View PDF - Engineers Ireland Annual Conference 2015
The Future Role of Wind in Ireland’s Energy Mix Engineers Ireland Conference - 15th May 2015 working in partnership, delivering capacity Introduction to WPI • Engineering consultancy currently focussed on on-shore wind • Expanding into other renewable technologies • Has grown to 30 staff in two offices • Full ‘cradle-to-grave’ service offering • Over 700MW constructed (ROI/NI) in O/E Role • On track to pass 1000MW in early 2016 • Currently over 570MW of O/E projects • Leading roles in IWEA/NIRIG Council/Tech Committees working in partnership, delivering capacity 2 Replacement for Slides 3-6 • Following Paddy T and Colm McC debate yesterday:• 40% RES-E target for 2020 • The majority to be from On-shore wind • Current support scheme REFIT2 ends in 2017 • Good progress made so far • The electricity system landscape is changing working in partnership, delivering capacity 3 Munster’s Role in Wind • Four of the largest wind developers – – – – Brookfield REG (formerly BGE) Element Power Enerco Saorgus • 51% of ROI windfarms in Munster – 12% in Kerry!! • Strong indigenous consultants – Led by WPI Listowel!!! • Leading civil & electrical contractors – Moriarty / TLI / Roadbridge – Kirby / Imtech Suir / H&MV • Turbine maintenance facilities – Enercon / Vestas working in partnership, delivering capacity 4 Irish On-shore Wind - THEN… • What did the industry look like in 2000? Only utility or small-scale developers Relatively modest project sizes (<20MW) Poor AER 3 support mechanism Immature supply chain Emerging turbine technology Funding structures immature TSO Concerns for SNSP > 600MW Individual non-contestable grid connections Not considered part of the Energy Mix (≈ 120MW) But incredibly positive public perception working in partnership, delivering capacity 5 Evolution of WTG Technology Stall controlled turbines Generator directly connected to grid Pitch controlled turbines Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (with converter) Launch pre-95 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Model N27 N52 N54 N60 N80alpha N90beta N100gamma N117gamma N117delta N131delta kW 250 800 1000 1300 2500 2500 2500 2400 3000 3000 Rotor(m) 27 52 54 60 80 90 100 117 117 131 Typical Tip 76 100 125 150 200 200 210 Typical Hub 46 60 80 100 141 141 144 Ireland Landmark orders for turbine types 2002 Kings Mountain N80 100m tip 2006 Knockawarriga N90 120m tip 2004 Greenoge N60 76m tip working in partnership, delivering capacity 2012 Woodhouse N100 125m tip 2013 Monaincha Bog N117 149.5m tip 6 Scale of Foundations working in partnership, delivering capacity 7 “Simple” Grid Connection working in partnership, delivering capacity 8 Scale of Grid Complexity working in partnership, delivering capacity 9 2014 – Wind’s Place in Energy Mix working in partnership, delivering capacity 10 Irish On-shore Wind - NOW… • What does the industry look like in 2015? A range of mature developers of all sizes Multiple projects >80MW Suitable REFIT support mechanism Experienced supply chain Mature turbine technology - WFPS Attractive to both debt and equity TSO planning for SNSP > 4000MW Contestable Cluster grid offers via Gate process Now a key part of the Energy Mix (2230MW (ROI) / 627MW (NI)) But positive public perception being eroded working in partnership, delivering capacity 11 Irish On-shore Wind In Numbers • Engineers love numbers (and cranes!!) so… 224 - The number of Wind Farms on the island of Ireland. 2,911 MW - Installed Wind Energy Capacity on the island of Ireland. 2514 MW (63% of load) – Max All Island Wind Generation reached on 7th January 2015. 17.7% - Electricity generated from wind in ROI in 2014 (EirGrid) - #2 in Energy Mix. 2,993,264 t - Potential CO2 reductions (p.a.) from wind farms on the Island of Ireland. 3,400 – People employed in the industry working in partnership, delivering capacity 12 Real Time Operational Limits working in partnership, delivering capacity 13 “Delivering a Secure Sustainable Electricity System (DS3)” working in partnership, delivering capacity 14 Wind Farm Innovation • Goal is to deliver the WFPS • Real-time Plant and Climate Data to TSO • Real-time Operational Control from TSO • Static Var Compensation • Embedded Generation (e.g. Dundalk IT) • Hybrid Solutions • WTGs plus Sync Comp • WTGs plus Diesel Gen plus Storage • WTGs plus Solar PV?? working in partnership, delivering capacity 15 Changes to Irish Electricity System • The Classic Centralised PowerGen model is dead • Generation is now distributed and smart • The Classic Load Profile is Changing • Impact of Data Centres / Electric Vehicles • More interconnection (N-S & E-W) - export?? • Future unclear – but old rules will not apply • Dublin Airport example working in partnership, delivering capacity 17 State of the Wind Nation May ‘15 • Supply chain pressure • Uncertainty over future support mechanism • Uncertainty over wind in I-SEM • Curtailment levels increasing • Rates rebanding is a major issue • Grid delivery is a challenge • Planning process becoming more difficult • Wind is becoming political issue • So as an industry can we deal with these issues? working in partnership, delivering capacity 18 Change of Delivery Scale Wind Farm Build Out Rate - ROI 1200 Build Out (MWs) 1000 800 550 MW/annum 600 400 200 192 MW/annum 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year working in partnership, delivering capacity 19 Irish On-shore Wind - FUTURE… • Where is the industry going post-2015? Still on-target to deliver on 2020 targets – and more??? Wind is not the problem but is a key part of the solution Visibility of the post-REFIT 2 landscape is key Wind needs to be central to I-SEM design Re-engage with the public Implement DS3 – once defined!!!! Positive impact of Changes to Electricity System 2030 EU Climate and Energy targets – what will the RES-E targets be? Communication of honest information is critical working in partnership, delivering capacity 20 Windfacts.ie • A mobile responsive website targeted at the Irish consumer that is Clean Clear and Concise • Objective is to deliver Facts about Irish Wind Energy so the consumer can see how they benefit • We are sharing: How Wind Works Benefits of wind Busting the Myths A live feed of allisland wind working in partnership, delivering capacity Sign up to learn more 21 Thanks for your attention Thank You working in partnership, delivering capacity 22
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