for Slides 3-6
• Following Paddy T and Colm McC debate yesterday:• 40% RES-E target for 2020
• The majority to be from On-shore wind
• Current support scheme REFIT2 ends in 2017
• Good progress made so far
• The electricity system landscape is changing
working in partnership, delivering capacity
3
Munster’s Role in Wind
• Four of the largest wind developers
–
–
–
–
Brookfield REG (formerly BGE)
Element Power
Enerco
Saorgus
• 51% of ROI windfarms in Munster
– 12% in Kerry!!
• Strong indigenous consultants
– Led by WPI Listowel!!!
• Leading civil & electrical contractors
– Moriarty / TLI / Roadbridge
– Kirby / Imtech Suir / H&MV
• Turbine maintenance facilities
– Enercon / Vestas
working in partnership, delivering capacity
4
Irish On-shore Wind - THEN…
• What did the industry look like in 2000?
 Only utility or small-scale developers
 Relatively modest project sizes (<20MW)
 Poor AER 3 support mechanism
 Immature supply chain
 Emerging turbine technology
 Funding structures immature
 TSO Concerns for SNSP > 600MW
 Individual non-contestable grid connections
 Not considered part of the Energy Mix (≈ 120MW)
 But incredibly positive public perception
working in partnership, delivering capacity
5
Evolution of WTG Technology
Stall controlled turbines
Generator directly connected to grid
Pitch controlled turbines
Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (with converter)
Launch pre-95 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Model
N27 N52 N54 N60
N80alpha
N90beta N100gamma
N117gamma N117delta N131delta
kW
250 800 1000 1300
2500
2500
2500
2400
3000
3000
Rotor(m) 27
52
54
60
80
90
100
117
117
131
Typical Tip
76
100
125
150
200
200
210
Typical Hub
46
60
80
100
141
141
144
Ireland
Landmark orders for turbine types
2002
Kings Mountain
N80
100m tip
2006
Knockawarriga
N90
120m tip
2004
Greenoge
N60
76m tip
working in partnership, delivering capacity
2012
Woodhouse
N100
125m tip
2013
Monaincha Bog
N117
149.5m tip
6
Scale of Foundations
working in partnership, delivering capacity
7
“Simple” Grid Connection
working in partnership, delivering capacity
8
Scale of Grid Complexity
working in partnership, delivering capacity
9
2014 – Wind’s Place in Energy Mix
working in partnership, delivering capacity
10
Irish On-shore Wind - NOW…
• What does the industry look like in 2015?
 A range of mature developers of all sizes
 Multiple projects >80MW
 Suitable REFIT support mechanism
 Experienced supply chain
 Mature turbine technology - WFPS
 Attractive to both debt and equity
 TSO planning for SNSP > 4000MW
 Contestable Cluster grid offers via Gate process
 Now a key part of the Energy Mix (2230MW (ROI) / 627MW (NI))
 But positive public perception being eroded
working in partnership, delivering capacity
11
Irish On-shore Wind In Numbers
• Engineers love numbers (and cranes!!) so…
 224 - The number of Wind Farms on the
island of Ireland.
 2,911 MW - Installed Wind Energy Capacity
on the island of Ireland.
 2514 MW (63% of load) – Max All Island Wind
Generation reached on 7th January 2015.
 17.7% - Electricity generated from wind in ROI
in 2014 (EirGrid) - #2 in Energy Mix.
 2,993,264 t - Potential CO2 reductions (p.a.)
from wind farms on the Island of Ireland.
 3,400 – People employed in the industry
working in partnership, delivering capacity
12
Real Time Operational Limits
working in partnership, delivering capacity
13
“Delivering a Secure Sustainable
Electricity System (DS3)”
working in partnership, delivering capacity
14
Wind Farm Innovation
• Goal is to deliver the WFPS
• Real-time Plant and Climate Data to TSO
• Real-time Operational Control from TSO
• Static Var Compensation
• Embedded Generation (e.g. Dundalk IT)
• Hybrid Solutions
• WTGs plus Sync Comp
• WTGs plus Diesel Gen plus Storage
• WTGs plus Solar PV??
working in partnership, delivering capacity
15
Changes to Irish Electricity System
• The Classic Centralised PowerGen model is dead
• Generation is now distributed and smart
• The Classic Load Profile is Changing
• Impact of Data Centres / Electric Vehicles
• More interconnection (N-S & E-W) - export??
• Future unclear – but old rules will not apply
• Dublin Airport example
working in partnership, delivering capacity
17
State of the Wind Nation May ‘15
• Supply chain pressure
• Uncertainty over future support mechanism
• Uncertainty over wind in I-SEM
• Curtailment levels increasing
• Rates rebanding is a major issue
• Grid delivery is a challenge
• Planning process becoming more difficult
• Wind is becoming political issue
• So as an industry can we deal with these issues?
working in partnership, delivering capacity
18
Change of Delivery Scale
Wind Farm Build Out Rate - ROI
1200
Build Out (MWs)
1000
800
550 MW/annum
600
400
200
192 MW/annum
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
working in partnership, delivering capacity
19
Irish On-shore Wind - FUTURE…
• Where is the industry going post-2015?
 Still on-target to deliver on 2020 targets – and more???
 Wind is not the problem but is a key part of the solution
 Visibility of the post-REFIT 2 landscape is key
 Wind needs to be central to I-SEM design
 Re-engage with the public
 Implement DS3 – once defined!!!!
 Positive impact of Changes to Electricity System
 2030 EU Climate and Energy targets – what will the RES-E
targets be?
 Communication of honest information is critical
working in partnership, delivering capacity
20
Windfacts.ie
• A mobile responsive website targeted at the Irish consumer that is
Clean Clear and Concise
• Objective is to deliver Facts about Irish Wind Energy so the consumer
can see how they benefit
• We are sharing:
How
Wind
Works
Benefits
of wind
Busting
the
Myths
A live
feed of
allisland
wind
working in partnership, delivering capacity
Sign up
to learn
more
21
Thanks for your attention
Thank You
working in partnership, delivering capacity
22